Germanic settlement in the southern Balkans ? ?

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Something has been bothering me for some time because of the lack of detailed Y-DNA data in the Balkans. There is an unusually high percentage of typically Germanic haplogroups (I1, I2b, R1b and R1a) in Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro, Serbia, and to a lower extent Bosnia-Herzegovina. The combined studies I used to create the table of Y-DNA frequencies totalled an amazing 10% of I1 in Macedonia and 4% of I2b in Serbia. The Pericic et al. study of the Balkans found 5% of I1 among Herzegovinians, Serbs, Kosovar Albanians and Macedonians.

If only I could get a detailed analysis of R1b subclades and R1a STR markers in that region, I would be able to confirm whether the four haplogroups came together as part of a major Germanic migration. The only one I can think of are the Visigoths in the late 4th century. They started their invasion of the Roman Empire from what is now Moldova, another known hotspot of haplogroup I1 outside the traditional Germanic homeland.

Some people have hypothesised that I1 originated in South-East Europe, or that it once covered most of eastern and northern Europe, before the Neolithic and Indo-European migrations. But STR markers tell a different story. I1 is a young haplogroup whose members descend from a common ancestor who lived barely 4500 years ago, in the early Bronze Age, not during the Paleolithic. So I1 cannot be indigenous to the Balkans and Moldova. It came fairly recently, after the Bronze Age. Considering its point of origin in northern Germany and southern Scandinavia, I cannot think of any other possible source as a Germanic one. As there has been no massive Germanic migrations to the Balkans in Medieval times or later, the most likely period is late Roman Empire.

The Balkans have the most diverse array of R1a lineages in the world. Some have seen it as a sign that R1a originated there during the Paleolithic, then moved to the Indian subcontinent and Central Asia via the Eurasian steppe. I think that part of the genetic diversity within R1a in the Balkans is simply due to the fact that the region lies at the receiving end of the countless migrations from the steppes (see 5000 years of migrations from the Eurasian steppes to Europe).

There is certainly too much R1a in the Balkans for it to be all Germanic. In fact, I think that the Visigoths (or any other Germanic tribe that settled there) were most likely to carry 20 to 35% of R1a and perhaps 20 to 30% of I1, 3 to 8% of I2b and 35 to 60% of R1b. If the average I1 for the southern Balkans is 5%, then we can expect only about 4 or 5% of R1a to be Germanic.

Not all R1b should be Germanic either. Macedonia and Albania combined have about 15% of R1b, out of which only about 5 or 6% are probably Germanic. The rest would have come during the early Indo-European invasion of Europe via the Balkans and the Danube basin. Later migrations (from the Scythians onwards) would have brought mostly R1a though.
 
I would remind on recent study on Serbia and Montenegro which states:
7,82% of I1 and 2,23% of I2b for Serbia
6,2% of I1 and 1,73% of I2b for Montenegro
That makes all together 10% of Germanic I haplogroups for Serbia (excluding R1b and R1a) which is unusual and high percent for Southeastern Europe.
The most possible candidates considering historical facts could be Goths, but their kingdom was much more western in position.
Ostrogothic_Kingdom.png

Other candidate could be Transylvanian Saxon which came on Balkan in medieval times as miners and were quite numerous around mining points. A lot of places in Serbia, Bosnia have names Sasi, Sasina, Sase which remind on them. It is well known fact that they were later incorporated in local Slavic nations.
This is part from encyclopedia
"Balkans
In the Middle Ages, groups of Saxon ore miners (called саси, sasi in the South Slavic languages) settled in ore-rich regions of Southeastern Europe. In the 13th and 14th centuries, Saxons from the Upper Harz and Westphalia settled in and around Chiprovtsi in modern northwestern Bulgaria (then in the Second Bulgarian Empire) to extract ore in the western Balkan Mountains, receiving royal privileges from Bulgarian tsar Ivan Shishman. It is thought that these miners established Roman Catholicism in this part of the Balkans before being completely assimilated and merging with the local population. Along with spreading Roman Catholicism, the Saxons also enriched the local vocabulary with Germanic words and introduced new mining techniques and metal-working instruments to Bulgaria. Ethnic subgroups that are thought to be partially descended from these Saxons are the Banat Bulgarians and the Krashovani.
Saxons also mined ore in the Osogovo and Belasica mountains (between Bulgaria and the Republic of Macedonia), as well as around Samokov in Rila and in various parts of the Rhodopes and around Etropole (all in Bulgaria), but were assimilated without establishing Roman Catholicism there .
The Saxons miners in Serbia, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina—active in Brskovo, Rudnik, Olovo, Novo Brdo and other places—also left a significant trace in the mining and metal-working history of the South Slavs.
In the Srebrenica region for example the mine of Sase translates directly to Saxon in the South Slavic languages of the region. Many of the regions Bosniaks are the direct descendents of these very same miners who settled into the region between the 12th and 15th century."
Third candidate could be Normans from south Italy which were active on the Balkans too, especially in the coastal Adriatic region of Albania and Montenegro. A lot of merceniaries in medieval states of Balkan were of Germanic origin. Just to mention Serbian Allemanic Guard.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palman
but I don't believe they could contribute to nowadays gene pool in significant percent.
 
R1b also is a real Germanic haplogroup. This haplogroup is very frequent
in Norway, Sweden and Denmark. Never Celtic tribes entered these areas,
they are purely germanic.

About the origin of haplogroup I: has it originated in
Scandinavia? What is the relation with the others haplogroups, for example Ia etc?
 
R1b also is a real Germanic haplogroup. This haplogroup is very frequent
in Norway, Sweden and Denmark. Never Celtic tribes entered these areas,
they are purely germanic.

About the origin of haplogroup I: has it originated in
Scandinavia? What is the relation with the others haplogroups, for example Ia etc?

R1b is associated with the spread of Celtic languages. Arguably, the bulk of R1b is associated with Celtic peoples. Celts did reach Scandinavia, i.e, the Cimbri of Denmark.

The R1b which is Germanic-leaning [though not intrinsically Germanic] appears to be some of U106/S21, some of the rarer U198/S29 and the recently discovered 'Norse' form of R1b, found in the Scottish Clan MacLeod, and tested for as SNP S182. The rest, or bulk, seems Celtic.

It is specifically I1 haplogroup, not haplogroup I per se, that is seen as having a Scandinavian origin [around Denmark, post-LGM] by Ken Nordtvedt and by Peter Underhill.
 
I believe that West Germanic tribes indeed had significant percentages of R1b (maybe even majority).
But when it comes to East Germanic tribes the story was probably different, meaning frequency of R1b was low (or very low).

There are records about both Visigoths and Ostrogoths temporarily settling in Macedonia. Some of them could’ve remained there.
Btw 10% of I1 is for Greek Macedonia not FYROM (FYROM has 5-6% I1 by Pericic). Also Myres et al have found very low frequencies for “Germanic” R1b subclades in Macedonia and neighboring countries.

Regarding I2b1, I also used to think it came together with I1, but pattern of I2b1 distribution in Southeast Europe seems to be different from I1, so it is possible when I1 came, part of I2b1 was there already.
 
I would remind on recent study on Serbia and Montenegro which states:
7,82% of I1 and 2,23% of I2b for Serbia
6,2% of I1 and 1,73% of I2b for Montenegro
That makes all together 10% of Germanic I haplogroups for Serbia (excluding R1b and R1a) which is unusual and high percent for Southeastern Europe.
The most possible candidates considering historical facts could be Goths, but their kingdom was much more western in position.
Ostrogothic_Kingdom.png

Other candidate could be Transylvanian Saxon which came on Balkan in medieval times as miners and were quite numerous around mining points. A lot of places in Serbia, Bosnia have names Sasi, Sasina, Sase which remind on them. It is well known fact that they were later incorporated in local Slavic nations.

Right, 10% of people were imported miners and Serbia was mining superpower of the world...... :)

I think it comes from several sources but mostly from Goths...
not from the Ostrogothic kingdom that iapodos talks about, but from earlier settlements of Goths seeking refuge in Serbia during invasion of Huns...
450s.PNG


interestingly, there is also medieval historical source "Chronicle of the Priest of Duklja" that claims that south Slavs are in fact Goths and gives overview of kings and situation in country following arrival of Goths ... the source claims that Goths have divided their land on two parts - calling mountains near the sea Croatia (also Montenegro as red or south Croatia) and giving name Serbia to both Bosnia and Raska(part of today Serbia)...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronicle_of_the_Priest_of_Duklja

because of this document, I was wondering even if I2a2 could have in fact arrived with Goths... as it does have large variance in areas of Gothic settlements around Black sea, and is in general spread in their zone of influence...... however, I discarded that because of language issue... as I discarded Illyrian origin of I2a2 with same reason... areas that are extremelly homogenous in origin, as one of Bosnian Croats is extremelly dominantly I2a2, cannot change language without any traces of old language... that is just not realistic... only alternative explanation was that it has arrived with Slavic people, or their precursors speaking same language (Pannonians)....

Back to I1, besides Goths, Gepids could be another source of I1 as they lived for a while in Voivodina and were raiding towards south....

also, according to some proposals Serbs are supposed to have (before settling in Balkans) settled first Bohemia and areas of east Germany where Sorbs live today, so they could have assimilated some local I1 tribe that came with them...

I would also add that Scordisci as previous settlers of Serbia do fit tribal name pattern for I haplogroup...
they were Celtic, but R1b is exceptionally low in serbia, while area didnot go through major depopulation events (I claim this because E-V13 is close to 20% which is about 2 times more than in Bosnia and 3-4 times more than in Croatia )...so Celtic Scordisci might have dominantly been not R1b but haplogroup I carriers...


In addition, split of I2 and I1 was likely not clear cut...so some I1 is likely to have always accompanied I2a2....
 
Regarding I2b1, I also used to think it came together with I1, but pattern of I2b1 distribution in Southeast Europe seems to be different from I1, so it is possible when I1 came, part of I2b1 was there already.

There is one more possibility for I2b1, very hypothetical - Visigoths could have had higher I2b1 frequency than Ostrogoths.
 

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There is one more possibility for I2b1, very hypothetical - Visigoths could have had higher I2b1 frequency than Ostrogoths.
hm, matches their position next to Black sea....
but why is than (according to your map) almost none I2b1 in Iberia, which is their last settlement......

I think Goths were I1, while I2b1 might even have been carried by some other folk...

attachment.php


lol, Huns...
http://www.euratlas.net/history/europe/200/entity_1020.html
http://www.euratlas.net/history/europe/300/entity_1020.html
http://www.euratlas.net/history/europe/400/entity_1020.html
no people who origin from Huns survived in Pannonia...


back to I1
from what I just read on maps, Visigoths were also known as Getae and Tervingi...

Huns pushed them from Black sea area in Romania towards south in Serbia, Macedonia, Greece, Albania...

and according to this map, in 400 AD Serbia, Macedonia, Greece, Albania are named
"Tervingorum Praefectura Praetorio per Illyricum (Illyricum) , Praefectura Praetorio per Illyricum Regis Alarici, Visigothorum Praefectura Praetorio per Illyricum."

http://www.euratlas.net/history/europe/400/entity_719.html

with such a name for province, Visigoths must have been very populous in the area...
 
spread of I2b1 west of Black sea might be from earlier period (prior to Roman empire) as it does not show any respect for borders of Byzantium...
but again Getae or Visigoths pop up... though Carpi might fit as well ...

Btw. I just read that in Chinese sources Alans are one of the Hun tribes... strange...

Bulgarians are another possibility
Volga Bulgarians match spread further north of area between Black sea and Caspian sea
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volga_Bulgaria
and also spread near Black sea in Romania..
http://www.euratlas.net/history/europe/600/entity_55.html

but traces of it in Asia minor and Levant tell me that haplogroup I2b1 was in Balkans perhaps already in time of sea peoples movement...
 
Obviously we are talking about 2 different clads of I2b1, one in east Europe, one in west. East looks like Bulgar signature, for a lack of a better much in my mind now.
East looks like Germanic. We don't know any Bulgar invasion into Germany area, so it had to exist there for many years before, like couple of thousand years.
North looks like spread by Saxons, and stronger Portugal area could have been marked by Suebi invasion.
The East is completely separate though. There could have been pre Roman movement from Saxon/Suebi area to the east, settled in the area where Bugars later came from.
East doesn't look like Hunik invasion. We would have had more I2b1 in Hungary.
Heck, a very interesting map Shetop.
 
When I look longer at this map I can see a strong Slavic thrust west into Germany. There is a strong border that starts at Baltic sea and goes down through east Germany, Czechs, Austria to Slovenia/Italia border. Call it a front. :)
Also I can see spread of I2b1 with Franks (Germans) into France, till they met with strong Iberian/Celtic resistance. Or whatever kingdom was there at the time.
Frank714.gif

They even got to Mediterranean sea and we have a stronger signature of I2b1 there at one point.
On the other hand Goths/Visigoths didn't have anything to do with I2b1. Whenever they went they didn't spread the I2b1 with them. Considering that they started going west from Black sea, they didn't pick up and spread I2b1 with them. It means there was no I2b1 at Black Sea at the time Goths lived there, for few hundreds of years. It confirms my believe that it showed up there later with Bulgars from Volga. Looks like they settled in Romania by the sea for a while before some of them went south. It looks like they made few cousins in Albania too.
I just wonder if Bulgarian language was derivative of Scythians, therefore related to Slavic and it was easy for Bulgars to get slavonized with similar Slavic language?

Interesting is that Baltic nations have stronger I2b1 signature. Was there a thrust of Germanic tribes closer to the sea? Did some come with Vikings? Teutonic knits?
I'm leaning with the last. The Prussians were conquered by Teutonic knits, and majority of them came from Germany.
 
I'm still looking at the map....lol
Looks like Bulgars moved from Volga to the north part of Back sea first.


Then they went like this:

Just watch out, Magyars are right behind. :)
 
If this map is correct, Bulgars conquered Greece, Macedonia, Albania and part of Turkey.

We also see the heightened amount of I2b1 in this area. It farther confirms Bulgar origin of this clad. Saying lightly they were very promiscuous these Bulgars, lol.
The only white spot there is in Macedonia. Did Serbs reconquered Macedonia from Bulgars? (not familiar with this part of history) Looks like Bulgars were wiped out from Macedonia before they managed to spread their seed.
If yes then most of R1a in Macedonia is Serb/Slavic, and not Bulgars or Bulgarian/Slavic.
 
If this map is correct, Bulgars conquered Greece, Macedonia, Albania and part of Turkey.

We also see the heightened amount of I2b1 in this area. It farther confirms Bulgar origin of this clad. Saying lightly they were very promiscuous these Bulgars, lol.
The only white spot there is in Macedonia. Did Serbs reconquered Macedonia from Bulgars? (not familiar with this part of history) Looks like Bulgars were wiped out from Macedonia before they managed to spread their seed.
If yes then most of R1a in Macedonia is Serb/Slavic, and not Bulgars or Bulgarian/Slavic.

Bulgarians never conquered Greece and Turkey, and what you are watching on this map is actually Byzantine Empire. If you look carefully it is written in the corner, Bulgaria is marked with other colour on the north.
Macedonia during early medieval period was mostly Byzantine and Bulgarian teritory. Serbs conquered Macedonia in 13th century and kept it for about hundred years till Turkish invasion.
 
The hotspot of I2b in Russia is in Nizniy Novgorod, Ryazan region and in Republic of Mordovia. The Mordvin people inhabitate all of this regions. They showed about 20 % of haplogroup I, I don't of what subcalade, probably I2b.
Mordvins are mentioned in early Getica of Jordanes as subjects of Gothic king Ermanaric, whose state was north of the black sea, around Moldavian hotspot of I2b.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ermanaric

It is connection worth of exploring. I don't believe that Bulgars, Huns are candidates for I2b in easterm Europe. Volga Bulgar region correspond with today Russian Tatarstan, and among Tatars there are significant percent of haplogroup I, but I1 and not I2b.
 
There is one more possibility for I2b1, very hypothetical - Visigoths could have had higher I2b1 frequency than Ostrogoths.

how yes no said:
spread of I2b1 west of Black sea might be from earlier period (prior to Roman empire) as it does not show any respect for borders of Byzantium...

Actually, based on the above map, I2b1 does seem to fit nicely within the Byzantine borders, which ended around the modern border of Romania and Moldova.

If the I2b1 along the west Black Sea coast is indeed the result of Gothic settlements, it doesn't really matter whether all of it lies inside of outside the boundaries of the Roman/Byzantine Empire. After the Empire crumbled, people were free to move across the former border. What I mean is that the I2b1 distribution we see today does not represent a fixed moment in history, but everything that happened until today.

Here is what could have happened :

Some of the Goths stayed outside the Roman borders, accounting for the I2b in Moldova and Ukraine.

The Goths defeated the Romans at the Battle of Adrianople, and many decided to settled in Adrianople itself, while others continued their journey west to Italy, Gaul and Iberia. Based on the above map, Thrace (where Adrianople/Edime is located) seems to be a hotspot for I2b1. Cinnioglu et al.'s study of Anatolia confirms the presence of I1 in Thrace, a further indication that the Goths did indeed settle there.

From Adrianople, Gothic lineages would have expanded progressively within the boundaries of the Byzantine then Ottoman Empire. Haplogroup tend to spread simply by the natural flow of people who move or marry in the next village, expanding little by little over the course of many centuries. As people tend to marry within their linguistic group, an expansion of these I2b1 lineages within the Romanian/Moldovan-speaking area is to be expected. Eventually the lineages from Adrianople would have reached those who stayed outside the Roman boundaries and met around Moldova.
 
The hotspot of I2b in Russia is in Nizniy Novgorod, Ryazan region and in Republic of Mordovia. The Mordvin people inhabitate all of this regions. They showed about 20 % of haplogroup I, I don't of what subcalade, probably I2b.
Mordvins are mentioned in early Getica of Jordanes as subjects of Gothic king Ermanaric, whose state was north of the black sea, around Moldavian hotspot of I2b.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ermanaric
It is connection worth of exploring. I don't believe that Bulgars, Huns are candidates for I2b in easterm Europe. Volga Bulgar region correspond with today Russian Tatarstan, and among Tatars there are significant percent of haplogroup I, but I1 and not I2b.

attachment.php

Russian-regions.png

Mordovia is number 11 on map, Tatarstan is number 13...
it is more or less same location, as both republics are pretty small and nearby... it's hard to tell which one fits better to hotspot...when I look at landmarks and borders on the north it seems to be 13, when I look the ones on the south it looks as 11... actually, I think 11...so, Mordvins and Goths

though, besides trajectory of Goths it does also follow nicely trajectory of Bulgars... from Volga Bulgaria to Crimea, than to south Romania, and today Bulgaria... also spread in Albania can be related as Albania was part of Bulgarian empire for significant time
http://www.euratlas.net/history/europe/900/entity_55.html

better argument against Bulgar origin would be lack of it in Macedonia which was for long under influence of Bulgars...

anyway, really good argument about Mordovin people and their relation to Goths... I2b1 might be Gothic indeed


still, I see as major problem for exclusively Gothic or Bulgarian origin of I2b1 fact that it is present in Asia minor...

I can agree that Goths did pass the borders and also inhabited lands of Byzantium, but I do not believe they went all the way to the Asia minor...


there might have been two or more sources for east Europe... (I do not look at west Europe as there I think it is obviously Germanic in origin as it correlates with spread of I1)


Actually, based on the above map, I2b1 does seem to fit nicely within the Byzantine borders, which ended around the modern border of Romania and Moldova.

not really, as it stretches along east side of Black sea from Istanbul to Crimea, while I think Byzantine borders included always Istanbul, but never Crimea.....

If the I2b1 along the west Black Sea coast is indeed the result of Gothic settlements, it doesn't really matter whether all of it lies inside of outside the boundaries of the Roman/Byzantine Empire. After the Empire crumbled, people were free to move across the former border. .

true...we know that Visigoths lived inside Byzantium teritory e.g. 400 AD following of their displacement by Huns... but likely much before as well...as their tribal name is likely the same as Getae who lived in area during ancient Greece......

but it is a bit hard to believe they actually settled as far as Asia minor in any recent history...

What I mean is that the I2b1 distribution we see today does not represent a fixed moment in history, but everything that happened until today.
Here is what could have happened :
Some of the Goths stayed outside the Roman borders, accounting for the I2b in Moldova and Ukraine.
The Goths defeated the Romans at the Battle of Adrianople, and many decided to settled in Adrianople itself, while others continued their journey west to Italy, Gaul and Iberia. Based on the above map, Thrace (where Adrianople/Edime is located) seems to be a hotspot for I2b1. Cinnioglu et al.'s study of Anatolia confirms the presence of I1 in Thrace, a further indication that the Goths did indeed settle there.
that makes sense... correlation with I1 especially, as I1 is likely to have spread on Balkans east with Goths

From Adrianople, Gothic lineages would have expanded progressively within the boundaries of the Byzantine then Ottoman Empire. Haplogroup tend to spread simply by the natural flow of people who move or marry in the next village, expanding little by little over the course of many centuries. As people tend to marry within their linguistic group, an expansion of these I2b1 lineages within the Romanian/Moldovan-speaking area is to be expected. Eventually the lineages from Adrianople would have reached those who stayed outside the Roman boundaries and met around Moldova.
that's ok...
but I miss proper explanation for presence in certain areas of Asia minor...

reasonable one would be that Getae were same as Goths (Visigoths in fact) and as they inhabited Thrace in times of ancient Greeks, than they likely did in some time in ancient history also live in certain parts of Asia minor...
 

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