That all of the Carpathian block cremation groups are highly likely to be very EEF shifted is by now pretty obvious thing, since not just the ancient DNA we already have says so, but all the abstracts on the upcoming samples for Bronze and Iron Age Transylvania. Therefore if Transylvania was Balkan-like and EEF-rich from the Bronze to the Iron Age, so was Gáva.
The only WHG-input seem to have come from the mix of Piliny into Kyjatice with Gáva-related groups in the West, this includes the borderzone early and might have affected Mezocsat and Vekerzug to some degree. This has to be seen.
As for E-BY5022: By now it was present in nearly all the groups associated with ZPC/Psenichevo/South Thracians, also deeper inland. And we also find it further to the West, in the Roman-Avar period. Yet all these samples are from a time when Z5017/Z5018 was already truly huge, therefore if it would have been in E-BY5022/South Balkan territories, it should pop up all around, yet it does not.
The biggest exception remaining are the Z5017 samples from Southern Italy, from Himera. We therefore have still primarily these earlier samples of relevance:
- Post-Psenichevo from South Thrace (Aegean-like)
- Thracian Hallstatt from the lower Danube (already more Northern, but a mixed group probably)
- Vekerzug sample from Chotin (mostly Balkan-like/mixed itself and likely associated with a couple of Balkan-like females of the site, so no rare outlier)
- Himera mercenaries (2 are central-North Balkan-like, one is Caucasian like with a Z-93 individual of the same kind)
And these very early individuals are crucial, to evaluate from which genetic background they all came from. First off, all of them are essentially Balkan-like, so this holds up from Slovakia to South Italy, from the Black Sea to Hungary.
But they are not Balkan-like in the same way, which implies there was regional diversity within the Daco-Thracian, E-V13 dominated populations early on.
And again, especially for the early samples, the main split is along the lines of Psenichevo-related groups (most Aegean) vs. Tisza groups (most Northern shifted). This might, in the end, turn out to be a cline within the Daco-Thracians, which resulted from varying degrees of admixture with a variety of neighbouring people.
The most likely Basarabi-profile is what we see in the Himera-individuals, that to me is likely to represent the core/standard. If looking, once more, at who the two Himera individuals are closest to in the current ancient DNA record, some samples stick out:
Distance to: ITA_Sicily_Himera_480BCE_2:I10946
0.02422597 Czech_IA_LaTene:I17139
0.03170353 Hungary_EarlyAvar:MS-43.SG
0.03179566 Montenegro_MLBA:I13172
0.03196842 Croatia_Scitarjevo_Roman.SG:R3659.SG
0.03372487 Italy_Tuscany_Grosseto_Etruscan:CSN006
0.03390332 Macedonia_IA:I10385
0.03404008 Germany_EarlyMedieval_o1.SG:NW54_noUDG.SG
0.03406660 Serbia_BA_Maros:I17912
0.03420823 Hungary_LaTene:I18493
0.03430493 Slovenia_EIA:I22940
0.03461423 Croatia_MBA_Cetina:I18745
0.03480842 Hungary_EarlyAvar:MS-45.SG
0.03488240 Hungary_EIA_Prescythian_Mezocsat:I11683
0.03504911 Serbia_Mokrin_EBA_Maros_oAegean.SG:MOK31.SG
0.03535030 Croatia_MBA:I5074
0.03554595 Montenegro_MLBA:I13169
0.03578483 Croatia_EIA:I23996
0.03598303 Croatia_EIA:I24639
0.03627502 Hungary_LaTene:I18491
0.03638531 Hungary_EarlyAvar:MM-131.SG
0.03673441 Italy_IA_Republic_o.SG:R1.SG
0.03689841 Croatia_MLBA:I18737
0.03733387 Croatia_Zadar_Roman.SG:R3745.SG
0.03750394 Macedonia_Classical_Hellenistic:I10390
0.03753030 Croatia_MLBA:I18415
0.03769702 Croatia_MBA_Cetina:I18746
0.03805035 Germany_EMedieval_Alemanic_SEurope:NIEcap3b
0.03815768 Croatia_BA:I18712
0.03816215 Italy_TarquiniaMonterozzi_IA.SG:R10359.SG
0.03822128 Croatia_MBA:I4331
Distance to: ITA_Sicily_Himera_480BCE_2:I10950
0.02762275 Hungary_LaTene:I18493
0.02919892 Serbia_BA_Maros:I23209
0.03016022 Croatia_Popova_CA.SG

OP39_noUDG.SG
0.03074397 Serbia_BA_Maros:I17912
0.03099153 Slovenia_Emona_Roman.SG:R10467.SG
0.03126834 Hungary_LateAvar:SZKT-265.SG
0.03132543 Hungary_EBA_Protonagyrev:I7043
0.03153367 Slovakia_IA_Vekerzug:I11721
0.03189381 Hungary_IA_LaTene:I18528
0.03206470 Hungary_MidAvar:SZM-38.SG
0.03211442 Czech_LBA_Knoviz_o3:I13794
0.03219674 Croatia_MBA:I5080
0.03225646 Montenegro_MLBA:I13169
0.03228628 Hungary_LateAvar:ARK-38.SG
0.03239793 Croatia_BA:I18748
0.03249283 Czech_BellBeaker_oAnatolia1

RU001
0.03257974 Hungary_IA_LaTene:I18834
0.03261968 Hungary_IA_LaTene:I18529
0.03266257 Albania_BA_IA:I14690
0.03272750 Hungary_IA_Syrmian_SremGroup:I18259
0.03288711 Serbia_Mokrin_EBA_Maros:I16803
0.03299303 Hungary_Langobard_o2:SZ28
0.03319737 Croatia_MBA_Cetina:I11843
0.03323676 Serbia_Mokrin_EBA_Maros_oAegean.SG:MOK31.SG
0.03389971 Hungary_LaTene:I18491
0.03405202 Serbia_Mokrin_EBA_Maros.SG:MOK13.SG
0.03408197 Croatia_MBA:I4331
0.03409156 Serbia_Mokrin_EBA_Maros.SG:MOK27.SG
0.03458858 Montenegro_MLBA:I13168
0.03468831 Montenegro_MLBA:I13775
They are obviously more West-Central Balkan by autosomals, but what I find most interesting to highlight is that they can be put close to groups which could work as a proxy for Gáva/Belegis II-Gáva, or their mixed descendents in the Central Balkans. Especially one sample pops for both of them, and that is
Serbia_Mokrin_EBA_Maros_oAegean.SG:MOK31.SG
Therefore an outlier in the Aegean direction from Maros/Mokrin. We discussed that before. I made a PCA to show were they plot together with the samples which are most important for the debate - currently:
Note that these Mokrin "Aegean outliers" form a big main cluster for the Thracian/E-V13 group which includes Vekerzug East, Himera mercenaries and one individual from Mezocsat, presumably an unmixed Gáva female.
Note also, that a Thracian Hallstatt individual too is fully in this cluster.
The only group outside of it are the South Thracian/post-Psenichevo individuals and two South shifted individuals from Vekerzug.
Both the South shifted Vekerzug females (2) and the Thracian Hallstatt group form kind of a bridge towards this main North Thracian cluster.
What's amazing about this, is, that the "Aegean outlier" represent the locals in the East Carpathian region, and its shows that this exact profile persisted through the age from the time of Maros well into the Roman era.
Here we have it, the local East Carpathian element right in front of our eyes and it kind of seeped into the Maros group with two outliers.
All the other samples from LBA Hungary, Vekerzug etc. which might be considered relevant for the North Thracian/Gáva debate are best explained by being shifted towards Kyjatice. And we know that Kyjatice was pushed East/North East and mixed with Gáva people in the West, in Mezocsat and some groups of Vekerzug.
The Mezocsat females can be fully explained by Gáva (similar to Himera, simalar to Aegean Mokrin outliers) mixing with incoming Kyjatice people, which had more ancestry from the Encrusted Pottery-related block and Füzesabony.
The Mezocsat individuals are no big mystery if looking at it from this perspective, there is no other admixture needed to explain them - note all regulars from Mezocsat can be roughly modelled as half Himera/Mokrin "Aegean" plus Kyjatice:
There is only one exception here, plus one outlier. And that's because these outliers have more exotic/high WHG/high steppe ancestries. They are completely out of the range of the HUN_LBA/Mezocsat/Vekerzug main groups range.
But you can clearly see, that Mezocsat is what we can expect: A mix of Gáva (like Mokrin "Aegean"/Himera) plus Kyjatice. And that's exactly what the archaeological record tells us! This is 100 % meeting the expectations, because the Mezocsat people, which were locals under Cimmerian rule, were mixed up Gáva-Kyjatice people.
And just like on the PCA, individual I11683 sticks out as having no Kyjatice admixture, but being kind of "pure" Mokrin/Aegean/Himera. So this is, highly likely, an unmixed Gáva individual.
These are the closest matches for this Gáva-survivor in Mezocsat:
Distance to: Hungary_EIA_Prescythian_Mezocsat:I11683
0.02462053 Croatia_MBA:I5074
0.02539891 Montenegro_MLBA:I13169
0.02589414 Hungary_LaTene:I18493
0.02652514 France_Sarrebourg_LateAntiquity_oLevant.SG:R11556.SG
0.02670600 Montenegro_MLBA:I13172
0.02696041 Italy_TarquiniaMonterozzi_IA.SG:R10343.SG
0.02740538 Croatia_MBA_Cetina:I18747
0.02766263 Hungary_LaTene:I18491
0.02793518 Croatia_EIA:I23996
0.02811813 Hungary_Conqueror_Commoner:HMSZ-5.SG
0.02831321 Croatia_MBA:I5080
0.02833138 Macedonia_Classical_Hellenistic:I10390
0.02862336 Serbia_Mokrin_EBA_Maros_oAegean.SG:MOK31.SG
0.02910041 Slovenia_Emona_Roman.SG:R10467.SG
0.02927427 Croatia_SisakPogorelec_Roman.SG:R2040.SG
0.02934523 Albania_BA_IA:I14690
0.02945680 Italy_IA_Republic_o.SG:R1.SG
0.02952031 Italy_LA_o1CentralEuropean.SG:R33.SG
0.03004827 Greece_Logkas_MBA.SG:Log02.SG
0.03006793 Croatia_EIA:I24639
0.03036862 Slovenia_EIA:I22940
0.03071195 Hungary_EarlyAvar:MS-45.SG
0.03074283 Hungary_LateAvar:HH-10.SG
0.03092527 Croatia_MBA_Cetina:I18746
0.03101655 Croatia_BA:I18712
0.03113671 Croatia_MBA_Cetina:I18745
0.03142192 Italy_IA_Republic.SG:R474.SG
0.03146378 Serbia_Mokrin_EBA_Maros_oAegean.SG:MOK17A.SG
0.03155335 Croatia_Zadar_Roman.SG:R3747.SG
0.03159369 Croatia_EIA:I23904
It has both Mokrin "Aegean" samples as its top 30 distance samples! That is to say vs. all the available samples in the current ancient DNA record. This is very, very telling.
And it also shows that there was no fundamental difference between the East Carpathian cremation group and the West Balkan Illyrians autosomally, they both descend from Vucedol-Cotofeni, this is what I excect them to look like.
I think that Cotofeni/Wietenberg/Suciu de Sus/Gáva are all likely to plot, if unmixed, close to these "Aegean outlier" from Mokrin. It is very remarkable that this Gáva female from Mezocsat doesn't have close distances to other Maros/Mokrin samples. She is more Southern than those, more "Balkan-like", just like all the abstracts tell us about the Transylvanian Bronze Age into Iron Age populations.