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[FONT=var(--ds-type-system-sans)]Balking at Balkan babies[/FONT]
[FONT=var(--ds-type-system-serif)]The Balkans are getting short of people[/FONT]
The demography of south-eastern Europe threatens its hopes of prosperity.
South eastern europe is in a Catch-22. The region’s many problems prompt young, talented people to leave in droves. But it will not catch up with the rest of Europe without young, talented people to generate prosperity. Across the Balkans, populations are shrinking and ageing, and unless that changes even more will leave.
This combination of rapid emigration, low fertility and sparse immigration produces the worst imaginable result, says Kresimir Ivanda, a Croatian demographer. Greece, Italy and Spain have low birth rates, but attract lots of immigrants. In Poland, more than 1m Ukrainians have filled gaps in the labour market left by emigration.
Yet the data that are available paint a clear picture. The population of every Balkan country is shrinking because of emigration and low fertility. In the past, populations grew back after waves of emigration, since many women had six children. Now few have more than one. Serbia may have more pensioners than working-age people by next year.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/08/22/the-balkans-are-getting-short-of-people
My two cents below:
If you want to see what the Demographic Time Bomb looks like. Look no further than the Balkans.
I see a lot of people thinking their prosperity and well being is due to capital issues and hard work. Very few seem to realize that human capital is the greatest capital. A lot of people, maybe rightfully so are worried due to immigration mainly cause of the clash of cultures and civilization, the demographic change in their community etc. Very few seem to notice the uncountable benefits to their countries from the same phenomenon.
With North Macedonia, where I live the case is dire. From low skilled laborers, who within a year of emigrating to Germany are doing much better for themselves than they ever did at home, to nurses and specialized Doctors, with much more prospects for the future, leaving in droves. Balkan people are easy to integrate in the German society, and to some degree highly welcome, due to the less stark clash in civilization and culture. But the collateral damage felt in their home country, is an expanding gaping hole, for which thus far we have no answer for.
Take a look at the stats below, in respect to remittances received just in Kosovo.
We are talking almost $1 Bln in personal transfers. And 16% of GDP in remittances for Kosovo.
Nominally it is a low number. But when we keep in mind the size of the country and its economy, the number is staggering. Especially since there is no free travel for Kosovar people, even to go on vacation they need a visa. With their ~2.0 natality rate, this is good in terms of Demographics. But what will happen when they are allowed to travel, emigrate for work freely in the EU ?
The implications are clear.
Albania is not part of the EU, thus not the best example of what might happen if the Western Balkans join the EU. Emigrating for work there is really hard with no freedom of movement beside the Schengen which does not cover permanent emigration.
Yet since the Schengen was approved for Albania, look what happened to the population.
"Albania received a road map from the EU for further visa liberalization with Schengen countries in June 2008. ... On 8 November 2010 the Council of the European Union approved visa-free travel to the EU for citizens of Albania. The decision entered into force on 15 December 2010."
Notice what happened between 2008-2010 with the population. This is just by visa liberalization. Now imagine EU membership.
For a better example of what might happen lets look at the "more prosperous" Croatia, Bulgaria and Romania who joined the EU. Croatia 2013, Bulgaria & Romania 2007.
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/croatia-population/
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/croatia-population/
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/romania-population/
Keep in mind when they joined the EU and the following trend.
We see the initial dip in Yearly Growth Rate (%) following the fall of Communism in the 1990, which is later revived coinciding with EU ascension.
If the trend continues, it is expected that the median age will keep increasing, and thus the ratio of pensioners to working age population increasing. Putting further strain on the economy and social programs and safety nets which define modern day Welfare States.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government#Economic_systems
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welfare_state
[FONT=var(--ds-type-system-serif)]The Balkans are getting short of people[/FONT]
The demography of south-eastern Europe threatens its hopes of prosperity.
South eastern europe is in a Catch-22. The region’s many problems prompt young, talented people to leave in droves. But it will not catch up with the rest of Europe without young, talented people to generate prosperity. Across the Balkans, populations are shrinking and ageing, and unless that changes even more will leave.
This combination of rapid emigration, low fertility and sparse immigration produces the worst imaginable result, says Kresimir Ivanda, a Croatian demographer. Greece, Italy and Spain have low birth rates, but attract lots of immigrants. In Poland, more than 1m Ukrainians have filled gaps in the labour market left by emigration.
Yet the data that are available paint a clear picture. The population of every Balkan country is shrinking because of emigration and low fertility. In the past, populations grew back after waves of emigration, since many women had six children. Now few have more than one. Serbia may have more pensioners than working-age people by next year.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/08/22/the-balkans-are-getting-short-of-people
My two cents below:
If you want to see what the Demographic Time Bomb looks like. Look no further than the Balkans.
I see a lot of people thinking their prosperity and well being is due to capital issues and hard work. Very few seem to realize that human capital is the greatest capital. A lot of people, maybe rightfully so are worried due to immigration mainly cause of the clash of cultures and civilization, the demographic change in their community etc. Very few seem to notice the uncountable benefits to their countries from the same phenomenon.
With North Macedonia, where I live the case is dire. From low skilled laborers, who within a year of emigrating to Germany are doing much better for themselves than they ever did at home, to nurses and specialized Doctors, with much more prospects for the future, leaving in droves. Balkan people are easy to integrate in the German society, and to some degree highly welcome, due to the less stark clash in civilization and culture. But the collateral damage felt in their home country, is an expanding gaping hole, for which thus far we have no answer for.
Take a look at the stats below, in respect to remittances received just in Kosovo.
We are talking almost $1 Bln in personal transfers. And 16% of GDP in remittances for Kosovo.
Nominally it is a low number. But when we keep in mind the size of the country and its economy, the number is staggering. Especially since there is no free travel for Kosovar people, even to go on vacation they need a visa. With their ~2.0 natality rate, this is good in terms of Demographics. But what will happen when they are allowed to travel, emigrate for work freely in the EU ?
The implications are clear.
Albania is not part of the EU, thus not the best example of what might happen if the Western Balkans join the EU. Emigrating for work there is really hard with no freedom of movement beside the Schengen which does not cover permanent emigration.
Yet since the Schengen was approved for Albania, look what happened to the population.
"Albania received a road map from the EU for further visa liberalization with Schengen countries in June 2008. ... On 8 November 2010 the Council of the European Union approved visa-free travel to the EU for citizens of Albania. The decision entered into force on 15 December 2010."
Notice what happened between 2008-2010 with the population. This is just by visa liberalization. Now imagine EU membership.
For a better example of what might happen lets look at the "more prosperous" Croatia, Bulgaria and Romania who joined the EU. Croatia 2013, Bulgaria & Romania 2007.
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/croatia-population/
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/croatia-population/
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/romania-population/
Keep in mind when they joined the EU and the following trend.
We see the initial dip in Yearly Growth Rate (%) following the fall of Communism in the 1990, which is later revived coinciding with EU ascension.
If the trend continues, it is expected that the median age will keep increasing, and thus the ratio of pensioners to working age population increasing. Putting further strain on the economy and social programs and safety nets which define modern day Welfare States.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government#Economic_systems
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welfare_state