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Politics Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

Poles & Ukrainians used to live together in one country, the civil war which started in 1648 divided us for centuries and caused such destruction of the land that the Commonwealth (Rzeczpospolita) never again regained its former power and ended up swallowed by Russia, Prussia and Austria in 1795. There is a good historical movie about those events, it was a joint Polish-Ukrainian production in 1999:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZWvzmJQ6oc

 
Silesian said:
What a strange world. For more than 2 years we had a pandemic that claimed between 5 and 6 million lives on the entire planet of 7 billion+/-. The in some areas name calling people mRNA anti- vaxxer and had protests to mandated lockdowns, mandated facemasks, mandated mRNA vaccines passports(not all countries or states like Sweden Texas Florida)Now we have so many people crossing U S southern border refugees and so many crossing Ukraine border refugees, but no word on vaccine status, QR passport, face mask, social distancing and or mutated covid PCR testing.
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My goodness this is war! People with small children flied for terror are waiting for hours and hours at a border post towards Poland with two counters... And then you want to ask them what is your QR code?....if you don't have one, sorry then go back? Think about that.
 
Tomenable said:
Another Russian tank getting fried - https://streamable.com/cvjh8z
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CNN:

"They are having problems," a NATO official said of the Russian forces, pointing to the alliance's latest intelligence. "They lack diesel, they are proceeding way too slow and morale is obviously an issue."

Asked whether the Russians are likely to intensify their efforts, the official said they have no choice. "They are way behind schedule," the official said. "This is getting out of hand for them, every additional day is very painful."
 
^^^
Ukrainians must have been preparing for this war during the last 8 years (they had nothing better to do while living in constant fear & uncertainty).

Some more videos:

Abandoned Russian tank and jeep - https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1497887205406162946

Burning Russian vehicles near Sumy - https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1497884749121077255

Destroyed Russian jeep in Kharkiv - https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1497885852319551489

Why aren't the Russians publishing similar videos about their great victories, hmmm?
 
Malaparte said:
the idea that Putin is a dictator supported by a small entourage is laughable. First, he is not a dictator. He was lasted elected by a 56% vote. Dictators are not so elected. He has great powers, but is in fact constrained by the massive bureaucracy that operates beneath him. Second, the decision to invade Ukraine is the result of some 20 years of close, deliberate planning throughout the Russian state. They have all their ducks in a row.
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when you monopolise the official media and when you incarcerate your most important opponents when elections are due, it's not so difficult to get a 56 % vote
that's not my idea of democracy

it seems some oligarchs have ousted their concerns about what Putin is doing now, in a discrete way of course
they also feel that the endresult will not be favourable to their 'bussiness'
it looks like some of the oligarchs are loosing grip and Putin gets more influenced military hardliners who are acting less rational
 
bigsnake49 said:
I see a lot of partisan attacks on Biden. Save them for the appropriate thread. Keep this thread for Ukraine and their heroic defense of their country. I cheer for you, Ukrainian heroes!

Now this is from New York post so TFWIW but it shows a tank swerve to drive over a private car and then backing over it again:

https://nypost.com/2022/02/25/russian-tank-maliciously-crushes-civilian-car-with-driver-inside/

Like I said, the Russians are winning the PR war:lol2:.
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Well, perhaps you should chide those who still have Trump derangement syndrome to do the same, and I say that as someone who never supported him.

Fair is fair.
 
Remember that Hitler also won democratic elections.
 
firetown said:
I am really sick and tired of these crazy populations enabling dictators based on national pride and then acting like victims. Russia hopefully will now be put in its place for good after spreading nothing but misery for many decades.
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There's a great scene in Band of Brothers where one of the G.I.s is looking at 300,000 surrendering Germans marching in formation after Easy Company has lost 3/4 of its men fighting them and he's seen unimaginable horror, and he just screams at them, "You servile scum", and "What are we doing here?", in effect saying this is your fault, your stupidity, your belief in the words of a madman have dragged us from our homes and killed so many of the best of us.

It was riveting as performed and shot, but most of all because it's so true. How many times have people all over the world enabled dictators and dragged other countries into war?
 
Northener said:
CNN:

"They are having problems," a NATO official said of the Russian forces, pointing to the alliance's latest intelligence. "They lack diesel, they are proceeding way too slow and morale is obviously an issue."
Asked whether the Russians are likely to intensify their efforts, the official said they have no choice. "They are way behind schedule," the official said. "This is getting out of hand for them, every additional day is very painful."
Click to expand...

they have diesel, but the Ukrainian forces managed to break the line in the convoy of tanks nearing Kiev from the northwest
all the tanks in the first half of this convoy fell without diesel

the first wave of the Russian invasion won't be able to enter large parts of Kiev, nor to conquer large parts of Ukraine,
but uptill now, only 50 % of the Russian army has entered Ukraine
the rest awaits further orders along the borders

it's clear things are not going as Putin had hoped
but it's not over yet ..
 
Malaparte said:
@Palermo -- Although I have not made anywhere near the number or quality of contributions that you make to this forum (in fact when you first appeared here, I complimented you on the high quality of your contributions), I've frequented this site for about 4, maybe 5 years now. That's quite a bit of time to invest pretending to be half Calabrian, albeit most of my "time" has been silent reading of threads.

I consider myself a patriot & a nationalist, which also means anti-globalist & anti-imperialist. My practical politics lean toward populism, but as a theoretical matter I recognize the importance of a benevolent & far-sighted elite. I voted for Obama in 2008, Trump in 2016, and abstained from voting in all other presidential elections. In terms of international politics, I am a great believer in balance-of-power realism. This is why I despair of our policy with regard to Russia, even if the nationalist in me is sympathetic to Ukrainian aspirations for self-determination and sovereignty.
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You're a phoney, first and foremost, using a sock account. Did you think you could fool me? Members can't see what I can see.

Second, you sound like all those Russian plants on twitter. Did the U.S. also incite all the Eastern Bloc countries and beg them to join NATO? Or was it the other way around? If Putin somehow pulls if off in Ukraine and goes after the Baltic countries next, should NATO fulfill their obligations or are treaties worthless?
 
Malaparte said:
Document:Nyet means Nyet

[TABLE="width: 624"]
[TR]
[TD]February 2008 classified diplomatic cable from US ambassador to Russia William J Burns to the State Department about how Russia views NATO involvement in Ukraine[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

​
diplomatic communication by William J Burns dated 2008/02/01
Subjects: Ukraine, NATO, Russia, The Great Game, Ukraine coup 2014
Example of: Diplomatic communication
Source: Wikileaks (Link)

Text highlighting by Wikispooks

Wikispooks Comment
This cable is solid evidence that the US was well aware of the potential consequences of western interference in Ukraine. The likelihood of civil war is clearly spelled out and gives the lie to any and all expressions of surprise and fauz-outrage by western leaders at the course of events since November 2013

Nyet means Nyet: Russia's NATO enlargement red lines
Cable: 08MOSCOW265_a

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2018
TAGS: PREL, NATO, UP, RS
SUBJECT: NYET MEANS NYET: RUSSIA'S NATO ENLARGEMENT
REDLINES

Classified By: Ambassador William J. Burns. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

1. (C) Summary. Following a muted first reaction to
Ukraine's intent to seek a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP)
at the Bucharest summit (ref A), Foreign Minister Lavrov and
other senior officials have reiterated strong opposition,
stressing that Russia would view further eastward expansion
as a potential military threat. NATO enlargement,
particularly to Ukraine, remains "an emotional and neuralgic"
issue for Russia, but strategic policy considerations also
underlie strong opposition to NATO membership for Ukraine and
Georgia. In Ukraine, these include fears that the issue
could potentially split the country in two, leading to
violence or even, some claim, civil war, which would force
Russia to decide whether to intervene. Additionally, the GOR
and experts continue to claim that Ukrainian NATO membership
would have a major impact on Russia's defense industry,
Russian-Ukrainian family connections, and bilateral relations
generally. In Georgia, the GOR fears continued instability
and "provocative acts" in the separatist regions. End
summary.

MFA: NATO Enlargement "Potential Military Threat to Russia"
--------------------------------------------- --------------

2. (U) During his annual review of Russia's foreign policy
January 22-23 (ref B), Foreign Minister Lavrov stressed that
Russia had to view continued eastward expansion of NATO,
particularly to Ukraine and Georgia, as a potential military
threat. While Russia might believe statements from the West
that NATO was not directed against Russia, when one looked at
recent military activities in NATO countries (establishment
of U.S. forward operating locations, etc. they had to be
evaluated not by stated intentions but by potential. Lavrov
stressed that maintaining Russia's "sphere of influence" in
the neighborhood was anachronistic, and acknowledged that the
U.S. and Europe had "legitimate interests" in the region.
But, he argued, while countries were free to make their own
decisions about their security and which political-military
structures to join, they needed to keep in mind the impact on
their neighbors.

3. (U) Lavrov emphasized that Russia was convinced that
enlargement was not based on security reasons, but was a
legacy of the Cold War. He disputed arguments that NATO was
an appropriate mechanism for helping to strengthen democratic
governments. He said that Russia understood that NATO was in
search of a new mission, but there was a growing tendency for
new members to do and say whatever they wanted simply because
they were under the NATO umbrella (e.g. attempts of some new
member countries to "rewrite history and glorify fascists").

4. (U) During a press briefing January 22 in response to a
question about Ukraine's request for a MAP, the MFA said "a
radical new expansion of NATO may bring about a serious
political-military shift that will inevitably affect the
security interests of Russia." The spokesman went on to
stress that Russia was bound with Ukraine by bilateral
obligations set forth in the 1997 Treaty on Friendship,
Cooperation and Partnership in which both parties undertook
to "refrain from participation in or support of any actions
capable of prejudicing the security of the other Side." The
spokesman noted that Ukraine's "likely integration into NATO
would seriously complicate the many-sided Russian-Ukrainian
relations," and that Russia would "have to take appropriate
measures." The spokesman added that "one has the impression
that the present Ukrainian leadership regards rapprochement
with NATO largely as an alternative to good-neighborly ties
with the Russian Federation."

Russian Opposition Neuralgic and Concrete
-----------------------------------------

5. (C) Ukraine and Georgia's NATO aspirations not only touch
a raw nerve in Russia, they engender serious concerns about
the consequences for stability in the region. Not only does
Russia perceive encirclement, and efforts to undermine
Russia's influence in the region, but it also fears
unpredictable and uncontrolled consequences which would
seriously affect Russian security interests. Experts tell us
that RUSSIA is particularly worried that the strong divisions
in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the
ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a
major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war. In
that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to
intervene; a decision Russia does not want to have to face.

6. (C) Dmitriy Trenin, Deputy Director of the Carnegie
Moscow Center, expressed concern that Ukraine was, in the
long-term, the most potentially destabilizing factor in
U.S.-Russian relations, given the level of emotion and
neuralgia triggered by its quest for NATO membership. The
letter requesting MAP consideration had come as a "bad
surprise" to Russian officials, who calculated that Ukraine's
NATO aspirations were safely on the backburner. With its
public letter, the issue had been "sharpened." Because
membership remained divisive in Ukrainian domestic politics,
it created an opening for Russian intervention. Trenin
expressed concern that elements within the Russian
establishment would be encouraged to meddle, stimulating U.S.
overt encouragement of opposing political forces, and leaving
the U.S. and Russia in a classic confrontational posture.
The irony, Trenin professed, was that Ukraine's membership
would defang NATO, but neither the Russian public nor elite
opinion was ready for that argument. Ukraine's gradual shift
towards the West was one thing, its preemptive status as a de
jure U.S. military ally another. Trenin cautioned strongly
against letting an internal Ukrainian fight for power, where
MAP was merely a lever in domestic politics, further
complicate U.S.-Russian relations now.

7. (C) Another issue driving Russian opposition to Ukrainian
membership is the significant defense industry cooperation
the two countries share, including a number of plants where
Russian weapons are made. While efforts are underway to shut
down or move most of these plants to Russia, and to move the
Black Sea fleet from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk earlier than
the 2017 deadline, the GOR has made clear that Ukraine's
joining NATO would require Russia to make major (costly)
changes to its defense industrial cooperation.

8. (C) Similarly, the GOR and experts note that there would
also be a significant impact on Russian-Ukrainian economic
and labor relations, including the effect on thousands of
Ukrainians living and working in Russia and vice versa, due
to the necessity of imposing a new visa regime. This,
Aleksandr Konovalov, Director of the Institute for Strategic
Assessment, argued, would become a boiling cauldron of anger
and resentment among the local population.

9. (C) With respect to Georgia, most experts said that while
not as neuralgic to Russia as Ukraine, the GOR viewed the
situation there as too unstable to withstand the divisiveness
NATO membership could cause. Aleksey Arbatov, Deputy
Director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, argued that Georgia's
NATO aspirations were simply a way to solve its problems in
Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and warned that Russia would be
put in a difficult situation were that to ensue.

Russia's Response
-----------------

10. (C) The GOR has made it clear that it would have to
"seriously review" its entire relationship with Ukraine and
Georgia in the event of NATO inviting them to join. This
could include major impacts on energy, economic, and
political-military engagement, with possible repercussions
throughout the region and into Central and Western Europe.
Russia would also likely revisit its own relationship with
the Alliance and activities in the NATO-Russia Council, and
consider further actions in the arms control arena, including
the possibility of complete withdrawal from the CFE and INF
Treaties, and more direct threats against U.S. missile
defense plans.

11. (C) Isabelle Francois, Director of the NATO Information
Office in Moscow (protect), said she believed that Russia had
accepted that Ukraine and Georgia would eventually join NATO
and was engaged in long-term planning to reconfigure its
relations with both countries, and with the Alliance.
However, Russia was not yet ready to deal with the
consequences of further NATO enlargement to its south. She
added that while Russia liked the cooperation with NATO in
the NATO-Russia Council, Russia would feel it necessary to
insist on recasting the NATO-Russia relationship, if not
withdraw completely from the NRC, in the event of Ukraine and
Georgia joining NATO.

Comment
-------

12. (C) Russia's opposition to NATO membership for Ukraine
and Georgia is both emotional and based on perceived
strategic concerns about the impact on Russia's interests in
the region. It is also politically popular to paint the U.S.
and NATO as Russia's adversaries and to use NATO's outreach
to Ukraine and Georgia as a means of generating support from
Russian nationalists. While Russian opposition to the first
round of NATO enlargement in the mid-1990's was strong,
Russia now feels itself able to respond more forcefully to
what it perceives as actions contrary to its national
interests.
BURNS

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Read it again. The cable is about how RUSSIA would view the matter, and that RUSSIA feared civil war. The only people living on Ukrainian soil who didn't want to be part of the west were and are the Russians who moved into those two break away provinces on Russia's border.

All of that spiel is Russia trying to deter the U.S. and other NATO countries from supporting Ukraine.

Perhaps you're unaware, but all of the Eastern Bloc countries SOUGHT and pleaded for NATO status out of fear of being taken over by Russia again. If you think they were wrong to do so, and NATO was wrong to accept them, and they should rightfully all be happy to be controlled by Russia again you should volunteer to go live in Russia yourself to show them they have nothing to fear from the "new order" you think is best for them and the rest of Europe.
 
Malaparte said:
the idea that Putin is a dictator supported by a small entourage is laughable. First, he is not a dictator. He was lasted elected by a 56% vote. Dictators are not so elected. He has great powers, but is in fact constrained by the massive bureaucracy that operates beneath him. Second, the decision to invade Ukraine is the result of some 20 years of close, deliberate planning throughout the Russian state. They have all their ducks in a row.
Click to expand...

Are you really naive enough to believe that elections in Russia are legit?

Russia may ultimately prevail, but tanks running out of gas doesn't sound like good logistics, the failure to completely dominate the airspace is inexplicable, and even more inexplicable is that they haven't managed to take out communications and power in the Ukraine through cyber warfare.

Guess they needed more than 20 years, or perhaps it's all just been Potemkin houses again, and nothing they build or plan actually works.
 
Angela said:
... and even more inexplicable is that they haven't managed to take out communications and power in the Ukraine through cyber warfare.
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I think the Russians don't want to cut the whole Ukraine from power as of now, especially in the winter. They still don't use the most extreme means they could.
 
^^You're right; that may be a consideration. Probably for the same reason they're not reducing all the cities to rubble, as they did in Chechnya.

However, why is twitter still working, or other internet apps? The ability of the Ukrainians to document their view of the war not only keeps up their morale, but presents these horrible images to the rest of the world.

Also, in any invasion wouldn't any country with the supposed cyber warfare capabilities of Russia disrupt the Ukrainian communications systems? If they can't speak to each other it destroys their command and control.
 
Angela said:
However, why is twitter still working, or other internet apps? The ability of the Ukrainians to document their view of the war not only keeps up their morale, but presents these horrible images to the rest of the world.
Click to expand...

They try to using it themselves and its better to not even trying than trying and failing. Actually, most states have troubles suppressing such channels. The only state which is more or less capable of doing so is China with its own citizens. All the others, this is what you saw with Trump and Covid dissidents or Wikileaks, can be suppressed, but hardly knocked out that easily.
 
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