bicicleur 2
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I don't know if you saw this post on the Dienekes blog. I hope he doesn't mind my posting it here.
" Nobody doubts that Bronze Age collapse happened. Nobody doubts that Sea Peoples raided coastal civilizations in the Eastern Med. Nobody doubts (any more) that the Trojan War really happened. Bronze Age collapse did fell the Mycenean, the Hittite and the Egyptian empires, ushering in the Iron Age a few hundred years later.
But, I am with those that look to fundamentals like climate change and declining trade, rather than to the particular military and political coalitions that seized the moment to tear down civilization. And, a focus on Luwian Civilization is undermined by the fact that Bronze Age collapse had an impact as far away as Denmark, rather than being limited to the Eastern Med.
Could Luwians have played a part in effectuating Bronze Age Collapse? Sure. Did they do so as a well organized central coalition that was the primary proximate cause of the demise of Mycenean, Hittite and Egyptian civilization? I rather doubt it.
Were Luwians the Sea People? They may have been one subset of Sea People, but we know from archaeological evidence that one group of Sea People (the Philistines) were Mycenean Greeks who were resettled in basically the Gaza Strip pursuant to a deal with Egypt to leave it alone in future raids. Realistically, the Sea People were less an ethnically defined nation and more a disparate collection of refugees and raiders aggressively seeking out resources from coastal cities when the economies of their homelands collapsed for reasons beyond their control."
I'm not sure that we know the Philistines were Mycenaean Greeks, but other than that, I rather agree with "Andrew's" assessment of what the evidence currently suggests.
http://dienekes.blogspot.com/2016/05/luwians-vs-hittites-and-mycenaeans-vs.html
(Fwiw, I share your frustration with the posting of conclusions for which there is absolutely no proof. )
there are indications that the Philistines came from the Aegean area
some of them had allready settled in the Gaza area earlier, maybe traders and farmers
they seem to have kept contacts with their homeland
so during the turmoil of the Sea Peoples more Philistines arrived
it doesn't look like it was a military conquest