Politics Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

It doesn't, it is a threat to ensure the NORD2 is not impacted by the USA. Trump put sanctions on companies that worked on it and threatened sanctions against certain countries who allowed their companies to work on it. Trump was using major sanctions to stop it. Biden comes in and Germany, France, Netherlands, Belgium, etc, maybe even UK all asked for him to drop the sanctions and allow the project to be complete. Republicans in the Senate tried to keep the sanctions on but the Dems did not want go go against Biden and Biden dropped the sanctions (for now). My theory is that Putin will back off invading Ukraine once the NORD2 is pumping millions of barrels of Natural Gas a day into German facilities in the Baltic Sea and that Natural Gas gets distributed to the rest of Western Europe. According to data I read, as I noted above, about 1/3 of European Crude Oil and > 40% of its Natural Gas is supplied from Russia. About 40% of Russian Federal Government revenues comes from Oil and Gas. And invasion does not fit the NORD2 if the NORD2 gets fully up and running.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50875935
 
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I hope they don't go to war in the Urheimat.
The last thing we need is Europe going to war with itself.

Now we don't live in a world where only Europe exists, we have to be in a globalized world, and we need the least enemies possible.
 
The Russian and Ukraine situation boils down to economics and Oil and Gas. Russia gets 40% of its Revenues from the Oil and Gas Industry. China, which imports 55%-60% of its oil supply starting in 2016 got most its Oil from Russia, more than the Saudi's. Russian Oil around 2016 started to become more important for Europe, the Netherlands and Germany today are Russia's 2nd and 3rd biggest export markets. Europe as a whole gets about 1/3 of its Oil from Russia. The NORD2 pipeline which began in 2018 is now almost complete is going to further link Russian Oil and Gas and Western Europe. So until the NORD2 pipeline is fully operational, Ukraine is in terms of Russia's land base supply chain, and important geographic region for it to supply its Oil on and ever more dependent Western Europe on said Russian Oil.

For all the push back on Trump, the USA was a net exporter of Oil and Gas for the first time generations and Trump wanted Europe to buy its Oil and gas from us and he in fact threatened sanctions on any country working with Russia with the NORD2, which for a while stopped construction. Biden, in a nod to major European G5 allies, changed Trump's policy and gave full go ahead. Republicans in the US Senate last year tried to override Biden's change in Trump's policy to no avail. Putin to me is using Ukraine for leverage. He gets his NORD pipeline to pump oil and gas into Europe, you Western Europeans become more dependent on tat NORD2 pipeline and Russian Oil and Gas and Putin's land based supply chain routes through Ukraine are no longer as important. US Economist have predicted a Russian invasion of Ukraine, Oil hits > $100 a barrel and inflation is > 10%. This is Jimmy Carter era 2.0 with the Iranian crisis in 1979 sending Oil prices through the roof and inflation here in the USA having 2 consecutive years of double digit rates (79-80).

Ukraine will suffer regardless, once the NORD2 is fully operational, those jobs in the Oil and Gas supply chain in Ukraine will go away and the NORD2 will be the major supply of Russian Oil to Europe. So Russians on the starting end and Germans on the receiving end will benefit, jobs for workers and Russia will be able to increase its supply of Oil and Gas to Western Europe and they in turn will be more dependent on Russia.

The Azerbaijani pipeline through Turkey, Greece and Albania is already operational. Longer term, both Turkey's Black Sea gas finds and the Israeli/Lebanon/Cyprus gas fields should be connected to the already existing networks. LNG terminals on both sides of The Atlantic are pumping gas. Ukraine will be a millstone around Russia's neck.
 
The Azerbaijani pipeline through Turkey, Greece and Albania is already operational. Longer term, both Turkey's Black Sea gas finds and the Israeli/Lebanon/Cyprus gas fields should be connected to the already existing networks. LNG terminals on both sides of The Atlantic are pumping gas. Ukraine will be a millstone around Russia's neck.

Ok, does that one link up with Russia as the original point of distribution as well. Based on this supply chain map, only the yellow one is not controlled by Russia (is that the one you are referring to). But it to is integrated with the Russian supply chain. So based on this map, even with NORD2, there is no way Russia is going to let NATO get access to Ukraine. Look at the amount of Russian infrastructure there.

https://i1.wp.com/energyanalyst.co....1/Map-of-Russian-Pipelines.jpg?resize=696,645
 
Ok, does that one link up with Russia as the original point of distribution as well. Based on this supply chain map, only the yellow one is not controlled by Russia (is that the one you are referring to). But it to is integrated with the Russian supply chain. So based on this map, even with NORD2, there is no way Russia is going to let NATO get access to Ukraine. Look at the amount of Russian infrastructure there.

https://i1.wp.com/energyanalyst.co....1/Map-of-Russian-Pipelines.jpg?resize=696,645

The one that I am talking about originates in Azerbaijan, crosses Georgia, Turkey, Greece, Albania and then ends up in Italy where it links up with the rest of the European pipeline system. It has three main sections, the Southern Caucasus section (SCP), the TransAnatolian (TANAP) and the TransAdriatic (TAP). Overall all it is known as the Southern Gas Corridor. Now there was a TurkStream Pipeline that crossed the Black Sea from Russia and ended in Eastern Thrace and from then hooked up with Turkish, Greek and Bulgarian pipeline pipeline systems. BTW, the link does not work.
 
Hopefully this one works. That Turkstream Pipeline, doesn't it also end up in NE Italy. I didn't try to link that earlier one. There are lots of different maps out there, I just used Russian Oil and Gas supply chains and several popped up. One thing I notice is how many of these Lines go through Ukraine. It is akin to Airline hubs at major airports strategically located around a country. E.g., here in the US, Delta's main hub is Atlanta. You fly United you are likely going through Chicago-O'Hare.

https://www.rt.com/business/469674-russia-gas-pipelines-europe/

As I noted earlier, once Russia gets NORD2 running, that pipeline links 2 countries, Russia and Germany. Not that those other pipelines will not be as important, but the NORD2 is a big deal given Germany, and the Netherlands which it borders to its West, are the 2 biggest customers of Russian Oil and Gas. Those Ukraine land based pipelines are no longer as important for Russia relative to its largest 2 European customers, Germany and the Netherlands. Russia no longer has to pay Ukraine the transit fees to move Oil and Gas through the Ukraine, and those fees are material to the Ukrainian Government's budget. To be this Ukrainian crisis is a manufactured one by Putin to ensure NORD2 gets finished. There are not many countries that have to approve it, in fact USA media sources confirm that there is not much the USA can do to stop approval. If Germany approves it, it becomes Operational.
 
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The unjustified interference of the US during the previous administration re: NordStream 2 is the major reason we are where we are right now. The LNG terminals on both sides of The Atlantic are ready and already pumping LNG into the European pipeline system. So there is absolutely no reason for this charade to continue. In about 2-3 years Europe will be awash in natural gas.
 
The unjustified interference of the US during the previous administration re: NordStream 2 is the major reason we are where we are right now. The LNG terminals on both sides of The Atlantic are ready and already pumping LNG into the European pipeline system. So there is absolutely no reason for this charade to continue. In about 2-3 years Europe will be awash in natural gas.

Well I understand the US perhaps should have not gotten involve with NORD2. But as an American voter who is tired of all the neo-liberal (DEM) and neo-con (REP) foreign policy adventures where US kids get sent to fight wars abroad for what I don't know, this whole NORD2 and NATO arrangement where Germany as the 4th largest economy in the world still does not pay the NATO required 2% of GDP is a sticking point. As I noted it was Trump trying to stop the NORD2 which directly links Russian distribution terminals to German ports that can receive LNG. From an American perspective, it seems strange for the US to have 35K forces stationed in Germany, which is about 1/2 of the normal 70k stationed in Europe, Germany being the country with the most US personnel stationed in Europe, the other top countries are the UK, Italy )US Navy 6th fleet is based in Southern Italy near Naples) and Turkey. So who are these 35K US troops defending Germany from? Russia? Yet, Germany unilaterally contracts with Putin to build NORD2 so they can meet their Oil and Gas supplies as they move away from Coal and Nuclear power. I totally get the economics of it from Germany's perspective and Putin wanting to sell Oil and Gas to the European markets (4 of the 8 largest Economies in the world are in Europe, Germany 4, UK 5, France 7 and Italy 8). But in terms of NATO and military spending in terms of assets and personnel, why am I as a US tax payer paying for Germany's defense. They can afford to pay the NATO costs of keeping US forces at that level committed in Germany.
 
Well, as I predicted, Putin went into the areas adjacent to Russia which are heavy in Russian migrants, and which have "revolutionary" military forces, called terrorists by the Ukrainian government. Russia is going in to "keep the piece", and is going to recognize the areas as independent states.

Hitler justified the invasion of Czechoslovakia on the grounds that the Volksdeutsche were being abused, and Germany had to "protect" them. There was no mention of setting up puppet governments which can "invite" the invaders in so at least that is new.

Just read the vaunted sanctions our government is putting in place and not one of them applies to Russia directly, only to these puppet states. NATO published the same twaddle it's been publishing for months, so, basically, nothing to really say.

As I also predicted, the west won't do anything, and Putin will continue his holy mission of reconstituting the U.S.S.R.

The wall is now supposedly drawn with Poland and Hungary or perhaps first, the Baltic States, all of which countries are already part of NATO.

Europe just keeps repeating the same old patterns over and over again. Nothing ever really changes.
 
Well, as I predicted, Putin went into the areas adjacent to Russia which are heavy in Russian migrants, and which have "revolutionary" military forces, called terrorists by the Ukrainian government. Russia is going in to "keep the piece", and is going to recognize the areas as independent states.

Hitler justified the invasion of Czechoslovakia on the grounds that the Volksdeutsche were being abused, and Germany had to "protect" them. There was no mention of setting up puppet governments which can "invite" the invaders in so at least that is new.

Just read the vaunted sanctions our government is putting in place and not one of them applies to Russia directly, only to these puppet states. NATO published the same twaddle it's been publishing for months, so, basically, nothing to really say.

As I also predicted, the west won't do anything, and Putin will continue his holy mission of reconstituting the U.S.S.R.

The wall is now supposedly drawn with Poland and Hungary or perhaps first, the Baltic States, all of which countries are already part of NATO.

Europe just keeps repeating the same old patterns over and over again. Nothing ever really changes.

Angela: What you said is true and not only are there Russian migrants in Ukraine, almost 20% of its population are Russian. But the reality is it was the USA that pushed for NATO to expand into Ukraine. Interestingly, France and Germany were always opposed to it. And I think their instincts on this one turned out to be correct.

Poland and Hungary, according to this NPR article was not an issue with Russia but Ukraine has been a sticking point for years. Based on what I got from this NPR article, I suspect that France and Germany are not going to push for a confrontation with Russia over Ukraine. So why should the USA do it. If all the European countries in NATO see Putin's move into Ukraine as a threat, they need to take the lead on this one, not the USA.

Both Bill Clinton and George Bush 2 pushed for more Eastward expansion of NATO towards Russia. Looking at the map in the link, While Finland and its fellow Nordic neighbor Sweden have not petitioned for NATO membership, they have kept the door open and I think they have assurances that Norway and Denmark (both charter NATO members) would lobby for the West to come to their aide if Russia moves towards them. But if Finland and Sweden were in NATO, then only Belarus and Ukraine would be a buffer area for Russia in Eastern Europe and Georgia between Turkey and Russia in the Caucuses.



https://www.npr.org/2022/01/29/1076193616/ukraine-crisis-russia-history-nato-expansion

As for Poland, it does seem that is a line as the USA as part of a NATO contingent has sent 5.7K troops on a rotation basis there. The Baltic States have more NATO troops with some USA forces in Lithuania and Romania. Just over 7K of the 12K USA/NATO combined forces are American. I would like to know what European countries have committed their own troops to the NATO contingent in those areas?

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/10/europe/nato-troops-eastern-europe-map-intl-cmd/index.html
 
Putin should study a little bit of end day Roman Republic history to see what happens when the self interests of a tyrant are in conflict with the other elites.
 
Well, as I predicted, Putin went into the areas adjacent to Russia which are heavy in Russian migrants, and which have "revolutionary" military forces, called terrorists by the Ukrainian government. Russia is going in to "keep the piece", and is going to recognize the areas as independent states.

Hitler justified the invasion of Czechoslovakia on the grounds that the Volksdeutsche were being abused, and Germany had to "protect" them. There was no mention of setting up puppet governments which can "invite" the invaders in so at least that is new.

Just read the vaunted sanctions our government is putting in place and not one of them applies to Russia directly, only to these puppet states. NATO published the same twaddle it's been publishing for months, so, basically, nothing to really say.

As I also predicted, the west won't do anything, and Putin will continue his holy mission of reconstituting the U.S.S.R.

The wall is now supposedly drawn with Poland and Hungary or perhaps first, the Baltic States, all of which countries are already part of NATO.

Europe just keeps repeating the same old patterns over and over again. Nothing ever really changes.

You better could say we are 'drawn back' in nationalistic and historical reasoning. In a language the West (beside the authoritarian-populistic forces supported by the Kremlin!) don't speak any longer....it's way from pragmatic, economic, technocratic reasoning.

Putin is not a broker like Trump....indeed: 'his holy mission of reconstituting the U.S.S.R' I would say the restoration of Czarist Russia!

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181

So the answer is not pragmatic or deal making. The answer must be that free, democratic, world must draw a red line now.

Russia beneath 1000 km of Berlin is not a tempting thought.
 
Angela: What you said is true and not only are there Russian migrants in Ukraine, almost 20% of its population are Russian. But the reality is it was the USA that pushed for NATO to expand into Ukraine. Interestingly, France and Germany were always opposed to it. And I think their instincts on this one turned out to be correct.

Poland and Hungary, according to this NPR article was not an issue with Russia but Ukraine has been a sticking point for years. Based on what I got from this NPR article, I suspect that France and Germany are not going to push for a confrontation with Russia over Ukraine. So why should the USA do it. If all the European countries in NATO see Putin's move into Ukraine as a threat, they need to take the lead on this one, not the USA.

Both Bill Clinton and George Bush 2 pushed for more Eastward expansion of NATO towards Russia. Looking at the map in the link, While Finland and its fellow Nordic neighbor Sweden have not petitioned for NATO membership, they have kept the door open and I think they have assurances that Norway and Denmark (both charter NATO members) would lobby for the West to come to their aide if Russia moves towards them. But if Finland and Sweden were in NATO, then only Belarus and Ukraine would be a buffer area for Russia in Eastern Europe and Georgia between Turkey and Russia in the Caucuses.



https://www.npr.org/2022/01/29/1076193616/ukraine-crisis-russia-history-nato-expansion

As for Poland, it does seem that is a line as the USA as part of a NATO contingent has sent 5.7K troops on a rotation basis there. The Baltic States have more NATO troops with some USA forces in Lithuania and Romania. Just over 7K of the 12K USA/NATO combined forces are American. I would like to know what European countries have committed their own troops to the NATO contingent in those areas?

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/10/europe/nato-troops-eastern-europe-map-intl-cmd/index.html

Beside the current events, Putin puts this on the tabel:

First of all, I would like to emphasize that the wall that has emerged in recent years between Russia and Ukraine, between the parts of what is essentially the same historical and spiritual space, to my mind is our great common misfortune and tragedy. These are, first and foremost, the consequences of our own mistakes made at different periods of time. But these are also the result of deliberate efforts by those forces that have always sought to undermine our unity. The formula they apply has been known from time immemorial – divide and rule. There is nothing new here. Hence the attempts to play on the ”national question“ and sow discord among people, the overarching goal being to divide and then to pit the parts of a single people against one another.


To have a better understanding of the present and look into the future, we need to turn to history. Certainly, it is impossible to cover in this article all the developments that have taken place over more than a thousand years. But I will focus on the key, pivotal moments that are important for us to remember, both in Russia and Ukraine.

He is playing the nationalistic historic card.....that needs imo on an ideological level a response, imo one in which liberal political democratic values are a key issue:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Open_Society_and_Its_Enemies

 
Northerner: He is a Nationalist, I agree. But you don't seem to want to deal with that France and Germany have been on record for 30 years that NATO and Ukraine is not in what they see the best interest of the EU (which they mean themselves) and it certainly is not in my view the interest of the USA to put US forces in Ukraine. Russia is already almost totally bordered by NATO aligned countries. I again am no fan of Putin. Let me make that clear. But when you keep clamoring for a "line in the sand" to thwart Putin, I as I said over and over again, don't think the USA needs to have its young people be the one enforcing that line in the sand. Can we assist via NATO yes, air support via land based aircraft or US carrier based, but the infantry and armored divisions should be European. Yet, as that CNN article I linked indicates, of the 12K USA/NATO personnel in Eastern Europe, 7K are from the USA, 5K from NATO European countries. However, I have been trying to find out which countries from Europe have forces as part of that 5K NATO contingent. I can't find out. So perhaps you can find some European Media sources and provide that for me. Does your own country have forces there? What about Germany? France?
 
Northerner: He is a Nationalist, I agree. But you don't seem to want to deal with that France and Germany have been on record for 30 years that NATO and Ukraine is not in what they see the best interest of the EU (which they mean themselves) and it certainly is not in my view the interest of the USA to put US forces in Ukraine. Russia is already almost totally bordered by NATO aligned countries. I again am no fan of Putin. Let me make that clear. But when you keep clamoring for a "line in the sand" to thwart Putin, I as I said over and over again, don't think the USA needs to have its young people be the one enforcing that line in the sand. Can we assist via NATO yes, air support via land based aircraft or US carrier based, but the infantry and armored divisions should be European. Yet, as that CNN article I linked indicates, of the 12K USA/NATO personnel in Eastern Europe, 7K are from the USA, 5K from NATO European countries. However, I have been trying to find out which countries from Europe have forces as part of that 5K NATO contingent. I can't find out. So perhaps you can find some European Media sources and provide that for me. Does your own country have forces there? What about Germany? France?

Ukraine has sovereignty so that's not up to Russia. For Putin and Dugin Kiev this is the cradle of Rus so I doubt if they stop in the eastern part. So support and provide the Ukranians to defend themselves.

And more general I'm talking about the ideological challenge Putin/Dugin is 'offering' the West....that is imo more in the line of Lévy!
 
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Ukraine has sovereignty so that's not up to Russia. For Putin and Dugin Kiev is de cradle of Rus so I doubt if they stop in the eastern part. So support and provide the Ukranians to defend themselves.

And more general I'm talking about the ideological challenge Putin/Dugin is 'offering' the West....that is imo more in the line of Lévy!


I never said Ukraine does not have it. So we are now talking about an ideological line in the sand. Well He is not the type of leader I would want to live under. So we are in agreement about the ideological line in the sand. I am darn near an absolutist on free speech and love the Right as an American that I think Joe Biden is a stupid SOB. Of course that could get you sent to Siberia if you tried that with Putin. So again, not a fan of Putin's anti individual liberty and freedom ideology.
 
Angela: What you said is true and not only are there Russian migrants in Ukraine, almost 20% of its population are Russian. But the reality is it was the USA that pushed for NATO to expand into Ukraine. Interestingly, France and Germany were always opposed to it. And I think their instincts on this one turned out to be correct.

Poland and Hungary, according to this NPR article was not an issue with Russia but Ukraine has been a sticking point for years. Based on what I got from this NPR article, I suspect that France and Germany are not going to push for a confrontation with Russia over Ukraine. So why should the USA do it. If all the European countries in NATO see Putin's move into Ukraine as a threat, they need to take the lead on this one, not the USA.

Both Bill Clinton and George Bush 2 pushed for more Eastward expansion of NATO towards Russia. Looking at the map in the link, While Finland and its fellow Nordic neighbor Sweden have not petitioned for NATO membership, they have kept the door open and I think they have assurances that Norway and Denmark (both charter NATO members) would lobby for the West to come to their aide if Russia moves towards them. But if Finland and Sweden were in NATO, then only Belarus and Ukraine would be a buffer area for Russia in Eastern Europe and Georgia between Turkey and Russia in the Caucuses.



https://www.npr.org/2022/01/29/1076193616/ukraine-crisis-russia-history-nato-expansion

As for Poland, it does seem that is a line as the USA as part of a NATO contingent has sent 5.7K troops on a rotation basis there. The Baltic States have more NATO troops with some USA forces in Lithuania and Romania. Just over 7K of the 12K USA/NATO combined forces are American. I would like to know what European countries have committed their own troops to the NATO contingent in those areas?

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/10/europe/nato-troops-eastern-europe-map-intl-cmd/index.html

I completely agree that the U.S. should not be doing the heavy lifting as far as NATO is concerned. It's incredible that we've put up with this crap for decades. Same goes for the U.N. for that matter, a useless organization if ever there was one.

This guy was head of the KGB; he made a career of lying, spying on the west, and oppressing his own people. I just think that taking Putin's word for "anything" is completely unwarranted. We have abundant examples from history of the excuses proffered for land grabs. It's always either completely untrue or only part of the reason. Jn the end, what motivates tyrants is power. So, to take his word that Ukraine is all he wants because of their "unity" is, imo, as naive as it was to believe that Hitler would stop with Czechoslovakia.

At some point, Europe will have to face Russia over the Baltic States, then probably, once again, Poland. They had better be prepared, because if they let those countries go, the road to the west is wide open, and no, the U.S. should not take the lead. It's time for us to stop being Europe's savior.

At least be full participants in your own defense and stop just mouthing platitudes.
 
I completely agree that the U.S. should not be doing the heavy lifting as far as NATO is concerned. It's incredible that we've put up with this crap for decades. Same goes for the U.N. for that matter, a useless organization if ever there was one.

This guy was head of the KGB; he made a career of lying, spying on the west, and oppressing his own people. I just think that taking Putin's word for "anything" is completely unwarranted. We have abundant examples from history of the excuses proffered for land grabs. It's always either completely untrue or only part of the reason. Jn the end, what motivates tyrants is power. So, to take his word that Ukraine is all he wants because of their "unity" is, imo, as naive as it was to believe that Hitler would stop with Czechoslovakia.

At some point, Europe will have to face Russia over the Baltic States, then probably, once again, Poland. They had better be prepared, because if they let those countries go, the road to the west is wide open, and no, the U.S. should not take the lead. It's time for us to stop being Europe's savior.

At least be full participants in your own defense and stop just mouthing platitudes.

US already did all kinds of effort in Ukraine! And Putin is not only trying to destabilize Europe but also the US.....so Europe and US are interacted.....

And I guess Putin could be overstretching it. I don't think in the long run Russia can control the Ukraine.
 
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I completely agree that the U.S. should not be doing the heavy lifting as far as NATO is concerned. It's incredible that we've put up with this crap for decades.

No, the U.S. should not take the lead. It's time for us to stop being Europe's savior.
I always wonder why someone is always stating leave the European or the crap alone, should have been done for decades. And at the same time spend hours and hours on EUPEDIA, spell again EUPEDIA and calls herself still ethnic Italian as long as I know part of Europe the EU the NATO etc. I can't cope that....

And on top of that the Russians are also influencing the USA too. But no the thoughts are in and about Europe but the wallet is obviously closed imo indeed a grocery mentality, like good old- I want my money back- Maggie Thatcher.

Hey Angela call on the US to join forces to battle against authoritarian-populism...this affects in the end NY and bella Italia too.....
 
Mind you for the strict economic minds: In 2019, the US imported 186 billion euros worth of services from the EU while exporting 249 billion euros to the EU.
So you are earning money here. So also a matter of self interrest ;)
 

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