G25 Weighted average for ethnic Russians

[Tomenable]

I have G25 data (either real or simulated from K36) only for 24 ethnic Russian regional populations, but I extrapolated genetic profiles of various Oblasts into neighbouring Oblasts in cases where I was quite sure that genetics of neighbouring Oblasts is most likely similar. Other Oblasts (where I had no idea what their genetics is like) were not taken into account in this calculation (I assumed that their genetics is like Russian Average).

Here is the average produced with this method:

Russian_Average,0.12866212,0.10134919,0.07693777,0.06850128,0.02928383,0.02268323,0.01026243,0.01348185,-0.00281759,-0.02736825,0.00197604,-0.00962902,0.01843235,0.01474893,-0.01214076,-0.00222757,0.00225557,-0.00136616,0.00028624,0.00132261,-0.00305234,-0.0005387,0.0043637,-0.0041484,-0.00053828

Distance to: Russian_Average
0.01120003 Russian_Novgorod
0.01128486 Russian_Yaroslavl
0.01273586 Russian_Tver
0.01568765 Russia_RUS_Tambov
0.01574222 Russian_Ryazan
0.01651813 Russia_RUS_Novosibirsk
0.01709045 Russian_Kostroma
0.01768515 Russia_RUS_Moscow
0.01852742 Russia_RUS_Volgograd
0.01939635 Russian_Kursk
0.02300764 Russian_Oryol
0.02312668 Russian_Voronezh
0.02378050 Russian_Kaluga
0.02519762 Russian_Nizhny_Novgorod
0.02554885 Russia_RUS_Siberia_Starover
0.02659589 Russia_RU_Bryansk
0.02736934 Russian_Pskov
0.02932042 Russia_RUS_Kirov
0.03011931 Russian_Belgorod
0.03131773 Russian_Lipetsk
0.03136405 Russian_Smolensk
0.03878828 Russia_RUS_Perm
0.04182512 Russia_RUS_Vologda
0.04645407 Russian_Arkhangelsk

Population size was taken from this table (it shows estimated population on 1 January 2025):

Federal subjects of Russia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And percent of ethnic Russians in each region was taken from 2021 census or 2010 census.

Here a map and a table showing how I calculated this and which regions were assumed to have which genetic profile:

Map shows which genetic profile was used for which region:

 

[Tomenable]

What do you think guys? I guess you expected a more southern average.

 

[Riverman]

The main shift is clearly towards Finnish/Uralics/East-North Asian compared to the early Slavic standard. This shift is, quite obviously, not the same in all regions and samples. Is your sampling a bit North shifted? The Finnish/Asian shift seems to be a bit too strong otherwise, even if being compared to other G25 Russian samples.

 

[Power]

i ran it with my model

devils cave is east eurasian btw. (for lurkers who dont know)

 

[Tomenable]

E.g. Russian_Novosibirsk population is pretty northern-shifted considering its location.

It shows that Novosibirsk was settled by people from Kostroma>Kirov>Perm direction:

Distance to: Russia_RUS_Novosibirsk
0.01167739 Russian_Kostroma
0.01187907 Russia_RUS_Siberia_Starover
0.01560379 Russia_RUS_Kirov
0.02335976 Russia_RUS_Perm
0.02421825 Russian_Novgorod
0.02634443 Russian_Yaroslavl
0.02653464 Russian_Tver
0.02863028 Russia_RUS_Vologda
0.02944219 Russian_Ryazan
0.03031224 Russia_RUS_Tambov
0.03314356 Russia_RUS_Volgograd
0.03364766 Russia_RUS_Moscow
0.03371003 Russian_Arkhangelsk
0.03491118 Russian_Kursk
0.03816985 Russian_Oryol
0.03895146 Russian_Voronezh
0.03930758 Russian_Nizhny_Novgorod
0.03937595 Russian_Kaluga
0.04190864 Russian_Lipetsk
0.04220881 Russian_Pskov
0.04272703 Russia_RU_Bryansk
0.04483811 Russian_Belgorod
0.04718350 Russian_Smolensk

This is based on K36 (simulated G25) but I sent these samples to Davidski today, so maybe he will add them to G25 datasheets.

 

[Anfänger]

i ran it with my model

devils cave is east eurasian btw. (for lurkers who dont know)

Only 5% WHG? That must be wrong.

 

[Power]

Only 5% WHG? That must be wrong.

i am very content with my model

it is just what G25 shows . WHG is not high in most people

 

[Anfänger]

i am very content with my model

it is just what G25 shows . WHG is not high in most people

I usually use the same populations but for Western Europeans it’s like 10% WHG. I would expect higher rates for Russians/Eastern Europeans.

Maybe it’s just G25 being G25 again.

 

[Riverman]

Only 5% WHG? That must be wrong.

I guess its in the EHG, since those two component can affect each other.

 

[traveller]

There are theories that a big percentage of Russians between Urals and the Volga used to be Fenno-Ugric tribes 1000-1500 years ago.

As to Siberia and southern Russia, all ethnic Russians are migrants from 1600 onwards, most of them within the last century.

 

[Tomenable]

^^^
Yes, for example this is the probable direction of migration of Russians to Novosibirsk:

 

[Riverman]

How does the Ryazan oblast compare to the average?

 

[traveller]

There are theories that a big percentage of Russians between Urals and the Volga used to be Fenno-Ugric tribes 1000-1500 years ago.

According to the “Ancient DNA connects large-scale migration with the spread of Slavs” study (BAL - Baltic-like):

in the Volga-Oka area, the Slavic transition coincides with a significant decrease of BAL ancestry (from 65 ± 2% to 55 ± 7%), suggesting that the SP newcomers originated from a region further to the west of the Volga-Oka area where they incorporated additional ancestry not local to Eastern Europe.