Sardinian Y-DNA Phylogeny per Francalacci et al. 2013

Isnt M458 also a sub-clade of Z282;

so shouldnt it be 12x Z282 [6x* / 5x Z280 / 1x M458 (L1029+)]

just asking;

You are right that M458 is under Z282, but it is still 11x Z282. I should have inserted the M458 inside the brackets). Will correct now.
 
My comments below are actually reposted from the Molgen forum where Maciamo's post was reposted yesterday. :)


The above numbers are a bit confusing. For example, there were no P25* cases in that Sardinian sample, and all R1b members were actually P25+, so those 29 cases of P25 from your list are actually all members of clade V88.
Generally, there were 214 R1b people tested in that sample and this included 29 members of V88 and 185 members of M269.
The M269 group was further divided into the large clade L23 (175 people) and a much smaller M269* group represented by 10 people belonging to a new (relatively young) subclade of M269 (a novel sister clade of L23).



I would rather say that it is P312 (including of course U152) that is a dominant form of R1b in Sardinia, as the L23 group included only six members of L23(xL51), three members of L51(xL11), three cases of L11(xP312,Z381) and two cases of Z381 (a subclade of U106, though it should be noted that U106 itself was not analyzed). The remaining 161 people were all P312+, and this included 128 members of U152, as you have rightly noticed.



These numbers do not seem to be correct. Those 15 R1a members were all R1a-Z645, and in addition to those 11 members of Z282 you have mentioned, there were actually four cases of Z93, including three people tested as Z94+ (all of them indeed Z2123+).

The Z282 group included indeed five Z280 members, but all six remaining Z282 members were likely M458+ (although M458 was not tested, but their M458+ status could be deduced from the positive PF6155 and PF7521 results). Generally, there is a problem with an insufficient SNP detection rate for haplogroup R1a (and generally for all lineages that were not well represented in that Sardinian sample). For example, the only case recognized as L1029+ was assigned as negative for PF6155 and PF7521 (both being upstream of L1029). As for the entire group of eleven Z282 members, only three of them were tested as Z282+ and four were tested as Z283+ (so the Z283/Z282+ status of the entire group was based on some downstream markers only). All this makes it quite likely that all those M458 members identified in Sardinia were either L1029+ or L260+ (as the region encompassing L260 was most likely not analysed).

In addition to Z282 and Z283, there is another new SNP marker uniting M458 and Z280 called CTS11197 (not found in the Z93 branch). Since this mutation was initially identified in the 1KG project, I suspect that it is shared with Z284 (otherwise somebody would have noticed that it separates M458 and Z280 from Z284), but it would be of course reasonable to verify it.

As for the Z280 group, it includes one individual that is likely negative for both CTS1211 and CTS3607. Intriguingly, he is positive for a marker called CTS4648 that was first identified in a 1KG sample (though I don't know in which one). Importantly, this particular marker is included into the Geno 2.0 chip but no R1a member has been tested positive for it, so far.

The remaining four Z280 members seem to be positive for CTS1211 and CTS3607, and I suspect that three of them belong to a specific subclade of CTS1211 (or even a subclade of CTS3402, although CTS3402 was probably not analysed), as they all were positive for at least 12 markers downstream of CTS1211, including CTS8816 (first identified in a 1KG sample but not included into Geno 2.0).



I don't think that connecting L1029 with Vandals (and generally with some early Germanic tribes) is a reasonable assumption, but let's wait for some aDNA data. :)

Thanks for your input. I had already corrected this post after re-reading myself two days ago, but I had not realised that the six Z282+ members had been tested for PF6155 and PF7521 and could therefore be listed as M458+.

Regarding the Vandals, I added an explanation yesterday about the probable assimilation of Proto-Slavic people when the Vandals stayed in Poland, before invading the Roman Empire. Adding the two I2a1b-M423 samples in Sardinia, it looks like 40% of the Vandals' male lineages came from Poland rather than Sweden.
 
Regarding the Vandals, I added an explanation yesterday about the probable assimilation of Proto-Slavic people when the Vandals stayed in Poland, before invading the Roman Empire. Adding the two I2a1b-M423 samples in Sardinia, it looks like 40% of the Vandals' male lineages came from Poland rather than Sweden.
That's interesting. I wrote 2-3 years ago somewhere on this web site that I suspected Vandals to be a mixture of Germanic and Slavic tribes, with Germanic language as dominant.
 
That's interesting. I wrote 2-3 years ago somewhere on this web site that I suspected Vandals to be a mixture of Germanic and Slavic tribes, with Germanic language as dominant.

Slavic?

you mean Sarmatian , actually Iazyges tribe of the Sarmatians
Around 230, the Asding Vandals pushed in to the north of the Iazyges.

David Faux already mentioned this scenario in his paper - "Norse coming from central Asia" ( or something similar title along these lines).

The sarmatians disappeared from history as soon as they made contact with the Vandals
 
I don't see the point of analysing the European Y-chromosomal phylogeny from a Sardinian standpoint...
I don't think that's the purpose of Sparkey's thread. Where is he tying Sardinian genetics to a larger theme? I'm not seeing it... But anyway I do think it's useful to take a peek at this island because it is so far removed from the norm. What speaks to me is the echo of the whole "boats, horses, and farming" set up that has been repeated on a macro-level throughout the European theater. (With hg. I having boats, R1b having the horses, and G2a, E1, and J tending the earliest farms.) My island refuge theory holds up with these more detailed reports, but it looks like I2 would have landed on an island that was already settled-- probably rather thinly-- by some G, J, and E members.
 
R1b would have folded in later chasing the rich mining capacities. Their biggest influx would have probably started with the Romans (maybe even earlier) and continued through the Middle Ages. Lots of metal in that rocky island!
 
The Arabs never colonised Sardinia.

There were only 3 R1a-Z2123 samples in Sardinia, i.e. 0.25% of the population. That is consistent with the very minor size of the Alanic contingent, and in good proportion to the 34 samples that could be of Vandalic origin (2.8%).

It's even more consistent with the fact that Arabs never colonized Sardinia, but Sicily, Southern Italy and North Africa were, and they're nearby.

In other words, you have to do better than that to prove an Alanic link here.
 
David Faux already mentioned this scenario in his paper - "Norse coming from central Asia" ( or something similar title along these lines).

Norse R1a isn't of Central Asian origin.

So far only one Central Asian R1a-Z94 has been found in Scandinavia, and that belongs to a Swede with possible Tatar ancestry.
 
But anyway I do think it's useful to take a peek at this island because it is so far removed from the norm. What speaks to me is the echo of the whole "boats, horses, and farming" set up that has been repeated on a macro-level throughout the European theater. (With hg. I having boats, R1b having the horses, and G2a, E1, and J tending the earliest farms.) My island refuge theory holds up with these more detailed reports, but it looks like I2 would have landed on an island that was already settled-- probably rather thinly-- by some G, J, and E members.

How Strabo described Sardinia;

Strabo - Book V
The greater part of Sardo is rugged and not at peace, though much of it has also soil that is blessed with all products — especially with grain.........for in summer the island is unhealthful, particularly in the fruitful districts; and it is precisely these districts that are continually ravaged by those mountaineers who are now called Diagesbes.........There are four tribes of the mountaineers, the Parati, the Sossinati, the Balari, and the Aconites, and they live in caverns; but if they do hold a bit of land that is fit for sowing, they do not sow even this diligently; instead, they pillage the lands of the farmers — not only of the farmers on the island, but they actually sail against the people on the opposite coast, the Pisatae in particular.


The Neolithic farming site at Treilles (France) turned up with I2a1;
However the ratio was 20x G2a and 2x I2a1;
Whereas in Sardinia the (modern-day) ratio is still almost 4 to 1 in favor of I2a1a(M26) over G2a;

from the current study - Francalacci et al 2013
38.7% --- I2a1a(M26)
10.9% --- G2a

Hence Raiding and Piracy was far more common than Farming in Sardinia;
Despite the island being blessed with Grain and Fruitful areas;

The only substantial ref. point in pre-Roman Sardinia is the [Bronze-age / Iron-age] Nuragic civilization;
Stretching from 1800 BC (Bonnanaro culture) - 238 BC (Roman Conquest)

Nuragic votive-ship miniature from Bronze-age Sardinia
zmeq.png
 
I would like to investigate what percentage of Y-DNA in Sardinia can be attributed to the Phoenicians. Since the Arabs, Greeks or Etruscans didn't settle in Sardinia, all the Southwest Asian and most of the West Asian Y-DNA in Sardinia that is not of Neolithic origin ought to have come through the Phoenicians.

I have revised the Y-DNA frequencies for Sardinia, adding the Francalacci data to the previous data.

Three haplogroups in Sardinia were almost certainly brought by the Phoenicians to Sardinia, because they aren't normally found in the rest of Europe. These are J1-P58, R1b-V88 and R2, of which the Sardinians have an average of respectively 4%, 2.5% and 0.8%.

The Phoenicians also surely brought J2, E1b1b, G2a and T, but so did Neolithic farmers and probably also the Romans. The difficulty lies in sorting out how much E1b1b and J2 is Phoenician and how much is Roman or Neolithic. J1 in itself could be of Neolithic origin, apart from the fact that Sardinian J1 belongs exclusively to the P58 subclade, and most of it is positive for the typically Semitic L147.1 mutation, thought to represent the descendants of Abraham (who lived circa 1700 BCE, during the Late Bronze Age, half a millennium before the start of the Phoenician colonisation). That subclade is therefore too young to be of Neolithic origin, and too Southwest Asian to be of Greco-Roman or Etruscan origin.

Based on modern frequencies in Lebanon, J2 is only slightly higher than J1 (26% against 20%). That is almost exactly the same proportion as among Jewish people. Therefore there is a good chance that the Phoenicians also had a similar proportion. If that is the case, 4 to 5% of Sardinian J2 would be Phoenician. But it could be just 1.5% or 2% if the Phoenicians really had a J1/J2 proportion intermediary between modern Jordanians and Saudis.

E1b1b is slightly lower than J1, so perhaps 3 to 3.5% of Sardinian E1b1b can be considered Phoenician.

Haplogroup T is at 5% in Lebanon, 1/4 of J1. That would give us 1% of Phoenician T, and 0.5% of Neolithic and/or Roman.

Haplogroup G is found at 1/3 of the frequency of J1 in Lebanon. G2a is at 12% in Sardinia, so 4% could be Phoenician.

There is 8% of R1b in Lebanon, but according to the largest study on Lebanese Y-DNA V88 is only a small minority of the R1b lineages. Most are M269 or downstream (presumably L23). So there could be 4% of Phoenician R1b in Sardinia, the same as G2a, which is in agreement with the modern Lebanese frequencies.

As mentioned above, R1a-Z93 and Q1a3c could also be Phoenician, but could just as well be Alanic.

Haplogroup L, A and E1a could all have been brought by the Phoenicians. This would add up to 1.6% of Phoenician Y-DNA.

Overall I estimate that between 16% and 24% of Sardinian paternal lineages are of Phoenician origin. It is only slightly higher than the autosomal DNA. That would mean that the Phoenicians brought their women with them to their colonies and did not intermarry a lot with local women - at least in the case of Sardinia.


UPDATE 1:

In addition to the Phoenician Y-DNA there is 5.5% of North African E-M81 in Sardinia. It is likely that most of it came to Sardinia when the island was part of the Phoenician/Carthaginian empire. This subclade of E1b1b can neither be considered Neolithic nor Roman. 1% of Lebanese Y-DNA is E-M81. Not enough to account for more than a tiny fraction of the 5.5%.

E-M123, which makes up 2% of Sardinian lineages, is much higher in the Levant than in Europe, meaning that most of it could be of Phoenician origin, leaving perhaps 1.5% or 2% of Phoenician E-M78, and the rest of Neolithic origin. If that is true, then the Romans would have practically not contributed to any E1b1b in Sardinia. The alternative would be that either Neolithic farmers and/or the Phoenicians had much less E1b1b than thought. Anyway it is certain from this study that the Romans carried a much higher percentage of R1b-U152 than of E1b1b.

As for J2, even if Neolithic farmers had none of it, the Romans could only have brought between 2% and 6% to Sardinia once the Phoenician J2 is deducted. It is still a far cry from the 10.5% of R1b-U152.


UPDATE 2:

Here is the breakdown of Lebanese J2 subclades.

- J2a1 : 15.3%
-- J2a1b (M67) : 7.8%
- J2b (M12) : 2.7%

Deeper subclades were not tested, but according to the FTDNA Project, J2a1h2a1-L70 appears to be the most common subclade in Lebanon.

Here is the Sardinian breakdown:

- J2a* (M410) : 0.6%
-- J2a1* (L26) : 1.3%
--- J2a1b (M67) : 1.5% (including 0.7% of J2a1b1-M92)
--- J2a1h (L24) : 2% (including 0.4% of J2a1h2a1-L70)
-- J2a2 (L581) : 0.8% (including 0.25% of J2a2a-P279)
- J2b (M12) : 2% (including 1.6% of J2b2-M241)

The three most common subclades in Sardinia, M67, L24 and M12 are all well represented in Lebanon and could therefore be of Phoenician origin. I would need more details on Lebanese subclades to determine whether L581 could also be Levantine. The problem is that all these subclades are also found on the Italian mainland, so it is of little help to separate the Phoenician from the Roman lineages.


UPDATE 3 :

Out of the 11% of G2a in this study, 3.3% is L91+, a subclade typical of North Africa, and also found in Sicily. Since it isn't found in Lebanon, but sometimes pops up in northern Europe, it is most likely of Neolithic origin.

The rest of G2a includes:

- G2a3a (M406) : 0.8% => found in Lebanon but also throughout Europe.
- G2a3b1* (P303) : 2.1% => potentially Indo-European, could be Roman.
-- G2a3b1a1 (U1) : 0.9% (all L13+ or L1266+) => very probably Indo-European, Celto-Italic, Roman.
-- G2a3b1a2 (L497) : 0.5% => very strongly mirrors the distribution of R1b-P312, and especially U152. Almost certainly Roman.
-- G2a3b1a3a (Z1903) : 2.4%
 
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I don't think Phoenicians had that much of a genetic impact. The phoenicians were first and foremost commercial people, traders ... they didn't made big settlements, just port-towns along coast-lines, for their comnmercial purposes, but rarely penetrating inside the lands where they went, or blending with local cultures and people. Their legacy is mostly cultural.
 
I would like to investigate what percentage of Y-DNA in Sardinia can be attributed to the Phoenicians. Since the Arabs, Greeks or Etruscans didn't settle in Sardinia, all the Southwest Asian and most of the West Asian DNA in Sardinia ought to have come through the Phoenicians.

Autosomal DNA

Based on the Dodecad's K=12 autosomal admixtures, the Sardinians have 6.2% of Southwest Asian and 4.6% of West Asian admixture (along with 55.5% of Mediterranean). Modern Lebanese, the presumed descendants of the Phoenicians, have 23.9% of Southwest Asian, 32.4% of West Asian, and 28.8% of Mediterranean.

Since Ötzi had very little West Asian and no Southwest Asian admixture, it is relatively safe to think that Neolithic farmers didn't bring those admixtures, and that it is consequently of Phoenician or Roman origin. Modern Central Italians have 7.2% of Southwest Asian and 21.6% of West Asian, but since they are certainly not representative of admixtures of ancient Romans of the Republic since ancient Rome became a huge melting pot during the empire and completely changed the gene pool of central Italy.

We could calculate the proportion of Phoenician vs Roman by looking at the Southwest Asian vs West Asian ratio. For the Phoenicians it is 3/4. For the Central Italians it is 1/3. Sardinians are unique in having more Southwest Asian than West Asian. Their ratio is the same as the Phoenicians by inverted. That makes them intermediary between modern Jordanians and Saudis. As a result, it can be envisaged that the Phoenicians had a higher proportion of J1 to J2 than modern Lebanese. It's actually hard to see how the Romans could have contributed any West Asian admixture at all, since they would have raised its proportion to the Southwest Asian admixture to around 50-50 (unless of course the ancient Romans had more Southwest Asian than West Asian, but I cannot imagine how this could be). So it is very possible that all the Southwest Asian and almost all the West Asian in Sardinia is of Phoenician origin. If that is the case, then around 5% of Mediterranean admixture could also be Phoenician, bring the total of autosomal DNA of Phoenician origin to approximately 16%. Let's see if similar proportions can be obtained from Y-DNA


Y-DNA

I have revised the Y-DNA frequencies for Sardinia, adding the Francalacci data to the previous data. The Sardinians now have an average of 4% of J1, 2.5% of R1b-V88, and 0.8% of R2, the three haplogroups that are most strongly correlated with the Phoenician homeland in modern Lebanon. They also surely brought J2, E1b1b, G2a and T, but so did Neolithic farmers and probably also the Romans. The difficulty lies in sorting out how much E1b1b and J2 is Phoenician and how much is Roman or Neolithic.

Based on modern frequencies in Lebanon, J2 is only slightly higher than J1 (26% against 20%). That is almost exactly the same proportion as among Jewish people. Therefore there is a good chance that the Phoenicians also had a similar proportion. If that is the case, 4 to 5% of Sardinian J2 would be Phoenician. But it could be just 1.5% or 2% if the Phoenicians really had a J1/J2 proportion intermediary between modern Jordanians and Saudis.

E1b1b is slightly lower than J1, so perhaps 3 to 3.5% of Sardinian E1b1b can be considered Phoenician.

Haplogroup T is at 5% in Lebanon, 1/4 of J1. That would give us 1% of Phoenician T, and 0.5% of Neolithic and/or Roman.

Haplogroup G is found at 1/3 of the frequency of J1 in Lebanon. G2a is at 12% in Sardinia, so 4% could be Phoenician.

There is 8% of R1b in Lebanon, but according to the largest study on Lebanese Y-DNA V88 is only a small minority of the R1b lineages. Most are M269 or downstream (presumably L23). So there could be 4% of Phoenician R1b in Sardinia, the same as G2a, which is in agreement with the modern Lebanese frequencies.

As mentioned above, R1a-Z93 and Q1a3c could also be Phoenician, but could just as well be Alanic.

Haplogroup L, A and E1a could all have been brought by the Phoenicians. This would add up to 1.6% of Phoenician Y-DNA.

Overall I estimate that between 16% and 24% of Sardinian paternal lineages are of Phoenician origin. It is only slightly higher than the autosomal DNA. That would mean that the Phoenicians brought their women with them to their colonies and did not intermarry a lot with local women - at least in the case of Sardinia.


UPDATE 1:

In addition to the Phoenician Y-DNA there is 5.5% of North African E-M81 in Sardinia. It is likely that most of it came to Sardinia when the island was part of the Phoenician/Carthaginian empire. This subclade of E1b1b can neither be considered Neolithic nor Roman. 1% of Lebanese Y-DNA is E-M81. Not enough to account for more than a tiny fraction of the 5.5%.

E-M123, which makes up 2% of Sardinian lineages, is much higher in the Levant than in Europe, meaning that most of it could be of Phoenician origin, leaving perhaps 1.5% or 2% of Phoenician E-M78, and the rest of Neolithic origin. If that is true, then the Romans would have practically not contributed to any E1b1b in Sardinia. The alternative would be that either Neolithic farmers and/or the Phoenicians had much less E1b1b than thought. Anyway it is certain from this study that the Romans carried a much higher percentage of R1b-U152 than of E1b1b.

As for J2, even if Neolithic farmers had none of it, the Romans could only have brought between 2% and 6% to Sardinia once the Phoenician J2 is deducted. It is still a far cry from the 10.5% of R1b-U152.

i really enjoy posts like this...........anyway, does MtDna play any part in this?
Sardinian subclade U5b3a1 of Haplogroup U (mtDNA) came from Provence to Sardinia by obsidian (Glass) merchants, as it is estimated that 80% of obsidian found in France comes from Monte Arci in Sardinia reflecting the close relations that existed at one time for these two regions.

Another interesting anomaly is the presence of H13a of Haplogroup H (mtDNA) is present in the island at around 9.2%. As this is an extremely rare subclade normally present in the Caucasus.
 
R1a+Z2123

Z2123 is very widespread from India to the Bashkirs to Germany. If it does prove to be Middle Eastern in origin I imagine it was probably brought into Sardinia during the Roman or Byzantine Empires. Or if Z2123 originated in the steppe, then the Alans are the likely source along with perhaps the Q1a3c.

It's not really too Slavic looking at all. The Z282 and Z280 are probably remnants from the Pomeranian Culture (650BCE-200BCE) and Lusatian Culture (1300 BCE - 500BCE) which are by most accounts Baltic with strong connections to the Nordic Bronze Age.

Need to know is What subclades R1a+Z2123 is it in Sardinia?

Which STR those in Sardinia, which SNP R1a+Z2123?

Bashkirs have three subclades R1a+Z2123:

Sakes-Dinlings 13 25 15 11 11-13 12 12 10 13 11 31
Wusuns 13 24 16 11 11-15 12 12 12 13 11 31
Massagetaes-Alans 13 25 16 11 11-14 12 12 10 12 11 29


They all are R1a+Z2123, the lifetime of a common ancestor according to calculations by Igor Rozhanskii = 4,300 years ago, or in other words 23 century BC

About Sakes-Dinlings sub-branch R1a+Z2123 the Bashkirs - there is an article in English.

In Karachays-Balkars peoples who live in the Caucasus, and they are direct descendants of the Alans - they have Massagetaes-Alans line R1a+Z2123.
 
Very interesting and intriguing exercise Maciamo.
 
Matches

Furnivall Italy 270161, R1a Unknown
14 25 16 11 11 15 12 12 10 13 11 29 15 9 10 11 11 24 14 20 36 12 15 15 16 11 12 19 23 16 15 18 19 35 39 13 11 11 8 17 17 8 12 10 8 11 10 12 22 22 15 10 12 12 14 8 15 23 21 12 12 11 13 11 11 12 13

Bostan Karachay (Caucas) 211933, R1a+Z2123
13 25 16 11 11 14 12 12 10 12 11 29 15 9 10 11 11 25 14 20 33 12 14 15 16 11 12 19 24 16 16 17 19 35 39 13 11 11 8 16 17 8 12 10 8 11 10 12 22 22 15 10 12 12 13 8 15 23 21 12 12 11 13 11 11 12 13

P.S. 13 steps between Bostan and Furnivall.
 
This is now the second study in a row that confirms R1b-U152 to be ~10% in Sardinia;

Boattini et al 2013 [82 samples] = 9.7% R1b-U152
http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0065441
Francalacci et al 2013 [1200 samples] = 10.7% R1b-U152
(current study)

Needless to say that only the Roman times and the Medieval times can be the source for this
substantial (every tenth Sardinian) amount of R1b-U152 in Sardinia;


I think the main source however; is def. the Medieval times;

David Abulafia - The New Cambridge Medieval History: Vol.V (1999)
As has been seen, Castel di Castro or Cagliari was founded by the Pisans in 1217, with imposing fortifications; and, even though settlement by Sards was prohibited, it rapidly grew to contain a population of several thousand (between 7,000 and 10,000 at the end of the thirteenth century).....In the same judgeship, in the south-west of Sardinia, Count Ugolino founded around 1250 the city of Iglesias, which was to grow within a couple of generations to a population not far below 10,000.....Another town which experienced growth was the reborn centre at Olbia, on the north-east coast of Sardinia; Civita or Terranova was described in a Pisan document as a quasi civitas.....This urbanisation was rendered possible by the emigration from the mainland, especially from Pisa and its contado;

Pisa and Genoa conquered Sardinia in 1016; The Pisans were greatly crippled by the Genoese at the Battle of Meloria (1284) and 40 years later lost control over Sardinia; Thats over 300 years with massive urbanisation (Tuscan migrations) across the 13th cen.

So in terms of R1b-U152
- what the medieval Lombards are for Sicily the medieval Tuscans are for Sardinia;
NW Italy (medieval Lombardy) = 32.2% R1b-U152 [161 samples] - Boattini et al 2013
Tuscany = 37.4% R1b-U152 [123 samples] - Boattini et al 2013
 
...
Needless to say that only the Roman times and the Medieval times can be the source for this
substantial (every tenth Sardinian) amount of R1b-U152 in Sardinia...

Have you considered the ancient Ligures? I think that is one of xxx's hypotheses.
[[[EDIT 08/14/2013: I can't find the posting from Rocca. His U152.org web link is down, but he may have been referring to Urnfield anyway. My mistake, although I still think the Ligures are consideration. ]]]
 
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I would like to investigate what percentage of Y-DNA in Sardinia can be attributed to the Phoenicians. Since the Arabs, Greeks or Etruscans didn't settle in Sardinia, all the Southwest Asian and most of the West Asian DNA in Sardinia ought to have come through the Phoenicians.

Autosomal DNA

Based on the Dodecad's K=12 autosomal admixtures, the Sardinians have 6.2% of Southwest Asian and 4.6% of West Asian admixture (along with 55.5% of Mediterranean). Modern Lebanese, the presumed descendants of the Phoenicians, have 23.9% of Southwest Asian, 32.4% of West Asian, and 28.8% of Mediterranean.

Since Ötzi had very little West Asian and no Southwest Asian admixture, it is relatively safe to think that Neolithic farmers didn't bring those admixtures, and that it is consequently of Phoenician or Roman origin. Modern Central Italians have 7.2% of Southwest Asian and 21.6% of West Asian, but they are certainly not representative of admixtures of ancient Romans of the Republic since ancient Rome became a huge melting pot during the empire and completely changed the gene pool of central Italy.

We could calculate the proportion of Phoenician vs Roman by looking at the Southwest Asian vs West Asian ratio. For the Phoenicians it is 3/4. For the Central Italians it is 1/3. Sardinians are unique in having more Southwest Asian than West Asian. Their ratio is the same as the Phoenicians by inverted. That makes them intermediary between modern Jordanians and Saudis. As a result, it can be envisaged that the Phoenicians had a higher proportion of J1 to J2 than modern Lebanese. It's actually hard to see how the Romans could have contributed any West Asian admixture at all, since they would have raised its proportion to the Southwest Asian admixture to around 50-50 (unless of course the ancient Romans had more Southwest Asian than West Asian, but I cannot imagine how this could be). So it is very possible that all the Southwest Asian and almost all the West Asian in Sardinia is of Phoenician origin. If that is the case, then around 5% of Mediterranean admixture could also be Phoenician, bring the total of autosomal DNA of Phoenician origin to approximately 16%. Let's see if similar proportions can be obtained from Y-DNA


Y-DNA

I have revised the Y-DNA frequencies for Sardinia, adding the Francalacci data to the previous data. The Sardinians now have an average of 4% of J1, 2.5% of R1b-V88, and 0.8% of R2, the three haplogroups that are most strongly correlated with the Phoenician homeland in modern Lebanon. They also surely brought J2, E1b1b, G2a and T, but so did Neolithic farmers and probably also the Romans. The difficulty lies in sorting out how much E1b1b and J2 is Phoenician and how much is Roman or Neolithic.

Based on modern frequencies in Lebanon, J2 is only slightly higher than J1 (26% against 20%). That is almost exactly the same proportion as among Jewish people. Therefore there is a good chance that the Phoenicians also had a similar proportion. If that is the case, 4 to 5% of Sardinian J2 would be Phoenician. But it could be just 1.5% or 2% if the Phoenicians really had a J1/J2 proportion intermediary between modern Jordanians and Saudis.

E1b1b is slightly lower than J1, so perhaps 3 to 3.5% of Sardinian E1b1b can be considered Phoenician.

Haplogroup T is at 5% in Lebanon, 1/4 of J1. That would give us 1% of Phoenician T, and 0.5% of Neolithic and/or Roman.

Haplogroup G is found at 1/3 of the frequency of J1 in Lebanon. G2a is at 12% in Sardinia, so 4% could be Phoenician.

There is 8% of R1b in Lebanon, but according to the largest study on Lebanese Y-DNA V88 is only a small minority of the R1b lineages. Most are M269 or downstream (presumably L23). So there could be 4% of Phoenician R1b in Sardinia, the same as G2a, which is in agreement with the modern Lebanese frequencies.

As mentioned above, R1a-Z93 and Q1a3c could also be Phoenician, but could just as well be Alanic.

Haplogroup L, A and E1a could all have been brought by the Phoenicians. This would add up to 1.6% of Phoenician Y-DNA.

Overall I estimate that between 16% and 24% of Sardinian paternal lineages are of Phoenician origin. It is only slightly higher than the autosomal DNA. That would mean that the Phoenicians brought their women with them to their colonies and did not intermarry a lot with local women - at least in the case of Sardinia.


UPDATE 1:

In addition to the Phoenician Y-DNA there is 5.5% of North African E-M81 in Sardinia. It is likely that most of it came to Sardinia when the island was part of the Phoenician/Carthaginian empire. This subclade of E1b1b can neither be considered Neolithic nor Roman. 1% of Lebanese Y-DNA is E-M81. Not enough to account for more than a tiny fraction of the 5.5%.

E-M123, which makes up 2% of Sardinian lineages, is much higher in the Levant than in Europe, meaning that most of it could be of Phoenician origin, leaving perhaps 1.5% or 2% of Phoenician E-M78, and the rest of Neolithic origin. If that is true, then the Romans would have practically not contributed to any E1b1b in Sardinia. The alternative would be that either Neolithic farmers and/or the Phoenicians had much less E1b1b than thought. Anyway it is certain from this study that the Romans carried a much higher percentage of R1b-U152 than of E1b1b.

As for J2, even if Neolithic farmers had none of it, the Romans could only have brought between 2% and 6% to Sardinia once the Phoenician J2 is deducted. It is still a far cry from the 10.5% of R1b-U152.


UPDATE 2:

Here is the breakdown of Lebanese J2 subclades.

- J2a1 : 15.3%
-- J2a1b (M67) : 7.8%
- J2b (M12) : 2.7%

Deeper subclades were not tested, but according to the FTDNA Project, J2a1h2a1-L70 appears to be the most common subclade in Lebanon.

Here is the Sardinian breakdown:

- J2a* (M410) : 0.6%
-- J2a1* (L26) : 1.3%
--- J2a1b (M67) : 1.5% (including 0.7% of J2a1b1-M92)
--- J2a1h (L24) : 2% (including 0.4% of J2a1h2a1-L70)
-- J2a2 (L581) : 0.8% (including 0.25% of J2a2a-P279)
- J2b (M12) : 2% (including 1.6% of J2b2-M241)

The three most common subclades in Sardinia, M67, L24 and M12 are all well represented in Lebanon and could therefore be of Phoenician origin. I would need more details on Lebanese subclades to determine whether L581 could also be Levantine. The problem is that all these subclades are also found on the Italian mainland, so it is of little help to separate the Phoenician from the Roman lineages.


UPDATE 3 :

Out of the 11% of G2a in this study, 3.3% is L91+, a subclade typical of North Africa, and also found in Sicily. Since it isn't found in Lebanon, but sometimes pops up in northern Europe, it is most likely of Neolithic origin.

The rest of G2a includes:

- G2a3a (M406) : 0.8% => found in Lebanon but also throughout Europe.
- G2a3b1* (P303) : 2.1% => potentially Indo-European, could be Roman.
-- G2a3b1a1 (U1) : 0.9% (all L13+ or L1266+) => very probably Indo-European, Celto-Italic, Roman.
-- G2a3b1a2 (L497) : 0.5% => very strongly mirrors the distribution of R1b-P312, and especially U152. Almost certainly Roman.
-- G2a3b1a3a (Z1903) : 2.4%

Both Oetzi and Gok 4 had about 7% S.W.Asian, and therefore it's extremely likely that it was indeed part of the genomic structure of the Neolithic farmers who made their way into Europe.
http://dienekes.blogspot.com/2012/04/first-look-at-dna-of-neolithic.html

G2a3a (M406) forms up to 50% of the G2a in the eastern Mediterranean. It is found very commonly in southern Italy. Various people have tried to tie its presence there to Greek and Balkan expansion, but it could be Neolithic, of course. Interesting that it's so low in Sardegna.
 
Have you considered the ancient Ligures? I think that is one of Richard Rocca's hypotheses.

The Ligures are a very very interesting point;
That truly deserves a thread of their own (still waiting on Taranis); - In full detail and explanation;

In whatever scenario the Ligures are a source for R1b-U152 (and i do believe they can be considered one)
It can not apply to Sardinia - since Sardinia was never settled by the Ligures;

Sardinia was mostly settled (pre-Roman 238BC) by Iberians, Phoenicians, Libyans and of course the local Mountaineer tribes - Parati / Sossinati / Balari / Aconites
who Strabo claims to be of a mythical backround - Iolaus (sons of Herakles);
and Pausanias mentions Trojans in Sardinia;

In this respect it is interesting to note that Bronze-age Sardinians clustered closest to Minoans and Bronze-age Iberians

Hughey et al 2013
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/journal/v4/n5/full/ncomms2871.html
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/journal/v4/n5/fig_tab/ncomms2871_T1.html

Whereas modern-day Sardinians are isolated and cluster the closest to neolithic corpses;


The Ligures as a source for R1b-U152 can only apply to Corsica and East Sicily (Siculi);
 
Have you considered the ancient Ligures? I think that is one of Richard Rocca's hypotheses.

Modern Ligurians have one of the highest frequency of R1b-P312* in Italy (nearly half of all R1b according to Boattini et al.) as well as some R1b-L21. But they have one of the lowest levels of R1b-U152 in northern Italy. Considering that, it would be fairly surprising that they brought exclusively U152 to Sardinia and no P312*. Since the Ligures were not even an Italic tribe but closer to the Celts I'd say that they were originally P312 and that the U152 in modern Liguria came from the Romans and intermarriages with other north-western Italians who have much higher levels of U152.

If there should be an alternative source of U152 to the Romans, I'd rather look at Corsicans and Tuscans settling in Sardinia since the Middle Ages. If only we could know the surnames who are U152 and their geographic distribution within Sardinia, that would greatly help determine how much could be Corscian/Tuscan.
 

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