The founding and migration of I2a2b

Here is a summary:

L161 may have been founded on the north German plain or near the mouth of the Dneister River on the Black Sea. That founder was an early version of Isles B.

The founding of the other Isles sublades are more easily generalized:

Isles A may be the easiest to locate. There are virtually no Isles A outside the British Isles, therefore the branching of Isles A from Isles B, about 5,700 to 5,200 years ago, occurred in Britain. Isles B was relatively successful early on resulting in a TMRCA of about 5,370 years. Isles A was not so lucky: something catastrophic, probably several catastrophies over a span of time, happened to Isles A that resulted in bottlenecks leading to the TMRCA of only 1,500 years.

The few surviving Isles A formed a diaspora to the north and west and Ireland. Isles B largely escaped that fate perhaps because they were further inland and had a better climate in Southwest England.

● Location of Isles C developing from Isles B - 4,500 y.a., and then branching off Isles D - 3,800 y.a.:

Isles C first branched off from Isles B rootstock about 4,500 years ago. Shortly thereafter, 700 years later, Isles D branched off from Isles C and the modern distribution of Isles D is heavily weighted to Ireland. That suggests that the branching was among people living in Ireland at that time. It also suggests that some Isles C went into Ireland about 4,000 years ago where Isles D was soon founded about 3,800 y.a.


● Further branching of the Subclades

Each of the subclades has branched. There are now A1, A2, B1, B2, C1, C2, D1, D2, and D3

After the presumed diaspora of A, the subclade A1 is strong in Ireland, particularly around Cork, and A2 may be more heavily weighted in Northern England and Scotland. A small split of A1 developed and almost went extinct in Southwest England south of Bristol (The RD family. Perhaps at one time it would have qualified as subclade A3).

I do not know if there is a geographic split between B1 and B2, but B as a whole seems to be widely and evenly spread over the British Isles.

C1, C2, D1, and D2 are all heavily weighted to Ireland so, with the exception of C1, I would suggest they were founded there.

As to D3, it is weighted to Scotland, so it seems likely that there may be some important relationship to Dál Riata

● Subclades A, B, C, and D on the east side of the English Channel - after 4,500 y.a.:

So far, there has been only two Isles A found on the east side (and both use an English spelling of the surname). There are about a dozen total of Isles C and Isles D. The rest, another two dozen, are Isles B. All of these very few occurrences of A, B, C, and D east of the English Channel could be the legacy of individual traders and travellers at any time.

Jean Manco suggests there was a significant amount of slave trading by the Anglo-Saxons and others shipping native Britons, probably including our ancestors, west to Europe and the Mediterranean. This could account for that dozen instances of Isles C and Isles D and some Isles B found on the continent and elsewhere.

● TMRCA ● ● ● If L161 is so ancient, why is the TMRCA so short?</h3>

(TMRCA = Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor)

The TMRCA for Isles B is about 5,370 years. If Isles B were very much older, say 12,000 years or even older - 13,500 years, there would need to be a number of reasons for that short TMRCA.

Such reasons may very well exist:, i.e. known bottleneck events. The more severe the bottleneck, the more the TMRCA is moved.

The first obvious event was the Younger Dryas. That could have moved the TMRCA to about 12,000 years, which is interestingly close to the branching of Dinaric.

The next obvious bottlenecks are the flooding of Doggerland, the tsunamis, and the harsh climate change associated with the drainage of Lake Agassiz 8,200 years ago. That could have moved the TMRCA to 9,000 years.

The next is the catastrophic climate event of 4,500 years ago. Tree ring data proves that this event had severe worldwide effects, but the causes are subject to intense speculation: comets, volcanics, etc. Two very large volcanic events in Iceland seem fairly likely since they are not all that distant. The “1627 BC events” perhaps a series of volcanic eruptions from Iceland to Greece, also produced a decade of severe climate.

It is not at all necessary that the bottlenecking event be a huge catastrophe. The normal daily disasters: famine, fire, flood, war and pestilence can effectively, but more slowly, cause the TMRCA to move forward.

The cumulative effect of all these could have moved the TMRCA for Isles B from the founding 13,500 to the 5,370 we find in the data.

For Isles A, the effects of the Anglo-Saxon invasions may have been drastic enough to shorten the TMRCA to 1,500 years.

● Conclusion:

These dates are strong evidence that our L161-Isles B ancestors have been in Britain at least since the flooding of Doggerland before the opening of the English Channel 8,200 years ago during the mesolithic.

This would be long before dairy herding, before farming, before Celts, before Danes or Norse or Vikings, before Jutes or Belgae or Angles or Saxons.

Timeline
(y.a. = years ago)

110,000 y.a. __The "Last Glacial Period" begins and lasts until about 10,000 y.a.
15,000 y.a. ___Post-glacial repopulation of Southern England begins
14,700 y.a. ___Bølling-Allerød interstadial - a warm and moist period begins abruptly
13,500 y.a. ___L161 founded perhaps near the Black Sea
12,800 y,a, ___The Younger Dryas little ice age begins lasting 1,300 years
9,000 y.a. ____Post-glacial repopulation of Ireland begins in Cork
8,300 y.a. ____Flooding of Doggerland and Storegga Slide tsunamis
8,200 y.a. ____English Channel opened - Isles B on the west and L161-East on the east
6,500 y.a. ____Mesolithic / Neolithic transition
6,500 y.a. ____Isles B develops into Isles A in East Anglia and into Isles C in the English Midlands
6,500 y.a. ____Alghaffar branches off L161-East
6,000 y.a. ____Farming introduced into England
6,000 y.a. ____ Isles A branches off from Isles B, probably in East Anglia
5,700 y.a. ____Modern Isles B develops probably Southern England
5,370 y.a. ____TMRCA of continental group of Isles B derived from Bronze Age traders?
5,000 y.a. ____Windmill Hill culture-East Anglian tribe (Isles B?) begin constructing Stonehenge
4,800 y.a. ____Mt. Pleasant henge constructed in Dorset (by Isles B?)
4,740 y.a. ____TMRCA Isles B British group
4,500 y.a. ____Bronze Age begins in Britain
4,500 y.a. ____The horse domesticated in Britain
4,500 y.a. ____Isles C branches off from Isles B in the Northern England-Scotland-Ulster area?
4,000 y.a. ____part of Isles C migrates into Ireland<br>
4,050 y.a. ____Seahenge constructed in Norfolk (Isles B? or Isles A?)
3,800 y.a. ____Part of a migrating group of Isles C develops into Isles D in Ireland, perhaps near Rathcroghan
2,800 y.a. ____Iron Age begins in Britain
2,730 y.a. ____TMRCA of Isles C
2,520 y.a. ____TMRCA of Isles D
1,850 y.a. ____The great Antonine Plague
1,750 y.a. ____The Plagues of Cyprian and Aurelian - 20 years of plagues
1,500 y.a. ____TMRCA of Isles A
1,500 y.a. ____Anglo-Saxon invasion, slave trade flourishes
1,480 y.a. ____Plague of Justinian, TBJ erupts. "AD 536 Events" Two decades of famine.
1,450 y.a. ____The diaspora of Isles A
 
For L161, this is a speculative extension of Nordtvedt's hypothesis.

http://ecbiz126.inmotionhosting.com/~danelu5/page2.html

It is a much improved, updated and clarified version of post #1 in this thread.

I would appreciate your thoughts and corrections.

Comments as I read it...

L161 Timeline said:
It is thought that hg I was founded east of the Black Sea about 25,000 BC.

It seems likely that haplogroup I split from IJ east of the Black Sea, but where is 25,000 BC coming from? That's in-between the approximate date it split from IJ (~35,000 YBP) and its TMRCA (~22,000 YBP... by which time there's no evidence of remnants east of the Black Sea, so a better assumption is a MRCA west of the Black Sea).

L161 Timeline said:
The ice eventually forced the I / M170 to move back south until they found a survivable climate called a “refugium” in Ukraine. They lived in the Ukraine Refugium for about 10,000 years. While they were living there, another SNP called M438 developed about 21,000 BC. We associate M438 with haplogroup I2 and another subsequent SNP P37 with I2a1.

I seriously doubt that modern haplogroup I carriers descend patrilineally from anyone in the Ukraine refuge. More likely some descend from the Franco-Iberian refuge (I2a seems like a great candidate, and maybe even I1 also) and maybe some from the Adriatic refuge as well (I2b/I2c? That's my best guess...). The thing is, Ukraine has relatively little haplogroup I diversity, while the Atlantic Fringe and the Rhine have tons. I could be wrong, of course, but we have basically no evidence of a Ukraine refuge connection to haplogroup I at the moment, so I don't think it makes sense to put into this sort of narrative.

I know you favor M423+ as coming from the Black Sea region, and there's a chance you might be right about that, but M423+ definitely seems to be the outlier on its branch if that's the case.

L161 Timeline said:
The northwest shore of the Black Sea seems most likely to me because of the proximity to the Dinaric who also branched off from M423.

That doesn't seem likely to me. Probably the L147+ group had a MRCA from that region, but I'm not convinced about the others yet. The M423+ branch as a whole is difficult to pin anywhere since it has outliers from the Black Sea region and even Iraq, but the fact both of its branches have representation in the British Isles gives us a clue. I'm not saying that it originated in the British Isles, but I think it was closer to there than you're indicating. Especially considering that the closest cousins to M423+ are solidly anchored to France, and the next closest cousins to Western Europe.

L161 Timeline said:
Recent findings of L161 in Romania, Albania, and Greece and perhaps even Iran may suggest a source closer to the mouth of the Deister River on the Black Sea.

I don't think that's enough if they fit into one of the existing branches. Although, you go on to mention "L161-East." I'm curious about these. What is their TMRCA? How about their TMRCA with the rest of Isles (assuming they didn't branch off of A, B, C, D)? You say that Alghaffar branched off of them, does Alghaffar really have a more recent TMRCA with "L161-East" than with Isles-B?
 
Thank you. S____ for the excellent comments. I have interspersed my reasoning and questions in between your comments.


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OriginallyPosted by L161Timeline
Itis thought that hg I was founded east of the Black Sea about 25,000BC.
Itseems likely that haplogroup I split from IJ east of the Black Sea,but where is 25,000 BC coming from? That's in-between the approximatedate it split from IJ (~35,000 YBP) and its TMRCA (~22,000 YBP... bywhich time there's no evidence of remnants east of the Black Sea, soa better assumption is a MRCA west of the Black Sea).

Originally from National Geographic. Corrected to: hg I-M170 was founded east of the Black Sea about 33,000 BC.

I will get to the map correction later.

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OriginallyPosted by L161TimelineTheice eventually forced the I / M170 to move back south until theyfound a survivable climate called a “refugium” in Ukraine. Theylived in the Ukraine Refugium for about 10,000 years. While they wereliving there, another SNP called M438 developed about 21,000 BC. Weassociate M438 with haplogroup I2 and another subsequent SNP P37 withI2a1.
Iseriously doubt that modern haplogroup I carriers descendpatrilineally from anyone in the Ukraine refuge. More likely somedescend from the Franco-Iberian refuge (I2a seems like a greatcandidate, and maybe even I1 also) and maybe some from the Adriaticrefuge as well (I2b/I2c? That's my best guess...). The thing is,Ukraine has relatively little haplogroup I diversity, while theAtlantic Fringe and the Rhine have tons.I could be wrong, of course, but we have basically no evidence of aUkraine refuge connection to haplogroup I at the moment, so I don'tthink it makes sense to put into this sort of narrative.

I am interpreting the big purple spot on the distribution map as the connection. Does it not mean that?

If the founding was east of the Black Sea, then they must have gone through the Ukraine Refugium on their travels to the west, no? The low diversity in Ukraine could be an indicator of more recent bottlenecking (and therefore not much information content in that data?).

The question is also, wherever the founder was born, where were the descendants during the Younger Dryas? Looking at the distribution map and asking where they would have gone to seek shelter, the obvious answer is the Ukraine Refuge. Ir doesn't seem obvious how they would have gotten to anywhere else. And since M423 is pretty much absent in the Franco-Iberian (as shown on the distribution map), wouldn't that rule it out?

Iknow you favor M423+ as coming from the Black Sea region, and there'sa chance you might be right about that, but M423+ definitely seems tobe the outlier on its branch if that's the case.


M423 is really almost a dartboard choice. If you connect the locations shown for M423 on the hg I distribution map, it produces a path like the one described. Maybe future data will be able to give us better information.



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OriginallyPosted by L161TimelineThe northwestshore of the Black Sea seems most likely to me because ofthe proximity to the Dinaric who also branched off from M423.
Thatdoesn't seem likely to me. Probably the L147+ group had a MRCA fromthat region, but I'm not convinced about the others yet. The M423+branch as a whole is difficult to pin anywhere since it has outliersfrom the Black Sea region and even Iraq, but the fact both of itsbranches have representation in the British Isles gives us a clue.I'm not saying that it originated in the British Isles, but I thinkit was closer to there than you're indicating. Especially consideringthat the closest cousins to M423+ are solidlyanchoredto France, and the next closest cousins to Western Europe.

That is correct about the MRCAs , but modern MRCA don't really tell us much about the location of the MDCA. The paragraph about the shortness of the TMRCA relative to the founding dates was hopefully intended to address that.

This Dneister River assumption is to avoid the question as to how the Dinaric would have gotten back to the Balkans from northwest Europe. It this is the founding location, just a short trip up the Danube and hang a left gets them there. That seems the simplest solution, but certainly not guaranteed to be correct.



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OriginallyPosted by L161TimelineRecentfindings of L161 in Romania, Albania, and Greece and perhaps evenIran may suggest a source closer to the mouth of the Deister River onthe Black Sea.
Idon't think that's enough if they fit into one of the existingbranches. Although, you go on to mention "L161-East." I'mcurious about these. What is their TMRCA? How about their TMRCA withthe rest of Isles (assuming they didn't branch off of A, B, C, D)?You say that Alghaffar branched off of them, does Alghaffar reallyhave a more recent TMRCA with "L161-East" than withIsles-B?


I don't know anything about these, except they are said to exist, and so would seem to me to move the center of mass in that direction. It is similar to the Dinaric question, “how did they get back to there from Western Europe?” Much simpler if the founding was closer to there.
 
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I am interpreting the big purple spot on the distribution map as the connection. Does it not mean that?

The distribution map gives frequency, not diversity. Of course, diversity is more important evidence for extrapolating origin.

Ukraine has a lot of I2a-Din diversity, but not a lot else. It has a little bit of I2-M223 and I1, but isn't exceptionally diverse in them AFAIK.

If the founding was east of the Black Sea, then they must have gone through the Ukraine Refugium on their travels to the west, no?

Not necessarily. See the evidence for the spread of Gravettian culture... it probably started around the Crimean mountains, but by the LGM, had developed into successor cultures like the Solutrean (Franco-Iberian refuge). IMHO Gravettian culture is a very good candidate for the origin of all modern haplogroup I, although admittedly, that's probably extrapolating farther back than we ought to.

I guess you could say that they must have passed through what would become the Ukraine refuge at the LGM.

The low diversity in Ukraine could be an indicator of more recent bottlenecking (and therefore not much information content in that data?).

I'm sure there was some bottlenecking of haplogroup I in Ukraine, and it's theoretically possible that I2a was in the Ukraine refuge and bottlenecked there after spreading elsewhere during the Mesolithic (we really just need all the other subclades in place by the end of the Mesolithic for the modern patterns to work). It's just a less likely scenario given the evidence we have, I think.

You can keep your hypothesis on your page, of course... I like that you explore the alternate possibilities for I2a-Isles. Just offering my opinion, which could be wrong too. (y)

The question is also, wherever the founder was born, where were the descendants during the Younger Dryas? Looking at the distribution map and asking where they would have gone to seek shelter, the obvious answer is the Ukraine Refuge. Ir doesn't seem obvious how they would have gotten to anywhere else. And since M423 is pretty much absent in the Franco-Iberian (as shown on the distribution map), wouldn't that rule it out?

I'm talking about early undifferentiated I2a as being likely present at the Franco-Iberian refuge during the LGM. By the Mesolithic, there are some fairly apparent cultures to place its descendants in. IMHO: Azilian is likely for I2a1a, Sauvetterian is likely for I2a2b and maybe the French I2a1 outliers and I2a1c (which is a bit confusing itself), and Maglemosian is likely for I2a2a. The Younger Dryas happened just before the development of these, so, where do they all seem to have come from? The Franco-Iberian region looks likely, based on the archaeology I'm familiar with.

That still leaves us with I2a1b, which has a modern distribution that give us little clues to Mesolithic continuity. Is it the last remnant of a Ukraine LGM refuge I2a? I don't think that's likely... all of I2a would have been in the same spot 20,000 years ago, and based on all the others, the best guess looks to be the Franco-Iberian refuge. Could I2a1b have drifted to the Ukraine refuge between the LGM and the Younger Dryas? Sure... but what's the mechanism, or associated culture?

M423 is really almost a dartboard choice. If you connect the locations shown for M423 on the hg I distribution map, it produces a path like the one described. Maybe future data will be able to give us better information.

Yeah, hopefully we'll find more outliers, or some ancient samples. It's the most difficult I subclade to say anything definite about.

That is correct about the MRCAs , but modern MRCA don't really tell us much about the location of the MDCA. The paragraph about the shortness of the TMRCA relative to the founding dates was hopefully intended to address that.


I agree that ancient bottlenecking makes extrapolating the ancient migrations of I2a1b in particular very difficult. I would disagree if you're suggesting that we can't say much about where I2a as a whole was anchored, though. We've got a lot of subclades other than confusing I2a1b to point us there... I2a1a, I2a1c, I2a1*-F, I2a1*-NF, I2a2b, and I2a2a. All point west except maybe I2a2a, which is more central. Even with bottlenecking, I doubt that this is meaningless.

This Dneister River assumption is to avoid the question as to how the Dinaric would have gotten back to the Balkans from northwest Europe. It this is the founding location, just a short trip up the Danube and hang a left gets them there. That seems the simplest solution, but certainly not guaranteed to be correct.

I don't think that a direct movement from northwest Europe to the Balkans is plausible, either. It would have to have been movement from northwest Europe back to the Ukraine region, and then down to the Balkans, if it's true that I2a1b began expanding from northwest Europe.

I don't know anything about these, except they are said to exist, and so would seem to me to move the center of mass in that direction.

Have a link? The idea of an L161-East cluster as an older branch than A, B, C, and D is an important one to establish where L161 originally launched from. It would be especially interesting if we could show that the Eastern European samples belonged to L161-East. I've assumed that the Eastern European samples belonged to the B cluster until now.
 
That answer gives me a lot to think about, and done nicely too. Thank you, S_____.

The idea of an L161-East cluster as an older branch than A, B, C, and D is an important one to establish where L161 originally launched from. It would be especially interesting if we could show that the Eastern European samples belonged to L161-East. I've assumed that the Eastern European samples belonged to the B cluster until now.

L161-east is just me artificially dividing the isles bunch from all the other L161 using an hypothetical STR set for the "Doggerland Patriarch" . I think they are all members of B cluster - or maybe a pre-B group.

-----------------------------------------

I hope I have understood your comments correctly. As a result of your info, I have done a major rewrite of the section. Still a work in progress, it now reads:



● Ancestors of L161


L161 is descended from haplogroup (hg) I which has SNP M170. It is thought that Hg I-M170 was founded east of the Black Sea about 33,000 BC during a warm interglacial period in the Weichsellian ice age. During this period, Hg I-M170 and the paleolithic Gravettian Culture spread from Ukraine to Spain. Afterwards, the Weichsellian returned fiercely. The maximum glacial ice coverage was reached about 23,000 BC, followed by the post-Weichsellian warm period. During the warm period a new SNP called M438-I2 developed about 19,500 BC, followed shortly by SNP L460-I2a about 18.500 BC, and P37-I2a1 about 18,000 BC.


[Just a note about the ice ages and the refugia. The ice age was not just one event. The ice came and went about ten times. When the ice was great, the people moved south and lived in survivable climates called "refugia." There were several of these refugia: in Spain and southwest France (Franco-Iberian), in the Balkans, and in Ukraine. When the weather warmed up, the people spread northwards and laterally covering great territory. Then another wave of ice came back and they were driven back into the refugia. The warm spells and cold spells have names like Weichsellian (cold with eight warm spells, followed by a warm spell), Oldest Dryas (cold), Bølling-Allerød (warm), Younger Dryas (cold), and Boreal (warm).]


The post-Weichsellian warm period ended and an ice age called the "Oldest Dryas" began about 17,000 BC. The ice forced the I-M170 and all the dispersed subgroups to move back to refugia. Various tribes of Hg I may have been in all of the refugia. They lived in the refugia, off and on, until about 14,670 years ago when the Bolling-Allerod warm spell abruptly began.


I2a1-P37 was, without doubt, present in the Franco-Iberian Refugium and developed several subgroups there that later spread out widely, notably M26 Sardinian. which is found in Spain, France, and Sardinia. That much is clear.


However other SNPs that developed from P37 present a bit of a mystery. M423-I2a1b developed about 13,800 BC. M423 is found mainly north and west of the Black Sea and, oddly, in Britain. From it have developed two other SNPs: L161-Isles and L69-I2a1a Dinaric, both about 13,000 years ago during the Bølling-Allerød warm period before the Younger Dryas ice age. Dinaric is found mainly in the Balkans and L161 is found, with a very few exceptions, in Britain.




<img alt="" src="http://danel.us/resources/m423.gif" width="800" height="600" />

Distribution of Haplogroup I and it subgroup M423


The mystery is this: Since it is known that P37 was in the Franco-Iberian refuge, if M423 was founded there or near there, how did M423, Dinaric, and L161-Isles get to their present locations? A mass migration eastward to the Black Sea seems unlikely.


Here is a possible solution: P37 spread during the post-Weichsellian warm period before the Oldest Dryas and so could have travelled widely across Europe at the time. A few (or even just one) P37 made their way eastward and found themselves in the Ukraine Refugium during the Oldest Dryas. It was there during that time that M423 was born and subsequently both L161 and L69-Dinaric. M423 expanded from there to the present location centered around Ukraine, and L69-Dinaric migrated up the Danube and into the Balkans. To suggest a parallel from fiction, Jean Auel's story of the travels of Jondalar, our fictional P37, from France to the Black Sea and back, begetting children along the way, would seem to suit.<sup><a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth's_Children" target="_blank">[36]</a></sup> One of "Jondalar's" Black Sea descendants would be the founder of M423.

This may seem very farfetched, but consider this: P37 had been founded only 1000 years, say 40 generations before the onset of the Oldest Dryas. The total population of P37 could not have been very great, and most of them were probably in the Franco-Iberian refuge.


Which leaves the question as to how L161 got to Britain. L161 branched off from M423 about 13,500 y.a. somewhere in their territory.


● Location of L161 founding


The geographic location where the founder lived is uncertain. Nordtvedt originally suggested the North German plain. Recent findings of L161 in Romania, Albania, and Greece and perhaps even Iran may suggest a source closer to the mouth of the Deister River on the Black Sea. At the time of the founding the North German plain was enjoying the Bølling-Allerød warm period after the Oldest Dryas ice age ended. This pleasant setting was soon changed by the onset of a little ice age known as the "Younger Dryas" that lasted for 1,300 years.


There are basically four possibilities as to the founding location. First: Founded on the North German Plain and then L161 moved west from there, (braving the Younger Dryas ice age on those northern plains?). Second: L161 was founded "up north" but was driven by the little ice age southward down to the shores of the Black Sea. Third: L161 was founded in that zone of M423 on the northwest shore of the Black Sea. Fourth: L161 was founded somewhere else altogether. The first seems like an exinction situation. The second and third seem equally likely, The fourth, well, we may all be wrong.


I prefer the third, i.e. founded along the shore of Black Sea at the mouth of the Dneister River. After the Younger Dryas ended 11,500 y.a., the L161 migrated northward up the Dneister River and on westward, leaving some dna remnants along the way. The path taken by L161 is shown on this map as the light blue line from the Black Sea to Britain.


<img alt="" src="http://danel.us/resources/Grandfathers Path11.gif" width="860" height="600" /></a><br />


Perhaps supporting the idea that L161 spent the early years after the founding near the Black Sea are that
a.) M423 is scarce in the other refugia zones;
b.) Modern M423 is found in a wide circle around Ukraine;
c.) Dinaric branched off M423. The descendants of that branching are very heavily located in the area west of the Black Sea;
d.) L161 branched off from M423.
e.) L147-I2a1b3a, another branching of M423 is also located north and west of the Black Sea

Here are links to a “family tree” of <a href="http://danel.us/resources/I2a+Hypothetical+family+tree+L161+Isles+B.gif" target="_blank">haplogroup I </a>and of <a href="http://danel.us/resources/Doggerland+Patriarch+family+tree.gif" target="_blank">L161 Isles Clades</a>.

--------------

I just noticed the L147 (branched from M423) on Nordtvedt's map.

He has P37 on Greece. I wonder if there is any meaning to that.
 
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L161-east is just me artificially dividing the isles bunch from all the other L161 using an hypothetical STR set for the "Doggerland Patriarch" . I think they are all members of B cluster - or maybe a pre-B group.

"All members of B cluster" to me would suggest Migration Period flow eastward. "A pre-B group" would make me reconsider some of my presuppositions. So hopefully we get more detailed STR analyses of eastern I2a1b2 in the future.

I hope I have understood your comments correctly. As a result of your info, I have done a major rewrite of the section.

I like it better now... fewer things to argue about. (y)

I just noticed the L147 (branched from M423) on Nordtvedt's map.

He has P37 on Greece. I wonder if there is any meaning to that.

Nordtvedt's map is a schematic, where the endpoints of the arrows and general direction of the paths mean more than their specific paths and branching locations. Notice the cluster of arrow endpoints just east of the Rhine and along the Atlantic Fringe, for example... those support some of the points I've been making.
 
I like it better now... fewer things to argue about. (y)

Good. I don't mind differing on speculations, but It is my intention to avoid contradictions with facts. Of the still several things to argue about, do you see any of them as factually incorrect?
 
More research needs to be conducted on I2a2b. It is clearly north-west European and absent in eastern Europe. The branchlines between it and I2a2a separated some 13,000 years ago. Eventually, I hope, the databases will enlarge so that we are able to say more about this fascinating little clade.

Hello! I'm I2a2b according to 23and me and my family lives in central Romania for generations. What do you think on that?
 
I2a2b still in Romania, near the Danube

I'm I2a2b and not the only one. My father and ancestors lived for at least 200 years near where you see Craiova at the Center of Romania roughly close to Danube..

great explanation!
there is some I2a2a as far as south Germany...
I2b probably did take Dniester route together with I2a2b...

Seneca's mention of Serians in Europe is related to Danube

and Byzantine emperor did record (though several centuries after the event) settlements of Serbs from Bohemia on Balkan...and Bohemia is on this route along the Danube...

Scordisci are as well spread along this route.... from them tribe named Serdi entered Thrace...

btw. this source area between Dniester and Danube is roughly Moldova... Moldova has high frequency of I2a2 but the variance is low there, much lower than area just northeast of it above Black sea... so perhaps the source was above Black sea and still the routes of spread towards west were twofold as indicated by you...

spread could have been all around Black sea,,,as Veneti are on south shores of Black sea... later when Veneti moved to Europe they settled also in area of north Adriatic coast and due to that today there is variance hotspot in Slovenia....
according to Jordanes, early Slavs belong to populous race of Veneti
 
I2a2b not extinct in between Carpathians and Danube ok?

Hi!

I'm I2a2b and I live in central Romania between the Carpathians Mountains and the Danube..
So we are not extinct ok?
:)))))

I do not disagree with that for most of the I2 variants, but if I2a2b were in the Danube basin back then, why are they not there now? All the others are still represented there to some extent.

It would require some sort of selective extinction of the I2a2b in the Danube. Has anyone suggested a mechanism for this selective extinction?

However, if we consider that the I2a2a were in those lovely protected lands along the Danube where they were easily able to thrive and multiply. If I2a2b had been there, they would have thrived too. But they did not. Why not? They were up on the northern plain suffering the vicissitudes of the Younger Dryas and, to use Nordtvedt's phrase, "at the razor edge of overall extinction"

Beyond that, it is not clear to me that I2a2a and I2a2b separated from each other directly. It seems that they probably both branched off a prior variety of I2a2-something, could be I2a2* or something else. So I am not saying, and doubt, that Mr. I2a2b's father was Mr. I2a2a. Just saying that they were not all that far apart geographically. Maybe the distance from Moldova to the Danube. Mr. I2a2a could very well have been born somewhere up the Danube from another I2a2-something father. This is why I did not draw an intersection of a and b. I think this is what Nordtvedt is saying in the quote back up in message 11.

How is Lepinski Vir evidence for any of this? One might very well expect that I2a2a would be there, but the only way it could have any bearing on this is if I2a2b were found there. Has Y-dna from Lepinski Vir been published?
 

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