Cat 4 Hurricane to slam into Florida's West Coast.

[Angela]

I'm hoping against hope that it moves further west, but I think we will get a more or less direct hit. It's going to be devastating. A 12 foot storm surge, and that's not taking into account normal wave action and high tides, would go straight across the barrier islands and into the mainland. For a lot of the coastal condominiums, there's a 10-12 foot first "floor" which is really an "open" parking area. The building is held up by concrete pylons. I hope to hell they hold up. Even if they do, with winds of this magnitude, I don't know if the hurricane shutters will hold if you're right on the beach.

It's just awful. The whole peninsula is basically in peril. Millions of people have efficiently evacuated, but the whole state can't pick up and go. This is why I don't go at this time of year. Still, the next couple of months are going to be a nightmare.

Speaking of efficiency, so far I'm very impressed by the organization of the efforts coordinated by the governor. There's a limit to what anyone can do, however.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLLnsOPIoKg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YnxuJB8R_A

 

[Twilight]

I'm hoping against hope that it moves further west, but I think we will get a more or less direct hit. It's going to be devastating. A 12 foot storm surge, and that's not taking into account normal wave action and high tides, would go straight across the barrier islands and into the mainland. For a lot of the coastal condominiums, there's a 10-12 foot first "floor" which is really an "open" parking area. The building is held up by concrete pylons. I hope to hell they hold up. Even if they do, with winds of this magnitude, I don't know if the hurricane shutters will hold if you're right on the beach.

It's just awful. The whole peninsula is basically in peril. Millions of people have efficiently evacuated, but the whole state can't pick up and go.

Speaking of efficiency, so far I'm very impressed by the organization of the efforts coordinated by the governor. There's a limit to what anyone can do, however.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLLnsOPIoKg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YnxuJB8R_A

Stay safe East Coast.

 

[LeBrok]

Good luck to Florida and all people of Caribbeans.

 

[Angela]

This is what I'm talking about...

I'm just heart sick...this is home too.

 

[Jovialis]

This is what I'm talking about...

I'm just heart sick...this is home too.

I'm sorry to hear that Angela, I hope for the best!

 

[davef]

I have a Facebook friend (she's Cuban and gorgeous and always wishes me a happy birthday) who lives in Florida and based on her posts, she's frightened and was hiding in her closet due to the tornados. Hopefully, she'll turn out ok...I love her frightened reactions to my Facebook profile pics! Seriously, I hope she's ok.

And I don't understand why we have these massive hurricanes back to back. First Harvey, now Irma?

 

[bicicleur 2]

Fortunately, and with perfect hindsight, I can tell you they made to much fuzz about this in Florida.

I hope this also applies to your place.

 

[Angela]

Fortunately, and with perfect hindsight, I can tell you they made to much fuzz about this in Florida.

I hope this also applies to your place.

Thank-you Bicicleur, Jovialis, Le Brok, all you guys.

I could smack every one of the people at the National Hurricane Center right up the side of the head!

My place is right on the beach in a location where they said we could get at least 10-15 feet of storm surge and goodness knows what kinds of winds. I always put the hurricane shutters down when I close it up for the summer, and the building is on concrete pilings, but still...

Of course, no one is allowed in the area yet, so there may be damage that I don't know about yet, but I was worrying about the whole thing crashing down, or at least massive damage. Had it really stayed over water longer and been a Cat 5, I suppose that could have happened.

Still, I guess this is not an exact science. We dodged a bullet at the expense of the poor people in northern Cuba and even, to some extent, the people in Marco Island, the mainland touchdown area.

Really, it's anyone's guess how long our good luck, or my good luck, can continue. There hasn't been a direct hit of a major hurricane in my area since 1922. It is something we considered when buying long ago. Some areas of Florida are just more hurricane prone.

 

[bicicleur 2]

it was prime time for the media
on TV we saw some of the millions evacuated, all of them were told their house would be under 10 feet of water
in the mean time we saw reporters who had gone into the storm zone, dramatising the whole event, and I guess who would have been standing in the way or would need recue if it realy would happen what they were predicting

 

[Angela]

it was prime time for the media
on TV we saw some of the millions evacuated, all of them were told their house would be under 10 feet of water
in the mean time we saw reporters who had gone into the storm zone, dramatising the whole event, and I guess who would have been standing in the way or would need recue if it realy would happen what they were predicting

They do dramatize; I just saw some oohing and awing over a mattress hanging off a street sign! Still, to be fair, those predictions all came from the scientists at the National Hurricane Center using multiple models. As I said, had a Cat 5 made a direct hit on Gulf front properties, it would have been utter devastation. I'm just thankful it didn't happen.

That said, although I've been scouring local news outlets and websites all day I still don't know what happened to my key as they won't be opening my road until 4PM so goodness knows what it looks like. I'm getting anxious again because on a neighboring key some of the buildings have their windows and glass doors blown out, some of the roofs on the top stories are blown off, and most of the cars are severely damaged. Oh well, if that's the worst, I'll deal. You have no choice but to look on the bright side.

 

[bicicleur 2]

Still, to be fair, those predictions all came from the scientists at the National Hurricane Center using multiple models.

what the scientists say is a possibility is presented by some of the media as a certainty
and if they don't, they still keep on speculating on the worst case scenario

some of them must be dissapointed that they don't have anything else to focus on than a displaced matress, they had hoped for more

of course, there will be some people who have lost a lot, but they will be forgotten by the media by next week

 

[Angela]

The media wanted a tragedy, and they got it, but not in mainland Florida; rather, in the Keys south of Miami, and of course in the Caribbean. I don't think anyone's going to be going to St. Maarten's this winter.

The Keys:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8wUBGv0nnMU

The way I hope it will be again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Le8n1a1K1V4


As for my sliver of Paradise, there's no power, so no airconditioning, no phone, no running water, but it doesn't keep people off the beach! And no, they didn't evacuate.

 

[davef]

I hope your condominium in Florida up, Angela. I'm sure it will.

 

[Maciamo]

According to the BBC, a quarter of the homes in the Florida Keys have been destroyed by the hurricane, while another 65% suffered damages. So 90% of the houses are either damaged or destroyed. This kind of news never ceases to amaze me. The strongest winds recorded were 192 km/h (120 mi/h), like a powerful European windstorm - typically ranging from 180 to 220 km/h, but the record in recent years was 266 km/h in Scotland in 2011, close to the maximum speed of Irma in the East Caribbeans. Yet, I have never heard of a single house being destroyed in a windstorm or hurricane in Europe.

Florida's GDP per capita exceeds that of Britain, France or Spain, where windstorms happen every year too. How comes that they can't built houses that are sturdy enough to withstand wind? People in the Atlantic region of Europe have built houses from stone for centuries (mind you, they started in the Neolithic in places like Skara Brae in Scotland) because of the windstorms. How long is it going to take for Floridans to come to grips with their geography and build in consequence?

I was equally shocked by the devastation wrought by relatively mild typhoons on shoddy wooden Japanese houses, but at least they have the excuse of earthquakes, which prevents them from building in stone and mortar. Florida has no earthquakes. I say Florida, but the situation is hardly better in other southern states like Louisiana and Texas. Is rampant poverty to blame? I thought that the Florida Keys were home to a relatively wealthy population.

 

[Angela]

^^I'm not familiar with these wind storms. Are those winds sustained for twelve-eighteen hours straight? Repeated pounding by sustained winds of 157 plus miles per hour, which is what we're talking about with Cat 5 hurricanes, is bound to blow out windows or tear off roofs even on concrete structures.

Anyway, all the newer construction in Florida is built to withstand Category 5 winds, including mine. However, the more distinctive and more beautiful older buildings are wood construction. A plethora of those kind of charming structures, many of which are on the National Register of historic homes and therefore protected from re-development, is part of what makes the Keys so wonderful. It's not glitzy Miami, full of concrete high rises. It's the relaxing, more natural Florida of yesteryear, and a lot of the original "Conchs" as the locals call themselves, still remain. These are the people who refuse to evacuate normally, although I think after this they may reconsider.

Even the hotels are wonderful and so different from the newer concrete boxes.

I would personally much rather live in something like this than in my own six story concrete building, but it's both more expensive and more dangerous.

There are also, of course, less wealthy people who live in mobile home parks etc. who always have to evacuate during hurricanes.

Plus, it's not wind damage that causes the majority of the destruction in a lot of hurricanes; it's water surge, as in 10 to 15 feet of water coming inland for miles. There's nothing you can do about that. Most of Florida is at sea level and the ground is porous rock. That's why you can't build basements, and everything has to be on concrete slabs: the ocean would fill it up instantly. I didn't fear that the winds would bring my building down, although some roof and glass damage might have happened. I feared a water surge of 15 feet. Luckily it didn't happen, although it might some day. I'll take my chances. I won't give it up.

Category	Sustained Winds	Types of Damage Due to Hurricane Winds
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.
Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.
Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.
Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

[TD="align: center"]1[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]74-95 mph
64-82 kt
119-153 km/h[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]2[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]96-110 mph
83-95 kt
154-177 km/h[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]3
(major)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]111-129 mph
96-112 kt
178-208 km/h[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]4
(major)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]130-156 mph
113-136 kt
209-251 km/h[/TD]

[TD="align: center"]5
(major)[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]157 mph or higher
137 kt or higher
252 km/h or higher[/TD]

It's just awful: the Keys that so many have known and loved, at least the middle Keys where the storm went through, may never be the same again.

 

[Maciamo]

^^I'm not familiar with these wind storms. Are those winds sustained for twelve-eighteen hours straight? Repeated pounding by sustained winds of 157 plus miles per hour, which is what we're talking about with Cat 5 hurricanes, is bound to blow out windows or tear off roofs even on concrete structures.

European windstorms can also last for several days. In tropical regions there is a clear nomenclature. Hurricanes are in Central America, Cyclones are in South Asia and Typhoons in East Asia. In Europe, most are called windstorms, but some are classified as hurricanes (e.g. Debbie and Katia, the latter first hitting the East coast of the US) or cyclones (e.g. Lothar and Martin in 1999, Dirk in 2013 or Niklas in 2015) too, and others yet as gales (e.g. Gale of January 1976). So it's pretty much the same thing.

Yet it's very rare that windows break during such powerful storms. That would happen with very old single-glazing panes, but not with anything built over the last 30 to 40 years (double or triple glazing). Damages are mostly to the roofs, caused by falling trees, or from the floods.

However, the more distinctive and more beautiful older buildings are wood construction. A plethora of those kind of charming structures, many of which are on the National Register of historic homes and therefore protected from re-development, is part of what makes the Keys so wonderful.

I agree that these buildings are beautiful and worth preserving. But surely there is a way to build (or reinforce existing building) wooden building with an inner concrete structure that would preserve the inside in case of hurricanes. If there is "only" some wooden panels torn away from the facade to replace it's much better than to have to rebuild the whole house and replace all its content.

It's not glitzy Miami, full of concrete high rises.

I know. I have been to Florida, including the Keys.

There are also, of course, less wealthy people who live in mobile home parks etc. who always have to evacuate during hurricanes.

These are a small minority of the population. 5 million people had to be evacuated during Irma, that is most of the population of south and west Florida. I have never heard of evacuations because of windstorms/cyclones/hurricanes in Europe. Not even on a smaller scale. It's just not necessary.