Your interpretation has some good points. On the other side, one has also to look at the past choices turkey has made in the recent history.
They managed to stay out of WW2 and out of the cold war. I suppose they will just follow the same path without picking parts - and they do have quite a good track of records of avoiding burning scenarios.
Yet there are things that are very unclear to me, like the increased islamisation. This erdogan is pretty unpredictable in his next moves.
Turkey was at cold war, she a member of expanded NATO from 51 if remember correct.
as for WW2 they follow Kemal's system, and they had no choice,
remember the Sykes-Piquot treaty was not performed as suppossed to be even 1940's
and 2-3 decades from Arab revolt, and before 1948 when England and France still were Allies of Arabs, and had troops all over Arab lands and colonies.
it was suicide for Turkey to enter war either as axis power,
since their traditional ally was Deutschland and Austria at WW1,
it was easier for them to enter with allies, but that ment surely an attack to Bulgaria and Romania and alliance with Greece,
so Kemalists that ruled Turkey that time follow the path of neutrality.
I agree that Erdogan might be unpredicted,
but Turkey of Kemalists was predicted,
they wouldn't even attack Cyprus, if Kissinger did not exist.
the big problem of Turkey was around Menteres times, and around 1973 if remember correct,
the epigonoi of Kemal expressed mainly by generals who only got richer and richer,
by time they manage to narrow-weaken their power and politicians took the upper hand
but still at Turkey there are paramilitary powers which Erdogan can not control
and has their annexation.
the opponents of Kemal have big right/correct in one thing,
Kemal trusted too much the army, so he gave enormous power to generals
it needed Menteres to start a new policy to open economy,
but he ended 'hunged',
the more the limited the power of generals, the more Turkey's economy raised,
so the presidential democracy to Turkey, is not obvious how it will work.
lets hope the unpredicted Erdogan as you name him,and I agree, surprises us peacefully, and not with a war.
I am afraid his mania for glory. not his love for power and Ottoman Turkey.
on the other hand if Erdogan manages to pass the death penalty,
then we have other situations,
combining this with the who knows millions of Turks who were investigated or went to jail, only for a possiblity of being suspicious with the military action against him,
is not making Erdogan very poppular,
how come a person who works at an office at electric corporation for example, or an elementary teacher be connected to the military action... only he knows,
Stalin in order to rule and succed invented traitors and enemies,
I do not know, and I can not see more,
the man is hero since he escape the military action, the man is speaking what the people want to hear, and the man is sending to prison and investigations millions like the Jundas or the Communist in Russia of Stalin,
he is a phainomenon, don't you think?
he manage to give pride and hope to the most poor and insignificant Turk
and same time he prisons the other poor and insignificant Turk