Genetic study A genetic history of the Balkans from Roman frontier to Slavic migrations

The Slavic autosomal input and ydna are fairly similar, it looks like Slavs settled initially in their own groups and then were assimilated over time. Also I doubt it was admixed South Slavs that moved to Albania but pure Slavs, if it was South Slavs then it means some other lines like e-v13, i1, j2b l283, r-z2103 also entered Albania with these South Slavs

Slavic Y-DNA is approx. 15%, according to the study.

Assuming South Slavs entered Albania with 80% Slavic Y-DNA lineages, an arbitrarily chosen percentage since no official data exists (and South Slavic modern distribution includes some recent Albanian lineages turned Serbian/Montenegrin) implies that an additional 3.75% Albanian Y-DNA are reintroduced Balkanic lineages, for a total of 18.75% South Slavic Y-DNA lineages.

18.75 x 0.55-0.7= 10.3125% to 13.125% purely Slavic ancestry from males /2 = 5.15% to 6.56% total Slavic autosomal contribution from South Slavic men.

If Slavic ancestry in Albanians is, say, 25% total autosomal, doesn't that imply most Slavic ancestry came from women?

This is all assuming that Slavs entered as South Slavs, as the study notes.

If the study is perhaps wrong as @Kari mentioned, and they came in as pure Slavs, 15% Y-DNA still is only 7.5% Slavic autosomal (assuming 1:1 boy/girl ratio), so to get 25% total Slavic autosomal means 35% of Albanian women lineages came from a Slavic woman.

This is all implying 1:1 ratio of boys/girls. It's also possible sons to Slavic men were killed off more often, while daughters to Slavic men survived far more, so extrapolating from Y-DNA may not even be accurate unless these dozens of variables are all accounted for...

Basically, most scenarios, whether South Slav or pure Slav invaders, favour a larger Slavic female source in Albanians.

Again, this is my amatuer understanding.
 
Slavic Y-DNA is approx. 15%, according to the study.

Assuming South Slavs entered Albania with 80% Slavic Y-DNA lineages, an arbitrarily chosen percentage since no official data exists (and South Slavic modern distribution includes some recent Albanian lineages turned Serbian/Montenegrin) implies that an additional 3.75% Albanian Y-DNA are reintroduced Balkanic lineages, for a total of 18.75% South Slavic Y-DNA lineages.

18.75 x 0.55-0.7= 10.3125% to 13.125% purely Slavic ancestry from males /2 = 5.15% to 6.56% total Slavic autosomal contribution from South Slavic men.

If Slavic ancestry in Albanians is, say, 25% total autosomal, doesn't that imply most Slavic ancestry came from women?

This is all assuming that Slavs entered as South Slavs, as the study notes.

If the study is perhaps wrong as @Kari mentioned, and they came in as pure Slavs, 15% Y-DNA still is only 7.5% Slavic autosomal (assuming 1:1 boy/girl ratio), so to get 25% total Slavic autosomal means 35% of Albanian women lineages came from a Slavic woman.

This is all implying 1:1 ratio of boys/girls. It's also possible sons to Slavic men were killed off more often, while daughters to Slavic men survived far more, so extrapolating from Y-DNA may not even be accurate unless these dozens of variables are all accounted for...

Basically, most scenarios, whether South Slav or pure Slav invaders, favour a larger Slavic female source in Albanians.

Again, this is my amatuer understanding.

First we need to know how much Slavic autosomal exactly is present in Albanians, the study isn't clear. For example If it's 20% of PURE Slavic (not mixed South Slavic) then that isn't too far off the ydna estimates
 
First we need to know how much Slavic autosomal exactly is present in Albanians, the study isn't clear. For example If it's 20% of PURE Slavic (not mixed South Slavic) then that isn't too far off the ydna estimates
Assessing "pure" Slavic autosomal and Slavic MtDNA in both high and low R1a/I2 Albanian regions seems to me the best way in knowing how Slavic DNA entered the gene pool-- each region had their own evolution/historical pressures.

But, then we would have to know the ratio of male/females born (Slavic males could have produced more or less daughters in diff regions), baseline genetic difference between Gheg and Tosk (since the latter has more R1a/I2 but less autosomal Baltic), extrapolate what percentage of Balto-Slavic ancestry Tosks would have without elevated Southern influence diluting it, see what percentage of Gheg Albanian ancestry that is Northern may have come from a combination of Germanics and more Northern Paleo-Balkanics inflating Slavic ancestry higher than it actually is, accounting for that same miniscule pull in Tosks, etc.

There's so many unimaginable variables here that I often laugh at people using G25 models like it's a Tetris game: Fill in the blank with squares or rectangles! Get a percentage, and voila!

Assessing all these variables requires graduate level math work that nobody here can do, or is willing to learn.

At best, we can all just make educated/intuitive guesses.
 
I gave the link to the bam file of
Individual I15499 ( the east african e-m78>v32 dude from pirivoj viminacium)
to theytree site
I see they uploaded him (y)


from the paper :
View attachment 14830
interesting, a Nubian or Ethiopian mercenary I guess?
 
And I agree completely with you regarding shared segments etc but I personally don't see how that is related to these calculators made by armchair scientists , in fact, IBD sharing does not even support some of the admixture that these calculators give neither does mtdna or ydna . I just think it's weird how people take these calculators serious, sometimes I am starting to wonder about people ....
So, you think that putting wheels to these scientists armchairs would help them to do better work? Globetrotter scientists? LOL
Happy new year to all of yours, nevertheless
 
interesting, a Nubian or Ethiopian mercenary I guess?

yes can also be a somalian
we don't have his g25 values
but we do have his k12b values :
I15499,0,0,11.61,0,0,0,0,47.69,30.48,0,0,10.22
and if you simulate his k12b values to g25

g25 k105 calculator
the closest population:
are somalians
Distance to:I15499
0.08176407Somalia
0.09432314Ethiopia
0.10041414Eritrea
0.11518760Sudan
0.18723626Mauritania
0.23840608Dominican_Republic
0.25907759Kenya
0.26570612Algeria
0.29624942Morocco
0.30271365Libya
0.31004834Madagascar
0.31304256Tunisia
0.35526957Oman
0.36532912Egypt
0.37429556Yemen
0.37519190Saudi_Arabia
0.37812347Jordanian:
0.38145481Iraqi:
0.38154350Palestinian:
0.38627680United_Arab_Emirates
0.38815177Syrian:
0.39582186Nigeria
0.39631634Mali
0.40303354Gambia
0.40866330Angola
 
yes can also be a somalian
we don't have his g25 values
but we do have his k12b values :
I15499,0,0,11.61,0,0,0,0,47.69,30.48,0,0,10.22
and if you simulate his k12b values to g25

g25 k105 calculator
the closest population:
are somalians
Distance to:I15499
0.08176407Somalia
0.09432314Ethiopia
0.10041414Eritrea
0.11518760Sudan
0.18723626Mauritania
0.23840608Dominican_Republic
0.25907759Kenya
0.26570612Algeria
0.29624942Morocco
0.30271365Libya
0.31004834Madagascar
0.31304256Tunisia
0.35526957Oman
0.36532912Egypt
0.37429556Yemen
0.37519190Saudi_Arabia
0.37812347Jordanian:
0.38145481Iraqi:
0.38154350Palestinian:
0.38627680United_Arab_Emirates
0.38815177Syrian:
0.39582186Nigeria
0.39631634Mali
0.40303354Gambia
0.40866330Angola
thx for sharing bro,
btw, in the same journal, I saw a sample I15526 which is E-z841 yet from Serbia, I'm curious how he fits (I mean what is the closest population he scores):sneaky:
 
thx for sharing bro,
btw, in the same journal, I saw a sample I15526 which is E-z841 yet from Serbia, I'm curious how he fits (I mean what is the closest population he scores):sneaky:


he is in better quality
so we have actual real g25 values from davidski ;)
both for him and the other e-m123 individual I15502 from this paper :


Serbia_ViminaciumGrobalja:I15526,0.111547,0.160454,-0.03017,-0.069445,0.003077,-0.02259,-0.0094,0.006,-0.008999,0.021504,-0.010555,0.001349,-0.00773,0.003441,-0.011129,0.004773,0.002217,-0.000507,0.001508,-0.001876,-0.014974,0.007172,0.002588,-0.007471,-0.003473

Serbia_ViminaciumPirivoj:I15502,0.101303,0.140143,-0.044877,-0.052972,-0.003385,-0.027052,0.00282,-0.000923,-0.024338,0.009841,0.001624,0.004196,-0.011744,0.005367,-0.02158,-0.011933,-0.000782,-0.002914,0.000628,-0.005378,-0.000749,-0.003833,-0.002465,-0.006627,-0.009101


g25 values in k105 calculator:
Distance to:Serbia_ViminaciumGrobalja:I15526
0.03801843Cyprus
0.05440786Israel
0.05586076Greece
0.05845930Lebanon
0.06790995Armenia
0.07514251Italy
0.08294236Syrian:
0.08650481Albania
0.09191617Palestinian:
0.09636609North_Macedonia
0.09749383Turkey
0.09878690Georgia
0.10001023Egypt
0.10102031Jordanian:
0.10399675Azerbaijan
0.10448102Iraqi:
0.10933179Bulgaria
0.11268839Romania
0.11618854Portugal
0.11795374Iran
0.11877473Switzerland
0.12316498Spain
0.12452817Montenegro
0.12495025Serbia
0.12564091United_Arab_Emirates


Distance to:Serbia_ViminaciumPirivoj:I15502
0.03924521Cyprus
0.04423721Armenia
0.05331550Lebanon
0.05922625Israel
0.05983194Greece
0.06924003Georgia
0.07425980Syrian:
0.07510818Turkey
0.07621299Azerbaijan
0.08569524Italy
0.09044451Albania
0.09143013Palestinian:
0.09165554Iraqi:
0.09182613Iran
0.09661455Egypt
0.10080662North_Macedonia
0.10252113Jordanian:
0.11080896Bulgaria
0.11462691Romania
0.12017468United_Arab_Emirates
0.12608778Switzerland
0.12728490Serbia
0.12747845Montenegro
0.12760695Portugal
0.12784953Oman


p.s
so they cluster with cyprus ( huge east med element)
they were probably roman auxiliary soldiers , traders or roman administrators who
came to viminacium from the east ( maybe from somewhere in anatolia)
 
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he is in better quality
so we have actual real g25 values from davidski ;)
both for him and the other e-m123 individual I15502 from this paper :


Serbia_ViminaciumGrobalja:I15526,0.111547,0.160454,-0.03017,-0.069445,0.003077,-0.02259,-0.0094,0.006,-0.008999,0.021504,-0.010555,0.001349,-0.00773,0.003441,-0.011129,0.004773,0.002217,-0.000507,0.001508,-0.001876,-0.014974,0.007172,0.002588,-0.007471,-0.003473

Serbia_ViminaciumPirivoj:I15502,0.101303,0.140143,-0.044877,-0.052972,-0.003385,-0.027052,0.00282,-0.000923,-0.024338,0.009841,0.001624,0.004196,-0.011744,0.005367,-0.02158,-0.011933,-0.000782,-0.002914,0.000628,-0.005378,-0.000749,-0.003833,-0.002465,-0.006627,-0.009101


g25 values in k105 calculator:
Distance to:Serbia_ViminaciumGrobalja:I15526
0.03801843Cyprus
0.05440786Israel
0.05586076Greece
0.05845930Lebanon
0.06790995Armenia
0.07514251Italy
0.08294236Syrian:
0.08650481Albania
0.09191617Palestinian:
0.09636609North_Macedonia
0.09749383Turkey
0.09878690Georgia
0.10001023Egypt
0.10102031Jordanian:
0.10399675Azerbaijan
0.10448102Iraqi:
0.10933179Bulgaria
0.11268839Romania
0.11618854Portugal
0.11795374Iran
0.11877473Switzerland
0.12316498Spain
0.12452817Montenegro
0.12495025Serbia
0.12564091United_Arab_Emirates


Distance to:Serbia_ViminaciumPirivoj:I15502
0.03924521Cyprus
0.04423721Armenia
0.05331550Lebanon
0.05922625Israel
0.05983194Greece
0.06924003Georgia
0.07425980Syrian:
0.07510818Turkey
0.07621299Azerbaijan
0.08569524Italy
0.09044451Albania
0.09143013Palestinian:
0.09165554Iraqi:
0.09182613Iran
0.09661455Egypt
0.10080662North_Macedonia
0.10252113Jordanian:
0.11080896Bulgaria
0.11462691Romania
0.12017468United_Arab_Emirates
0.12608778Switzerland
0.12728490Serbia
0.12747845Montenegro
0.12760695Portugal
0.12784953Oman


p.s
so they cluster with cyprus ( huge east med element)
they were probably roman auxiliary soldiers , traders or roman administrators who
came to viminacium from the east ( maybe from somewhere in anatolia)
Distance to:Serbia_ViminaciumPirivoj:I15502
0.03163298Greek_Cappadocia
0.03229132Greek_Central_Anatolia
0.03721119Greek_Dodecanese_Rhodes
0.04014985Greek_Trabzon
0.04026291Greek_Dodecanese
0.04026525Cypriot
0.04047413Armenian_Gesaria
0.04255848Armenian_Aintab
0.04269414Greek_Kos
0.04311043Armenian_Ararat
0.04327664Turkish_Trabzon
0.04353465Armenian_Urfa
0.04542333Armenian_Erzurum
0.04800653Greek_Crete
0.04823452Greek_Crete_Heraklion
0.04871487Armenian_Syunik
0.04880979Armenian_Parspatunik
0.04888886Syrian_Jew
0.04943679Greek_Crete_Lasithi
0.04996246Georgian_Meskheti
0.05080002Druze
0.05091853Lebanese_Druze
0.05102703Armenian_Gurin
0.05179836Turkish_Erzurum
0.05193885Greek_Cyclades_Amorgos


Distance to:Serbia_ViminaciumGrobalja:I15526
0.03526918Greek_Kos
0.03526927Cypriot
0.03638499Greek_Dodecanese_Rhodes
0.03712493Greek_Dodecanese
0.04298247Greek_Cyclades_Amorgos
0.04335661Greek_Central_Anatolia
0.04405558Romaniote_Jew
0.04418583Greek_Crete
0.04460760Greek_Deep_Mani
0.04477177Greek_Crete_Lasithi
0.04614186Italian_Calabria
0.04626061Greek_Cappadocia
0.04738771Italian_Jew
0.04765393Italian_Campania
0.04827166Sephardic_Jew
0.04950706Ashkenazi_Germany
0.05014206Greek_Crete_Heraklion
0.05027201Syrian_Jew
0.05054577Greek_Apulia
0.05148672Italian_Apulia
0.05181630Greek_Cyclades_Milos
0.05187581Italian_Basilicata
0.05305074Druze
0.05310654Greek_Cyclades_Tinos
0.05480921Greek_Crete_Chania

the first one is definitely from Anatolia
 
Distance to:Serbia_ViminaciumPirivoj:I15502
0.03163298Greek_Cappadocia
0.03229132Greek_Central_Anatolia
0.03721119Greek_Dodecanese_Rhodes
0.04014985Greek_Trabzon
0.04026291Greek_Dodecanese
0.04026525Cypriot
0.04047413Armenian_Gesaria
0.04255848Armenian_Aintab
0.04269414Greek_Kos
0.04311043Armenian_Ararat
0.04327664Turkish_Trabzon
0.04353465Armenian_Urfa
0.04542333Armenian_Erzurum
0.04800653Greek_Crete
0.04823452Greek_Crete_Heraklion
0.04871487Armenian_Syunik
0.04880979Armenian_Parspatunik
0.04888886Syrian_Jew
0.04943679Greek_Crete_Lasithi
0.04996246Georgian_Meskheti
0.05080002Druze
0.05091853Lebanese_Druze
0.05102703Armenian_Gurin
0.05179836Turkish_Erzurum
0.05193885Greek_Cyclades_Amorgos


Distance to:Serbia_ViminaciumGrobalja:I15526
0.03526918Greek_Kos
0.03526927Cypriot
0.03638499Greek_Dodecanese_Rhodes
0.03712493Greek_Dodecanese
0.04298247Greek_Cyclades_Amorgos
0.04335661Greek_Central_Anatolia
0.04405558Romaniote_Jew
0.04418583Greek_Crete
0.04460760Greek_Deep_Mani
0.04477177Greek_Crete_Lasithi
0.04614186Italian_Calabria
0.04626061Greek_Cappadocia
0.04738771Italian_Jew
0.04765393Italian_Campania
0.04827166Sephardic_Jew
0.04950706Ashkenazi_Germany
0.05014206Greek_Crete_Heraklion
0.05027201Syrian_Jew
0.05054577Greek_Apulia
0.05148672Italian_Apulia
0.05181630Greek_Cyclades_Milos
0.05187581Italian_Basilicata
0.05305074Druze
0.05310654Greek_Cyclades_Tinos
0.05480921Greek_Crete_Chania

the first one is definitely from Anatolia

nice(y)
which calculator you used for those two?
 
A good example which shows why uniparental data is one of the key aspects in population genetics (next to MtDNA and auDNA). I have a general interest in macrohaplogroup J2-M172 (aka "J2") and picked up haplogroup J2a1-M319 as an example, taken from the Greek FTDNA project which @eupator shared earlier.

Ancient J2a1-M319 samples in Greece:

Screenshot_20240110-194902_Chrome.jpg


J2a1-M319 clusters in modern Greeks (including Crete, Peloponnese, Greek Macedonia), not sure about the deeper clade placements in these cases apart from the Peloponnesian one:

Screenshot_20240110-194244_Chrome.jpg
 
Last edited:
I argue that during the Bronze Age there is an intermediate line between Mycenaean Greece and the North Balkans. One will find E-V13 within that line. Epirus is somewhat isolated due to the Pindus mountains. Tribes from the Adriatic could go South, and Mycenaeans traveled North. Resulting to an intermediate Mycenaean/Illyrian line in itself.

Now, in the Early Bronze Age as the Minoan influence reached Thessaly it attracted pre-porto-Hellenic nomadic tribes. They mixed, resulting to a language shift, creating the proto-Greeks. Since the South of Greece was closer to Crete and more advanced, it lured these new Greeks southward. They mixed with the locals. As such the Mycenaeans were born. Now, not all Greeks were equally civilised. The South was more developed and it attracted Greeks from the North. From the intermediate line, where E-V13, but also more Steppe was also present. There was continuous sporadic movement, but at times, also invasions. Think of the Thessalians, who pushed the Boeotians further South
....
If EV13 was only present in some Dacian tribe up North, it could not have spread in the Greco Roman world on time. It would be too little too late.
E1b-V13 is not Illyrian-related hence it obviously did not bring some sort of East Adriatic "steppe heavier" ancestry to prehistoric Greece. The highest geographic density in which the oldest E1b-V13 samples have been found, the likes of Kapitan Andreevo, Svilengrad and what not, do in fact carry very little steppe ancestry plotting just a bit north of Myceanean samples. They additionally carry some Anatolian BA-like admixture.

Also, E1b-V13 in that FTDNA based map chart is vastly overexaggerated due to sample bias. Consequently that is not a realistic picture of E1b-V13 presence in modern Greece.
 
E-V13 did bring more steppe ancestry to Greece, but there were two reasons for a limited impact:
1) Much of the Thracian expansion was pushed back by local Greek tribes soon after the initial push of Thracians in the Transitional Period.
2) While on the move and after settling down, the Thracians mixed extensively with a local more Aegeo-West Anatolian shifted population, which made them even more Greek-like than they were in their initially.
 
E-V13 did bring more steppe ancestry to Greece, but there were two reasons for a limited impact:
1) Much of the Thracian expansion was pushed back by local Greek tribes soon after the initial push of Thracians in the Transitional Period.
2) While on the move and after settling down, the Thracians mixed extensively with a local more Aegeo-West Anatolian shifted population, which made them even more Greek-like than they were in their initially.
I did not word myself properly I would think that the Southern Thracians are the best candidates as a possible pre-Roman E1b-V13 source in ancient Greeks. These, too, do in fact carry more steppe ancestry than Myceneaeans albeit it of course does not have a Adriatic trajectory, since that is what OP suggested.

I reckon if not via some already stabilized South Thracian profile they could have had a auDNA profile similar to the Himera E1b-V13 mercaneries or the Glinoe sample. I'd agree that it was most likely limited and the vast majority of V13 would have come later.
 
I agree that the study seems to be partially wrong.

I think that Albanians mixed with both original slavs,and then with South-Slavic populations.
That’s the case with Greeks too, naturally. Separate admixture events. In fact the second wasn’t always an admixture event per se. South Slavs with Greek national identity have been incorporated into the Greek state population around the Balkan wars era too. That could explain why the Roman danubian frontier study had to use a different model to estimate Slavic admixture in Greeks vs the other Balkan countries (their main model was getting rejected iirc). You have people with quite low Slavic admixture and very ancient at that, people that are fully Bulgarian-like and everything in-between.
 
That’s the case with Greeks too, naturally. Separate admixture events. In fact the second wasn’t always an admixture event per se. South Slavs with Greek national identity have been incorporated into the Greek state population around the Balkan wars era too. That could explain why the Roman danubian frontier study had to use a different model to estimate Slavic admixture in Greeks vs the other Balkan countries (their main model was getting rejected iirc). You have people with quite low Slavic admixture and very ancient at that, people that are fully Bulgarian-like and everything in-between.
The Slavs in Greece at least in the early days lived in special enclaves, named Sclaviniai. They were kicked out of these areas I think around the 9th and 10th and moved to Anatolia. Conversely, Greeks from Southern Italy and Asia Minor were brought to the Peloponnese and Macedonia. The process of re-hellenization was quite successful. Not a lot of admix happened around the Sclaviniai. The admix/assimilation must have happened later.
 
The Slavs in Greece at least in the early days lived in special enclaves, named Sclaviniai. They were kicked out of these areas I think around the 9th and 10th and moved to Anatolia. Conversely, Greeks from Southern Italy and Asia Minor were brought to the Peloponnese and Macedonia. The process of re-hellenization was quite successful. Not a lot of admix happened around the Sclaviniai. The admix/assimilation must have happened later.
This is not parsimonious at all. Most Slavs were christianized and got assimilated after a couple of centuries. A few isolated tribes persisted well into late eastern Roman Empire times. They weren’t kicked out, their genetic signature is present and some ydna timelines of Greeks (eg Y4460) even match the Slavic expansion timeline. Anatolia in comparison has orders of magnitude less Slavic genetic input .

At the same time there was no need for “re-hellenization” because Greeks were always a majority especially in the plains and the arrival of Slavs (which went to the mountains and fortified themselves there into enclaves for safety against the more populous locals) didn’t change that. This whole “Slavs came in, replaced Greeks and then later the emperors removed the Slavs and brought Greeks from elsewhere back in” is medieval fantasy enhanced by modern revisionist propaganda.
 
This is not parsimonious at all. Most Slavs were christianized and got assimilated after a couple of centuries. A few isolated tribes persisted well into late eastern Roman Empire times. They weren’t kicked out, their genetic signature is present and some ydna timelines of Greeks (eg Y4460) even match the Slavic expansion timeline. Anatolia in comparison has orders of magnitude less Slavic genetic input .

At the same time there was no need for “re-hellenization” because Greeks were always a majority especially in the plains and the arrival of Slavs (which went to the mountains and fortified themselves there into enclaves for safety against the more populous locals) didn’t change that. This whole “Slavs came in, replaced Greeks and then later the emperors removed the Slavs and brought Greeks from elsewhere back in” is medieval fantasy enhanced by modern revisionist propaganda.
"Apart from military expeditions against Slavs, the re-Hellenization process begun under Nicephorus I involved (often forcible) transfer of peoples.[68] Many Slavs were moved to other parts of the empire, such as Anatolia, and made to serve in the military.[69] In return, many Greeks from Sicily and Asia Minor were brought to the interior of Greece to increase the number of defenders at the Emperor's disposal and to dilute the concentration of Slavs.[65] Even non-Greeks were transferred to the Balkans, such as Armenians.[63] As more of the peripheral territories of the Byzantine Empire were lost in the following centuries, such as Sicily, southern Italy and Asia Minor, their Greek-speakers made their own way back to Greece. The re-Hellenization of Greece by population transfers and cultural activities of the Church was successful, which suggests that Slavs found themselves in the midst of many Greeks.[70] It is doubtful that such large number could have been transplanted into Greece in the 9th century; surely many Greeks had remained in Greece and continued to speak Greek throughout the period of Slavic occupation.[70] The success of re-Hellenization also suggests the number of Slavs in Greece was far smaller than those found in the former Yugoslavia and Bulgaria.[70] For example, Bulgaria could not be re-Hellenized when Byzantine administration was established over the Bulgars in 1018 to last for well over a century, until 1186.[70]"

 

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