Politics Future of Greece

Greeks monetary future:

  • Greeks will stay in Eurozone

    Votes: 13 52.0%

  • Greek will go back to Drachma

    Votes: 12 48.0%
  • Total voters
    25
Angela said:
As numerous economists have pointed out, part of the debt should be written off. It's what's been done in the past and it's what makes the most sense. Most of the financial types I know propose that. They also think that austerity measures that are so stringent that they throw a country into a recession don't make any sense. This needs, and needed, a balanced approach. All this crew in Greece have proposed is a continuation of the same old system they've always had. I don't think Tsipras et al have any clue what on earth they're doing. It's as if we had elected the "Occupy Wall Street" crowd to run the country. I had to pass their encampment everyday, and they couldn't even organize toilets for themselves.

However, the rigidity and shortsightedness of thinking of Merkel and co. is beginning to rattle the financial people here. She's playing with fire. Greece's economy is too small to bring the world economy crashing down, but they think she's mistaken if she believes this won't effect the rest of Europe. If nothing else it's exposed the flaws in the Eurosystem, and more countries could eventually follow suit.

Has anyone else used the phrase "loony left"? Maybe I should copyright it if no one else has used it; in addition to being so descriptive, it has such a nice "ring" to it. I just love alliteration:). Someone could do a political cartoon of their offices and title it "The Loony Bin"!
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Merkel has no choice.
Asking more money and leaving the old system in Greece intact is a recipe for more diseaster to come.
This is blackmail.
If you give in to this game, it won't last long before Portugal, Spain and even Italy will start to derail again.
Besides, Greek minimum wages and pensions are higher than in Eastern Europe, and Eastern European taxpayer would have to pay their share in the deal.
It's immoral.
If you go along in this game, it is the end of the Euro in the long run.

Obama is urging for a solution, but I don't think he won't risk American taxpayers money to give Greece a credit.
I think that says it all.
 
bicicleur said:
who is to blaim that the corruption is still there?
EU cannot dismantle corruption in Greece, it is the Greeks who have to do this, but they fail
that is how Greece became a bottomless pit without any perspective on recovery

if Obama wants to keep Greece in EU, I propose he uses some US taxmoney to grant Greece a loan

the longer this story lasts, the less options there will be left for Greece
Click to expand...

+1 by me
another one who also understand and see behind or far,

although i can not answer to your question,
but our first fear here is not Grexit, we are not afraid Schauble,
is a war, and second is civil war or junda.
 
bicicleur said:
Merkel has no choice.
Asking more money and leaving the old system in Greece intact is a recipe for more diseaster to come.
This is blackmail.
If you give in to this game, it won't last long before Portugal, Spain and even Italy will start to derail again.
Besides, Greek minimum wages and pensions are higher than in Eastern Europe, and Eastern European taxpayer would have to pay their share in the deal.
It's immoral.
If you go along in this game, it is the end of the Euro in the long run.

Obama is urging for a solution, but I don't think he won't risk American taxpayers money to give Greece a credit.
I think that says it all.
Click to expand...

Amen to all that.
 
LeBrok said:
There are interesting implications in case Greece is kicked out. If Greece do well economically by themselves, though with limited credits and no production economy it will be almost impossible, this can encourage others to drop of the burden of debt, go bankrupt and secede. However, if they are stuck in slow economic growth, trade barriers, traveling and working visas to EU, lower standard of living, this will work as a deterrent and keep all in EU. This all might need 5 year window to be clear to others after Greek secession. If Greece leaves now, I don't think any other would follow yet. It will start wait and see game.
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I agree with your analysis. It would be different from for example Iceland. They dropped the burden of debt after a brief dispute with Britain and the Netherlands and a brief episode of chaos. They made a referendum like "do we wanna pay the debt?". The crowd answered "NO!", and they got away with it. The old elite is gone too as a side effect. I'm not up-to-date, but I heard that Iceland still struggles somewhat, but there is a future now. Usually it isn't so easy for a country to default like Iceland.
If Greece leaves the EURO, cuts debt, or whatever, it will not lose it's problems soon I think. Especially I think cutting debt without leaving the EURO is close to meaningless, because they still have to fight the same hopeless fight against the big old economies, where the only remaining economy is flourishing corruption. The EURO is like a centrifugal force (Latin Monetary Union crashed for the same reason).
 
bicicleur said:
who is to blaim that the corruption is still there?
Click to expand...

To blame are primarily those who promised that it would miraculously disappear.
Corruption in Greece is created by greeks of course, but it is well known and ages old. And from the Latin monetary union we know that the EURO can not work like this anyway, but I will not go that far for now. The difficulty to compete inside EURO by normal economy makes corruption more attractive, or even necessary to avoid direct competition. You know how politicians are.

It is like giving your credit card to a known alcoholic, and then after two years being surprised that he comes back as an indebted alcoholic. Are you then not to blame for your irresponsibility?
In case of EURO it is actually much worse, because it is tax payer's money whom is put on risk. And to make things even worse, it is being spent for delaying filing of insolvency. In civil right one would go to jail.

EU cannot dismantle corruption in Greece, it is the Greeks who have to do this, but they fail
that is how Greece became a bottomless pit without any perspective on recovery
Click to expand...

What a surprise! (sorry for sarcasm, no offense)

I believe you are overestimating Tsipras' power, and underestimating greek elites in the background, who are among the richest in the world. Then there are the ordinary voters. Tsipras seems to be under immense pressure too. But that's just my speculation.

if Obama wants to keep Greece in EU, I propose he uses some US taxmoney to grant Greece a loan

the longer this story lasts, the less options there will be left for Greece
Click to expand...

Schäuble gave an appropriate answer already. Things are getting interesting.
 
I just went to twitter. Who knows how representative this is of public opinion, though...

"Angela Merkel has done more today to destroy the European project than all euroskeptic right-wing parties combined.."

Paul Krugman (I should add that I'm not normally a fan of his)
"Meanwhile In Scotia ‏@MeanwhileScotia 1h1 hour ago Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman calls it... #ThisIsACoup


"Suppose you consider Tsipras an incompetent twerp. Suppose you dearly want to see Syriza out of power. Suppose, even, that you welcome the prospect of pushing those annoying Greeks out of the euro.

Even if all of that is true, this Eurogroup list of demands is madness. The trending hashtag ThisIsACoup is exactly right. This goes beyond harsh into pure vindictiveness, complete destruction of national sovereignty, and no hope of relief. It is, presumably, meant to be an offer Greece can’t accept; but even so, it’s a grotesque betrayal of everything the European project was supposed to stand for.
Can anything pull Europe back from the brink? Word is that Mario Draghi is trying to reintroduce some sanity, that Hollande is finally showing a bit of the pushback against German morality-play economics that he so signally failed to supply in the past. But much of the damage has already been done. Who will ever trust Germany’s good intentions after this?
In a way, the economics have almost become secondary. But still, let’s be clear: what we’ve learned these past couple of weeks is that being a member of the eurozone means that the creditors can destroy your economy if you step out of line. This has no bearing at all on the underlying economics of austerity. It’s as true as ever that imposing harsh austerity without debt relief is a doomed policy no matter how willing the country is to accept suffering. And this in turn means that even a complete Greek capitulation would be a dead end.
Can Greece pull off a successful exit? Will Germany try to block a recovery? (Sorry, but that’s the kind of thing we must now ask.)
The European project — a project I have always praised and supported — has just been dealt a terrible, perhaps fatal blow. And whatever you think of Syriza, or Greece, it wasn’t the Greeks who did it."


"£50bn Greek assets to be handed to fund controlled by Schauble via KfW This is a criminal suggestion. He should be arrested."

"You should have seen Schauble's first draft: "Place the 50bn euros in a black bag and throw it over the bridge at midnight"

"My guess is that Merkel and the troika have inadvertently just primed the detonator for a #Brexit in 2017".



I should add that these are comments from English speaking countries.
 
ElHorsto said:
I agree with your analysis. It would be different from for example Iceland. They dropped the burden of debt after a brief dispute with Britain and the Netherlands and a brief episode of chaos. They made a referendum like "do we wanna pay the debt?". The crowd answered "NO!", and they got away with it. The old elite is gone too as a side effect. I'm not up-to-date, but I heard that Iceland still struggles somewhat, but there is a future now. Usually it isn't so easy for a country to default like Iceland.
Click to expand...
It is not that easy to go totally bankrupt by a country and start afresh. Usually there is some debt remaining, and some debt servicing put on hold. At least it gives countries some breathing room and helps economy recover. In case of Iceland there is about 80% of GDP debt left, or over 200% when debt obligations of defaulted banks are added. Here is a nice article about their current situation.
Island froze billions of foreign capital deposits in their banks and regulates exchange rate of Krona. Now they are afraid to lift these artificial instruments, or the capital will fly away and Krona deflate farther.
There are also unclear consequences of lawsuits in courts around the globe of institutions trying to recover lost defaulted founds, and going to continue for decades to come.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/34ab12fc-0d9b-11e4-815f-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3fj7ZfWyd

One of worst consequences for Greeks going bankrupt will be lose of working privileges in EU. How many Greeks works abroad, a million?
 
Yetos said:
Tottaly wrong,
Pythia plan 4
Kissinger's plans stoped by a great EU dreamer,
search who to understand, EUgame of centralization

TRY TO UNDERSTAND IT,
GREECE IS THE BAIT
VICTIM IS ELSEWHERE

there can not be a 5 year out
is either out, either in,
Click to expand...

Yetos, what is your solution for Greece? What would you do?
 
looks like the Greeks are presented a tough choice
accept EU mandate over Greece and a 87 billion € lifeline or drawn
what drawn means nobody realizes yet, but the quelines in front of the 60 € cash machines last few days in Greece were an apetizer

and Tsipras took a U-turn
he plays games, but he is smart
I wonder whether he'll survive
 
I dont know why people keep saying the Greeks the Greeks the Greeks.The Syriza party of Tsipras won 36% of the Greek vote and not 100. So what ALL the Greeks have to do with it?. People who vote do not get crash courses on Economics and can easily vote on vague promises such as a vow to stop all austerity measures, which sounds like sweet music to the less informed men and women who have a right to vote as much as any professional. Tsipras looked bright and trust worthy and probably no one asked but 'how would you do that sir?' and driven by blind faith. But the proof of the pudding is in the eating. Now we see the consequences.

Now the Syriza honeymoon is over as the Syriza miracle did not happen, and the stubborn negotiations right up to the wire have been going on for just over 5 months, (its not like there was no time) But then Drama will not be Drama without crescendos and being saved in the last minute. It will kill its hollywood type of effect and has no meaning if the Adrenalin does not flow. Also a non sense referendum with a result that brought more hardship to the Greek people.

The winners are some of the opposition groups, that if they were voted in the first place none of this would have happened. On the other hand this will serve a lesson to all the same minded people in other countries that started raffling their feathers. It seems like election time is close, even if like referenda they do come with a financial cost that could be well spent somewhere else.
 
bicicleur said:
and Tsipras took a U-turn
he plays games, but he is smart
I wonder whether he'll survive
Click to expand...

He fought till the end, causing an earthquake. The U-turn was imposed on him. Now he seems to have become a convert. Converts do happen but no one knows if its real and that's the main issue. He should not be there anymore. He tried his luck and failed. Time for a new Chapter.
 
"But of course, the ultimatum Greece now faces also demonstrates the disregard of the euro system for any right to national sovereignty Greece may have as a member of the monetary union. It exposes the European project as a power grab by unelected elites at the European Commission and at the European Central Bank. For the first time ever, the whole world is realizing that not only does the European Union require a gradual fading away of national sovereignty as economic harmonization advances, it also involves an abrupt, violent, and complete loss of national sovereignty on the occasion that a country’s economy stumbles and requires assistance."

https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/07/12/the-ugly-heart-of-the-european-project-greece-grexit-germany
 
Kardu said:
..... on the occasion that a country’s economy stumbles and requires assistance."

https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/07/12/the-ugly-heart-of-the-european-project-greece-grexit-germany
Click to expand...

assistance? 3 bailouts in 5 years? to a country that besides was eligible to other billions (like some others EU member states) to upgrade the infrastructure to reach 1st world level. This is the ugly heart of the European project this opinion is talking about? All countries took heed to the necessary austerity measures, including ones that have taken off from even more difficult times. Austerity means do not pay people for being unproductive or over priced government projects just for a few to benefit, but that the expense can reflect a more realistic work - output scenario. How does that help the economy exactly?. Austerity does not stifle business incentives to create more work, be more productive with the right price.They are two very different issues There are markets to tap and the opportunities change from decade to decade and have to keep a sharp eye on the look out, and create the right environment for it to happen. Austerity has nothing to do with real growth and it does NOT stand in its way. And by the way, we will never really know how much cash is hidden under the mattress and under the tiles. You might be surprised that Greece will rise like a phoenix in no time.
 
Angela said:
I just went to twitter. Who knows how representative this is of public opinion, though...

"Angela Merkel has done more today to destroy the European project than all euroskeptic right-wing parties combined.."

Paul Krugman (I should add that I'm not normally a fan of his)
"Meanwhile In Scotia ‏@MeanwhileScotia 1h1 hour ago Nobel Prize winning economist Paul Krugman calls it... #ThisIsACoup


"Suppose you consider Tsipras an incompetent twerp. Suppose you dearly want to see Syriza out of power. Suppose, even, that you welcome the prospect of pushing those annoying Greeks out of the euro.

Even if all of that is true, this Eurogroup list of demands is madness. The trending hashtag ThisIsACoup is exactly right. This goes beyond harsh into pure vindictiveness, complete destruction of national sovereignty, and no hope of relief. It is, presumably, meant to be an offer Greece can’t accept; but even so, it’s a grotesque betrayal of everything the European project was supposed to stand for.
Can anything pull Europe back from the brink? Word is that Mario Draghi is trying to reintroduce some sanity, that Hollande is finally showing a bit of the pushback against German morality-play economics that he so signally failed to supply in the past. But much of the damage has already been done. Who will ever trust Germany’s good intentions after this?
In a way, the economics have almost become secondary. But still, let’s be clear: what we’ve learned these past couple of weeks is that being a member of the eurozone means that the creditors can destroy your economy if you step out of line. This has no bearing at all on the underlying economics of austerity. It’s as true as ever that imposing harsh austerity without debt relief is a doomed policy no matter how willing the country is to accept suffering. And this in turn means that even a complete Greek capitulation would be a dead end.
Can Greece pull off a successful exit? Will Germany try to block a recovery? (Sorry, but that’s the kind of thing we must now ask.)
The European project — a project I have always praised and supported — has just been dealt a terrible, perhaps fatal blow. And whatever you think of Syriza, or Greece, it wasn’t the Greeks who did it."


"£50bn Greek assets to be handed to fund controlled by Schauble via KfW This is a criminal suggestion. He should be arrested."

"You should have seen Schauble's first draft: "Place the 50bn euros in a black bag and throw it over the bridge at midnight"

"My guess is that Merkel and the troika have inadvertently just primed the detonator for a #Brexit in 2017".



I should add that these are comments from English speaking countries.
Click to expand...

Paul Krugman is fulminating again today against the 50 billion privitsation fund under EU mandate.
He forgets to mention this privitisation was a condition for the 2010 Greece bailout, and it never happened despite numerous Greek promises.
If EU does not take matters in hand here, this part of the deal will never happen.
Furthermore Paul Krugman forgets to mention the 80 billion new loan Greece is offered.
Paul Krugman is well aware of all this, but he prefers to tell only half the trueth.
No more Paul Krugman for me please.
 
time will first tell whether Greeks accept this plan and later whether it succeeds
in the mean time papers and newsrooms will be full of speculations and mostly biassed comments
 
bicicleur said:
time will first tell whether Greeks accept this plan and later whether it succeeds
in the mean time papers and newsrooms will be full of speculations and mostly biassed comments
Click to expand...

How could I have failed to realize that anyone who disagrees with your (the German) position is biased, whereas your position is obviously totally objective and economically sound?
 
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