My latest post on the Bronze-Iron Age debate:
But the IA ones did live next to Anatolia and don't have an Anatolian shifted profile. If that Anatolian impact was limited in the IA, why would it be big in the BA? For Greece there are clear signs of heavy interaction, even population flows, from Anatolia during the Aegean Bronze age. I have not seem the same suggestion for Southern Bulgaria. And again, with any other location the question would be: why is the profile not more like the ones nearby?
They had a Greco-Anatolian shifted profile. The problem is that different mixtures in different ratios can produce similar results in G25 and on the PCA. The shift which took place in the LBA-EIA can be easily visualised by the weaponry which was used, from the dominance of Mycenaean rapiers to the Naue II/Reutlingen type swords from the Carpathian basin:
Protovillanovans, Middle Danubian Urnfielders and G?va (not as clearly visible on this map, but its the case) are contenders for the earliest producers. You can see the concentration along the Tisza, in the Lapus to G?va zone for Naue II-slashing swords. In the Balkans the movement of the new weapons and military tactics was from the Tisza zone to Belegis II-G?va and from there to everywhere else, with a second route directly from the Protovillanovans over sea reaching Greece as well.
Point is, the overlap with the main E-V13 expansion event is 1:1. There can be no doubt about the E-V13 warriors expanding with Naue II swords and other items (casted spearheads, round heavy shields etc.) in the Balkans.
Both Bulgaria and Greece were reached secondarily by groups of Protovillanovans and in masse Eastern Urnfielders with the Channelled Ware horizon.
Especially Northern Greece and Bulgaria were significantly lagging behind, both in pottery and weaponry, because they received the innovations from the mixed groups which moved into their territory, not from the primary groups.
Another visualisation:
That's the exact timing for the main E-V13 expansion event (1.300-900 BC).
This phase is also crucial for the formation of actual Thracian people. The archaeological situation in Bulgaria is complicated, really sufficient research and complete finds rare. Compare with this article:
A fascinating 3200-year-old settlement has been discovered in Northwest Bulgaria. The settlement shows evidence of being inhabited periodically, with building material and artefacts from the Late Bronze Age, Ancient Thrace, the Roman Empire and the Middle Ages.
The site was unearthed during rescue excavations along the proposed route of a pipeline to transport gas from Russia to Central Europe. It is the third archaeological site to be discovered along the route, but so far it is the only ?multi-layered? settlement.
?Here in this spot we can see how life started back ca. 1,200 BC, then it was inhabited again in the 5th - 4th century BC (Ancient Thrace), then there was a hiatus, and then it was inhabited again in the 3rd century AD at the time when the region was a Roman province,? said lead archaeologist Dr Andrey Aladzhov from the National Institute and Museum of Archaeology in Sofia.
A dwelling from the 10th century AD has also been discovered at the site. The artefacts found suggest that it was inhabited from the time of the First Bulgarian Empire, up to the Ottoman period in the early 15th century.
The most numerous of the artefacts found across the site are preserved pottery vessels from the Bronze Age. The decorated pots, which date back to the time of the Trojan War, are from the Orsoya - Baley Culture, a prehistoric population that inhabited the region between the Danube River and the Balkan Mountains.
?The vessels and their decoration are typical of the classic Mediterranean culture and show that back then were close cultural ties between these settlements near the Danube and the population of the Mediterranean coast,? Aladzov elaborates.
A burial urn containing bone particles was discovered close to the prehistoric structure, which will be carbon dated to more accurately determine the age of the dwelling.
Artefacts found in another notable structure clearly display the different layers of history, one on top of the other. These include a male ring from the Late Bronze Age, shards of luxury pottery, most likely imported from Hellenistic Greece, a coin from the Roman Republic, which first conquered the region for Ancient Rome, two Roman era fibulas and an earring from the Middle Ages.
Coins from the Early Byzantine period and the traces of a dugout from the 15th century have also been discovered.
?The most valuable finds for us are the ceramic vessels because they are stratified in the best way, situated in time in the best way, so here based upon the pottery, we know which layer is from the Bronze Age culture, the so called Proto-Thracians, which layer is from the Hellenistic period, and which is from the Roman period,? Aladzov explained.
The site was originally detected through geological surveying and is presently situated in a sunflower field. The area has been subjected to agricultural cultivation to a substantial depth for several years so finding a Bronze Age structure is very surprising, as most of the structures from that period have been destroyed. However, significant damage has also been caused by treasure hunters using heavy machinery to access the sites, which is a common plague to Bulgaria?s archaeological heritage, according to Aladzov.
Despite the wealth of archaeological finds already unearthed, there is still the potential for more to be uncovered.
?The site has an area of 10 decares but we are excavating about 1 decare of that. Based on the results, the Ministry of Culture is going to decide what steps would be taken next,? said Aladzov.
https://www.theculturalexperience.c...-settlement-discovered-in-northwest-bulgaria/
Culturally the people were a Danubian-Mediterranean mix, and presumably, at least on the long run, they became such genetically too. Look at the site of Bailey more in detail:
This paper considers four cremation graves at the necropolis of Baley in Northwest Bulgaria. The AMS radiocarbon dates of
the graves cover the time span between the 14th and 11th century calBC, a period that is conventionally accepted to represent the
Late Bronze Age and the beginning of the Early Iron Age in the region. The relations between the Encrusted Pottery Culture,
Bistreţ-Işalniţa and V?rtop groups/cultures are discussed as well. The beginning of the Bistreţ pottery style is placed within the
Encrusted Pottery Culture milieu in the 14th century BC. It is accepted that the style gradually develops in what is generally
known as V?rtop pottery style. The end of this process is dated to the mid-11th century BC when the large cremation necropolises
(Urnenfelder) in the region seized to exist.
Two main foreign influences shaped Bulgaria in that region: Encrusted Pottery (I2-G2 dominated, WHG-rich, Danubian block) and Channelled Ware related early groups (Carpatho-Balkan cremation block). The problem for this region in the earlier periods is, concerning ancient DNA, the same as for the Tisza zone:
Only cremation burial was practiced over the en-
tire excavated area; cremation was performed somewhere
else and some of the burnt bones were collected from the
pyre, cleaned and placed in one or more ceramic vessels
used as urns. In terms of chronology, 16 features were
dated to the Middle Bronze Age and could be related to
the Verbicioara III Culture.
https://www.researchgate.net/public...ng_of_the_Iron_Age_in_the_Lower_Danube_region
Despite considerable investigations in the Lower Dan-
ube and Banat regions, the number of available radiocarbon
dates is limited. Radiocarbon dates comparable to Baley
have been yielded by the recently excavated bi-ritual necrop-
olis of C?mpina (Prahova district) in the sub-Carpathian
area. The materials from the 60 published graves have been
assigned to the Tei, Monteoru, and Noua cultures. Of the
total of 16 published radiocarbon dates, 14 fall within the
15th?12th century BC, and the other two within the 11th?10th
century BC. Graves 2, 7, 30, and 31 yielded radiocarbon
dates similar to the first Baley group, and nos. 10 and 23,
to the second one. Grave 2 contained a richly decorated
two-handled pot, referred by the excavator to the Fundeni
phase of Tei Culture, with good parallels in the Fundenii
Doamnei/Fundeni-Govora, and Zimnicea-Plovdiv cultural
groups47. It is therefore reasonable to accept a synchroni-
zation of those cultural phenomena with the earlier grave
group at Baley and with levels III?II at the settlement site.
Fundeni-Govora is mostly a Verbicoara-Tei mix, with the former becoming more dominant. So we see Verbicoara to take over most of Tei or fuse with it. So that's a potential early spread of E-V13, but the main one, again in complete synchrony with the spread of the new weaponry and tactics (Naue II-slashing swords, casted spearheads, heavy round shields etc.) and the E-V13 phylogeny with a mean expansion event is with G?va-related Channelled Ware:
The second group of Baley radiocarbon dates corre-
sponds to the ones from the earlier phase of G?va culture,
which is connected to the beginning of the ?channeled
pottery style? in Transylvania. At the Lăpuş barrow, ?the
dating range for contexts with channeled black-and-red-
pottery in the G?va style lies between 1380?1120 cal B.C.?48
However, a correction for the earliest dates at Lăpuş has
been proposed, ?eliminating at least the 14th century? for
the first appearance of channeled ware49. In terms of rel-
ative chronology, the Pre-G?va/G?va I culture has been
synchronized with Belegi??Cruceni II, while the post-1050
ВС period has been associated with Ha B1 and the G?va
II phase50. For the territory of Banat and the Iron Gates,
several ?cultural groups? have been identified within the
mid-Ha A1 ? mid/end of Ha A2 period: Susani, Bobda,
Ticvanul Mare, Moldova Noua-Liborajdea, Hinova-Mala
Vrbiţa, etc.51 We are inclined to think that the radiocarbon
dates for the second group at Baley confirm, although with
small modifications, such a synchronization.
In this region of Bulgaria, the transition is from Encrusted Pottery, to Channelled Ware:
About 10 % of the Antimovo ceramic assem-
blage are typical for the Encrusted Pottery Culture, and
some 50 % are diagnostic for the ?channeled ware? that can
be assigned to both Bistreţ and V?rtop groups64.
In summary, we argue that two groups within the dis-
cussed region ? Bistreţ and V?rtop ? date to the end of
the Bronze Age and the beginning of the Iron Age, re-
spectively.
Encrusted Pottery influences weren't completely annihilated, they even survived into the Stamped Pottery later, but the point is, the dominant group, newcomers, were from the Carpatho-Balkan sphere and spread Channelled Ware. As the author wrote, the question can only be answered by ancient DNA and we know from nearly all regions that the Channelled Ware newcomers oftentimes left not much traces behind in their burial rites - and of course cremated anyway:
We believe that only further analyses of,
among other things, the gender/age groups, aDNA, and
stable isotopes, can answer the question: Is Bistreţ-Işalniţa a
separate group or is it only the result of a gradual transition
from rounded to squared midsection of the vessels and
from encrusted to channeled pottery style? However, we
cannot dispute the fact that there is not a single necropolis
connected ?to Bistreţ-Işalniţa group only?58
https://www.researchgate.net/public...ng_of_the_Iron_Age_in_the_Lower_Danube_region
But seriously, if modern archaeologists in that context are not sure and say ancient DNA testing is necessary, it basically means we have to expect a replacement event, we just need the confirmation.
And again, we have all the indications for partial local continuity during and after the conquest, just like in Troy, which basically means that the newcomers mixed with the locals, especially the local females. The later Thracian culture provides us with ideal customs for that pattern as well (treatment of widows, polygyny etc.).
The local population in the South East of Thrace was mostly Greco-Anatolian, so we have to expect more Central Balkan type ancestry (like in Belegis II-G?va, presumably similar to the Himerans) mix with locals which were essentially "Mediterranean" with their genetic profile and closest to the Greeks of that time.
In the South East, the succession was Channelled Ware on Mycenaean dominated layers, like here, in later Thracian areas of Northern Greece ("lustrous" = Channelled Ware):
At Thasos, the layers with lustrous ceramics are separated from
those containing Mycenaean-style pottery. At the cemetery near Kastri, there are
burials with inhumation and lustrous pottery on top of inhumations with Mycenaean as
well as incised ware. She describes this as a clear terminus post quem for the appearance
of lustrous pottery on the site (Koukouli-Chryssanthaki 1978: 255).
So we see a direct succession, and presumably mixture, of people from more Northern regions which brought Channelled Ware with locals, which were Greco-Anatolian oriented, just like in Troy. That's an opinion expressed long ago:
Demetrios Grammenos compared the incised ware from Exohi and Potamoi with the
finds from Aggista and stressed that there are no imports to use for more precise dating,
while the similarities in the handmade pottery must give a date within the LHIIIC period
(Grammenos 1979: 58). He also compared this pottery with the lower Danube cultures
of Girla Mare, Verbicoara and Tei, whose latest horizons have been dated within 1300-
1200 BC. Based on the difference in dates, Grammenos assumes that this type of pottery
must have originated somewhere in central Europe and that it could have brought the
?Geometric? style to Attica from the Danube area (Grammenos 1979: 60).
And there is evidence for the military turmoil in the Transitional Period as well, exactly when Channelled Ware and Naue II swords appear:
The settlement was the first with preserved defensive stone architecture
discovered in Upper Thrace. The site was provisionally dated 1400-1100 BC (Stefanovich
and Bankoff 1988: 268). Archaeomagnetic evidence, however, gave a much shorter date
range for the destruction of the site between 1230 and 1160 BC (Jordanova and
Kovacheva 2007), where the thickness of the archaeological layer does not suggest an
extended occupation prior to that.
With the destruction appears new pottery with knobs in many areas:
The ceramic material from this site mostly consists
of plain ware, with a dark-brown, grey or blackish surface, amphoras type A4, kylikes
type KY2, bowls type B1 and kantharoi K1 and K1.1. Bi-conical silhouettes and sharp
body transitions dominate (Figure 8.6). A comparable assemblage was discovered at the
burial site at Sandanski. If the date from Kamenska Chuka is acceptable also for
Sandanski, that means that towards the end of the 13th and the beginning of the 12th
centuries an S-shaped amphora with knobs and open kantharos type K4.1 appear, which
are comparable to the Eastern Rhodopean examples from the Transitional Period. This
material is also comparable with the necropolis at Ulanci in today?s F.Y.R.O.M., dated
between the end of the 14th and the beginning of the 12th century BC (Mitrevski 1997:
26-70; 2007: 443).
The appearance of little knobs and horn-like projections on some kantharoi from
Sandanski and Kamenska Chuka are considered later elements, originating in the Bronze
Age, but well developed in the EIA (Alexandrov et al. 2007: 379).
That's the beginning of groups from the Northern-Central Balkans moving in, as the pressure mounts from the North, from G?va itself, and one after another moves East and South, under this pressure, and with the abilty to do so, with the new weaponry and tactics. The first which start the onslaught are the fleeing Brnjica people:
Similar vessels and general similarities within the entire pottery repertoire can be seen
in the necropoleis at Ulanci, Klucka-Hippodrome, and other sites from the Brnjica group.
But that was not the end, shortly afterwards the Belegis II-G?va/Channelled Ware groups themselves arrived, from which Brnjica and Encrusted Pottery had fled before:
When addressing the end of the LBA, Dragi Mitrevski considers the necropolis at Klujcka-
Hippodrome in Skopje (Mitrevski 1994; Savopoulou 1987; 1988), as a site associated
with new arrivals from the north, who brought cremation in urns covered by tumuli.
According to Mitrevski that arrival happens during the 12th or the very beginning of the
11th century BC. A similar situation can be observed in Kastanas, layers 12 and 11.
That was a clear break and massive invasion:
The burnt layers in the Lower Vardar settlements of Kastanas and Vardaroftsa Vardino have
witnessed destructions coinciding with that period and a significant change in the
material culture. The settlement of the Ulanci Necropolis was also burned and never
rebuilt. The population of the LBA settlement at Vardarski Rid in Gevgelija seems to have
relocated to a position at the nearby hill of ?Kofilak?. It seems like the processes related
to these destruction events seem to have ended the LBA in the Struma Valley area as
well as on various sites in F.Y.R.O.M. and Central Macedonia.
https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10042028/1/Nenova_10042028_thesis_volume1_redacted.pdf
Again = the arrival of Channelled Ware, new weaponry and tactics - ideal synchrony with the main E-V13 expansion event.
And its not just one arrival from the Central-Northern Balkans, ultimately with influences from the Carpathians, but a whole series of invasions! On the other hand, in the preceding periods, we see a dominance of Mycenaean influences in the South, close connections to Greece and Anatolia. Therefore the logical assumption is that we would find a population between the Mycenaeans and Central-Northern Balkan groups. BGR_IA is not that far from this. The Himerans are clearly closer to the Northern-Central Balkan group, and where G?va will land in this context, we will hopefully find out eventually, so far the Mezocsat samples are the best we got, but not ideal - and no males.