Economy European & global economy: who is getting richer ?

Maciamo

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I have checked the forecasts for GDP per capita (PPP) for the next five years. Slavic and Baltic countries in the EU are starting to overtake older member states from southern Europe. The Czechs are already richer than the Greeks and Portuguese, and will have caught up with the Italians by 2018. Meanwhile the Estonians, Lithuanians, Slovaks and Slovenes will also overtake the Greeks and Portuguese and get much closer to the Italians. The Russians will become almost as rich as the Portuguese and catch up with the Poles.

Worldwide, the South Koreans, who are now as rich as the Spaniards, will become richer than the French, Belgians, Brits, Danes, Finns and Japanese in five years. The Taiwanese, who now have the same GDP per capita as Germany, will become richer than any Europeans except the Norwegians and Luxembourgers, and on a par with the Swiss. People in Hong Kong, the United Emirates and Qatar are already richer than all Europeans bar Luxembourg and the gap will become even wider.

The Chinese will become slightly richer than the Brazilians and South Africans and over three times richer than the Indians.

Here is a categorisation of Western countries by wealth in 2018.

Category 1 : the super-rich (GDP per capita at PPP over $60,000 in 2018)

Luxembourg, Norway, USA

Category 2 : the rich (GDP per capita at PPP over $50,000 in 2018)

Austria, Australia, Canada, Ireland, Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland

Category 3 : the fairly rich (GDP per capita at PPP over $40,000 in 2018)

Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, United Kingdom

Category 4 : the moderately rich (GDP per capita at PPP over $30,000 in 2018)

Czech Republic, Greece, Italy, Lithuania, Malta, New Zealand, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain

Category 4 : the slightly poor (GDP per capita at PPP over $20,000 in 2018)

Belarus, Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Turkey

Category 5 : the relatively poor (GDP per capita at PPP between $10,000 and $20,000 in 2018)

Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia, Ukraine
 
I started this thread 10 years ago (2013), looking at projections of GDP per capita 5 years in the future (2018). I can now verify if the forecasts were correct using Wikipedia's GDP per capita tables by year. There were mistakes.

By 2018, Ireland and Switzerland both beat the forecast and were no longer among the Rich but in the Super-Rich. Ireland's GDP per capita was already at $85,000! It practically doubled in five years!

Belgium, Denmark and Germany did better too, reaching the Rich instead of the Fairly Rich.

Italy, Spain, Czechia, Malta, Cyprus, Israel and New Zealand all passed the bar of the $40,000 earlier than expected. Cyprus managed to jump two categories compared to the forecasts!

Estonia, Poland and Hungary also beat the forecast, reaching the Moderately Rich ($30,000+) instead of the Slightly Poor ($20,000+).

Greece is the only country that did worse than expected, falling from Moderately Rich to Slightly Poor.
 
Let's now see the new ranking by categories as of 2023, although I have now added a category 0 for the ultra-rich to accommodate Luxembourg and Ireland who are now flying so high above everybody else that "super-rich" just won't cut it.

Category 0 : the ulra-rich (GDP per capita at PPP over $140,000 in 2023)

Ireland, Luxembourg

Category 1 : the super-rich (GDP per capita at PPP over $60,000)

Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, USA

Category 2 : the rich (GDP per capita at PPP over $50,000)

Cyprus, Czechia, France, Israel, Italy, New Zealand, Slovenia, United Kingdom

Category 3 : the fairly rich (GDP per capita at PPP over $40,000)

Croatia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Spain, Turkey

Category 4 : the moderately rich (GDP per capita at PPP over $30,000)

Bulgaria, Greece, Russia

Category 4 : the slightly poor (GDP per capita at PPP over $20,000)

Belarus, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia

Category 5 : the relatively poor (GDP per capita at PPP between $10,000 and $20,000)

Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ukraine


I calculated the growth rate over the last ten years (2013-23) for each country (I even added Japan). Ireland beat every country with its spectacular growth of 300%. The Balkans, Romania, Poland, Turkey, Malta and Cyprus are other fast growing economies.

I was surprised to see that Norway was the slowest growing economy, behind even Russia, Belarus and Japan! Australia and Canada are also surprisingly poor performers.

Greece is actually not doing so bad - better even than the United States and most Western European countries!

CountryGDP/capita 2013GDP/capita 2023Growth (%)
Ireland47,773145,196303.93
Romania19,64141,634211.97
Croatia22,13442,531192.15
Bulgaria16,69232,006191.74
Malta32,56061,939190.23
Montenegro14,67027,761189.24
Poland24,30645,343186.55
Turkey22,22141,412186.36
Lithuania26,72249,266184.36
Cyprus30,31354,611180.16
Albania10,57119,029180.01
Hungary24,50943,907179.15
Latvia22,51440,256178.80
Bosnia11,03819,604177.60
Slovenia29,99052,641175.53
Serbia14,62425,432173.91
Estonia27,46546,385168.89
North Macedonia12,71721,111166.01
Czechia30,81350,961165.39
Portugal27,93644,707160.03
Israel34,75554,997158.24
Denmark46,82973,386156.71
Iceland44,67369,779156.20
Greece25,89639,478152.45
New Zealand35,46954,046152.38
Spain32,46349,448152.32
USA53,25680,035150.28
Belgium43,75565,501149.70
Italy36,28954,216149.40
Finland40,96960,897148.64
Slovakia28,03241,515148.10
Netherlands49,31472,973147.98
Germany44,99466,132146.98
Austria47,93769,502144.99
France40,95258,828143.65
Sweden46,09965,842142.83
Switzerland62,05787,963141.75
UK39,98956,471141.22
Australia46,52465,366140.50
Luxembourg102,121142,490139.53
Canada44,36060,177135.66
Russia26,04534,837133.76
Japan39,43751,809131.37
Belarus18,99723,447123.42
Norway67,47682,655122.50
 
To give a better idea of what these growth rate mean, here are what South Korea, China and India achieved during the same period.

CountryGDP/capita 2013GDP/capita 2023Growth (%)
China11,90523,382196.40
India5,0179,073180.85
South Korea34,24456,706165.59

Romania's GDP per capita grew slightly faster than China's.

China's growth over the last ten years was dwarfed by Ireland's, which grew 50% more.

India's growth is right in the middle of Eastern European countries. South Korea had a growth similar to that of Czechia or Portugal.
 
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