Hi folks,
I am quite impressed. Now let's see.
I am aware of the Clovis/Solutr?en theory. In fact that was how I came across this problem, even though Bradley and Stanford, as far as the DNA is concerned, only talk about mtDNA (the haplogroup X), not about Y-DNA. What I wanted to know was if anybody could think of any alternative models to explain R1b in America. Because, beyond the fact that it is fascinating, it poses some very general problems. More later.
I think that the Vikings are not the source - the frequency of haplogroup I is too low, of R1a far too low (Bolnick shows one haplotype that is predicted as R1a, and two that might be R1a or I1 - whereas the clear I1's are 17 haplotypes). And R1b is too high for Viking origin.
The Clovis/Solutr?en theory, however, sounds extremely fascinating, but so far the evidence does not seem to be convincing (to me, that is).
The key to the modern research were the arrowheads found in the United States, that were exactly the same as European material in the same period.
Asian arrowhead (or spearheads) were made in a different way.
Bradley talks a lot about how these things were made, and so far I haven't understood the differences between overshot flaking and other ways of making flint blades. But if one takes a look at the (beautiful) Clovis points and the (likewise beautiful) Solutr?en points, they don't seem to be really similar.
Next problem is that Clovis is too young for a direct connection to Solutr?en - there is several thousand years in between. The pre-Clovis horizon in the Eastern US might do it, timewise, but the artifacts found so far have even less similarity with the Solutr?en material. At least so it seems to me. I'm not yet sure about the new Buttermilk Creek site in Texas, but that is so far west that they might as well have come from the Northwest.
I dunno... the last Ice Age ended nearly 12,000 years ago. That's far before the I1 MRCA and also before R1b is likely to have reached Western Europe. In fact, that's pre-Clovis culture IIRC. If we had Ice Age European Y-DNA amongst American natives, we would expect something like I*, I2*, or I2b.
That is exactly the point. Because:
If they really went via the ice bridge from Biscay to Newfoundland, which I find a fascinating idea, they must have done so before the end of the Ice Age. In fact I personally am not sure if it would have been possible during the LGM (Last Glacial Maximum) because I am not sure if the ice bridge really went down south that far. There are, however, rather short periods (a few hundred years each) called Heinrich events, in which the sea currents seem to have been very different from LGM/Ice Age conditions AND modern conditions, and in which ice seems to have gone pretty far down south. Those Heinrich events seem to be caused by large amounts of iceberg breakoffs somewhere between Canada and Greenland, and their drifting south changed the salt content of the water and, with that, the currents, not too different from the scenario in "The Day After Tomorrow".
In any case, either way they then would have to have come before about 17000 years before now. Which would, as far as the current scientific opinions about mutation rates are concerned, be far too early for R1b getting over there, even if one takes the slow Zhivotovsky "evolutionary" rate and not the three times higher "genealogical" rate. ... That was why I got interested in this because I was trying to find a solution for the mutation rate problem, and the ice bridge transfer would have been an absolute terminus ante quem for the existence of R1b in Western Europe, and a definite upper limit for the mutation rate.
As far as the mt-haplogroup X (in fact X2a, plus one stray type called X2g) is concerned, I am not really convinced. As far as I've understood, there are no close parallels to this group anywhere. I tried to understand the current mtDNA haplogroup tree, and to me it seemed that the closest "neighbour" of X2a is X2j, which was found in the Egyptian desert. The Eurasian groups are X2b, c, and d. The one found in Siberia is X2e.
Of course, mtDNA would be a much stronger point against the post-Columbian European settlers having brought in the DNA, because one can imagine traders having children with Indian women to a certain extent, but that wouldn't explain female European DNA there.
The next problem is: so far, we are assuming that they were NOT able to cross the ocean by ship/boat. What if they were? Well - of course that would mean that my attempt to nail down the age of R1b and the mutation rate would not work. Pity, but could not be helped.
This is something I came across only very recently. Long ago, Thor Heyerdahl tried to prove that it was possible to sail from, say, Gibraltar, to America, landing somewhere in the Caribbean. He thought that it was not possible to do it the other way round, because of the current and the wind you'd have to cross against. Now a German biologist tried exactly that with a reed boat a few years ago, starting in New York. He had to give up the boat a few hundred miles before the Azores, but he will be trying again with a new boat next year. Some of the arguments he brings for a more or less regular traffic via the Atlantic is tobacco in Egypt, Solutr?en and Magdal?nien cave paintings that show sea animals and possibly boats, and some sort of gourd which can be found on both sides of the pond and is genetically too old/diverse to have been transferred recently. - The Newfoundland Dog might indeed be another argument (anyway, what were Portuguese fishermen doing in Newfoundland in the beginning of the 16th century??).
wolfswald