Politics Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

[Tomenable]

Just like the Volksdeutsche during World War II. This is like being catapulted back in history.

I'm not sure if it is true but I've read that Putler invaded Ukraine exactly at 4:45 AM.
(which is the same hour and minute as the moment when Fall Weiss began in 1939)

Putler also has a weird habit of invading after Winter Olympics games:

Beijing 2008 - Georgia
Sochi 2014 - Crimea
Beijing 2022 - Ukraine

Milano 2026 - ?????

 

[Riverman]

More sanctions will only worsen the situation for all. The real weak spot of Russia is China. As long as China is willing to back Russia up, which seems to have been the agreement they made, they can't be hit hard enough economically.
Obviously, if that alliance holds, this is a new axis which can't be put down that easily at all.
Russia wants the Ukraine, especially Crimea, and a strong position in the Near East, while China wants Taiwan and a hegemony in South East Asia.
The dependence on Russian resources is bad enough, but the Chinese supply chain and financial power is far bigger.
So the real issue is how closely allied and coordinated these two states really are.
The next issue is how stable the position of Putin in Russia itself is, whether he can fully rely upon his state, administration and people.
As long as the Chinese alliance and the support by the Russian people holds, there is no reasonable way to stop the invasion.
The best solution will be in any case a political compromise as soon as possible.

 

[Tomenable]

The most important thing for all sides which want to be constructive and realise a peaceful solution is that the Russians and Ukrainians get back to the table and negotiate. There should be a solution for a longer lasting peace with which both sides can live with. This shouldn't be solved with brute force to the bitter end, because if this would happen, we're dealing with lots of deaths and destruction, but also with a serious threat for the future of Europe, even mankind if something goes even more wrong. This should be contained as fast as possible and as things are, this means there must be a political compromise.

It is delusional to think that talks are currently possible at this point. The milk has already been spilled. We have a mess, and as one politician once said, "you can make scrambled eggs out of eggs, but you can't turn scrambled eggs back into eggs". It is not 3 Roentgen, it is 15000.

First, Russian army must get a beating and learn a lesson. Talks will be possible again AFTER Russian forces get beaten.

And actually it would be the best, if Russian people rebel and depose Putin. There are already protests in many cities.

I think Ukrainian morale is high, like in this video:

 

[Tomenable]

More sanctions will only worsen the situation for all.

I disagree because more sanctions can lead to a coup d'etat in Russia and Putler will be defeated by his own countryman.

That would be the ideal ending.

 

[Palermo Trapani]

Northerner: I do look at things with an Economic viewpoint, not in insolation to principles of free elections and individual rights (Freedom of the Press, Speech, religion, etc) and I am no fan of Multinational Corporations that have to much influence over US foreign policy (Trade and Supply chains stretched all over the world, to dependent on China for too much stuff). But Economics does impact how one deals with other Nations. But let me look at what I can see happening. Let's assume Putin takes control over Ukraine, he then can control the distribution point of all the oil and gas that goes through Ukraine land based pipelines. He is not worried about what the USA, UK, and lets say even the Europeans further West think, but if he can drive a wedge between Germany and the rest of Europe by lets say shutting down the Ukrainian pipeline. What happens then? that is why I keep coming back to the over dependence on Russian Oil and Gas by too many NATO allies. You immediately have a conflict between your National Security Policy and your Economic policy which in this case impacts your foreign policy with Russia and Putin. Your NATO policy is designed to contain and fight him if he invades a NATO ally but your economy is tied to Putin and Russia providing all your energy needs. The whole thing is just irrational or in layperson terms, stupid and crazy.

 

[Tomenable]

Most people don't know the "nature" of Ukrainians, especially during wartime.

Already in the 1600s sources described Ukrainian Cossacks as "suicidal soldiers" - they aren't afraid of death, at all.

They are similar to the Japanese, Americans will know what I'm talking about.

=====

I think Russians rarely fought against Ukrainians during history, so they haven't learned about their fanaticism yet.

 

[Tomenable]

^^^
Ukrainian Cossacks also raided Turkish cities along the Black Sea coast in primitive boats. And were victorious!

These people will fight you with bamboo sticks, and still inflict heavy casualties. They are like the Japanese.

So I'm actually not too worried about Russian technological superiority (which is not even that significant).

This should be contained as fast as possible

The only way to contain this as fast as possible, would be to gang up on Russia and invade it from all sides.

But this will not happen, other countries will not directly help Ukraine, they only supply it with weapons.

So we need to prepare for a long war of attrition (lasting months, maybe years) between Ukraine vs. Russia.

I don't think this will end fast.

 

[Tomenable]

The best solution will be in any case a political compromise as soon as possible.

Ukrainian authorities already publicly announced that - quote - "Russian soldiers will drown in their own blood."

And you mention a political compromise? I think it is impossible. Not before one of the armies emerges victorious.

I think that if Ukrainians manage to inflict heavy casualties on the Russian forces, Putin's regime will collapse.

=====

I think that Putin expected Anschluss, he did not actually expect any significant resistance.

But instead of Anschluss he is getting Talvisota.

 

[Riverman]

I think that Putin expected Anschluss, he did not actually expect any significant resistance.
But instead of Anschluss he is getting Talvisota.

I'm not sure about his plans in detail, but he surely is not that naive.
He might expect support in specific regions and groups, but that there would be stiff resistance was predictable. He and his advisors had to account for that and adapt their plans accordingly.
I guess the pressure on the leadership and support in the Ukrainian parliament need to be looked at more carefully.

 

[Tomenable]

I'm not sure about his plans in detail, but he surely is not that naive.

In his pre-invasion speech, he said that all Ukrainians are Russians and must reunite with Mother Russia.

So - if he really believes his own propaganda - it is very probable that he expected no serious resistance.

Then in another speech he encouraged Ukrainian soldiers to defect to the Russian side because people who rule Ukraine are "drug addicts and neo-nazis".

 

[Malaparte]

What anti-American Marxist professor taught you European history?

I went to a small liberal arts college back in the early 90s. I was a History major, focus modern European. Minor was interdisciplinary and centered on the "great books" tradition. I also took a hefty dose of political theory on the side. Most of my professors were good whiggish liberals, a handful were Marxists, one was a right-wing Heidegger specialist. I learned from all of them.

You, however, were evidently taught by a solid panel of neo-conservatives. Oh, so much for you to be proud of!! Bombing European Christians in Serbia, then Afghanistan & Iraq, next Libya, Syria and the Maidan color revolution. It must be nice to always be on the side of truth & justice. And such brilliant stewardship of the nation you purport to love.

You have every right to take a condescending tone with me on matters of population genetics. I have always been quick to admit that much of the science is way over my head. I frequent this site only because of my general interest in history.

But when it comes to history & politics in general, you might want to think twice before resorting to abusive rhetoric.

It's the Europeans who most fear a resurgent, militarized Germany, because they were the ones who had to suffer from their occupation. The western nations enthusiastically supported the idea of NATO; they just wanted us to pay for it. The former eastern bloc countries PLEADED to get into NATO because they knew what it was like to live under the Russian boot and knew Putin would try to restore Russian hegemony over all of Eastern Europe at the first opportunity.

It's useless talking to people who haven't read European or American history, for that matter, written by people other than Marxists.

Open your eyes and listen to what people who actually lived in Eastern Europe tell you. Or are you just a younger version of John Reed, one of that whole brigade of so easily deluded Americans who caused so much trouble because ideology blinded them. To protect that ideology, they lied not only to the world but to themselves. As Mary McCarthy famously said of Lillian Hellman, "Everything she writes is a lie, including "a" and "the".

Let me give you a brief little lesson on European history. Treaty of Versailles, an unjust peace imposed on a country, Germany, whose troops were still on French soil at time of armistice. Result: a revisionist Germany in the 1930s. Fast forward to the 1990s, the USSR disintegrates from internal causes, never defeated on the battlefield. And what does the West do? It imposes an unjust peace on Russia and expands NATO eastward. Result: a revisionist Russia in the 2020s.

As for whether the Europeans continue to fear a resurgent, militarized Germany some 75 years after wwii, I think they need to get a grip of the real choices before them and stop living in fantasyland.

Put simply, the USA needs to "pivot" to East Asia. Such a pivot implies turning our back on Europe, that is, shifting the great bulk of our military resources out of Europe. Thus we have the question: After the US pivots, who will defend Europe? Choice #1, Russia defends Europe. However, this possibility is contingent on *not* making an enemy of Russia. And I believe, regardless of what is happening now, that this will be the ultimate disposition. Russia and Europe will come to terms and enter into a new security architecture with each other. Choice #2, Germany remilitarizes as a "hedge" against possible Russian aggression. Choice #3, a pan-European army that replaces NATO, with France as the leading military power.

So let the Europeans put aside their nightmares about Germany & Russia and learn to live as adult nations again. Or shall they rely on Turkey to defend them?

 

[Malaparte]

And to state the obvious: Germany sits much closer to Russia than France. That's why it is for Germany to be the prime defender of Europe in the coming years. Again, geopolitical facts determine all, whether people like it or not.

 

[Tomenable]

This comment by some user from another forum is on point, quote:
(I think this user lives in one of the Baltic States but I'm not sure)

"There's a huge difference in how is this conflict seen in the post-Soviet countries and elsewhere. I get the feeling that you see it detached, as a power transfer in the similar way to the shocking occupation of Crimea, that once the regular military of Ukraine is silenced, things will calm down. Perhaps even Putin, in his delusions about return of the Soviet Union, believed that.

To Ukrainians and every country that was once behind the Iron Curtain, it is not. Many people remember the life under Soviet Union, and they taught that to their children. Short of small group of decrepit collaborators who benefited from that rule and some unscrupulous bootlickers, nobody wants that brought back. And they see Putin's regime trying to do just that. You can see the difference in response. Around here, it feels like it's the commitment to NATO and EU that's holding back the desired response while western politicians squabble about SWIFT.

And Ukrainians feel that even more. For them, it's a fight to keep their national identity and freedom. So I'm telling you, Ukrainians will fight. Kiev will be the bloodiest urban battle since Stalingrad."

Source: https://forums.civfanatics.com/threads/russia-invades-ukraine.675558/page-42#post-16231251

 

[Malaparte]

Let's assume Putin takes control over Ukraine, he then can control the distribution point of all the oil and gas that goes through Ukraine land based pipelines.

Ukraine is also the breadbasket of Europe. So Putin now has control over energy & much of the grain supply.

He is not worried about what the USA, UK, and lets say even the Europeans further West think, but if he can drive a wedge between Germany and the rest of Europe by lets say shutting down the Ukrainian pipeline. What happens then?

Germany & Russia are closely linked economically. This is a fact, the kind of fact that will become even more of a "fact" as time goes by. An intelligent US policy would take account of such inevitabilities in formulating fundamental policy.

If we try to make Europe choose between Russia and the US, they will eventually opt for Russia. Why? For reasons of close geography under conditions of globalized competition. And after two years of covid tyranny, now to be followed by intense suffering due to astronomical fuel costs, Europeans will quickly conclude that Russian suzerainty wouldn't be so bad after all

 

[Angela]

I lived for almost 3 decades in the dictatorship of the communist lie brought to most of Europe by the criminal "geniuses" imposed by the Bolsheviks. I don't want anyone else to suffer from this from now on!

The Putin apologists, the Malaparte's of the world, don't care; they don't care if all of Eastern Europe falls back under Russian control.

I was in Romania on business in the last year of Ceausescu's rule; I was very young, still naive, and it was my first important business trip and one of the worst experiences of my life. It was like being in hell, and I was only there for about two weeks; I didn't have to live under a dictatorship, without adequate food, or electricity for heating water and cooking, or medicines, and with everything bugged and informers everywhere. I found three bugs in my hotel room. One night, in order to meet with some people who were being watched we had to tear around Bucharest like madmen to lose a tail. I don't know how the people I met there, educated, cultured people all, survived it emotionally and psychologically intact. The only semblance of normality was when my contact drove me up into Transylvania, where some farmers were allowed a bit of freedom and could farm their own crops and keep their own animals. Their hospitality and generosity in such horrible circumstances was one of the most humbling experiences of my life.

I got my contact into terrible trouble because I sent him a subscription for National Geographic. It took me years to forgive myself.

I'd fight to the death too if I thought that was going to be the fate of my children.

How anyone can excuse what Putin is doing to the Ukrainians, indeed what he does every day to his own people is beyond my understanding. It's pure evil, and it's evil to excuse it.

[h=1][/h]

 

[Northener]

but we are so naïve
and we like to think we have a moral compass
but we are not sharp

I wish I could believe you.
It seems Ukraine is building up some resistance, they are brave, but they don't stand a chance.
Putin does not need to occupy Ukraine.
He just wants to remove the democracy and replace it by a puppet gevernment.
Like he has already succeeded in Bielorussia.

As for the fugitives arriving at the Polish border, they are women and children.
The men stay to fight the enemy.
It's quite the oposite of the so-called fugitives that tried and entered Europe the last 20 years or more.

Our judgment is not. Wasn't Putin the rationalist? The language he speaks (now) is literally and figuratively something out of the history books for Western leaders.

And the West turns a blind eye when it comes to making a profit relative to the moral antenna... So when it comes down to it we're not so moralistic at all (said the man from the land of the merchant and the vicar

History has knocked on the door again bicicleur, technocrats and it's all about the economics do not get us any further in that respect.

I agree with Tomenable. You can change a regime, but without strong support, still with active resistance from the population, an occupation of 150,000 is by no means enough.

 

[Northener]

Ukraine is also the breadbasket of Europe. So Putin now has control over energy & much of the grain supply.

Germany & Russia are closely linked economically. This is a fact, the kind of fact that will become even more of a "fact" as time goes by. An intelligent US policy would take account of such inevitabilities in formulating fundamental policy.

If we try to make Europe choose between Russia and the US, they will eventually opt for Russia. Why? For reasons of close geography under conditions of globalized competition. And after two years of covid tyranny, now to be followed by intense suffering due to astronomical fuel costs, Europeans will quickly conclude that Russian suzerainty wouldn't be so bad after all

First of all the Russian have a simplistic economy the BBP is that of the much much smaller Benelux. 60% depend on rude products like oil and gas. 84% of the gas goes to Europe.

Ok that means a certain dependence on Russia for oil and gas, especially in countries like Germany. But for the short term the winter is over and so is the demand for oil and gas. We will have to look for alternatives more quickly. The USA has already increased LNG production, Qatar also seems to be willing to supply extra. The downside is that the income of the Russians may soon disappear. When the income from oil and gas largely disappears, they have relatively little, the question is whether the Chinese will take over 100%.But they've been smart, they have a huge war chest.

And about a choice between the Russians and the Americans. I even consider it an insult to think that the Europeans would choose the Russians. We share with the Americans a preference for liberal democracy and not for tyranny.

There are exceptions, however, the authoritarian populism in Europe unanimously opts for Putin's applause machine. That is also the case in the US. That becomes the real contradiction in the west, the authoritarian populists in Europe and the US form Putin's fifth column!

 

[Northener]

Northerner: I do look at things with an Economic viewpoint, not in insolation to principles of free elections and individual rights (Freedom of the Press, Speech, religion, etc) and I am no fan of Multinational Corporations that have to much influence over US foreign policy (Trade and Supply chains stretched all over the world, to dependent on China for too much stuff). But Economics does impact how one deals with other Nations. But let me look at what I can see happening. Let's assume Putin takes control over Ukraine, he then can control the distribution point of all the oil and gas that goes through Ukraine land based pipelines. He is not worried about what the USA, UK, and lets say even the Europeans further West think, but if he can drive a wedge between Germany and the rest of Europe by lets say shutting down the Ukrainian pipeline. What happens then? that is why I keep coming back to the over dependence on Russian Oil and Gas by too many NATO allies. You immediately have a conflict between your National Security Policy and your Economic policy which in this case impacts your foreign policy with Russia and Putin. Your NATO policy is designed to contain and fight him if he invades a NATO ally but your economy is tied to Putin and Russia providing all your energy needs. The whole thing is just irrational or in layperson terms, stupid and crazy.

Of course economics and trades plays an important part I live in a part of the world with the biggest port in the world (Rotterdam) and we are big exporteurs (for agriculture products nr 2 in the world with a stamp format country).

My essential point is that the last decennia especially within the neoliberals and technocrats which was a dominant modus in the West the touch and feel for history let alone moral dilemmas, Clinton: it's all about the economy stupid! , had gone.

Imo this is a part of underestimating of Putin's real intentions...

 

[Northener]

^^^
Ukrainian Cossacks also raided Turkish cities along the Black Sea coast in primitive boats. And were victorious!

Correct until recently people in my region had stories about the Cossacks in defeating Napoleon in 1812 when they also came to us. Some people even claim to descendant of them

I have heard that even in Paris the word bistro because back in those days the Cossacks wanted fast food on the table, bistro, bistro! But ok may be a myth....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bistro

 

[Tomenable]

Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk appealed to the International Red Cross urging the organization to help return the bodies of dead Russian occupants back to their homeland:

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status...&ref_url=https://pulsembed.eu/p2em/Z08K-shxz/