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Health New Coronavirus in China

Salento said:
@Angela I think they use the Toilet Paper for multiple purposes, blowing your nose, cleaning, and even for a temporary home-made mask (with duct tape).

@Duarte send some more Toilet Paper, thank you. lol
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I told you great minds think alike. I also have a stash of masks, just in case. :) If I don't need them, they'll come in handy when blowing the leaves or sanding the new patio.

Anyone who thinks you can clean with toilet paper, as I'm sure you'll agree, never really cleans; turns to goop in two seconds.

Now, paper towels...I could write a book about paper towels. He buys more every time he goes out, and Clorox wet wipes, swifter dry and wet pads, you name it, so absolutely no need to stock up for any reason. He also has a thing about toilet paper, totally unrelated to COVID 19. I counted and we have 25 rolls. I know. :) I think he just likes to shop at Costco. Can men have nesting feelings?

Seriously, you don't need expensive sprays, as I keep on telling him, for all the good it does. 3 tablespoons of regular bleach in a gallon of water, or adjust ratios and put into empty spray bottles.

Who needs a pandemic? I've realized that we've somehow turned into hoarders just...because. :)
 
bicicleur said:
you should take into account geography
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bicicleur said:
all incoming planes from China were checked and passengers put in quarantaine, as was done in the US
but when the virus came via Italy, it was no more possible because the traffic crossing the border was a multitude of intercontinental traffic by plane
not only plaines crossed that border, also cars, busses and trains
furthermore all over the world supplies of corona virus testers have run out

and I don't know about Germany, but in Belgium almost all confirmed cases of Corona were imported from Italy
the difference is that it was possible to stop and controll all entering Blgium from China, but not from Italy

and what about the Brittish? has it less spread in Brittain than in Europe? it does not look like it
maybe it is a good measure to stop Europeans entering the US, but making an exception for Brittain and Ireland is lacking all logic
it will only delay the spread in the US, but it will spread there too

as for immigrants during the refugee crisis in 2015, Germany took more of them than Italy
but according to you it is always Italy against the rest of Europe
stop playing the victim

oh yes, and Maciamo is right, Belgium does have an efficient government, and it is not efficient
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In the Corona approach we see national differences pop up quite dominantly.

What about the Hofstede cultural dimensions and the Corona approach?

Here we see some difference on the different cultural dimensions, in this case the US,Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands (you can only apply 4).

qx7j970.49.14.png


I don't know what the consequences exactly are, just some guesses more powerful distance is a more authoritair approach from the government in acting on the virus, the more uncertainty avoidance the more stress and angst for the virus, and are the norms strict (restrained) or not (indulgence).

Based on this the support for strict, formal top down measure to control the stress would be biggest in .....Belgium.

And it looks like if Belgium and the Netherlands aren't neighboring countries as if there is some canyon between them. In fact I drive into Belgium almost without knowing. Anyway the support for strict formal and autoritair measures will be much bigger in Belgium than in the Netherlands (or the US), the see the already in the approach the schools are closed in Belgium in the Netherlands they still are open.

The uncertainty avoidance is in Belgium the biggest of all countries....so the stress about the virus will be also the biggest?

Italy seems to be ....very strict in social norms. And quite cynical and pessimistic. Will the corona virus depress the Italians?

The Netherlands are very feminine.....so the care for the vulnerable in the corona crisis will be important.

More observations, expectations in the corona approach based on this?

https://www.hofstede-insights.com/country-comparison/
 
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Certainly in these situations of hoarding of genders and provisions some irrational component takes place while it should be better managed.


But in this specific case I wouldn't blame it completely, given that there is also a basic rationality, namely that having good quantities at home allows us to thin out our outings and possible dangerous gatherings in shops (for a couple of weeks the entrance to the supermarkets is staggered, you have access to the premises in very small groups).
 
Maciamo said:
My extrapolations from the data are based on 2 assumptions:

1) That the case fatality rate is about 0.8% like in South Korea and like the new official estimates mentioned in the BBC article I linked. I think this is a safe assumption.

2) That the diffusion of the virus increase 10x every 8 days in average. That's the actual average I calculated based on real data for each country. However it is true that the number of reported cases depend a lot on the availability of tests, medical staff and the criteria for being allowed to test for Covid-19. Furthermore, my data showed that the diffusion rate was actually slower in Italy and Iran than elsewhere, with a 10x growth achieved after 11 days instead of 8. I checked again with today's data, and it took 12 days to pass from 1700 to 17,000 cases in Italy. If I recalculate based on a 10 fold increase in 12 days instead of 8, the we only get 15 million cases now instead of 150 million. So you are right, not everyone could be infected yet.
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A little addendum.

1) Fatality rate : I said that 0.8-0.9% now seemed a reasonable estimate. But actually, it is very probably going to vary considerably between some countries worldwide depending on the age structure. For example African countries have a very young population. The median age in Africa is barely 19.7 years old! Only a 3% of Africans are over 65 years old in average (see stats by country) as opposed to 28% in Japan, 23% in Italy, and generally between 18% and 22% in the rest of Europe. Therefore, even if the African whole continent gets infected by Covid-19, the fatality rate is going to be much lower, despite the low availability of ICU units.

The youngest developed countries are Singapore (11%), Israel (13%), then Ireland, Luxembourg, North Macedonia, Albania and Cyprus (all 14% of the population over 65 years old). The United States, Australia and New Zealand (all 16% of the population over 65 years old) are also considerably younger than the European average.

In other words, the CFR should logically be higher in old countries like Italy, Portugal, Germany, Finland, Greece and Japan, but lower in places like the USA and Israel and in all developing countries (including Russia, Mexico, Brazil and China).

2) Diffusion speed : After reflection, the virus should spread faster in places with high population density and geographic barriers to travel (such as a flat landscape and lots of motorways connecting cities). Based on this, countries like the Netherlands and Belgium are ideal for a fast propagation. That's also why it makes sense that the virus propagates more slowly in Italy and Iran (11-12 days to increased 10 fold, against 6 days in Belgium) as those are both extended and mountainous countries, with two main islands in the case of Italy, and large deserts in Iran. Having had the experience to drive a car through the Apennines in central Italy, I can assure you that this is slow and time consuming. On the other hand, the Po Valley is very flat and very well connected and this is exactly where we observed the fastest spread of the virus. So geography matters. In the USA, remote regions of the Rocky Mountains (Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah) or the Appalachians (West Virginia) are likely to be better sheltered than the big population centres along the coast of around the Great Lakes.

Taking into account all these factors makes the task considering more arduous to forecast the speed and fatality rate in each region. But at least we get a good idea of where it's going to spread fastest at first, and which populations are more at risk age-wise.

Here are maps showing the percentage of the population over 65 in Europe and the USA.

OMF0726-TiPSE_old_age_dep_ratio_01-1250x1443.png


USA_over_65.png


Then, as I mentioned before, air pollution is an aggravating factor. Northern Italy has no luck as it has one of the worst air pollution combined with one of the oldest population in Europe, and diffusion is facilitated by a flat landscape and high population density. When we think about it, all the risk factors were present for the region to be hit worst. It's not because it started earlier but because these factors caused the most fatalities the faster within Europe that it attracted all the attention.

The industrial cities of Saxony (Leipzig, Dresden, Zwickau, Chemnitz) in East Germany are also polluted and have one of oldest population in Europe too, so this region is likely to be hit hard as well. Geography slowed the arrival of the virus there, but it will catch up soon.
 
Thanks Maciamo for this clear kind of updates!

I like to add a factor.

3. The Poor and Marginalized Will Be the Hardest Hit by Coronavirus (with link)

Yet disease prevention is about more than health systems, as critical as they are. Preventing disease means attending to the conditions from which poor health can emerge. In particular, it means acting when these conditions create pockets of marginalization that put certain populations at disproportionate risk of disease, as we have seen during this outbreak. Older populations, and people with preexisting diseases, are at greater risk of dying from COVID-19. Obesity-related conditions, for example, seem to worsen the effect of this disease.
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Your posting:
In the USA, remote regions of the Rocky Mountains (Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah) or the Appalachians (West Virginia) are likely to be better sheltered than the big population centres along the coast of around the Great Lakes.
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For example the Appalachians is extreme vulnerable for the this factor.

A map of 'unhealthy' behavior that is connected with the poor and marginalized (more junk food etc.):

83wb4mg4cio.11.00.png





https://www.fastcompany.com/3061216/america-has-millions-of-working-poor-heres-where-they-are

I could not find such maps of Europe.
 
I don't want to sound callous and cynical but maybe governments aren't tackling the crisis properly on purpose because it's advantageous for them if lots of elderly people die. That's less pensions to pay. In an ageing society where governments debts run high, this kind of virus targeting mostly the over 65 is a boon. Disgusting if true, but worse things have happened in history not so long ago.
 
Meanwhile, New Yorkers with second/summer homes are moving out of NYC to Connecticut, Long Island, Upstate NY.
 
Coriolan said:
I don't want to sound callous and cynical but maybe governments aren't tackling the crisis properly on purpose because it's advantageous for them if lots of elderly people die. That's less pensions to pay. In an ageing society where governments debts run high, this kind of virus targeting mostly the over 65 is a boon. Disgusting if true, but worse things have happened in history not so long ago.
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Right now, the mortality rate for those 80 and above is only 8.3%. That means that 91.7% of the 80+ y.o. survive. You will need a lot more to die to make a difference in the sustainability of social security systems. Particularly in such counties as Portugal, Italy and Greece.
 
I do not know if it is commedy, or if it is irony, or even if it is epos
to me sounds like an ancient scenario of Tragedy and commedy, written by Euripides, τραγωκομμωδια



 
Yetos said:
I do not know if it is commedy, or if it is irony, or even if it is epos
to me sounds like an ancient scenario of Tragedy and commedy, τραγωκομμωδια



Click to expand...

The only thing that comes to my mind is a sort of apotropaic ritual
 
Stuvanè said:
The only thing that comes to my mind is a sort of apotropaic ritual
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to me, in my mind comes Euripides,
a theatrical action were choros after lots of moarn,
decides to stop moarning, fights its fear and destiny, and calls for divine help.
Fear is fought with socialization and common hope,
all wait next Next scene, a mechanical God appearance,
 
Yetos said:
I do not know if it is commedy, or if it is irony, or even if it is epos
to me sounds like an ancient scenario of Tragedy and commedy, τραγωκομμωδια



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Of course it's not comedy or irony. Perhaps it's because you don't know the words to the Italian anthem that you so completely misunderstood.


Brothers of Italy,
Italy has woken,
Bound Scipio's helmet
Upon her head.
Where is Victory?
Let her bow down,
For God created her
Slave of Rome.

Chorus:
Let us join in a cohort,
We are ready to die.
We are ready to die,
Italy has called.
Let us join in a cohort,
We are ready to die.
We are ready to die,
Italy has called, yes!

We were for centuries
downtrodden, derided,
because we are not one people,
because we are divided.
Let one flag, one hope
gather us all.
The hour has struck
for us to unite.

Chorus

Let us unite, let us love one another,
For union and love
Reveal to the people
The ways of the Lord.
Let us swear to set free
The land of our birth:
United, for God,
Who can overcome us?​

I've never been prouder of the country of my birth.

I've also been incredibly heartened by the remarks of support, admiration, actual love on that page. It's nice to be reminded that the haters, the racists, are in the minority amongst us.

To think that three weeks ago there were three identified patients in Italy.

I will try to have their attitude, but I have to confess I've been thinking too often of our "other" anthem, the incredibly beautiful operatic masterpiece "Va Pensiero" from our genius from Lombardia: Giuseppe Verdi.
[TABLE="width: 668"]
[TR]
[TD]a', pensiero, sull'ali dorate;[/TD]
[TD]Hasten thoughts on golden wings.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Va, ti posa sui clivi, sui colli,[/TD]
[TD]Hasten and rest on the densely wooded hills,[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ove olezzano tepide e molli[/TD]
[TD]where warm and fragrant and soft[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]l'aure dolci del suolo natal![/TD]
[TD]are the gentle breezes of our native land![/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Del Giordano le rive saluta,[/TD]
[TD]The banks of the Jordan we greet[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]di Sionne le torri atterrate…[/TD]
[TD]and the towers of Zion.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Oh mia Patria sì bella e perduta![/TD]
[TD]O, my homeland, so beautiful and lost![/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]O membranza sì cara e fatal![/TD]
[TD]O memories, so dear and yet so deadly![/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Arpa d'or dei fatidici vati,[/TD]
[TD]Golden harp of our prophets,[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]perché muta dal salice pendi?[/TD]
[TD]why do you hang silently on the willow?[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Le memorie nel petto raccendi,[/TD]
[TD]Rekindle the memories of our hearts,[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ci favella del tempo che fu![/TD]
[TD]and speak of the times gone by![/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]O simile di Solima ai fati,[/TD]
[TD]Or, like the fateful Solomon,[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]traggi un suono di crudo lamento;[/TD]
[TD]draw a lament of raw sound;[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]o t'ispiri il Signore un concento[/TD]
[TD]or permit the Lord to inspire us[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]che ne infonda al patire virtù![/TD]
[TD]to endure our suffering![/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

At another period of trials for Italy, in response to cries and pleas from the crowd, and shouts of "VIVA ITALIA", our great opera conductor Riccardo Muti allowed the audience to sing the chorus. Where else would that be possible?

It breaks my heart: O mia patria, si bella e perduta.

As for the second video, one of our defining characteristics, I believe, is the strength of our bonds with other human beings. We will never cease embracing one another, even if it has to done virtually for now.
 
Yetos said:
to me, in my mind comes Euripides,
Next scene is a mechanical God appearance,
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LOL ahah it could be... :D

In Lombardy the Deus ex machina could be Guido Bertolaso, former head of the national civil protection some years ago. The governor of Lombardy has decided to call him as a consultant to coordinate the emergency in the region. Too long, too heavy and unnecessary bureaucracy from Rome...
 
This: "Fear is fought with socialization and common hope."

Forza, Stuvane. As Dottore Cecconi explained, there will be no sign of a decrease for at least two weeks from the lock down.

Let's pray it then starts to go down.
 
@angela

i repeat my post,

to me, in my mind comes Euripides,
a theatrical action were choros after lots of moarn,
decides to stop moarning, fights its fear and destiny, and calls for divine help.
Fear is fought with socialization and common hope,
all wait next Next scene, a mechanical God appearance,


The best way to transmit common hope, and create socialization is singing all together,
I think in every country the most common song that unites is national anthem
and everybody knows it,
 
Yetos said:
@angela

i repeat my post,

to me, in my mind comes Euripides,
a theatrical action were choros after lots of moarn,
decides to stop moarning, fights its fear and destiny, and calls for divine help.
Fear is fought with socialization and common hope,
all wait next Next scene, a mechanical God appearance,


The best way to transmit common hope, and create socialization is singing all together,
I think in every country the most common song that unites is national anthem
and everybody knows it,
Click to expand...

Other than the "mechanical God" thing, or deus ex machina, we're on the same page. :)
 
Angela said:
Other than the "mechanical God" thing, or deus ex machina, we're on the same page. :)
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ok
Christian vs pagan aproach,

but do not blaime me, if we 'see' new 'Saints' this era,
 
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