All Iberian men were wiped out by Yamna men 4,500 years ago

[markod]

Hi. how do you know about the increase in HG?

and.... I bet you, I truly bet you.... if not as a descendent of ATP3 then L51 is not Croatia/HUngary Yamnaya (3500bc?), but Romania/bulgaria Boian/Gulmenita (4300BC).

Because he pulls away from earlier EEFs in the PCAs I've seen, consistent with other Copper Age / Late Neolithic samples from Northern Spain. In general it seems Northern Spain seems to have a peak of HG ancestry that cannot be explained by direct admixture from Villabruna/Bichon etc., so it's more mysterious . This can be seen when one tries to model moderns as mixtures of ancient samples:

Note also the large affinity in the Canary Islands (IIRC inhabitants trace up to 30% of their DNA to the indigenous people) - much higher than in Central Europe, let alone the Balkans where it almost disappears. This is probably the signature of some differentiated HGs that lived in Western Europe and northern Africa at some point.

 

[Olympus Mons]

MarkoD...now I remember. Thank you.

 

[halfalp]

La brana is from El Miron Cluster, therefore it is related with Goyet, with some Villabruna, but therefore it is closer to Tianyuan than Villabruna. It's subtile.

 

[Ygorcs]

That's fair enough, I guess we just disagree, and hopefully aDNA will solve this dispute. I think the points about Y DNA being somewhat inconsistent with Steppe L51 and Yamnaya not being all Z2103 can't be answered as of yet (which is where most of my argument comes from). But yeah, wait for aDNA.

Yeah, ultimately we are all just speculating here, at best making some well informed "guesstimates". We need more aDNA to be able to really support this or that hypothesis more strongly. I'm glad you, like me, sound open-minded to an eventual change in your view about what really happened as we get to know more about these ancient population via aDNA.

 

[MOESAN]

@Markod
Sorry, but I don't see how you interpret the above maps: the Villabruna sharing seems (to me) the highest in Basques (higher than in Balts and Estonia on the map) and it's not so low around; lokk at AG3 too. Or I miss something? It's true it's not central to the present topic (someHG's are before supposed 'steppes', other after them.

 

[halfalp]

There is also a point that i think a lot of people minimize but i do believe its a reality fact. Geneticians sometimes have samples with enough genetic material to give us y-dna and mtdna haplogroups, but they dont do it, why? I dont think the reason is because " they try to hide us the truth ". I think, geneticians are scientists and you cannot have a " big sample " but not an history that goes with. It's very possible that they already have some M269 and L51, but they dont want to out it, because it needs to enter into a paper, that will teach us a story. One exemple of this is Sidelkino, our oldest EHG sample wich turns out to be a male wich Carlos Quiles consider it have enough genetic material to give us the y-dna haplogroup but they didn't. We cannot really blame them.

 

[ToBeOrNotToBe]

Yeah, ultimately we are all just speculating here, at best making some well informed "guesstimates". We need more aDNA to be able to really support this or that hypothesis more strongly. I'm glad you, like me, sound open-minded to an eventual change in your view about what really happened as we get to know more about these ancient population via aDNA.

Yup - if there's L51 on the Steppe during the copper age or earlier, that would settle a Steppe origin for me, no questions asked (but this would also be the case for finding it somewhere in the west med in terms of confirming the maritime hypothesis (and that could have been ATP3, which was about 5500 ybp and M269 in iberia, funnily enough with elevated Armenian-like ancestry)).

 

[Olympus Mons]

Yup - if there's L51 on the Steppe during the copper age or earlier, that would settle a Steppe origin for me, no questions asked (but this would also be the case for finding it somewhere in the west med in terms of confirming the maritime hypothesis (and that could have been ATP3, which was about 5500 ybp and M269 in iberia, funnily enough with elevated Armenian-like ancestry)).

Elevated Armenian. +!?!
You're pulling my leg, right? What do you call Armenian?

 

[ToBeOrNotToBe]

Elevated Armenian. +!?!
You're pulling my leg, right? What do you call Armenian?

Haha I knew you?d react like this. Just google ?ATP3 Eupedia?, it?s the top suggestion

Also, ignore that other sample with African admix

 

[ToBeOrNotToBe]

This is what maciamo said about ATP3 (though it?s basically Chalcolithic, not truly Neolithic):

ATP3 (3516-3362 BCE) stands out from other samples thanks to its high Northern Middle Eastern ancestry (31.97%) against 0% for ATP20, 11% for ATP17 and between 0% and 8% for other samples. What Genetiker calls Northern Middle Eastern is what we typically referred on this forum as Caucaso-Gedrosian admixture - the same as in the "Armenian-like admixture" in Yamna samples.

With its 32% of Caucaso-Gedrosian, 14% of Northern European ancestry, 6% of European Hunter-Gatherer and 3.8% of Veddoid, it does indeed look as if ATP3 has a bit over half of Steppe ancestry, but with a higher proportion of northern Middle Eastern and Veddoid than Yamna samples. In other words it could be descended to the pre-Indo-European Anatolian R1b-M269, the group of cattle herders that would cross the Caucasus and settle in the Pontic-Caspian Steppe. So could it be an offshoot of cattle herders that directly migrated from Anatolia to Iberia during the Neolithic period. But if so, how did his lineage not get more admixed along the way ? Neolithic farmers all over Europe were overwhelmingly (and often exclusively) Southern-European in admixture.

 

[ToBeOrNotToBe]

It?s yet more evidence for the maritime L51 theory (I mean, M269 in Iberia that early is a pretty bloody gigantic giveaway, people tried to explain it away by saying this was jus a ?lucky? lineage, I?m serious...), but as I mentioned in that thread not a killing blow, as they didn?t test for L51 (which is criminal). So for now, L51?s origin is still open for debate.

 

[Olympus Mons]

Haha I knew you�d react like this. Just google �ATP3 Eupedia�, it�s the top suggestion

Also, ignore that other sample with African admix

AhAHAH.. yes. I immediately react. I must have missed that thread... I don't even go there. It would probably make my expectations sky rocket. I always knew that Shulaveri 90% probability I was right, but from there on it would be downhill. actually I would say:

- 5000bc - Shulaveri (90% probability as M269/L23)
- 4900bc - Kuban river and into steppe (90%)
- 4800 bc - Tell tsaf Israel (60%)
- 4700bc - Merinde beni salama in Egypt (60%)
- 3600bc - Arriving Iberia chalc (50%) or even 40%)

So, having a ATP3 with that admix, so pretty much a Shulaveri descendant guy, it would really boast that 30% to something much higher.
Sure, some can say, look its not Shulaverian/Merimde (Egypt) but actually Shulaverian/Boian (80% prob). I agree. Since we have even Otzi sharing so much ancestry with Kum6. Yes, Pretty possible it was South Caucasus-Balkans-North Italy-Sardinia-Iberia…. Hence him being in north Iberia (Not south).

 

[ToBeOrNotToBe]

AhAHAH.. yes. I immediately react. I must have missed that thread... I don't even go there. It would probably make my expectations sky rocket. I always knew that Shulaveri 90% probability I was right, but from there on it would be downhill. actually I would say:

- 5000bc - Shulaveri (90% probability as M269/L23)
- 4800 bc - Tell tsaf (60%)
- 4700bc - Merinde beni salama (50%)
- 3600bc - Arriving Iberia chalc (40%) or even 30%)

So, having a ATP3 with that admix, so pretty much a Shulaveri guy, it would really boast that 30% to something much higher.
Sure, some can say, look its not Shulaverian/Merimde (Egypt) but actually Shulaverian/Boian (80% prob). I agree. Since we have even Otzi sharing so much ancestry with Kum6. Yes, Pretty possible it was South Caucasus-Balkans-North Italy-Sardinia-Iberia…. Hence him being in north Iberia (Not south).

I can't say I agree with how certain you sound concerning the identities of the different cultures that L51 would have been part of on its way to Iberia, but about a broad West Asian origin, I'd agree. Shulaveri-Shomu is also pretty interesting, to be fair, and I largely agree with your hypothesis that Shulaveri is related to the pre-PIE folk from the South Caucasus, however I don't know whether I'd also consider it ancestral to L51 folk as well as Z2103 folk (I'd probably guess a Syro-Anatolian origin of the people that would later sail to Spain and become L51, with direct access to the Mediterranean, rather than a more distant Caucasian origin)

 

[Olympus Mons]

I can't say I agree with how certain you sound concerning the identities of the different cultures that L51 would have been part of on its way to Iberia, but about a broad West Asian origin, I'd agree. Shulaveri-Shomu is also pretty interesting, to be fair, and I largely agree with your hypothesis that Shulaveri is related to the pre-PIE folk from the South Caucasus, however I don't know whether I'd also consider it ancestral to L51 folk as well as Z2103 folk (I'd probably guess a Syro-Anatolian origin of the people that would later sail to Spain and become L51, with direct access to the Mediterranean, rather than a more distant Caucasian origin)

No... it had to be them. Halaf as a distance hypothesis but cant really imagine anyone else.
And I don't believe in Martime route. Still find it strange that if north Africa was plain, highway, full of resources, water, grass, etc. how come people don't really think it as THE route to Iberia. But yes. could be elsewhere. Who knows.

 

[ToBeOrNotToBe]

No... it had to be them. Halaf as a distance hypothesis but cant really imagine anyone else.
And I don't believe in Martime route. Still find it strange that if north Africa was plain, highway, full of resources, water, grass, etc. how come people don't really think it as THE route to Iberia. But yes. could be elsewhere. Who knows.

Thanks for correcting yourself before I had to

 

[halfalp]

Keep in mind that David Reich probably has a huge database of unpublished samples. I think if there was any evidence that L51 was in the west he'd probably adapt his views to fit the facts.

I used to be convinced L51 diversified in LN/Chalcolithic Western Europe, but if it isn't there then modern phylogeographic diversity might be a result of large-scale population replacement.

Irrespective of this, it will still be interesting to see where and why steppe males became L51, having been exclusively Z2103 previously. Vucedol and Hungarian Yamnaya still seem to have been Z2103 dominated. The TMRCA of 3700 B. C. and the 'Mediterranean' distribution of basal L51 clades do look weird and not very consistent with Yamnaya expansion for sure.

Maybe some of those hypothetic unpublished L51 samples were conserved for an hypothetic paper of peopling and prehistoric Italy.

 

[Olympus Mons]

Thanks for correcting yourself before I had to

All a matter of probability...
And what Syro-anatolian are you thinking about?

 

[Olympus Mons]

I was watching David Reich here :https://youtu.be/fHdCuhYRHqo?t=2825

a. It strikes me as odd that he keeps referring Bell beakers origins in spain. Does he not know that it was in Portugal? Not that being important (same region I guess), unless for the fact that the places (Zambujal, VNSP and Oeiras, etc) were particular (by fortresses) and that we have no DNA for that people. We know that when we have spain samples (near Madrid, or south) is already with elements that we find in Centra Europe as well. Its just strange. To be 100% sure, only when we have proper bell beakers from that region we will know for sure.

b. Also at minute 42 he talks of Dravidian as somewhat related to IE... so even in linguistica they are changing the tune for a PIE in south Caucasus , I guess.

 

[halfalp]

He doesn't change or create anything, he just narrate a story with hypothesis that already existed. I think a perfect exemple that most of us already quoted is the sudden use in " high standard " academic of an old ( 30 years old ) italian paper about potential Anatolians proper names and an hypothetic city Armi. Why unearth an obscure paper like this, to feet an actual paper or hypothesis? People, especially people who tend without reasoning to destroy everything that is " religious " tend to lack criticizm on people who use science at their own will. Every scientists wants to do " the " discovery that gonna ciment them in history, it's a fact, Harvard have hundreds of collaborators and everybody needs a piece of the cake, that we want to see it or not. But anyway, you cannot really fake history, most governements who used propaganda knows it.

 

[Ygorcs]

This is what maciamo said about ATP3 (though it�s basically Chalcolithic, not truly Neolithic):

ATP3 (3516-3362 BCE) stands out from other samples thanks to its high Northern Middle Eastern ancestry (31.97%) against 0% for ATP20, 11% for ATP17 and between 0% and 8% for other samples. What Genetiker calls Northern Middle Eastern is what we typically referred on this forum as Caucaso-Gedrosian admixture - the same as in the "Armenian-like admixture" in Yamna samples.

With its 32% of Caucaso-Gedrosian, 14% of Northern European ancestry, 6% of European Hunter-Gatherer and 3.8% of Veddoid, it does indeed look as if ATP3 has a bit over half of Steppe ancestry, but with a higher proportion of northern Middle Eastern and Veddoid than Yamna samples. In other words it could be descended to the pre-Indo-European Anatolian R1b-M269, the group of cattle herders that would cross the Caucasus and settle in the Pontic-Caspian Steppe. So could it be an offshoot of cattle herders that directly migrated from Anatolia to Iberia during the Neolithic period. But if so, how did his lineage not get more admixed along the way ? Neolithic farmers all over Europe were overwhelmingly (and often exclusively) Southern-European in admixture.

I honestly did not understand Maciamo's point in this post you used as a reference. Let's see: how could a pre-Indo-European Anatolian R1b-M269 lineage migrate and settle along many generations as far as Iberia, however maintain a high proportion of Northern European ancestry if he had really been a mix of the local Iberians with these Anatolian R1b cattle herders? Would this Northern European admixture have come on its own - without the mixed steppe pastoralists - to Iberia (unlikely, no significant evidence of EHG or SHG-like in Western Europe, let alone Iberia before the Chalcolithic AFAIK)? Would it be present in Anatolia since the earlier Neolithic, even before the formation of the earliest PIE community (until now not even as late as the Bronze Age did any Anatolian sample show a hint of EHG)? Considering that there should've been dozens of generations between the R1b-M269 ancestor and this ATP3, I find it much more likely that he had a genetic history in his family in which there had been mixing between Caucasian-influenced Anatolian migrants (maybe part of the waves that also defined Pre-Hellenic Greece and Minoan Crete), Eastern European migrants from the steppe (or near the steppe), and the local EEF elements. It's just weird, unless we haven't found the "right" samples in Neolithic Anatolia, that the IBERIAN (not Ukrainian or Romanian) descendant of a supposed "R1b-M269 pastoralist population" would be so high in a Northern European admixture - unless this R1b-M269 population did not come directly from Anatolia, but from somewhere in Eastern Europe or so.

For instance, the Mycenean Greeks had more "Caucasian" than "Northern European" admixture, but that does not mean that their earlier ancestors also had these exact proportions. Those people may simply have descended from two different lineages, one already mixed with Caucasian admixture and the other already much more enriched in Caucasian admixture (as was probably the case in Mycenaean Greece).