Makes complete sense. In Lombardia and adjacent areas you have the perfect temperature and humidity for this thing, and a population with very high percentages of the elderly.
The problem is that even if it dies down in summer, it will probably return in the fall and winter. By then, also, many, many people will have died.
As to the fact that CoVid 19 exploded "like a bomb" in Lombardia, again, the similarity to Washington State is noteworthy. In Italy Patient Zero has not definitively been identified. In Washington State the person they think might have been Patient Zero, a person from China, flew into the country very early in January, perhaps only a few days to a week after the virus was isolated in Wuhan. There's nothing anyone could have done at that point. To blame Washington State or the U.S. is pointless and stupid.
The first recorded case in Europe was in Munich, where a woman flew in from China for meetings. The lucky thing for Germany at that point is that the woman fell ill on the plane going back to China, and either she or health authorities informed the health authorities in Munich. The people with whom she came into contact were "self quarantined". I'm sure it stopped a lot of infections. Did it stop all of the spread? I doubt it.
The virus mutates every so often. The virus sequenced in Italy carries the exact same three mutations carried by the sequence in the prior cluster in Munich. Scientific American addresses the situation and concludes that it's impossible to tell if the initial spread was from the prior case in Munich to Lombardy, or if two (or more) people from Fujian traveled to both Munich and Lombardy.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...-coronavirus-moves-they-re-easy-overinterpret
I'm sure we'll never know. For what it's worth, I'm skeptical of the probability of the latter scenario because between the case in Munich and the cases in Lombardy Italy had closed travel from China and was doing temperature checks.
I think it's also important to note, that contrary to the t-rolls here, not all cases in other countries are connected to Italy. That's just where they are looking. Epidemiolgists are always a step behind.
"
On 25 and 26 February, following the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy, multiple cases related to the Italian outbreak were detected in Baden-Württemberg. Other cases, which were not related to the Italian clusters, occurred in multiple regions including Baden-Württemberg, North Rhine-Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate. A specific cluster formed in Heinsberg was linked to the Carnival in Gangelt.[7] Currently, the largest number of COVID-19 cases in Germany are in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia.[8] There have been 18 recoveries.[9]
Wiki: Coronavirus in Germany. I would also mention that Germany does not list deaths as due to Coronavirus when there are other comorbidities, from what I read online. That may be wrong, and even if it's correct, I assign no particular motive to it. However, it doesn't make much sense from a public health point of view if it's being done. It would give a false sense of security,
Let's assume for the moment it happened that way. Would that justify me blaming Germany? Of course not. That would be both incendiary and stupid. At that stage in this pandemic, we didn't know people were most infectious BEFORE they presented symptoms. The only thing Germany could have done at that point would have been to seal Germany's borders and prevent anyone from leaving for any reason. Can anyone say that any country would have done that at that point? Hindsight is always 20/20. Our experience here in the New York area is informative. A lawyer in a suburban town came down with it. He had traveled abroad, but none of the places to which he traveled had reported cases at that time, so he wasn't quarantined. They have been contact tracing like mad. So far, he is "responsible" for 50 cases. He may be one of the "super-spreaders". Is that his fault? Is it the fault of the authorities for following the guidelines in place at that time, guidelines from the WHO and CDC at that time?
This brings me to the case in Modugno. No one knows if that person was actually Patient Zero or where he got it. The fact is that he was released after a few days because he had not been to China or traveled at all, and his friend who had been to China was tested and was negative for it, and he definitely presented with BACTERIAL pneumonia, which adequately explained his symptoms. All the WHO guidelines in place at the time were followed. Similar things happened all over the U.S. and I'm sure other places around the world. Who is to "blame" for that?
I realize that when people get very anxious some will tend to lash out in an attempt to manage that anxiety, and in doing that you sometimes see more of people's underlying prejudices than you wish you had seen. It's not helpful, however.
Italy's ex-premier made a public appeal to other countries not to repeat Italy's "mistakes". From what I can see, those mistakes were in not shutting the country down immediately after the first few cases appeared. I don't see most countries doing that. There was a children's parade in France, soccer fans using their booked airfare and hotels in England even though the games were cancelled, the English fans going to the Cheltenham races, young people here booking cruises at cut rate prices and on and on.
It's time to take responsibility for one's self and one's family, and if that means ignoring the platitudes from the WHO, CDC etc., then do it. The craziness with masks comes to mind. Yes, we want to make sure health care workers have the N95 masks. However, I still believe that part of China's relative "success" is that in their culture wearing a mask during any infectious period, even for colds, is commonplace. They sell them on the street from stands, like cigarettes or condoms. People should be using them, especially in high cluster areas.
This Italian doctor presents one of the most informative and cogent clips I've seen. Anyone who still thinks this is overblown should watch it a couple of times.
[video=youtube;9mrPHO-nkVE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=9mrPHO-nkVE&feature=emb_logo[/video]
One more word in this very long thread about cargo being stopped. I have been arguing about this with my family for over a week. It was announced yesterday that the virus lives on paper and cardboard for up to 24 hours, and on plastic and steel for up to 72 hours.
Imo, the situation in Korea is not analogous. Luckily for the country, a few severe cases showed up all belonging to the same religious sect, a sect whose members had been in Wuhan. These people socialized mainly with themselves, which made it a bit easier to find, test, and quarantine people. Also, again, if I'm not mistaken, they also have the "mask culture", as does Hong Kong.
