Economy Shadow Economies

Jovialis

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Shadow economies of the world.


This makes perfect sense to me. This is exhibited in the USA as well among these groups. Polish people are among the thriftiest people I know, followed by the others.


This has nothing to do with crime, this is people not wanting the government to take their hard-earned money and waste it.
 
Very interesting. Thanks for sharing.

I found a 2017 IMF working paper with data on the shadow economy of 158 countries (bottom of the PDF) with the evolution in percentage of the whole economy over a 25 year period (1991-2015).

Looking at the 10-year average 2004-2015, the countries with the largest shadow economies were:


  1. Georgia : 64.8%
  2. Bolivia : 62.3%
  3. Zimbabwe : 60.6%
  4. Nigeria : 56.7%
  5. Guatemala : 54.7%
  6. Haiti : 53.3%
  7. Peru : 52.4%
  8. Tanzania : 52.2%
  9. Myanmar : 51.4%
  10. Thailand : 50.6%

The only countries with less than 10% of shadow economy were Switzerland (7.2%) and the USA (8.3%).

Here is a chart showing the data for European countries in 2017.

attachment.php


It would be interesting to compare the official GDP per capita of each country with the de facto one including the shadow economy.
 
Since I couldn't find the data online, I have calculated the adjusted GDP per capita at PPP of European countries and other developed countries by adding the share of the shadow economy ('SE' for short in the table below) to their GDP per capita. Shadow economies larger than 20% of GDP are in bold to help visualisation.


CountryGDP per capita (2022 - IMF)SE (2015)SE per capitaAdjusted GDP/capita
Luxembourg141,58710.414,725156,312
Ireland131,0349.612,579143,613
Switzerland84,4686.95,82890,296
Norway78,1271511,71989,846
United States76,34875,34481,692
Denmark69,84514.710,26780,112
Netherlands69,7147.85,43875,152
Iceland66,46612.48,24274,708
Belgium62,06517.811,04873,113
Malta56,33729.416,56372,900
Austria66,68096,00172,681
Sweden63,87711.77,47471,351
Germany63,8347.74,91568,749
Australia62,7148.15,08067,794
Finland58,65913.37,80266,461
Cyprus49,50432.215,94065,444
Canada58,2929.45,47963,771
Italy51,0612311,74462,805
France56,19911.66,51962,718
United Kingdom55,8628.34,63760,499
Slovenia49,96720.210,09360,060
Spain46,5512210,24156,792
New Zealand51,86094,66756,527
Lithuania46,15818.68,58554,743
Estonia46,12518.58,53354,658
Czech Republic48,91810.55,13654,054
Japan49,0438.24,02253,065
Hungary42,13220.58,63750,769
Poland42,46516.77,09249,557
Portugal42,06617.87,48849,554
Turkey38,75927.410,62049,379
Romania38,09622.98,72446,820
Croatia37,549238,63646,185
Greece36,46526.49,62746,092
Latvia38,12316.66,32844,451
Slovakia38,62011.24,32542,945
Russia31,96733.710,77342,740
Bulgaria29,17720.86,06935,246
Georgia19,7885310,48830,276
Belarus21,70932.37,01228,721
Bosnia17,89929.95,35223,251
Moldova16,48239.76,54323,025
Armenia16,798366,04722,845
Albania17,85826.24,67922,537
Ukraine14,15042.96,07020,220

Once the shadow economy is included, the countries that jumped the most places in the GDP per capita ranking are: Malta (17th => 10th), Cyprus (22nd => 16th), Italy (20th => 18th), Spain (25th => 22nd), and Greece (36th => 34th). In other words, Mediterranean Europe is richer than it appears on paper.

On the other hand some countries slipped down the ranking: Canada (15th => 17th), France (19th => 21st), United Kingdom (18th => 20th), Japan (23rd => 27th), Czechia (24th => 26th), and Slovakia (32nd => 36th).

There is less change in ranking at the bottom (Balkans and ex-USSR) as all these countries have substantial shadow economies.
 
Since I couldn't find the data online, I have calculated the adjusted GDP per capita at PPP of European countries and other developed countries by adding the share of the shadow economy ('SE' for short in the table below) to their GDP per capita. Shadow economies larger than 20% of GDP are in bold to help visualisation.


CountryGDP per capita (2022 - IMF)SE (2015)SE per capitaAdjusted GDP/capita
Luxembourg141,58710.414,725156,312
Ireland131,0349.612,579143,613
Switzerland84,4686.95,82890,296
Norway78,1271511,71989,846
United States76,34875,34481,692
Denmark69,84514.710,26780,112
Netherlands69,7147.85,43875,152
Iceland66,46612.48,24274,708
Belgium62,06517.811,04873,113
Malta56,33729.416,56372,900
Austria66,68096,00172,681
Sweden63,87711.77,47471,351
Germany63,8347.74,91568,749
Australia62,7148.15,08067,794
Finland58,65913.37,80266,461
Cyprus49,50432.215,94065,444
Canada58,2929.45,47963,771
Italy51,0612311,74462,805
France56,19911.66,51962,718
United Kingdom55,8628.34,63760,499
Slovenia49,96720.210,09360,060
Spain46,5512210,24156,792
New Zealand51,86094,66756,527
Lithuania46,15818.68,58554,743
Estonia46,12518.58,53354,658
Czech Republic48,91810.55,13654,054
Japan49,0438.24,02253,065
Hungary42,13220.58,63750,769
Poland42,46516.77,09249,557
Portugal42,06617.87,48849,554
Turkey38,75927.410,62049,379
Romania38,09622.98,72446,820
Croatia37,549238,63646,185
Greece36,46526.49,62746,092
Latvia38,12316.66,32844,451
Slovakia38,62011.24,32542,945
Russia31,96733.710,77342,740
Bulgaria29,17720.86,06935,246
Georgia19,7885310,48830,276
Belarus21,70932.37,01228,721
Bosnia17,89929.95,35223,251
Moldova16,48239.76,54323,025
Armenia16,798366,04722,845
Albania17,85826.24,67922,537
Ukraine14,15042.96,07020,220

Once the shadow economy is included, the countries that jumped the most places in the GDP per capita ranking are: Malta (17th => 10th), Cyprus (22nd => 16th), Italy (20th => 18th), Spain (25th => 22nd), and Greece (36th => 34th). In other words, Mediterranean Europe is richer than it appears on paper.

On the other hand some countries slipped down the ranking: Canada (15th => 17th), France (19th => 21st), United Kingdom (18th => 20th), Japan (23rd => 27th), Czechia (24th => 26th), and Slovakia (32nd => 36th).

There is less change in ranking at the bottom (Balkans and ex-USSR) as all these countries have substantial shadow economies.

Indeed, I can totally see that. People like my father had to work two jobs, one on the books, one off of it, in order to have enough money to pay for everything. This was a common place thing I've noticed among many people from his generation of immigrants.

Another example is the fish market in Bari, where the police allow fishermen to sell fish around the docks, despite being regulated. As well as old women making homemade orecchiette to sell, which is also technically against the law. But the authorities allow it, because it is a tradition, and it is a source of income for the people.
 
I think that GDP and unemployment data should take into account the size of a country's shadow economy. There may be people who moonlight on the side of their official job, but there are also people who are registered job seekers and in fact have a undeclared job. Since Mediterranean European countries have bigger shadow economies, that would also explain why they consistently have higher unemployment rates. In fact countries with very small shadow economies like the US, Japan and Switzerland have some of lowest unemployment rates in the world.
 
Speaking of Japan, I am looking forward to my trip there. I feel like I am finally going to see what a true first world country is like.


Japan is a great model for how a society should be, based on what I know of it.


Even if they are experiencing a low-birth rate, they are compensating for it with technological advancement. 3rd world immigration is merely a Band-Aid solution for the need for a capitalist society to keep expanding (and a caustic one at that, considering it creates an alien-underclass). Maybe the population doesn't need to keep expanding, and you can put more focus on Research and Development, to minimize cost, and increase productivity.


Is it any surprise, considering the Japanese have one of the highest IQ averages in the world? They are governed by logic, rather than emotion. People should follow their lead.

AI/robots is a problem-boogieman only in the West, because all of these low-skilled people they keep on bringing in will have absolutely no utility in the next 20 years. So what is the solution? Complain about AI, and how it is exclusionary.

Japan will have less people (more manageable), of higher intellect (higher quality people), and a robotic workforce (free labor). No problems there, from what I can see.

I as an individual, am already ahead of the curve. Not only do I have security, I am already utilizing NLP engineering in my official capacity. So I say, bring it on, I'm already prepared. The neo-luddites will perish from the face of the earth. Good.

If there are push-pull factors, I also have the resources to flee this country if need be, and re-establish my family elsewhere. Maybe in some future state that actually represents my ideals. The United States of America needs me more, than I need it.
 
I think that GDP and unemployment data should take into account the size of a country's shadow economy. There may be people who moonlight on the side of their official job, but there are also people who are registered job seekers and in fact have a undeclared job. Since Mediterranean European countries have bigger shadow economies, that would also explain why they consistently have higher unemployment rates. In fact countries with very small shadow economies like the US, Japan and Switzerland have some of lowest unemployment rates in the world.

I wonder if we look at Denmark (14,7) and the Netherlands (7,8) what could explain the differences....
 

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