We were discussing the Balkan Bronze age samples and the Iron Age one as well on the thread about the Varna "King".
Based on the pca, Eastara posted the following, which looks correct to me.
"
As far as I can see Varna are the red outlined orange squares and probably only Varna outlier, who has more Yamnaya [compared to the other Varna samples] falls over the Tuscans. In fact the Balkan Bronze age (blue filled red circles) is all over the Tuscans.''
(As one of our posters pointed out, the coverage of the Varna "King" is poorer than that of Varna outlier, so we don't know if the "King" might have had more "steppe", but imo it's more likely he didn't, as most of it seems to arrive in the Bronze Age. Perhaps, as well, there is some ambiguity in the dating and the Varna Outlier should be dated later.)
This is from a poster on another forum who sees Vucedol as close to modern North Italians, but doesn't see Balkan Bronze Age as close to modern Tuscans.
"Using the Global25 data, I relabelled the samples with the more precise culture labels from Mathieson's paper and then placed them on a Neighbour Joining Tree with local populations:
https://imgur.com/a/tm6ce
Results:
A few of the Croatian Vucedol and EMBA / LBA samples sit with North Italians (Bergamo) while most Balkans_BA from Bulgaria sit either with early Neolithic or in a "no man's land" between Sardinians and North Italians.
https://imgur.com/a/tm6ce
(Certainly no where near enough WHG rich Middle Neolithic ancestry to sit too near to the Basques.) One Bulgarian sample (I2165) is probably by chance sitting fairly near recent Bulgarians, Serbs, Romanians.
We'd probably reasonably expect the Croatians of this time to tend to be North Italian like (it's not too far from Bergamo to Croatia and closer than to Bulgaria?), until they get more admixture from whatever expanding genetic wave links Baltic BA / Balts / Slavs / Hungarians.
Judging from the position of the Bulgaria_IA, the Bronze Age Bulgarians would need more Mycenaean/Anatolia_BA-like ancestry to get to there, and then more of the Balt-Slav / Baltic BA type ancestry to get to present day position."
So, what to make of it? Just a difference because of different methodology? Even just in terms of PCAs, I think Northern Italians are quite a bit "north" of Vucedol, and closer to Balkan Bronze Age, and Balkan Bronze Age is indeed pretty close to Tuscans. The Balkan Iron Age sample is pretty close to Mycenaeans, which are close to Southern Italians/Sicilians. The Balkan one looks more "western" but equally "south".
Of course, this doesn't mean all of Northern Italy never changed since that era. There could have been meanderings back and forth. Interesting none the less.