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Theory: I1 originally from Paloithic Cro magnon central Europe not Scandinavia

Is this a contest to see how many bad theories we can pack into one thread?


  • I1 is not likely to be over 10,000 years old in terms of TMRCA. Even if we add a Zhivotovsky-type "evolutionary" fudge factor to the date estimates to bring I1 to ~13,500 years old, we end up with it still being definitely younger that other haplogroups like I2, which end up being absurdly old (60,000+). So regardless of Fire Haired's theories, I1 very likely has a ~5,000 year TMRCA.


  • Western Finland has high I1, but it is a child branch amidst an otherwise quite Germanic group. It's also quite young. So no matter who introduced it, it must owe its present distribution to a founder effect. As a result, regardless of whether or not Germanic peoples introduced it to Finland originally, it says nothing about the origins of I1 as a whole.


  • Even if I1 originated in the Baltic, it was not likely spread by Balts. There is a temporal separation there. Balts could have *gasp* moved into, or formed within, the Pomeranian and Old Prussian region after I1 started to spread! We're talking 5000 years ago, after all, long before "Balts" were ever recorded. One of the most obvious differences between Germanic and Baltic populations is the I1:N1c ratio, which is much, much larger in Germanic populations.


  • R1b is not likely to be the Ice Age remnant of Western Europe. Even if you ignore STR and SNP dating as many seem to do nowadays, you have to contend with the fact that this is the question most clearly answered by the few ancient European Y-DNA samples we currently have. The earliest R1b we have is a Beaker sample.

I'm pretty sure I've answered these all before in different threads. But thanks for the compendium, everybody.

100% junk science. It's not even that estimates are off, it's just an invalid way to estimate and completely meaningless.

If you know math a little better you wouldn't need an explanation (and now I will probably hear all about how great at math you are, but suffice to say no anthropologist is on the same planet as me on the subject). I touched on it a little but I could spend days on the topic and some still would poo poo me.

And again if you actually read original OoA theorie papers and all about nonsensical serial founder effects you have to realize this is completely contradictory. Either that or they are trying desperately to paint whole genotypes as founded by genocidal murderers. Except oh wait, all of europe shows huge amount of outbreeding compared to actual quick expanding populations like arabs and zulu, who did do large scale genocides of their neighbors. And again in 5k years the signs of this much inbreeding and genocide would be very clear, if they actually existed.

True that! I say let R1b and R1a fight that one out, they can have it. What I find interesting is that someone with Noman's viewpoint and myself are arguing about who has the closer tie to Neanderthal. This indicates a sea-change in Neanderthal acceptance/status.

Change happens slowly but it's getting there. But I wouldn't bother to argue it. For starters there's not enough data to tell. Also the fact that the estimates we see keep climbing and are way off from the obvious numbers we get out of derived attributes is coherent with the idea of natural selection. Even in the most remore part of africa a lot of neanderthal genes have become fixed in the population, and as I said there's clades in the DNA of africans with neanderthal at the top as oldest, proving the case for multiregionalism.

The funniest thing is the Schizophrenia;
On one hand there is NO such thing as an Indo-European lineage
Yeah, of course there's not, just sound how nonsensical those words are strung together. We are speaking english so I guess we are Angles, eh?

or even a substantial Indo-European migration
Kiev must have had half a billion people if you think they populated all of europe like that. No, it was more like the Angles and Visigoths. Like sile said they came through and picked up locals as they went. We have documentation of this in historic times too, that's how the huns worked. Ten locals for each hun, and actual huns had no real impact on europe outside hungary.

And like I said there's refugiums they don't speak IE language at all, those are the places with the heaviest r1b. Sorry, this is busted. Of course you don't get r1b looking for it in the neolithic farmers. The more I think about that the more I think it was intentional. There's endless bones from standing stones tombs to test but maybe they are trying to make a political statement that europeans are all invaders and genocidal maniancs.

In ireland non IE language also survived almost to present times. So they never got replaced yet are r1b. Not only that but among the heaviest in r1b so they didn't get it out of any invasion.

If you read a few papers and look at how many lies and ridiculous gaffs you see in archaeology after following it as a hobby a few years, you realize it's about 80% politics, 10% scholarship, 10% science is being very generous.

For example for years and years they have been saying chimps are 99% human. NOPE! If you know about genetics, you know this is complete crap anyway. It's not just a bad estimate but a bald faced lie. Now it's down to 94% or something, but even two humans side by side can have more variation than that base pair by base pair. It's just made of nonsense.

Similarly they have said chimp is the nearest ancestor of man even though archaeology for any other species would say it's impossible. A human walks upright. So do gorillas. They are the closest, end of story. Recently they finally sequence a gorilla and guess what? 15% closer than a chimp.

Of course if you don't believe in natural selection you get some strange ideas in your head, but nobody would make this mistake for butterflies. You don't evolve upright walking one afternoon just for kicks. Once an upright walker exists then that niche is filled and no other species can benefit from moving in that direction because they'll be outcompeted, so they don't fo to that niche. That's why the lungfish has been stuck for a billion years in place. Lungfish are the ones who came out of the water and because mammals and reptiles and avians but they can't do anything but stay where they are now that all those animals are in the way.

and on the other hand I1 is constantly connected to Indo-Europeans;
I have read (on this thread) about Balts, Thracians, Illyrians, Noricans, Pannonian, Venetic, Dacian and also Gallic/Keltic;
Of course it's speculative. The IE complete repalcement is speculative, too. And in about 5 seconds of thinking and posting in this thread, pretty much disproven.

Things like that and out of africa make plenty of sense if you don't believe in natural selection, don't know ANY history at all, and COMPLETELY ignore all archeology. Only when I looked close at the archaeology did I realize it is impossible for humans to have evolved in africa, or for an exodus.

Modern humans suddenly show up in africa right along the arabian border (where at some times they could walk right from australia).

At the same time the rest of africa is under the sway of the most archaic looking human ancestors imaginable, and now we have proof after they got to africa modern humans interbred with them. Now think a second. They interbred with them but those genes stayed in africa! Meaning they didn't migrate out at all...and how could they, they just arrived from elsewhere.

Probably almost everyone spoke IE before bell beaker even came to be. Like Siles said a language is not a tribe! Lingua franca of italic mediterranean is still the basis of spanish and portuguese and there was probably no gene flow at all.

Also looks like an Archaeological wonderland;
Just randomly picking out Cultures without any sense behind it;
I gave some of the reasons behind it and pointed out that there's way too much spread of I to be accounted for in this time.

History has a documented time-line;
sticking to it wouldnt be a bad idea;
We don't have anything for things you seem to regard as fact. We have no idea just supposition. Everything I posit for I fits the facts. Pre-classic greeks are totally unaccounted for but there's endless reams of archaeology to back this up.

Dieneke is an ok guy and actually looks at archaeology unlike most of these clowns, but even he goes into a fit when you look at archaeology about his homeland. Not just pots we have (and endless other artifacts), but endless nordic skulls from pre-classic greek. We also have way more blondes in greece than would logically come out of any r1b stock we know about (NONE!). And the further back we go the more blondes we have, more nordic features, etc.

The handwaving is pretty funny, too. Well we do have a lot of blondes is some areas but (lots of nonsense with populations) they're not that big a difference from and average of other european places! :lol: You mean the other european places that have a lot of I in them?

As if all physical traits are just random, like you could easily find michelle pfeiffer walking in the calahari, or in the russian steppes, or in a fishing village near beijing. Well you might, but they came from somewhere, and obviously archaeology says they were a big part of greece a long time. They are also what the spartans and macedonions were (and oh how any greek will deny the existence of macedonia).

Possibly yes, these are even the pre-classic greeks.

It's an even wager to me at this point as to whether archaeology displays or hides more items, just try to get access to skulls at malta or clean side view pictures of natufian skulls. Don't like those answers, eh?
 
Right from india, not australia. Whoops. At times they could walk from india nearly to australia as well, though, guess that's why my brain farted.

And think of that, trying to write macedonia out of history. Trying much harder to write neanderthals out of history completely. Who does something like that? The mind boggles.
 
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Great Logic!
Indo-Europeans did not exist because Kiev (a city of the 9th cen AD) is/was too small;
 
Well obviously I know a lot more of history than you, sorry to say but it's true. Your comments on the goths show you didn't even glance at wikipedia first. So obviously I know the city of kiev didn't exist yet.

That out of the way yup, kiev is around the area where the maykop civilization existed. This is probably the actual indo european homeland everyone is talking about. Again, maybe look at the wiki article for indo europeans as a starter before going into 4chan antics. We do know a lot about the migrations, enough to know there was no giant replacement.
 
Well obviously I know a lot more of history than you, sorry to say but it's true. Your comments on the goths show you didn't even glance at wikipedia first. So obviously I know the city of kiev didn't exist yet.

Yes what is Pytheas, Plinius and Cassiodorus in comparison to Wikipedia;

I bet your knowledge could fill entire Libraries;
I am eager to learn from you;

That out of the way yup, kiev is around the area where the maykop civilization existed. This is probably the actual indo european homeland everyone is talking about. Again, maybe look at the wiki article for indo europeans as a starter before going into 4chan antics.

Ever heard of Sredny Stog and Yamna of the Caspian-Pontic steppes ???
The expansion of the Kurgan culture complex I-IV ???

PS: Maykop is much further south than Kiev; Its a culture zone of the southern Caucasus/East Black Sea area; In fact Maykop is nowhere near Kiev;

We do know a lot about the migrations, enough to know there was no giant replacement.

A replacement of what?
 
I cant belive what i am hearing who would connect I1 with Indo Europeans. What Indo Europeans are u talking about is it Balto Slavic Corded ware culture in eastern Europe 5,000-4,000ybp, Germanic Italo Celtic Unetice and late Bell Beaker culture 5,000-4,000ybp. Why is I1 around 30% in uralic non Indo European speaking Finnish. R1a1a1 M417 seems to have spread out of Ukriane one of the biggest headquaters for early Indo European culture it spread with Indo Iranian languages in asia and Balto Slavic in east europe. R1b L51 seems to have spread with Germanic and Italo Celtic languages. I1 is of course in the hg I family it is Paloithic and Mesloithic European what would have had to happen is Indo Europeans picked it up after inter marrying then spread it.

If u look at the Y DNA of Scandnavia it all can be explained except I1. R1a came with Corded ware culture 5,000-4,000ybp, N1c came with Kunda culture and uRlaic languages 6,000-8,000ybp, R1b came with nordic bronze age culture and Germanic languages 4,000-3,500ybp, G2a, E1b1b, J2, and J1 came with Farming and contact with other Europeans later on in history. The rest of Scandnavain Y DNA is I1 were did it come form and what did Y DNA is left of the Norwegian and Swedish from 6,000ybp because according to ur theory there is none left. Since Swedish, norwiegan, and finnish all have over 60% blonde or just fair hair and eyes they obvisouly are related makes sense since they live near each other the only thing that connectecs them in Y DNA is really I1.

If I1 came to Swedan and Norway just 5,000ybp that means 6,000ybp people in central Norway and Swedan Y DNA no longer exists i doubt they were exterminated i thin their Y DNA was I1. If u say that i1 spread to Scandinavia just 5,000ybp then u are also saying those people are the source for high amounts of blonde hair in Scandinavia that also means they would have exterminated the people already there. This theory turns out to sound absolutely crazy. Think about it when people extreminte another people mainly in ancient times it was done by the sword and spear and men died inw ars which lead to their y dna being partly replaced by the winner of the war that is what italo celts did in west europe. So if a blonde haired I1 people exterminated who ever lived in Scandinavia before them everyone should have I1 and also i doubt Uralic languages would survive since they would have been conquered.

In my opinion the 60% fair hair and fair eyes and the I1 in Scandinavia are from the same people who were the orignal settlers of Scandinavia 11,000ybp. The reason why Paleolithic ancestry and Paloithic paternal lineages in Scandnavia have survived so much better than for example Spain is because They are so far away from the action farming barely spread to Scandinavia and spread very late 5,000-4,000ybp. It is absouley crazy to say the people in the most northern Border of Europe have 100% ancestry from Neloithic and bronze age arrivals. Have'nt any of u heard that Finnish and Sami are the closest living relatives to a 7,000 year old hunter gather from north spain. When loking at aust dna which tells ur full ancestry there are diff types of test the one i like is globe13 they call the paloithic european group well almost all tests do North Euro because that is were it is most popular. Finnish and Sami have the most in Europe neloithic age brough med, southwest asian, and west asian to europe if Scandinavians come from Neloithic and Bronze age arrivals they should have as high med, southwest asian, and west asian as Germans but they have much less.
 
I will believe in complete IE replacement just as soon as someone can tell me what was in europe before r1b.

It's not G, we know the neolithic farmers are new arrivals.

I would be a great candidate except HEY, I isn't even that old! The granddad of all Is was trundling around europe with his hundred sons from conquered slave wives at the time, or however it is people are trying to paint I's hilarious early arrival to existence.

I already heard about africans in europe several times. I haven't heard anyone suggest it was arabs yet but someone is bound to manage to make the leap somehow, once they finally eliminate all trace of neanderthals and pre-classic greeks.

edit: also, they found the oldest Y-DNA root in cameroon, right where a giant r1b incursion occurred 15k years ago. They ALSO found one in france but they discount that because they figure it was some kind of african immigrant from many generations back.

Now france is right where I expect to see neanderthal DNA show up, but in a cosmopolitan environment it will just be isolated cases here and there.

Since cameroon is also the place in africa that r1b invaded, if they did admix with neanderthal directly then we could hope to see some proto neanderthal y-dna (neanderthal dna is right off A00). Now if we find some full neanderthal DNA in africa or lots of A00 in the likey spots in europe then it will be telling.
 
100% junk science. It's not even that estimates are off, it's just an invalid way to estimate and completely meaningless.

If you know math a little better you wouldn't need an explanation (and now I will probably hear all about how great at math you are, but suffice to say no anthropologist is on the same planet as me on the subject).

All STR and SNP estimates are wrong, because NOMAN IS A MATH GENIUS!

I touched on it a little but I could spend days on the topic and some still would poo poo me.

You haven't touched on the subject, other than a "they're always changing" line of argument that ignores why some changes have happened, and what the actual areas of dispute are. Shouldn't you be trying harder than giving up after having convinced absolutely no one?

And again if you actually read original OoA theorie papers and all about nonsensical serial founder effects you have to realize this is completely contradictory. Either that or they are trying desperately to paint whole genotypes as founded by genocidal murderers.

Founder effects only happen because of genocidal murderers! :gun:

Not like this is a normal pattern in population genetics or anything.

Except oh wait, all of europe shows huge amount of outbreeding compared to actual quick expanding populations like arabs and zulu, who did do large scale genocides of their neighbors. And again in 5k years the signs of this much inbreeding and genocide would be very clear, if they actually existed.

You don't see the anachronism of your comparison here?

Similarly they have said chimp is the nearest ancestor of man even though archaeology for any other species would say it's impossible. A human walks upright. So do gorillas. They are the closest, end of story. Recently they finally sequence a gorilla and guess what? 15% closer than a chimp.

Uh... no. I assume you're talking about Scally 2012, which showed that "15% of the human genome is closer to the gorilla genome than it is to chimpanzee, and 15% of the chimpanzee genome is closer to the gorilla than human." That means that it actually reinforced the idea that chimps are more closely related to humans than gorillas are. You know, because 15% isn't more than 50%. I thought you were the math genius?
 
I will believe in complete IE replacement just as soon as someone can tell me what was in europe before r1b.

...

I would be a great candidate except HEY, I isn't even that old! The granddad of all Is was trundling around europe with his hundred sons from conquered slave wives at the time, or however it is people are trying to paint I's hilarious early arrival to existence.

What are you talking about? Haplogroup I dates to the Paleolithic, even using those STR estimates that you find to be generally too young. I1 bottlenecked, but I2 has a lot of diversity in Europe.
 
I will believe in complete IE replacement just as soon as someone can tell me what was in europe before r1b

There was no such thing as a Complete IE replacement;

The Indo-Europeans inter-mixed with the pre-existing populations forming new Indo-European societies (distinct branches) that were a hybrid of Indo-Europeans and pre-Indo-Europeans;

You will find evidence for that in the fields of Linguistics, Archaeology, Anthropology and even in Historical accounts;

This inter-mixing didnt just occur in Europe it occurred in the entire Indo-European range from Europe - Tarim Basin; In Anatolia (Hittites), Iranian Plateau, Indus valley etc.

And all share a common Indo-European root - Urheimat

The Complete Replacement scenario only exists in your Universe not in reality;


George Bradshaw - Bradshaw's illustrated hand-book to Switzerland and the Tyrol (1899)
Swiss Lake-dwellings - In his careful investigations of pile dwellings, Dr. Studer met with two extreme types of skulls, the brachycephalic and the dolikoccphalic; the former, at Schaffis and Lüschery (Lake of Bienne), belonging to the pure Stone period, and the latter, at Vinolz and Sutz, to the Bronze period. The facts point to an invasion by the Bronze men, involving a complete transformation of the group of domestic animals; the horse appears for the first time, and new races of sheep and dogs replace the older forms of the Stone period. The occurrence of mesocephalic, and even considerably shortened skulls, in the Bronze period, shows that there was no extinction of the brachycephalic race, but that the two races mixed

Caucasoid races:
Nordoid (dolichocephalic) - Mediterranid (dolichocephalic) - Alpinoid (brachycephalic) - Armenoid (brachycephalic)
 
I will believe in complete IE replacement just as soon as someone can tell me what was in europe before r1b.


R1b is a Y DNA haplogroup which is a passed down from father to son exactly like a last name. It does not tell ur full ancestry Not all Europeans have R1b either only around 50% of west Europeans. Well all Europeans are white u know that they all come from a similar ancestry if u think IE's replaced the former population of west europe u must think they were white well then how do u explain Sami and Finnish who are extremley pale pigmentated but dont speak a Indo European language. They have had almost nothing to do with Indo Europeans. Also 7,000 year old hunter gather from north spain so pre indo european west europe his aust dna(tell full ancestry) in the globe13 test was 71% north euro which is a distinct group it originated in Europe is the most popular group in europe and is what makes europeans distnct it pretty mcuh defines being european. I think it should be called Paloithic European because that is what it is it is most popular east of Germany and north of Romania because those areas had the least non European inter marriage that came mainly in the Neolithic.

When u look at aust DNA there is no doubt all Europeans derive from the same Paloithic family that probably arrived in Europe or mixed with many groups that arrived from the mid east 30,000-60,000ybp. The fact all Europeans have pale skin that blonde hair is so popular mainly in the areas paleolithic european north euro dominate which means it probably goes back to Europeans Paloithic ancestors. Europeans are a distinct ethnic group there is no way they come from mid eastern farmers that arrived in the last 10,000 years. The diff indo european groups that conquered almost all of bronze to iron age europe were almost defintley also European genetically they came from mainly around Russia and Ukraine and we have 6,000 year old DNA from INdo European cultures in Ukraine which shows they were Euro's. So it is very hard to detect how much ancestry europeans have from the pre indo europeans and the indo Europeans who invaded. My guess is mainly pre indo european.
 
R1b is a Y DNA haplogroup which is a passed down from father to son exactly like a last name. It does not tell ur full ancestry Not all Europeans have R1b either only around 50% of west Europeans. Well all Europeans are white u know that they all come from a similar ancestry if u think IE's replaced the former population of west europe u must think they were white well then how do u explain Sami and Finnish who are extremley pale pigmentated but dont speak a Indo European language. They have had almost nothing to do with Indo Europeans.

I don't know what point you're making, maybe you misunderstand me.

I'm saying that the Indo Europeans did NOT bring r1b to europe.

I'm saying the whole of everything from north africa to anatolia was all r1b not long after ice age. R1A was further north and went perhaps as far as the heart of india today. We have a ton of I dna in indus valley today and lots of historic references to it so this seems the most likely.


SO HERE'S THE THING.

Obviously, if I is very new then how did this happen, and when? We are talking about mostly historic times here.

So if we take the word of people like sparky who read their first paper, or excerpts in the news, and take the *****-math of english and cultural anthropology grad students seriously we get these very early (meaning new) ages.

Ok.

So what was in all this area we call west europe nowadays before the r1b suddenly showed up?

The reason I ask is that it goes to the core of the methodology of these molecular clocks.

Now we already know europe is continuously inhabited for as much as 20 million years by human ancestors. We have 10+ million year old fossils of hominids with no teeth that obviously got cared for by their family, a human trait.

Now the neanderthals supposedly went extinct, and the neolithich farmers came about 8k years ago (or something) and didn't spread out that far for a long time and their y-dna has practically disappeared. So who built all the standing stones and all that?

If we say it's R* then it means we have a big contradiction, that's my point. The idea of molecular clocks hinge on the giant assumption that they are neutral markers. It's basically a null hypothesis. It's saying all differences in genotypes comes from a series of bottlenecks and founder effects.

But the bottleneck HAS to be the ice age, simply has to. Bottlenecks don't happen in an expansion. So you could respond and say that natural selection is at work but AGAIN contradiction. See we already made the harebrained assumption natural selection doesn't affect it (and indeed for whole OoA nonsense to be true it implies there's no natural selection of any kind, it seems like they want to purposely attack random selection.

So that's it really, molecular clocks disproven. It doesn't require more than that and if guys like sparky can't see it, well you can't teach somebody a math degree over the internet. If I could then I would truly be a math genius.

And with molecular clock dispelled we can just ignore all this crap, because everything stupid we hear about hinges on it in some ways. Basically it's numbers pulled out of someone's behind to justify the story they want to tell. It's circular logic based only on itself. I've seen clocks calibrated to the clovis site in america as well. It's just assuming what you want to believe is true and working backward from there.

edit: tr oll-math. You can't say *****? Weird.
 
There was no such thing as a Complete IE replacement;

The Indo-Europeans inter-mixed with the pre-existing populations forming new Indo-European societies (distinct branches) that were a hybrid of Indo-Europeans and pre-Indo-Europeans;

You will find evidence for that in the fields of Linguistics, Archaeology, Anthropology and even in Historical accounts;

This inter-mixing didnt just occur in Europe it occurred in the entire Indo-European range from Europe - Tarim Basin; In Anatolia (Hittites), Iranian Plateau, Indus valley etc.

And all share a common Indo-European root - Urheimat

The Complete Replacement scenario only exists in your Universe not in reality;


George Bradshaw - Bradshaw's illustrated hand-book to Switzerland and the Tyrol (1899)
Swiss Lake-dwellings - In his careful investigations of pile dwellings, Dr. Studer met with two extreme types of skulls, the brachycephalic and the dolikoccphalic; the former, at Schaffis and Lüschery (Lake of Bienne), belonging to the pure Stone period, and the latter, at Vinolz and Sutz, to the Bronze period. The facts point to an invasion by the Bronze men, involving a complete transformation of the group of domestic animals; the horse appears for the first time, and new races of sheep and dogs replace the older forms of the Stone period. The occurrence of mesocephalic, and even considerably shortened skulls, in the Bronze period, shows that there was no extinction of the brachycephalic race, but that the two races mixed

Caucasoid races:
Nordoid (dolichocephalic) - Mediterranid (dolichocephalic) - Alpinoid (brachycephalic) - Armenoid (brachycephalic)

Good. Finally you are almost on the same page as everyone else!!!

Now just look at the eupedia article for more details, replacement of y-dna is exactly what's being said.

Nobody is disputing any migration occurred but if you think the origin of r1b is that far east and that recently that's when you are in fantasy land.

Like I said, who was there before these relative newcomers got here?

The whole point of this seems to be to try and make europeans feel even more guilty. The r1as are the ones doing the large migrations in the FAR east. As soon as I see some R1B dna from ancient gedrosia or that maykop is half r1a and half r1b then I will shut up. I'll also shut up if I see a bunch of ancient dna in europe that's associated with hunter gatherers that turns out to be some other dna type.

But logically there's this huge gap that has nobody in it if we believe this crap. And if the people in it are R* then read my last post. That means that the molecular clocks are invalid and the circular logic loop is broken. And we come back to the original topic of when and where the I haplogroup comes from.

Plenty of bones to sample from megalithic culture, but some people won't like the answers because they have little to do with the people living there now.

Plenty of nordic looking greek skulls to sample. Plenty of indus valley bones to sample. I was puzzled they have skipped over these completely to sample neolithic farmers, but I am sure it's political. Pakistand and Greece won't go along with that, and the whole idea of craniometry being "racist" came down from the english royals when it became obvious the current round-headed citizens were invaders and the long-headed ones with more neanderthal dna were the previous inhabitants.
 
And actually let me clarify and say I think it could well be R* that came out after the ice age and haven't made that clear. Either way it busts the molecular clock, though, because if it's something you can treat as a neutral marker that won't happen during an expansion.

Basically the mistake for molecular clock is simple. Imagine a couple homeless guys. You observer them 5 minutes then you project his movements back 2 weeks.

Problem one is they don't move the same speed all the time, sometimes they don't move at all (bottleneck) and this can last indefintely.

Problem two is they can move backwards, too. A lot of time they just mill about. (drift)

Problem three is you happen to be observing them in the middle of a bank robbery. (modern civilization, opposite of bottleneck where it's easy to survive, unprecedented expansion)

Problem four is that sometimes one of the bums accidentally finds something cool and ALL the bums rush over to the other bum no matter how far away they are(natural selection).

If these minor problems weren't there molecular clock would be great.
 
I took grad school classes for computer science in simulations, you literally find out the first day of class why you can't do stuff like that. What you can and can't simulate is the first topic you need to know or conclusion you come up with is meaningless.

Why cant we simulate an aircraft's drag by its shape? This is a big argument I had once. Long story short, we have wind tunnels for a reason. But it comes down to the same idea, some things don't simulate, simply can't be calculated and genetics of this kind is one of them. Unfortunately with these lame models there is no real world test to prove the lie, an exploding airplane on the other hand is very dramatic.

DNA from ancient skeletons will eventually make it clear but nobody can force them to investigate the obvious test of their hypotheses if they don't want to.
 
Good. Finally you are almost on the same page as everyone else!!!

Glad to hear your everyone else;
But since we are all on the same page in that there was a pre-Indo-European population and
an Indo-European population (emerging from the East/Caspian-Pontic steppes);
than whats the problem to begin with?

The fact that the Indo-European migration was substantial and dominant is evident in Archaeology and Linguistics;
But it wasnt an Ethnic cleansing - far from it;

i have written some posts on that topic;
maybe you misunderstood me before;


Nobody is disputing any migration occurred but if you think the origin of r1b is that far east and that recently that's when you are in fantasy land. Like I said, who was there before these relative newcomers got here?

I wouldnt know about the origins of R1b and i wouldnt associate the Origins of R1b with the Indo-Europeans;
I have repeatedly stated that i (personally) consider R1b to be both pre-Indo-European as well as Indo-European;
Depending on sub-clade - with R1b-U106 and R1b-U152 being the Indo-European lineages;

However what has been revealed so far is that Neolithic sites are heavily G2a;
Treilles = 20x G2a / 2x I2a1
Ötzi = G2a(L91)
Spain = 5x G2a / 1x E-V13

Where as in the Chalcolithic there is R1a in Eulau (Corded-Ware) and R1b in Kromsdorf (Bell-Beaker)

So the only thing to safely conclude is that pre-Indo-European (Europe) was def. G2a/E-V13/I2a1; prob. maybe more will follow
as for all the rest - all of us on the same page have to simply wait for more data;

Haak et al 2008 -Eulau
http://www.pnas.org/content/105/47/18226.long
Keller et al 2012 - Ötzi
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/journal/v3/n2/pdf/ncomms1701.pdf
Lacan et al 2011 - Neolithic Spain
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2011/10/24/1113061108.full.pdf+html


Plenty of bones to sample from megalithic culture, but some people won't like the answers because they have little to do with the people living there now.and the whole idea of craniometry being "racist" came down from the english royals when it became obvious the current round-headed citizens were invaders and the long-headed ones with more neanderthal dna were the previous inhabitants.

The Bell-Beaker king of Stonehenge was "Bavarian"; I dont think the British were too happy with that;
http://www.munichfound.com/archives/id/82/article/1578/


PS: most of the modern-day British are in fact Dolichocephalic however the Beaker-folks
of the Round-Barrows were Brachycephalic;

History never stands still; Thats why the Documented time-line is important;
 
Noman, what makes your musings so compelling (to me anyway) is that I've wrestled with a lot of these same issues. Trust me, you aren't the only one here that's questioned foundational fundamentals. I've argued against the accuracy of molecular clocks in painful detail on Eupedia (please check my account(s) for verification. You have the political agenda at 80%, I have it closer to 90%-5%-5%. But alas, this takes us to the next step. Taking pot-shots at others' theories is fun (I should know because I'm pretty skilled at it and it makes me happy); defending your own models... eh, not so much. So I'm handing you the podium. It's your world. Tell us tribal movements WITH dates so that we have a better idea of where you want to go with this. For example, how long do you have hg. I in Macedonia before they decided to spread? Please be as specific as possible.
 
And about your math qualifications, don't be afraid to expound on your conclusions. There are some bright people working on this stuff (some may be even reading this wacky thread). Remember, our guru (Ken N.) was instrumental in mapping the moon's gravitional field for NASA so he probably knows how to crunch a few numbers. And even more impressive than that, Ken alters his model based on what new facts show. Not everyone in this arena is brave enough to do that. P.S. TJ thanks for lumping me in with Maciamo and Sparkey-- I'm honored.
 
One last thing, don't hesitate to go "off road" if you feel you must. I ponder Sumerian creation myth for breakfast. If you think you've located an undiscovered rabbit hole, let's hear about it.
 
Noman, what makes your musings so compelling (to me anyway) is that I've wrestled with a lot of these same issues. Trust me, you aren't the only one here that's questioned foundational fundamentals. I've argued against the accuracy of molecular clocks in painful detail on Eupedia (please check my account(s) for verification. But alas, this takes us to the next step.
I think most people do question them but like I said the problem is they are not testing the hypothesis. I read all this "and here in mesolithic these are the haplogroups" woa woa slow down. This is much like if you said "and now in 2525 the president of the united states is Karl Ryan".

There seems to be less and less interest in addressing criticism, and more in putting out some political based polemic.

Speaking of Spencer Wells lately there's more and more evidence stacking up that there's 50k+ year old sites in south america. Now to me clovis first means that you would have had to arrive in north america and immediately head south as fast as you can and spend a couple thousand years building pyramids for all the finds down there to make sense.

So lately it does turn out a lot of sites look to be 50k+ years and his comment on it in regards to out of africa is it must be "an extinct hominid that lived before humans and was replaced". So basically anything to stick to the same lame theory, no matter how sketchy.

Taking pot-shots at others' theories is fun (I should know because I'm pretty skilled at it and it makes me happy);
Yeah and that's what real science is about. Data and rejecting hypotheses. If you are not finding ways to reject hypotheses it's not really science. I have to say there's few papers even in computer science (which I have to read ad nauseum) that take this part seriously, but this is the meat, it's the only way you can actually make real progress.

There's a very closed model for academia and the reason is largely to hide behind safe little walls to protect your own pet theories (and therefore your career). At archaeology conferences they often show any actual fossils as quickly as possible and at distorted angles to blunt criticism.

So how seriously can you take them?

I remember the uproar about the flores man and how silly it was BUT that's how it's supposed to be. You work hard to reject as many hypotheses as possible so eventually what's left is very close to the truth.

defending your own models... eh, not so much. So I'm handing you the podium. It's your world. Tell us tribal movements WITH dates so that we have a better idea of where you want to go with this. For example, how long do you have hg. I in Macedonia before they decided to spread? Please be as specific as possible.

The wild theorizing is not the science part. Having I be the pre-classic greeks is highly conjectural in the first place. I admit that part right off the bat. The problem is, other parties are making wild conjectures and instead of labeling them as such they come out and say it's absolute fact, and not in some forum discussion they make a huge set of papers and write three books and then a few years later it's all proven wrong and you find out they made up half of it in the first place. So they are not scientists, they are song and dance men.

And about your math qualifications, don't be afraid to expound on your conclusions. There are some bright people working on this stuff (some may be even reading this wacky thread). Remember, our guru (Ken N.) was instrumental in mapping the moon's gravitional field for NASA so he probably knows how to crunch a few numbers. And even more impressive than that, Ken alters his model based on what new facts show. Not everyone in this arena is brave enough to do that. P.S. TJ thanks for lumping me in with Maciamo and Sparkey-- I'm honored.
The thing is you don't need to be a math genius to disprove molecular clock, I just did it. Even the provisio that it's "formed sometime before x" is clue enough it's meaningless. After all this sentences was typed sometime before you read it, no big revelation there.

And no I am not a math genius. I like to think I am more of a GENERAL genius! ;)

And I know a former head of nasa and one of the FAA who died a bit back was in the family if that establishes my credentials. Sad fact is, like I said this is highly politicized, simply defending reality makes you a racist pseudoscientist and you'd be very foolish to reveal your ID online especially if you are someone for whom public opinion is an issue. For me it actually is, but that probably sounds more grandiose than the truth. For that matter I think it's foolish for anyone to do so, save that for academic papers and pictures of kittens.

When I say model, too, I am not just talking about "how things are" but the maths they come up with to explain away any effect of natural selection. I'm talking about founder effects and alleged genetic mutation rates and lots of silly stuff that in the end mean nothing. Basically they come up with a model that says how something could happen, and then claim because it could happen, therefore it did happen. It's like that with OoA. It could have happened that way (though this now looks highly unlikely) so they provide the numbers that would make the model work, then they pull out the molecular clock data from these figures and presto you're done. But it's not actually evidence it DID happen let alone proof, and it leaves a bunch of unexplained questions.

The model is being seen as the thing that proves something, when all it is is the shape of your hypothesis, something that fits the numbers. Now you have to test that hypothesis, but why bother when you can fire anyone who questions it on the grounds they are a racist psudoscientist?

So the model is pointless it's the facts we need to learn more about the I group. Like I said that's conjecture, though.

For the r1b though, which is kind of why I came into this thread, I do think that the Rs probably formed before ice age. I highly doubt that they migrated in as the origin of r1b relatively recently and I've said exactly why. We have loads of historical evidence against it and populations that never got converted which are also r1b even though genes flow less quickly than language.

Really, that's it. Now I have mentioned how to test the hypothesis for each scenario but so far no one wants to, that is they don't want to test they are right they want to just say they are right and go unchallenged. I'd love to have the hypothesis tested and figure out for sure what happened. OTOH seemingly no one on the other side is all that eager to test pre-classic greek DNA, or to test stone henge DNA, or to test gedrosian DNA. We'll have to see that to know for sure.

And I was right when it comes to gorillas being closer than chimps, can't tell you how vociferously people argued against that. Then as usual when the punchline comes they act like they expected it all along, no big deal.

Future predictions:
Human gorilla ancestor in europe or asia about 30 million years ago.
Hominid with strong chin found in china 300k+ years ago, real source of "modern" humans.
More AOO found in Ireland or France or Basque country and attributed to african descent many centuries back.
Ancient I DNA that breaks molecular clock.
Ancient R1B in iberia that proves iberian expansion of (most but not all r1b).
More genes that have neanderthal as ancestral clade.
Hopefully, some neanderthal descended y-DNA or mtDNA.
Ancient Australian y-DNA that is further upstream than A00.
 
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