Ygorcs: I was just experimenting with some samples from Eurogenes K13 Ancient. I just used 64 samples from Mesolithic and Neolithic, no Roman Samples, except the WHG, and wanted to see what model fit I could get. I included Keb_4 for North African Late Neolithic, all the Levant and Jordan Neolithic samples in K13, 4 WHG from Italy, 3 from Lazio, 1 from Sicily, all of the Anatolian Neolithic samples and 4 of the TEP, along with several of the Iran_NEO. I also included Sicilian Bell Beaker I4390, which is not in K13 (I used the kit number at GEDMATCH and estimated the coordinates) and included Otzi the Iceman since I have DEEP Dive Chroma match with Otzi (MTA) by estimating his K13 coordinates. I can get a distance with just 2 Anatolian Neolithic samples, Otzi and the Sicilian_WHG from Favignana (My Y-DNA is I-M223, not that Y Haplogroups explain the whole story. But the it seems that I can be modeled quite well without significant steppe, as I think what is going on with R851 and R850. From what is clearly present in Antonio et al 2019 Figure 2, Lazio was made up of people whose genetic makeup with significantly predominnatly Anatolian Neolilthic, with some WHG, and/or Iran_NEO. In my case, I don't require direct source from anything about Anatolian Neolithic and WHG. Now, I recognize that some of those samples in the model fit below could, and likely, have some Iran_Neo or Levant_Neolithic, or CHG type ancestry as part of their genetic makeup, but since we are just looking at models and how we can model folks, a distance of 2.49 I think would meet your definition of a very good fit.
Target: PalermoTrapani
Distance: 2.4985% / 2.49849989 | ADC: 0.25x | |
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45.6 | I1584_Anatolia_C_5776_ybp |
| |
34.6 | Tep002_Tepecik_Ciftlik_level_5_c_6500_BCE_8500_BP_ |
| |
16.2 | I2158_Late_Upper_Paleolithic_Sicilian_hunter_gatherer_ |
| |
3.6 | Otzi |
If I drop I2158 from source Data, R11 from Central Italy works just as well. So not just some local effect due to the Sicilian_WHG, if there even was such a thing (I think there as research indicates not the case).
Target: PalermoTrapani
Distance: 2.7756% / 2.77555812 | ADC: 0.25x
| |
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45.4 | I1584_Anatolia_C_5776_ybp |
| |
34.2 | Tep002_Tepecik_Ciftlik_level_5_c_6500_BCE_8500_BP_ |
| |
16.0 | R11_Abruzzo_Mesolithic_Hunter-Gatherer_Italy |
| |
4.4 | Otzi |
In full disclosure, here are the variables that I used as the source data. Again, I tried to ensure I had a direct source Neolithic source from North Africa, Levant and Iran, and Anatolia. I also wanted to ensure I had a direct source of WHG and Steppe. Since MTA gives me Sicilian_Beaker I4390 as a top archeological match and Otzi as a DEEP DIVE Match, I included them in the sample
KEB_4_(Morocco_5000_BP_keb.4_Morocco_378003650y.old,10.50,0.00,44.08,0.00,21.54,15.76,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,6.67,1.45
I2158_Late_Upper_Paleolithic_Sicilian_hunter_gatherer_,51.12,43.75,3.37,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,1.75,0.00,0.00
R11_Abruzzo_Mesolithic_Hunter-Gatherer_Italy,49.48,44.93,2.68,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,2.41,0.00,0.51
R15_Abruzzo_Mesolithic_Hunter-Gatherer_Italy,43.95,50.44,3.82,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.05,0.00,0.00,1.54,0.00,0.20
R7_Abruzzo_Mesolithic_Hunter-Gatherer_Italy,50.03,45.63,2.52,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,1.82,0.00,0.00
Bar31_Anatolia_Early_Neolithic_,16.28,0.00,41.45,0.00,34.40,6.14,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.44,1.29
Bar8_Anatolia_N.SG_8071_ybp,10.93,0.00,45.07,0.00,40.17,3.82,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00
Bon002_Anatolia_N_Boncuklu.SG_10078_ybp,17.64,0.40,44.91,0.00,33.21,2.73,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,1.12,0.00,0.00
I0707_Anatolia_N_8092_ybp,7.33,0.00,46.18,0.00,41.13,5.35,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00
I0708_Anatolia_N_8097_ybp,7.25,0.00,43.57,0.08,44.29,4.81,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00
I0709_Anatolia_N_8086_ybp,8.75,0.00,46.20,0.00,40.49,4.57,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00
I0723_Anatolia_N_7870_ybp,6.40,0.00,47.49,0.00,41.94,4.11,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.07,0.00,0.00
I0724_Anatolia_N_7950_ybp,12.29,0.00,47.43,0.00,35.97,4.05,0.00,0.00,0.26,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00
I0726_Anatolia_N_7950_ybp,9.55,0.00,46.27,0.00,37.57,6.60,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00
I0727_Anatolia_N_7950_ybp,1.40,0.00,51.31,0.00,41.58,5.70,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00
I0736_Anatolia_N_8300_ybp,9.05,0.00,43.92,0.00,42.32,4.71,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00
I0744_Anatolia_N_8273_ybp,7.26,0.00,47.78,0.00,42.05,2.91,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00
I0745_Anatolia_N_8251_ybp,10.49,0.00,42.35,0.00,39.56,7.54,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.06,0.00,0.00
I0746_Anatolia_N_7930_ybp,12.22,0.00,45.24,0.00,36.49,6.05,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00
I1096_Anatolia_N_8300_ybp,10.55,0.00,43.86,0.00,41.95,3.64,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00
I1097_Anatolia_N_8288_ybp,5.09,0.00,47.04,0.00,44.06,3.82,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00
I1098_Anatolia_N_8288_ybp,8.97,0.00,40.63,0.00,45.08,5.32,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00
I1099_Anatolia_N_8300_ybp,11.33,0.00,44.13,0.00,41.04,3.50,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00
I1100_Anatolia_N_8300_ybp,6.96,0.00,48.01,0.00,40.77,3.84,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.42,0.00,0.00
I1101_Anatolia_N_8300_ybp,10.27,0.00,43.37,0.00,42.30,4.06,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00
I1102_Anatolia_N_8300_ybp,11.70,0.00,45.89,0.00,36.40,5.80,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.11,0.00,0.10
I1103_Anatolia_N_8300_ybp,5.63,0.00,46.90,0.00,39.72,7.71,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.04,0.00,0.00
I1580_Anatolia_N_8195_ybp,7.32,0.00,47.45,0.00,38.61,6.62,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00
I1581_Anatolia_N_8254_ybp,6.99,0.00,48.39,0.00,38.11,6.51,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00
I1583_Anatolia_N_8281_ybp,4.17,0.00,48.75,0.00,41.73,5.35,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00
I1584_Anatolia_C_5776_ybp,9.90,0.00,24.65,25.27,35.62,2.63,1.46,0.00,0.48,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00
I2495_Anatolia_EBA_4377_ybp,5.20,0.00,27.24,21.78,42.47,3.31,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00
I2499_Anatolia_EBA_4604_ybp,5.99,0.16,25.06,24.20,36.91,6.38,0.82,0.16,0.00,0.07,0.24,0.00,0.00
Tep002_Anatolia_N_Tepecik_Ciftlik.SG_8585_ybp,7.21,0.00,41.68,0.00,43.08,8.04,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00
Tep002_Tepecik_Ciftlik_level_5_c_6500_BCE_8500_BP_,12.96,0.00,33.37,1.13,39.75,9.07,0.00,0.00,0.44,0.00,0.00,2.71,0.54
Tep003_Anatolia_N_Tepecik_Ciftlik.SG_8505_ybp,4.96,0.00,32.53,11.24,45.49,5.78,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00
Tep004_Anatolia_N_Tepecik_Ciftlik.SG_8295_ybp,6.08,0.00,34.12,0.84,45.53,13.43,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00
I0231_Russia_Yamnaya_Samara_published_4800_ybp,23.27,37.03,0.00,26.04,0.00,0.00,7.86,0.00,0.15,5.64,0.00,0.00,0.00
I0357_Russia_Yamnaya_Samara_4952_ybp,26.44,33.97,0.00,28.34,0.00,0.00,5.51,0.00,0.00,5.57,0.16,0.00,0.00
I0370_Russia_Yamnaya_Samara_4950_ybp,23.57,38.22,0.00,26.65,0.00,0.00,4.88,0.00,1.46,5.12,0.00,0.00,0.10
I0438_Russia_Yamnaya_Samara_4778_ybp,21.36,38.92,0.00,28.70,0.00,0.00,5.77,0.00,0.00,5.26,0.00,0.00,0.00
I0439_Russia_Yamnaya_Samara_5071_ybp,29.46,35.48,0.00,23.03,0.00,0.00,7.26,0.00,0.00,4.06,0.70,0.00,0.00
SharakhalsunSteppeMaykop_SA6004_,4.00,46.51,0.00,27.30,0.00,0.00,8.92,0.00,0.00,13.26,0.00,0.00,0.00
Sholpan_(CentralSteppe_EMBA)_Yamnaya_,1.04,32.55,0.00,6.60,0.00,0.00,12.19,0.00,26.81,20.60,0.21,0.00,0.00
AY2001_Aygurskiy_2_Steppe_Maykop_5271_5_T2e_,9.61,31.32,0.00,40.91,0.00,0.00,9.21,0.00,0.00,8.94,0.00,0.00,0.00
AY2003_Aygurskiy_2_Steppe_Maykop_5455_H2a1_,7.12,44.77,0.00,22.41,0.00,0.00,10.28,0.00,0.00,15.42,0.00,0.00,0.00
I1699_Jordan_PPNC_8700_ybp,0.00,0.00,23.61,0.00,51.52,21.04,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,3.83,0.00
I1704_Jordan_PPNB_9202_ybp,0.00,0.00,18.15,0.00,51.47,25.50,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,1.45,3.43,0.00
I1705_Jordan_EBA_4032_ybp,0.00,0.00,9.87,8.89,52.19,27.31,0.00,0.00,0.66,0.01,0.97,0.10,0.00
I1706_Jordan_EBA_4345_ybp,0.00,0.00,10.44,5.18,49.64,30.57,0.00,0.89,0.00,1.34,0.19,1.75,0.00
I1707_Jordan_PPNB_9582_ybp,0.00,0.00,20.05,0.00,50.96,23.60,0.00,0.80,0.00,0.00,1.04,3.55,0.00
I1710_Jordan_PPNB_9580_ybp,0.00,0.00,25.36,0.00,53.41,20.63,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.61,0.00
i1722_Unakozovskaya_Eneolithic_Caucasus_6403_F_R1a_,11.55,1.42,9.98,63.67,11.91,1.48,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00
I1730_Jordan_EBA_4344_ybp,0.00,0.00,12.25,6.70,53.95,24.43,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.84,1.84,0.00
I0867_LevantN_,0.00,0.00,26.75,0.00,49.96,23.29,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00
LevantBA_M291439_,0.00,0.00,11.51,7.13,50.13,31.16,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.08,0.00
LevantPPNB_I0867_Israel_730006750,0.00,0.00,24.55,0.00,48.45,21.59,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.15,0.00,5.27,0.00
I0867_Israel_PPNB_8700_ybp,0.00,0.00,24.75,0.00,50.23,23.02,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,2.00,0.00
ChalcolithicIranian_,0.00,0.00,0.00,62.27,29.64,2.19,5.89,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00
I1290_Iran_Ganj_Dareh_N_9846_ybp,0.00,0.00,0.00,68.04,6.02,0.00,20.99,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,4.95
I1293_Iran_HotuIIIb_all_10800_ybp,0.00,0.00,0.00,68.97,0.00,0.00,23.56,0.00,0.00,1.53,1.03,0.00,4.91
I1945_Iran_Ganj_Dareh_N_published_9800_ybp,0.00,0.00,0.00,70.42,0.00,0.00,24.85,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.38,2.19,2.16
Siclian_Beaker_I4930,15.32,6.54,38.77,12.25,22.74,4.38,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Otzi,16.85,0,39.58,0,25.76,3.26,0,6.28,1.63,0,2.19,4.43,0