How long humankind will survive?

[LeBrok]

Did we crossed a threshold in intelligence development, which will let us develop any technology and produce enough food in any conditions to survive any catastrophe, like new Ice Age or Global Warming, or giant meteorite strike?

Will our dark side of violence, hatred and destruction bring annihilation of humankind in total atom war? Likewise, will we all die irreversibly polluting the whole planet?

Will we save our species by genetically enhancing our good traits like memory, intelligence, kindness, compassion, love of life, optimism, which will bring prosperity and peace for the whole planet?

Will we enhance humans to the point of becoming immortal gods, flying in spaceships to other solar system seeding life and intelligence throughout galaxy?

Space is vast and we might not be able to live long enough to fly to other starts and will die as species when our sun burns out?

Perhaps Jesus will come again or other our creator and take us "home"?

If we enhance ourselves to the point of becoming super-beings, will we stop being humans?

Perhaps we are no better and no more special than other species on Earth and will only last the average lifespan of a species, few million years?

Perhaps we will exhaust all the resources of our planet, technological civilization will collapse, and we will only exist as hunter-gatherers for a million years or so?

Perhaps, as rich nations do, we will have fewer and fewer kids till the last one "turns off the light" in 10,000 years?

Perhaps, as rich and lazy, we will lose the will to live, we lose a purpose of existence, we will get totally board, and will commit suicide as a specie?



What is your scenario for humankind, for survival and future of our species?

 

[LeBrok]

Personally I'm optimistic. I think we are smart, good enough, and resilient to always find a way to go on.

 

[Boreas]

We can live long but I don't think we will live with same quality. There will be a fall

 

[bicicleur 2]

when whatever catstrophie happens, it will be back to survival of the fittest
now that doesn't exist any more, we have a population explosion that can't last

 

[Angela]

Personally I'm optimistic. I think we are smart, good enough, and resilient to always find a way to go on.

Of course you do, my dear Le Brok. I expected nothing less.

It shouldn't surprise you to know that I love end of the world scenario films and tv series. This is a great list.
http://www.ifc.com/fix/2012/04/10-best-earth-in-distress-movies/2

I do have some optimism, however, and a personal determination to survive. (and I suppose a belief that it's possible.)

At least since adolescence I occasionally have a very detailed dream about an invasion of some sort, or a "plague", where I scurry madly about stocking seeds and animals and tools, getting generators for electricity etc. and then heading into the mountains. Oh, I always make sure to bring along lots of guns and ammo. (True. In dire circumstances I don't trust people at all.) I think some of it might have to do with the fact that my grandmother lived with us and many of her stories were about the war. Anyway, if it ever happens, my plan is ready to go.

 

[mihaitzateo]

Why the poll do not have an option "I have no idea" ?

 

[DuPidh]

Did we crossed a threshold in intelligence development, which will let us develop any technology and produce enough food in any conditions to survive any catastrophe, like new Ice Age or Global Warming, or giant meteorite strike?

Will our dark side of violence, hatred and destruction bring annihilation of humankind in total atom war? Likewise, will we all die irreversibly polluting the whole planet?

Will we save our species by genetically enhancing our good traits like memory, intelligence, kindness, compassion, love of life, optimism, which will bring prosperity and peace for the whole planet?

Will we enhance humans to the point of becoming immortal gods, flying in spaceships to other solar system seeding life and intelligence throughout galaxy?

Space is vast and we might not be able to live long enough to fly to other starts and will die as species when our sun burns out?

Perhaps Jesus will come again or other our creator and take us "home"?

If we enhance ourselves to the point of becoming super-beings, will we stop being humans?

Perhaps we are no better and no more special than other species on Earth and will only last the average lifespan of a species, few million years?

Perhaps we will exhaust all the resources of our planet, technological civilization will collapse, and we will only exist as hunter-gatherers for a million years or so?

Perhaps, as rich nations do, we will have fewer and fewer kids till the last one "turns off the light" in 10,000 years?

Perhaps, as rich and lazy, we will lose the will to live, we lose a purpose of existence, we will get totally board, and will commit suicide as a specie?



What is your scenario for humankind, for survival and future of our species?

Earth will be livable for at most 400 million years. By then there will be not enough magnetism to protect the earth from radiation. Humanity is doomed if no asteroid visits earth earlier than that.

 

[LeBrok]

Why the poll do not have an option "I have no idea" ?

It is obvious. All who posted here but didn't vote chose "I don't know". It is not about truth, it is all about personal feelings about humanity, and some fun, and some thought exchange on the subject.

 

[LeBrok]

Earth will be livable for at most 400 million years. By then there will be not enough magnetism to protect the earth from radiation. Humanity is doomed if no asteroid visits earth earlier than that.

I never heard about any prediction how long magnetic field will last. Why 400 million?

 

[LeBrok]

when whatever catstrophie happens, it will be back to survival of the fittest
now that doesn't exist any more, we have a population explosion that can't last

I think it will shrink soon when all world develops. I also think that 1 billion people would be a nice and sustainable number on Earth.

 

[LeBrok]

We can live long but I don't think we will live with same quality. There will be a fall

I don't agree. Soon we will live healthier lives on much more comfortable level. Robots will do the work, automatic cars and plains will carry us around, 3D printers will print all we need, even from sand which is inexhaustible.
The only problem will be boredom a lack of purpose in life.

 

[LeBrok]

Of course you do, my dear Le Brok. I expected nothing less.

It shouldn't surprise you to know that I love end of the world scenario films and tv series. This is a great list.
http://www.ifc.com/fix/2012/04/10-best-earth-in-distress-movies/2

I do have some optimism, however, and a personal determination to survive. (and I suppose a belief that it's possible.)

At least since adolescence I occasionally have a very detailed dream about an invasion of some sort, or a "plague", where I scurry madly about stocking seeds and animals and tools, getting generators for electricity etc. and then heading into the mountains. Oh, I always make sure to bring along lots of guns and ammo. (True. In dire circumstances I don't trust people at all.) I think some of it might have to do with the fact that my grandmother lived with us and many of her stories were about the war. Anyway, if it ever happens, my plan is ready to go.

I can't watch disaster movies, they are screwing up science and physics in general, not mentioning terrible dialog. We just had unusual situation to compare life to the fictional scenario of a viable disaster. We survived Ebola outbreak, with all world working together sending help, isolating 3 unfortunate countries, and with few thousand deaths. In motion picture "Outbreak" humankind barely survived, and by way of a miracle. There is more hope to humankind that you want to admit.

 

[DuPidh]

I never heard about any prediction how long magnetic field will last. Why 400 million?

Some scientists speculate that Earth is at its 90% of its magnetic life. Remains another 10 %. Since Earth is 4 billion years old 10% is 400 million. Earth mantle will no longer be molted. Molten mantle is responsible for generating magnetism which in turn deflects high energy radioactive particles coming from the sun and other cosmic bodies. That enables life to exist. In that case Earth will be striped of its atmosphere and that will mean end of humanity.

 

[LeBrok]

Some scientists speculate that Earth is at its 90% of its magnetic life. Remains another 10 %. Since Earth is 4 billion years old 10% is 400 million. Earth mantle will no longer be molted. Molten mantle is responsible for generating magnetism which in turn deflects high energy radioactive particles coming from the sun and other cosmic bodies. That enables life to exist. In that case Earth will be striped of its atmosphere and that will mean end of humanity.

There is a hypothesis saying that Earth's internal heat is powered by nuclear reactor inside the core. As long as this reactor is active the magma, vulcanism and magnetic field will go on. It's been 5 billion years since Earth's birth already. Who knows how much energy is left? Without it Earth would be like Mars, Venus or a moon.

But don't worry, we'll be walking around in tin foil hats.
Or build glass domes for cities, or wipe wires around the stratosphere and create man made magnetic field.

 

[Maleth]

Did we crossed a threshold in intelligence development, which will let us develop any technology and produce enough food in any conditions to survive any catastrophe, like new Ice Age or Global Warming, or giant meteorite strike?

Will our dark side of violence, hatred and destruction bring annihilation of humankind in total atom war? Likewise, will we all die irreversibly polluting the whole planet?

Will we save our species by genetically enhancing our good traits like memory, intelligence, kindness, compassion, love of life, optimism, which will bring prosperity and peace for the whole planet?

Will we enhance humans to the point of becoming immortal gods, flying in spaceships to other solar system seeding life and intelligence throughout galaxy?

Space is vast and we might not be able to live long enough to fly to other starts and will die as species when our sun burns out?

Perhaps Jesus will come again or other our creator and take us "home"?

If we enhance ourselves to the point of becoming super-beings, will we stop being humans?

Perhaps we are no better and no more special than other species on Earth and will only last the average lifespan of a species, few million years?

Perhaps we will exhaust all the resources of our planet, technological civilization will collapse, and we will only exist as hunter-gatherers for a million years or so?

Perhaps, as rich nations do, we will have fewer and fewer kids till the last one "turns off the light" in 10,000 years?

Perhaps, as rich and lazy, we will lose the will to live, we lose a purpose of existence, we will get totally board, and will commit suicide as a specie?



What is your scenario for humankind, for survival and future of our species?

My opinion is that the world will exist long enough (Surviving more imminent challenges such as Ice age and global warming). In fact we can learn from global warming how to warm up the earth in an ice age situation. We can also learn how to plan ahead without any upheavals and internal chaos. At present we will be seen in this current era as primitive when it comes to regional conflicts and global cooperation. This mainly is due to the turbulence of the information age since in reality its still very much in its infancy and does not have access to the whole global population.The information divide is still very evident and will be for a few decades to come. This means that there is going to be a few hundred years of conflicts (verbal and bloody) before it will balance itself out with the middle east and Africa being the last to fall in line.

In the meantime, we would have acquired enough knowledge to build artificial atmospheres in other planets namely Mars, with a number of people emigrating there with better transportation systems. Nuclear power will be harnessed and used in a more sensible and safer way.

In regards to being bored due to robots doing nearly all, lets see it this way. This was already a similar issue when humans became sedentary. A group of people seemed to have much more time on their hands and instead of being bored the arts, sciences, Literature Religions and lots of entertainment was created were otherwise it would not have been possible due to the fact that could only concentrate on how to survive as in terms of food and water. So I would believe it would be just a continuation of that with more people being involved in this other part of life which at present one can only dream of when they get retired, because most of the time one needs to make a living......and now that's even snatched away for another few years because of pension reforms and so on. Voluntary work will also increase. My only concern is that there are going to be a very few number of people who will be mighty rich and everybody else will earn enough just to get by and cause any major revolution but will be comfortable enough even on today's standards. It would be a kind of new communism ruled by a few mighty rich.

 

[LeBrok]

My opinion is that the world will exist long enough (Surviving more imminent challenges such as Ice age and global warming). In fact we can learn from global warming how to warm up the earth in an ice age situation. We can also learn how to plan ahead without any upheavals and internal chaos. At present we will be seen in this current era as primitive when it comes to regional conflicts and global cooperation.

It might be tough, not from technical side, but international agreements. Some countries would like to warm the planet up, some would like to cool it down. Agreement might never be reached. The only decision might be to keep all at current level, no climate change allowed, not to upset anyone. Like we won't let any animal species go extinct nowadays. Climate and evolution will be on hold indefinitely, supported by human condition of being scared of new and unknown.

In the meantime, we would have acquired enough knowledge to build artificial atmospheres in other planets namely Mars.

This one is a long shot. To transport trillions of tons of gasses to create Mars atmosphere, and hundred of billions tons of water, plant life, and make it balanced and sustainable, might take millions of years. Other option is to drill a whole to the center of Mars, dump millions of tons of Uranium and kick start reactor inside Mars. This will reheat mantle, this in turn will cause plates tectonic movements and new volcanoes will release gasses to replenish atmosphere. Not necessarily in the right amounts, so this will need long adjustments. Again, a process for millions of years.
Well, if we behave and survive long enough we might see it happen one day.

In regards to being bored due to robots doing nearly all, lets see it this way. This was already a similar issue when humans became sedentary. A group of people seemed to have much more time on their hands and instead of being bored the arts, sciences, Literature Religions and lots of entertainment was created were otherwise it would not have been possible due to the fact that could only concentrate on how to survive as in terms of food and water. So I would believe it would be just a continuation of that with more people being involved in this other part of life which at present one can only dream of when they get retired, because most of the time one needs to make a living......and now that's even snatched away for another few years because of pension reforms and so on. Voluntary work will also increase. My only concern is that there are going to be a very few number of people who will be mighty rich and everybody else will earn enough just to get by and cause any major revolution but will be comfortable enough even on today's standards. It would be a kind of new communism ruled by a few mighty rich.

It is actually a very interesting scenario, and possibly coming soon to disrupt money flow in our economies. Right now people go to work, they make money, they buy stuff, money goes to factory/business, business buy materials, make new stuff, pays employees for work making stuff, people spend...etc, etc. Money goes in circle. Also people make money and pay taxes, government spends on services for people acting like one communal customer, money goes to businesses and people. In close future however, there will be almost only robots working in factories and services. Robots don't get paid and they don't buy stuff. Money flow as we know is interrupted.

Technically there still should be prosperity. Robots produce goods and serve, people consume. The problem is how do we distribute goods and services without people making money? Give them for free equally, or by needs? Total communism.
Should we tax businesses to the max? Businesses produce and sell, government gets most of the money in taxes, gives money to people (huge welfare system), people spend buying stuff, money goes back to businesses. The money flow is restored. There is another problem, industry can pack and leave to a country with lowest business tax, leaving high tax countries without production and will sliding into a poverty. Unless in the future, there is same high business tax for the whole planet.
Anyway, this problem will crop up soon, when more and more factories will employ only robots. There is interesting phenomenon happening in US during last decade, and related to this phenomenon. Thanks to robotics more and more US firms comes back to manufacture in States. When robots produce stuff the labour cost is of no consequence, therefore the best business location is close to the consumers, for cheaper and faster transportation. It is a good new for States, business people, few professionals, but not necessarily to US working force. Businesses come back but it doesn't translate in lesser unemployment and richer working class. This disrupting trend will only speed up, and at some point money flow will be severely skewed with huge consequences to whole economy and people. New economic model of money flow might be urgently needed.

One of my ideas is to make sure that all citizens become shareholders of local companies, or micro shareholders in every company in a country, and will be paid in money as dividends, or some kind of profit sharing. Money flow will be restored from producer to customer, and money that people make will mirror success and production of entire economy. Here is a funny question. Should citizens become shareholders at birth or at age of 18? You don't need to buy shares, it is an automatic process to share economy equally among every citizen.

I'm afraid, we like it or not, beck door communism might be around the corner, even if it is only on worker or consumer side. Business people and monetary capital will still operate as usual. Unless, at some point, robots can take these jobs away too?

 

[Maleth]

It might be tough, not from technical side, but international agreements. Some countries would like to warm the planet up, some would like to cool it down. Agreement might never be reached. The only decision might be to keep all at current level, no climate change allowed, not to upset anyone. Like we won't let any animal species go extinct nowadays. Climate and evolution will be on hold indefinitely, supported by human condition of being scared of new and unknown.

with global warming there would be lots of new land that would be able to support life and not sure about the ration, but much other would be uninhabitable unless energy is so cheap that sea water could be turned to drinking water and a/c's could keep people sane. Present day city deserts such as Dubai and Las Vegas are mega expensive to run and unless energy costs will become much cheaper it will not be able to sustain in newly formed dessert areas. There isnt much that could be done with the rising sea, and the violent storms / hurricanes will his all continents and got a better chance of hitting a city in the case of global warming. Urban areas are likely to be hit since the Urbanised areas have increased dramatically globally.

This one is a long shot. To transport trillions of tons of gasses to create Mars atmosphere, and hundred of billions tons of water, plant life, and make it balanced and sustainable, might take millions of years. Other option is to drill a whole to the center of Mars, dump millions of tons of Uranium and kick start reactor inside Mars. This will reheat mantle, this in turn will cause plates tectonic movements and new volcanoes will release gasses to replenish atmosphere. Not necessarily in the right amounts, so this will need long adjustments. Again, a process for millions of years.
Well, if we behave and survive long enough we might see it happen one day.

There is lots of money spent in this regards. Humans will be living in domes to start with and each dome will be fully functional with water and food production. Robots will be used in mining in the outer atmosphere. I believe it will just take a few more hundred years and not millions.

It is actually a very interesting scenario, and possibly coming soon to disrupt money flow in our economies. Right now people go to work, they make money, they buy stuff, money goes to factory/business, business buy materials, make new stuff, pays employees for work making stuff, people spend...etc, etc. Money goes in circle. Also people make money and pay taxes, government spends on services for people acting like one communal customer, money goes to businesses and people. In close future however, there will be almost only robots working in factories and services. Robots don't get paid and they don't buy stuff. Money flow as we know is interrupted.

Technically there still should be prosperity. Robots produce goods and serve, people consume. The problem is how do we distribute goods and services without people making money? Give them for free equally, or by needs? Total communism.
Should we tax businesses to the max? Businesses produce and sell, government gets most of the money in taxes, gives money to people (huge welfare system), people spend buying stuff, money goes back to businesses. The money flow is restored. There is another problem, industry can pack and leave to a country with lowest business tax, leaving high tax countries without production and will sliding into a poverty. Unless in the future, there is same high business tax for the whole planet.
Anyway, this problem will crop up soon, when more and more factories will employ only robots. There is interesting phenomenon happening in US during last decade, and related to this phenomenon. Thanks to robotics more and more US firms comes back to manufacture in States. When robots produce stuff the labour cost is of no consequence, therefore the best business location is close to the consumers, for cheaper and faster transportation. It is a good new for States, business people, few professionals, but not necessarily to US working force. Businesses come back but it doesn't translate in lesser unemployment and richer working class. This disrupting trend will only speed up, and at some point money flow will be severely skewed with huge consequences to whole economy and people. New economic model of money flow might be urgently needed.

One of my ideas is to make sure that all citizens become shareholders of local companies, or micro shareholders in every company in a country, and will be paid in money as dividends, or some kind of profit sharing. Money flow will be restored from producer to customer, and money that people make will mirror success and production of entire economy. Here is a funny question. Should citizens become shareholders at birth or at age of 18? You don't need to buy shares, it is an automatic process to share economy equally among every citizen.

I'm afraid, we like it or not, beck door communism might be around the corner, even if it is only on worker or consumer side. Business people and monetary capital will still operate as usual. Unless, at some point, robots can take these jobs away too?

You are right a new system would have to be put in place. Im not sure how that would phased in exactly as it would be a big change and it needs to be gradual

 

[DuPidh]

There is a hypothesis saying that Earth's internal heat is powered by nuclear reactor inside the core. As long as this reactor is active the magma, vulcanism and magnetic field will go on. It's been 5 billion years since Earth's birth already. Who knows how much energy is left? Without it Earth would be like Mars, Venus or a moon.

But don't worry, we'll be walking around in tin foil hats.
Or build glass domes for cities, or wipe wires a of round the stratosphere and create man made magnetic field.

That's right! The radioactive materials that cause heating of the Earth center right now will decay as time goes by. As a result the magnetic activity will decrease and the high energy particle will hit the atmosphere. The phenomenon of aurora that we observe in polar areas will be observable and intense all over the planet. That means the Earth will be striped of its atmosphere and without atmosphere there will be no life. Also as time goes by the Sun loses gravity which in turn causes it to expand and the intensity of the heat will rise. None of them is good for life. Other words even everything else goes perfect on Earth in 500 milion years there will be trouble.

 

[LeBrok]

with global warming there would be lots of new land that would be able to support life and not sure about the ration, but much other would be uninhabitable unless energy is so cheap that sea water could be turned to drinking water and a/c's could keep people sane. Present day city deserts such as Dubai and Las Vegas are mega expensive to run and unless energy costs will become much cheaper it will not be able to sustain in newly formed dessert areas.

Energy will only get cheaper and cheaper, regardless of the source.

There isnt much that could be done with the rising sea, and the violent storms / hurricanes will his all continents and got a better chance of hitting a city in the case of global warming. Urban areas are likely to be hit since the Urbanised areas have increased dramatically globally.

Overall more heat will create more clouds, this should equal a wetter and greener planet, in general sense. 150-200 years ago Canadian prairies were so dry and cold that farmers couldn't grow anything. They started settling here 120 years ago when it got a bit warmer and wetter. Any climate change will always benefit some and not others. You can't win, lol.

There is lots of money spent in this regards. Humans will be living in domes to start with and each dome will be fully functional with water and food production. Robots will be used in mining in the outer atmosphere. I believe it will just take a few more hundred years and not millions.

I think at some point we will, but I personally like it here on Earth. I would rather spend time at the lake than under the glass dome on Mars. It might be a good place just for robots though.
Do you remember how Bio-dome 2 experiment ended? At least they were on Earth to escape to safety.

 

[LeBrok]

That's right! The radioactive materials that cause heating of the Earth center right now will decay as time goes by. As a result the magnetic activity will decrease and the high energy particle will hit the atmosphere. The phenomenon of aurora that we observe in polar areas will be observable and intense all over the planet. That means the Earth will be striped of its atmosphere and without atmosphere there will be no life. Also as time goes by the Sun loses gravity which in turn causes it to expand and the intensity of the heat will rise. None of them is good for life. Other words even everything else goes perfect on Earth in 500 milion years there will be trouble.

Even 500 million years would be awesome stretch of time for human existence.