I-CTS10228 Dinaric subclades and distribution

Milan.M

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I found out that some subclades of I-CTS10228 for right now can be found only more northern countries and among North Slavs like I-Y4460 ,and some among both South and North Slavs like I-Z17855 and I-S17250,there is subclade found in Greece called the Mediteranean cluster I-A2512 and under it I-Y23115 call the Jewish diaspora cluster called so by I-P37.2 haplogroup research.


I-S17250 perhaps a major branch found among South,North Slavs and their neighbors.
I-Y4460 found among North Slavs,Balts,Finns etc
I-Z17855 found among South,North Slavs and their neighbors.
I-A2512 found among some Greeks and some further subclades of it among Jewish diaspora.
 
I2a1b2 L621+ 6.8-5kya,
formed 11300, TMRCA 6500

The high concentration of I2a1b-L621 in north-east Romania, Moldova and central Ukraine reminds of the maximum spread of the Cucuteni-Trypillian culture (4800-3000 BCE) before it was swallowed by the Indo-European Corded Ware culture. Ancient Dacians, Thracians, Illyrians

I2a1b2a1a S17250– TMRCA 2100

The higher percentage of I2a-Din in the south is probably just due to another founder effect due to the fact that the South Slavs originated in western Ukraine, where the ratio of I2a to R1a was higher. Virtually all Dinaric I2a falls under the CTS10228 (aka CTS5966 or L147.2) subclade, and the majority to the S17250 ramification, who descend from a common patrilinear ancestor who lived only 1,800 years ago.

I2a1b2a1b Y4460+ TMRCA 2200

Most modern Eastern Europeans belonging to I2a1b fit into the L147.2 (aka CTS10228, CTS2180 or Y3111) subclade, which is thought to have arisen 5,600 years ago (just before the Yamna period and the Trypillian expansion into the steppe), but has a TMRCA of only 2300 years according to Yfull. The minority of I2a1b-L621 individuals negative for L147.2 are all found around eastern Poland, Belarus and western Ukraine, suggesting that this is where this lineage survived since the Chalcolithic. The I2a1b-L147.2 subclade seems to have expanded very fast from 1900 years ago, which is concordant with the timing of the Slavic ethnogenesis, considering that it takes a few centuries before one man can have enough male descendants to start having an impact at the scale of a (small but fast-growing) population.

I2a1b2a1c Z17855– TMRCA 1650 Age: 1626 ybp.

YFULL reported locations of tested people: UKR. Based on map by Krzysztow most of tested people are from Balkan countires (Bulgaria, Macedonia, Romania, Bosnia, Croatia).

I2a1b2a1d A2512– TMRCA 2100 Age: 2029 ybp.

Not tested by FTDNA. Tested with YSEQ, Negative C-. Current locations of tested people: UKR+BLR
 
More info can be found on website lundiak.wordpress/I2a1b2a1

I am new user cant post link.
 
My guess this Haplogroup I2A-DIN developed around Danube basin, there is no reason to assume it was north of this location
 
I found out that some subclades of I-CTS10228 for right now can be found only more northern countries and among North Slavs like I-Y4460 ,and some among both South and North Slavs like I-Z17855 and I-S17250,there is subclade found in Greece called the Mediteranean cluster I-A2512 and under it I-Y23115 call the Jewish diaspora cluster called so by I-P37.2 haplogroup research.


I-S17250 perhaps a major branch found among South,North Slavs and their neighbors.
I-Y4460 found among North Slavs,Balts,Finns etc
I-Z17855 found among South,North Slavs and their neighbors.
I-A2512 found among some Greeks and some further subclades of it among Jewish diaspora.

Mutation I-S17250 is White Croatian origin.

http://www.waughfamily.ca/Ancient/Tree and Map for Hg I.pdf

So far, most or all of those who are negative for S17250 have patrilineage
originating near the Carpathians, particularly southeastern Poland and
extreme western Ukraine. That pattern may change with more sampling, of
course Date: 20 May 2014.


http://archiver.rootsweb.ancestry.com/th/read/Y-DNA-HAPLOGROUP-I/2014-05/1400615460


Russian geneticist I. Rozhansky says:
2013/10/18 translation from Russian ...
Croats haplogroup R1a is represented almost exclusively by the Central Eurasian subclade Z280 (as in Eastern Slavs and Carpathians). And Croats, Slovenians, and as, most likely, Serbs dominate several branches of that have common mark of the Sneap CTS3402. the geography of these branches is such that it is possible to trace its path from the Carpathian side to the Adriatic. The same can be said about the "Dinarides" subsidiary subclades I2a1b. Obviously, White Croats and Croats from the Carpathians to the Adriatic are really close peoples. The Serbs and Danubian Serbs can not say so - they are too different in the line ..

http://pereformat.ru/2013/10/kolybel-evropejskoj-civilizacii/
 
[h=3]Y-chromosome STR variation in Ukrainian populations[/h]Unfortunately, Y-STR haplotypes of Ukrainians used in this scientific paper are not available or I have not been able to find it.
Dissertation of the author is available on the following link:
“Генофонд українців за різними системами генетичних маркерів: походження і місце на європейському генетичному просторі”

Text about I2a-P37.2 could be found here from 23. page: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1bUIW1YACgZYlJGZWlNd25xTkU/view
The paper is written in Russian, as someone with the Slavic background I can understand most of it (sometimes wrongly:)), I am so sorry that some people probably would not be able to read.
The author suggests the origin of this HG in Ukraine (between Carpathian and Dnieper river or Polesie, where is observed the highest diversity of haplotypes). Most (if not almost all) of Balkan and East European I-P37.2 belong to I-CTS10228 so this can apply only to this haplogroup .
It is not written much about the division of I-CTS10228, except that Olga (author) mentioned division based on STR marker DYS448, already known as Dinaric South and Dinaric North. She has called DYS448=19 "Balkan cluster" and DYS448=20 "Dniepr-Carpathian cluster", because of the fact that all older subclades of I-P37 have DYS448=20 she also supposed that DYS448=19 haplotypes belong to the younger subbranch.
According to her research, haplotypes with DYS448=19 are dominant in the Balkans (among South Slavs), except Greece (where DYS448=20 is prevalent), and Bulgarians are in the middle, and among West and East Slavs haplotypes with DYS448=20 are dominant.
She found a low diversity of DYS448=19 haplotypes in Western Balkan (Bosnia and Hercegovina) and supposed that high percentages there are due to founder effect.
More then a year ago I wrote to the author and asked for haplotypes from the research, I was informed that it will be public after the completion of a research.
She provided maps of frequencies and diversity for both clusters (page 26), maps are not of good quality but we can recognise regions and density colours:


I have not checked all references used in paper and computations, plan to do it as soon as have free time, also I have not seen haplotypes of Ukrainians. Anyway, I will write some comments here:
-High percentages of DYS448=19 or I-PH908 in Hercegovina and Dalmatia, between 35%-60%, might really be due to founder effect and expansion on sheperd tribes. What we do not know is the time period when the expansion started, e.g. is it 1000, 1500 or more years ago. There are some methods for calculation of TMRCA, but no one can give the precise answer, and there are many subclades of PH908 which might have different expansion rates and migration routes.
- Many of Balkan haplotypes of I-PH908 from Bulgaria, Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro, B&H and Croatia look similar and probably belong to same subclades.
-Many, if not all, known subclades of PH908 found in the Balkan are present north of the Danube, especially in Ukraine, only percentages are different.
- Maps show high variability of DYS448=19 in Dniester basin, Dnieper Basin and especially in Polesia and Belarus. I have not seen haplotypes from her research and can not make the final conclusion. According to my database, there might really be a high diversity of DYS448=19 in Dniester Basin, while for Belarus I am not sure. I-PH908 is more frequent in Western Belarus than in Central, East and North of the country where it is almost non-existent. Also, it is more frequent in Western than Eastern part of Ukraine. In my opinion, higher dispersion and diversity of I-PH908 in this region follow basins of four rivers: Dniester, Western Bug, Neman and Wisla in Poland. Of course, it is present everywhere among East and West Slavs, but these basins look especially important.

-Dinaric north or DYS448=20 or more, have several subclades, the most numerous are I-S17250 and I-Y4460, I-Z17855 and I-Y18331 pretty less (all are under I-CTS10228>>Y3120) plus we have one I-CTS10228* and two I-Y3120*results.
Dinaric south or I-PH908 is the subclade of I-S17250, so together they made up more than 50% of all I-CTS10228, according to data from FTDna it seems that both parts of I-S17250 (DYS448=19 and 20) started their expansion in Western Ukraine.
I-Y4460 very likely started its expansion eastern of I-S17250 in Dnieper Basin.
- Greece really has the high diversity of Dinaric north as shown on the map, the most common subclade is I-Y18331 or its branch named I-A2512. It made us about 50% of results from Greece, S17250, Z17855 and Y4460 are on the second, third place and fourth place. Both subclades of I-S17250 are present, Dinaric south about 2% or 20% in all I-CTS10228. The average percentage of I-CTS10228 for Greece is about 10%, except for the Epirus where was observed at more than 30% (n=32).
-I would like to add that Bulgaria has very diverse I-CTS10228 haplotypes, ratio DYS448=19/20 is about 50/50 (as mentioned in the paper) and 20% in the overall country sample, and both clusters are very diverse. The most common subclade among Dinaric north is I-Z17855 (more than 50% of Dinaric north), also I-S17250 (Z16971 and Y4882) and Y4460 have been observed.
I-Ph908 is present with about 10% or 50% of all I-CTS10228 Bulgarian results. For now, at least 10 subclades of I-Ph908 have been identified, very likely there are more than 20.
Maps do not show the diversity of any cluster in Bulgaria.
In general, I-PH908 made up about 25%-30% of all I-CTS10228, from Big Y results we know for existence of more than 20 subclades, most of them are observed only once and have *(star) sign.

I hope haplotypes from the dissertation will be available soon.
 
Nice find Vlad. I've been interested in the distribution frequency and diversity of Slavic subclades for a while, but didn't think to search for non-English sources. Do you have anything similar for the Slavic subclades of R1a? I'm especially interested to know if there are any subclades that are more Western Balkanic and other that are more Eastern.

As for I2a, it seems that Greece got most of its Slavic ancestry from the very early waves of Slavic settlers, while ex-Yugoslavia was settled, or re-settled, by later ones. Bulgaria and Macedonia are less clear.
 
High percentages of DYS448=19 or I-PH908 in Hercegovina and Dalmatia, between 35%-60%, might really be due to founder effect

It should be so,

and expansion on sheperd tribes.

but this is not true, sheperd tribes also have other haplotypes, E1b, J2, R1b, R1a.

Sheperd tribes from the historical point of view are the Vlachs, but that DYS448=19 or I-PH908 in Herzegovina and Dalmatia is originally Croatian origin. First, it is original White Croatian subclade, second, if Croats in Dalmatia and Herzegovina have I2a up to 70% and large part is I-PH908 then they can not be sheperd tribes, sheperd tribes have mixed genetic.

I have already explained possible reason why Croats have such a high percentage of I2a, that's because Croats as Catholics in the Turkish period do not mix with Orthodox Vlachs (sheperd tribes) and Muslims (Bosniaks) and large part of Croats crosses into these groups or is assimilated.

This is actually genetics of Croats before arrival of the Turks to the Balkans. They did not mix with anyone and that's why I2a grew up in Croatian community.

Second reason is that from these areas (interior of Dalmatia and Herzegovina) Croats crossing to the islands and there are also mixed among themselves which means that Croats in the Turkish area remain isolated in Turkish territory and same isolation was made in Croatia, on the islands.

What we do not know is the time period when the expansion started, e.g. is it 1000, 1500 or more years ago. There are some methods for calculation of TMRCA, but no one can give the precise answer,

When this is established then we will see if my theory is correct.

and there are many subclades of PH908 which might have different expansion rates and migration routes.

For now I know that great part of Serbs from Dinaric areas are settled in Serbia, Vojvodina.

Many of Balkan haplotypes of I-PH908 from Bulgaria, Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro, B&H and Croatia look similar and probably belong to same subclades.
All of them have a common ancestor I-S17250 or they come from White Croatia. In the future we will see local migrations in the Balkans and then we'll be smarter.

Also, it is more frequent in Western than Eastern part of Ukraine. In my opinion, higher dispersion and diversity of I-PH908 in this region follow basins of four rivers: Dniester, Western Bug, Neman and Wisla in Poland.

according to data from FTDna it seems that both parts of I-S17250 (DYS448=19 and 20) started their expansion in Western Ukraine.

Stiljsko is village in the Lviv region (Mikolajivski region) near Lviv in Ukraine. The archaeological site in this place has great significance for exploring the history and life of White Croats.

That subclade I-S17250 should be White Croatian mutation, for now.



https://hr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stiljsko

Dinaric south or I-PH908 is the subclade of I-S17250, so together they made up more than 50% of all I-CTS10228,

de administrando imperio

Where their neighbor is Francia, as well as great Croatia.

Historical records mention a great Croatia which proves that many people lived there and most likely many people migrate from there to Balkans and elsewhere.





Greece really has the high diversity of Dinaric north as shown on the map, the most common subclade is I-Y18331 or its branch named I-A2512. It made us about 50% of results from Greece, S17250, Z17855 and Y4460 are on the second, third place and fourth place.


Croatian name in the toponym was also confirmed in Ohrid, Prespan and Bitola (Macedonia), near the Marathon Field and not far from Micen in Greece.

It is possible that this toponym come to Macedonia and Greece with White Croats (S17250)
 
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A diversity of S17250 in Western Ukraine and its spreading show a high correlation with the expansion of Slavs from Prague Korchak culture. There are at least 50 Medieval Slavic tribes that could be connected to this culture.


Slavs from this culture from Western Ukraine migrated towards Balkan using routes of outer Carpathians, to East and Central Balkan via Moldova and Wallachia down to Greece, and to West Balkan via South Poland Slovakia and Western Pannonia down to the Adriatic Sea.
It is not clear what were ratios of R1a (especially Z280) and I-CTS10228 (South/North) among tribes from Korchak area. We should wait for more results to be able to identify it, anyway it seems that group who travelled Eastward to Central Balkan had a higher ratio of Dinaric South than Dinaric North; while the group from Slovakia, South Poland and West Balkan and West Pannonia had more Dinaric North . This conclusion is based on the current situation; it does not mean that 1500 years ago we had exactly the same situation, some subclades can have a higher rate of expansion than others.
Primarily, here I think on expansion on I-PH908 in Central and Western Balkan at a much higher rate than Dinaric North and R1a subclades. There are also similar examples in other HG’s as well, but more locally (do not cover such a big territory).
Medieval shepherds groups called Vlach are phenomena that appeared in late middle age, and it is not clear if they and how much are connected with Pre-Slavic population. Some authors consider them non-Slavic mostly because their main occupation was transhumance which was not common for the rest of the Slavs who were mostly agricultural society. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transhumance and some Romance name of their leaders and katuns.
While other authors think, they were Slavic or a mix of Slavic and Non-Slavic population. Nothing is clear about the area of their origin or language they spoke(probably Slavic, some think they were bilingual).
There is no other HG in Balkans that match described dispersion and migrations of Medieval Vlach as I-PH908 does.
Western Bulgaria, Western Wallachia, East Serbia, Dinaric Alps, rest of Bosnia and Croatia. All regions are characterized by dominance of I-PH908 or DYS448=19, and all are common for shepherd groups mentioned in historical sources.
Historical sources have plenty of references that mentioned Vlach tribes in Dinaric Alps, I would mention some of them which first come to my mind: Ozrinitsi, Niksitsi, Pilatovtsi, Zubtsi, Burmazi, Morlaks, Bunjevtsi, Ridjani, Hrabreni etc. As I know their descendant have been tested as I-PH908.
For example subbranch of I-PH908 with a distinctive value DYS19=14 made up about 10% of all I-PH908 results from Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, in Croatian part of Hercegovina probably even more, according to STR calculations and two Big Y results tested people on Western Balkan have TMRCA about 1000 years ago. Haplotypes with this values DYS19=14 and DYS448=19 are also observed in Macedonia, Greek Macedonia, Bulgaria, Romania, North Moldova and Poland (Northeast and Souteast) at lower frequencies. Other example is DYS448=18 that made up about 5-6% of 404 tested people from Montenegro in a scientific study or 25% of Dinaric south, results belong to Ozrinitsi cluster with a known common ancestor in late middle ages. There will be more such examples as we get more results.
Aren’t this examples of a recent expansion of shepherd tribes?

I have not invented Medieval Vlach expansion in Dinaric Alps, there are plenty of text about it on internet and scientific researches, unfortunately without the answer about the origin of the groups or if they were locals there or penetrate the area after expansion of Medieval Bosnian state. Here is one paper about it: https://hrcak.srce.hr/81281
It is a good question how and when I-PH908 bearers (or only part of them) acquired Transhumance as the main occupation, whether or Balkans or somewhere else. For Slavs it is uncommon, most of Slavs were an agricultural society with only domestic animals around their homes, except the group of the Slavs that lived in Carpathian region of Western Ukraine. From that region, most of them moved to Balkans during great Migration.


There are also many theories about the origin of Croats, the time of arrival on Balkan and area where they lived before migrations. Before Dalmatia, some historians think they were in Carantania or Avar Khaganate, other place them in North Bohemia and Southern Poland as a West Slavic Tribe. While many of Russian historians consider them as an East Slavic tribe that originated in Prycarpathia.
As I remember Russian archaeologists link expansion of White Croats with “The Carpathian Tumuli culture” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carpathian_Tumuli_culture and appearance of burials with Kurgans on West Slavic territories:


Non-Russian archaeologist do not agree and link this culture to Dacian influence on Early Slavs.
As for everything else, modern history and archaeology give us many different answers on questions about the origin of the Croats. Also, I have to mention the opinion of famous American historian John V. A. Fine that Croats were just a small ruling elite and did not leave large genetic influence:
https://www.amazon.com/When-Ethnicity-Matter-Balkans-Pre-Nationalist/dp/047211414X
If White Croats had I-S17250 they might spread only a small part of it or a part of I-PH908, most of tested I-S17250 probably have no any connection with White Croats but very likely to a larger group of Slavs bearers of Prague-Korchak culture, in some sources called Sclavini.

Anyway, if someone has a good map of “Croat” toponyms (or just a list) in Slovenia, Austria, CZ, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Greece etc. it would be nice to post it on the Forum.
It is not the question only about Croats, it is same with origins of Medieval Serbs and Bulgarians and their real genetic influence. We know that they were three the most important Slavic states in the past, but also know that they were three tribes among at least 30-40 other Slavic plus non-Slavic tribes that were assimilated by them.
Only Archeogenetics/Ancient DNA can give us some (partial) answers, before it we can only guess Y-dna.

Also, I have to mention that there were several penetrations of Balkan from North Carpathians and Western Ukraine before Slavs and some sublclades might came a bit earlier not only A2512, e.g.

  1. Costoboci https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Costoboci, they reached Greece in a large number and might be linked to Y18331/A2512, or maybe Goths who also were in South Greece. Only what is missed for such links is Y18331/A2512 in North Carpathians or somewhere in Ukraine. Except for a younger branch of A2512 among Chuvash, no one else on the North was confirmed to belong to this branch. So, it might came to Greece even from Pannonia. Someone who knows the history of Peloponnese and surrounding areas might suggest possible migrations between 5 B.C – 5. A.C.
  2. Carpi https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carpi_(people)
  3. Bastarnae, some of them were settled in Trakia and Dardania https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bastarnae
  4. Huns, among them, were many other subjugated tribes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huns
  5. And others
There are many people on Forums who think that part of I-PH908 and I-Z17855 came with some Pre-Slavic migrations. Of course, there is no right answer now so we must respect and take in consideration every opinion.
 
Nice find Vlad. I've been interested in the distribution frequency and diversity of Slavic subclades for a while but didn't think to search for non-English sources. Do you have anything similar for the Slavic subclades of R1a? I'm especially interested to know if there are any subclades that are more Western Balkanic and other that are more Eastern.

As for I2a, it seems that Greece got most of its Slavic ancestry from the very early waves of Slavic settlers, while ex-Yugoslavia was settled, or re-settled, by later ones. Bulgaria and Macedonia are less clear.

Thank you!
Unfortunately, I have no good maps of R1a subclades.
There are some differences from Western on one side and Central/East Balkan on the other side.
First of all Western and Nothern Croatia have higher percentages of R1a than I-CTS10228 and a higher ratio of Dinaric North among I-CTS10228.
Most of their Dinaric North is S17250, but in Slovenia we have also confirmed I-Y4460 results.
On the Eastern/Central/South Balkan we have more diversity (but more tested people, too) of I-CTS10228, the most common subclade of Dinaric North in Central and Eastern Balkan is I-Z17855 which is very rare in Croatia, as I know only two Croats (one of them Bunjevac from Serbia, other unknown location) and several Serbs from Croatia were confirmed positive. In general, I-Z17855 is rare there.
Sublcades of R1-Z280/Y2613 is very frequent in Western Croatia, Slovenia and Alps, while it is very rare on Central or Eastern Balkan. R-M458/L260 is more common for West Balkan, too.
I am not an expert for R1a (actually I know very little about it) and general for Genetic Genealogy and history, but it seems that in West Balkan we have more influence of migration from Western Slavic countries and Western Pannonia (West of Danube) while in Central and Eastern Balkan we have more influence of migrations from Eastern Pannonia (East Avoro Slavs - East of Danube) and territory of nowadays Romania. Bosnia and Hercegovina is a mixed representation of both waves (or better to say several waves).
Also worth mentioned that there are some areas in Trakia, South Peloponnese, Croatian Island and East Tyrol (Slavs who came from West Pannonia) with almost all R1a and very little I-CTS10228). Upper Sorbs from Lusatia (Germany) that according to archaeology should be descendants of AvaroSlavs from Western Panonnia are almost exclusively R1a. West Pannonia and West Balkan were settled by at least two group of Slavs, from North (Poland) and East (Western Ukraine), and maybe a slight influence of AvaroSlavs east of Danube.
There are also some rare branches of R-M458 on Central and EastBalkan (branch of Dibran and R1a-M458/A11460)
I think a lot of R-M458 on Central and East Balkan belong to R-M458/1029 with many YP417.
R-Z280/YP4278 is very rare, almost absent on West Bakan but present on Central and East.
I do not follow R1a results, please do not take this for granted, probably people who belong to R1a and research their HG can explain the situation better.
 
A diversity of S17250 in Western Ukraine and its spreading show a high correlation with the expansion of Slavs from Prague Korchak culture. There are at least 50 Medieval Slavic tribes that could be connected to this culture.


Slavs from this culture from Western Ukraine migrated towards Balkan using routes of outer Carpathians, to East and Central Balkan via Moldova and Wallachia down to Greece, and to West Balkan via South Poland Slovakia and Western Pannonia down to the Adriatic Sea.
It is not clear what were ratios of R1a (especially Z280) and I-CTS10228 (South/North) among tribes from Korchak area. We should wait for more results to be able to identify it, anyway it seems that group who travelled Eastward to Central Balkan had a higher ratio of Dinaric South than Dinaric North; while the group from Slovakia, South Poland and West Balkan and West Pannonia had more Dinaric North . This conclusion is based on the current situation; it does not mean that 1500 years ago we had exactly the same situation, some subclades can have a higher rate of expansion than others.
Primarily, here I think on expansion on I-PH908 in Central and Western Balkan at a much higher rate than Dinaric North and R1a subclades. There are also similar examples in other HG’s as well, but more locally (do not cover such a big territory).
Medieval shepherds groups called Vlach are phenomena that appeared in late middle age, and it is not clear if they and how much are connected with Pre-Slavic population. Some authors consider them non-Slavic mostly because their main occupation was transhumance which was not common for the rest of the Slavs who were mostly agricultural society. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transhumance and some Romance name of their leaders and katuns.
While other authors think, they were Slavic or a mix of Slavic and Non-Slavic population. Nothing is clear about the area of their origin or language they spoke(probably Slavic, some think they were bilingual).
There is no other HG in Balkans that match described dispersion and migrations of Medieval Vlach as I-PH908 does.
Western Bulgaria, Western Wallachia, East Serbia, Dinaric Alps, rest of Bosnia and Croatia. All regions are characterized by dominance of I-PH908 or DYS448=19, and all are common for shepherd groups mentioned in historical sources.
Historical sources have plenty of references that mentioned Vlach tribes in Dinaric Alps, I would mention some of them which first come to my mind: Ozrinitsi, Niksitsi, Pilatovtsi, Zubtsi, Burmazi, Morlaks, Bunjevtsi, Ridjani, Hrabreni etc. As I know their descendant have been tested as I-PH908.
For example subbranch of I-PH908 with a distinctive value DYS19=14 made up about 10% of all I-PH908 results from Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, in Croatian part of Hercegovina probably even more, according to STR calculations and two Big Y results tested people on Western Balkan have TMRCA about 1000 years ago. Haplotypes with this values DYS19=14 and DYS448=19 are also observed in Macedonia, Greek Macedonia, Bulgaria, Romania, North Moldova and Poland (Northeast and Souteast) at lower frequencies. Other example is DYS448=18 that made up about 5-6% of 404 tested people from Montenegro in a scientific study or 25% of Dinaric south, results belong to Ozrinitsi cluster with a known common ancestor in late middle ages. There will be more such examples as we get more results.
Aren’t this examples of a recent expansion of shepherd tribes?

I have not invented Medieval Vlach expansion in Dinaric Alps, there are plenty of text about it on internet and scientific researches, unfortunately without the answer about the origin of the groups or if they were locals there or penetrate the area after expansion of Medieval Bosnian state. Here is one paper about it: https://hrcak.srce.hr/81281
It is a good question how and when I-PH908 bearers (or only part of them) acquired Transhumance as the main occupation, whether or Balkans or somewhere else. For Slavs it is uncommon, most of Slavs were an agricultural society with only domestic animals around their homes, except the group of the Slavs that lived in Carpathian region of Western Ukraine. From that region, most of them moved to Balkans during great Migration.


There are also many theories about the origin of Croats, the time of arrival on Balkan and area where they lived before migrations. Before Dalmatia, some historians think they were in Carantania or Avar Khaganate, other place them in North Bohemia and Southern Poland as a West Slavic Tribe. While many of Russian historians consider them as an East Slavic tribe that originated in Prycarpathia.
As I remember Russian archaeologists link expansion of White Croats with “The Carpathian Tumuli culture” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carpathian_Tumuli_culture and appearance of burials with Kurgans on West Slavic territories:


Non-Russian archaeologist do not agree and link this culture to Dacian influence on Early Slavs.
As for everything else, modern history and archaeology give us many different answers on questions about the origin of the Croats. Also, I have to mention the opinion of famous American historian John V. A. Fine that Croats were just a small ruling elite and did not leave large genetic influence:
https://www.amazon.com/When-Ethnicity-Matter-Balkans-Pre-Nationalist/dp/047211414X
If White Croats had I-S17250 they might spread only a small part of it or a part of I-PH908, most of tested I-S17250 probably have no any connection with White Croats but very likely to a larger group of Slavs bearers of Prague-Korchak culture, in some sources called Sclavini.

Anyway, if someone has a good map of “Croat” toponyms (or just a list) in Slovenia, Austria, CZ, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Greece etc. it would be nice to post it on the Forum.
It is not the question only about Croats, it is same with origins of Medieval Serbs and Bulgarians and their real genetic influence. We know that they were three the most important Slavic states in the past, but also know that they were three tribes among at least 30-40 other Slavic plus non-Slavic tribes that were assimilated by them.
Only Archeogenetics/Ancient DNA can give us some (partial) answers, before it we can only guess Y-dna.

Also, I have to mention that there were several penetrations of Balkan from North Carpathians and Western Ukraine before Slavs and some sublclades might came a bit earlier not only A2512, e.g.

  1. Costoboci https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Costoboci, they reached Greece in a large number and might be linked to Y18331/A2512, or maybe Goths who also were in South Greece. Only what is missed for such links is Y18331/A2512 in North Carpathians or somewhere in Ukraine. Except for a younger branch of A2512 among Chuvash, no one else on the North was confirmed to belong to this branch. So, it might came to Greece even from Pannonia. Someone who knows the history of Peloponnese and surrounding areas might suggest possible migrations between 5 B.C – 5. A.C.
  2. Carpi https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carpi_(people)
  3. Bastarnae, some of them were settled in Trakia and Dardania https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bastarnae
  4. Huns, among them, were many other subjugated tribes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huns
  5. And others
There are many people on Forums who think that part of I-PH908 and I-Z17855 came with some Pre-Slavic migrations. Of course, there is no right answer now so we must respect and take in consideration every opinion.

Very interesting given that I-CTS10228 IS MY YDNA


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There are at least 50 Medieval Slavic tribes that could be connected to this culture.

How many haplotypes and branches could be connected to this culture?


There is no other HG in Balkans that match described dispersion and migrations of Medieval Vlach as I-PH908 does.


Original Vlachs are not I-PH908, that they have this subclade of I2a then they would not come with Slavs, Croats to the Balkans.

Vlachs genetic

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aromanians#Genetic_studies

Whether the Vlachs assimilated some Croatian tribes does not mean that I-PH908 or other subclades are original Vlach subclades.

Western Bulgaria, Western Wallachia, East Serbia, Dinaric Alps, rest of Bosnia and Croatia. All regions are characterized by dominance of I-PH908 or DYS448=19,

Porfirogenet suggests that Croats inhabit Illyria, Dalmatia and Pannonia.

This map shows migration from White Croatia to more directions.

http://www.waughfamily.ca/Ancient/Tree and Map for Hg I.pdf

and all are common for shepherd groups mentioned in historical sources.

Shepherd groups do not have one or two haplotype, for that you do not need any other proof than the logic. Whether they later had been called as Vlachs is another matter.


Historical sources have plenty of references that mentioned Vlach tribes in Dinaric Alps, I would mention some of them which first come to my mind: Ozrinitsi, Niksitsi, Pilatovtsi, Zubtsi, Burmazi, Morlaks, Bunjevtsi, Ridjani, Hrabreni etc. As I know their descendant have been tested as I-PH908.

It has nothing to do with the original settlers. There is assimilation on all sides.

For example subbranch of I-PH908 with a distinctive value DYS19=14 made up about 10% of all I-PH908 results from Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, in Croatian part of Hercegovina probably even more, according to STR calculations and two Big Y results tested people on Western Balkan have TMRCA about 1000 years ago. Haplotypes with this values DYS19=14 and DYS448=19 are also observed in Macedonia, Greek Macedonia, Bulgaria, Romania, North Moldova and Poland (Northeast and Souteast) at lower frequencies. Other example is DYS448=18 that made up about 5-6% of 404 tested people from Montenegro in a scientific study or 25% of Dinaric south, results belong to Ozrinitsi cluster with a known common ancestor in late middle ages. There will be more such examples as we get more results.
Aren’t this examples of a recent expansion of shepherd tribes?

What it has to do with original Vlachs?

I have not invented Medieval Vlach expansion in Dinaric Alps, there are plenty of text about it on internet and scientific researches, unfortunately without the answer about the origin of the groups or if they were locals there or penetrate the area after expansion of Medieval Bosnian state. Here is one paper about it:

Mehmed Zilli (25 March 1611 – 1682), known as Evliya Çelebi (Ottoman Turkish: اوليا چلبى‎), was an Ottoman explorer who travelled through the territory of the Ottoman Empire and neighboring lands ...

Evliya Çelebi travels through Dalmatia and does not see Vlachs, but he see Croats.

Mehmed-paša Sokolović, the great vizier of the Ottoman Empire, gives the Order in 1566....in Budim, Timisoara and Dubrovnik from all Croatian people do not ask for charity if this people belong to the Greek patriarch.

etc..etc..


There are also many theories about the origin of Croats, the time of arrival on Balkan and area where they lived before migrations. Before Dalmatia, some historians think they were in Carantania or Avar Khaganate, other place them in North Bohemia and Southern Poland as a West Slavic Tribe. While many of Russian historians consider them as an East Slavic tribe that originated in Prycarpathia.

For now genetics says that Croatians coming from southeastern Poland and southwestern Ukraine, maybe it could change in the future, this is for now.

As I remember Russian archaeologists link expansion of White Croats with “The Carpathian Tumuli culture”

He has Croatian genetics and now is the right time to prove it.


John V. A. Fine that Croats were just a small ruling elite and did not leave large genetic influence:

He has Croatian genetics and now is the right time to prove it.

If White Croats had I-S17250 they might spread only a small part of it or a part of I-PH908, most of tested I-S17250 probably have no any connection with White Croats but very likely to a larger group of Slavs bearers of Prague-Korchak culture, in some sources called Sclavini.

The son has nothing to do with his father?

Anyway, if someone has a good map of “Croat” toponyms (or just a list) in Slovenia, Austria, CZ, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Greece etc. it would be nice to post it on the Forum.

I have this but in Croatian

http://www.kapitaltrade.hr/wp-content/uploads/Toponimi-s-Karpata.jpg

https://hrcak.srce.hr/171401

It is not the question only about Croats, it is same with origins of Medieval Serbs and Bulgarians and their real genetic

Problem is that genetics proves historical records only for Croatian migration to Roman Dalmatia.

There are many people on Forums who think that part of I-PH908 and I-Z17855 came with some Pre-Slavic migrations. Of course, there is no right answer now so we must respect and take in consideration every opinion.

If genetics says this in the future then this will be fact which we will respect
and based on this make different conclusions.
 
I think some forget that these tribes minimally and en mass were migrating to the Balkans for some 1500-1600 odd years now. That is more than enough time for lines to change hands through various cultures. I suppose its all dependent on matches. Some early Sklavenoi tribes, especially in Greece and Albania, were assimilated by the Byzantines, and could have likely moved with Vlachs rather than directly with Slavs. The proportion for instance of Slavic YDNA in Albania proper is higher than the autosomal impact of Slavic DNA. some of it could be due to indirect assimilation. Changing hands from Proto-Slavic, to Latin speak Vlach to Albanian or Greek etc.

Most of the arguments on the web are conjecture, which is why you never see major genetics corporation dabbling in this sort of drivel. It is simply too early to make broad generalizations.
 
Thank you!
Unfortunately, I have no good maps of R1a subclades.
There are some differences from Western on one side and Central/East Balkan on the other side.
First of all Western and Nothern Croatia have higher percentages of R1a than I-CTS10228 and a higher ratio of Dinaric North among I-CTS10228.
Most of their Dinaric North is S17250, but in Slovenia we have also confirmed I-Y4460 results.
On the Eastern/Central/South Balkan we have more diversity (but more tested people, too) of I-CTS10228, the most common subclade of Dinaric North in Central and Eastern Balkan is I-Z17855 which is very rare in Croatia, as I know only two Croats (one of them Bunjevac from Serbia, other unknown location) and several Serbs from Croatia were confirmed positive. In general, I-Z17855 is rare there.
Sublcades of R1-Z280/Y2613 is very frequent in Western Croatia, Slovenia and Alps, while it is very rare on Central or Eastern Balkan. R-M458/L260 is more common for West Balkan, too.
I am not an expert for R1a (actually I know very little about it) and general for Genetic Genealogy and history, but it seems that in West Balkan we have more influence of migration from Western Slavic countries and Western Pannonia (West of Danube) while in Central and Eastern Balkan we have more influence of migrations from Eastern Pannonia (East Avoro Slavs - East of Danube) and territory of nowadays Romania. Bosnia and Hercegovina is a mixed representation of both waves (or better to say several waves).
Also worth mentioned that there are some areas in Trakia, South Peloponnese, Croatian Island and East Tyrol (Slavs who came from West Pannonia) with almost all R1a and very little I-CTS10228). Upper Sorbs from Lusatia (Germany) that according to archaeology should be descendants of AvaroSlavs from Western Panonnia are almost exclusively R1a. West Pannonia and West Balkan were settled by at least two group of Slavs, from North (Poland) and East (Western Ukraine), and maybe a slight influence of AvaroSlavs east of Danube.
There are also some rare branches of R-M458 on Central and EastBalkan (branch of Dibran and R1a-M458/A11460)
I think a lot of R-M458 on Central and East Balkan belong to R-M458/1029 with many YP417.
R-Z280/YP4278 is very rare, almost absent on West Bakan but present on Central and East.
I do not follow R1a results, please do not take this for granted, probably people who belong to R1a and research their HG can explain the situation better.


Just a correction, I am not A11460. I believe the Polish user Rethel is that clade(if I am not mistaken). I actually turned out L1029* basal. After testing my novel SNPs on 2 matches. They are both positive for Y333183. This sub-clade is a 'Albanian' founder effect. So far 2 confirmed Albanian with origin from Diber(both in Albania and Macedonia). 2 other Albanians from the Boattini 2015 study, one Gheg one Tosk also have matching STRs and are likely part of this cluster. Another Albanian from Gostivar who is L1029 is testing now to confirm if he is part of the cluster. As well as 2 additional Albanians that may or may not be matches(given some oral history associated with these testers). All in all if they test positive as well, that will be a total of 7 Albanian families that are part of this founder effect under L1029. I didn't test all my novels, but of the ones I tested, current TMRCA between all the Albanian matches and myself is 1100ypb. If this turns out to be correct once all is said and done, I would assume it was assimilated with the first Bulgarian Empire, if not earlier assimilation of Avaro-Slavic tribes into Byzantines before changing hands into Albanian clans.

basal L1029 is not too common in the Balkans, but it has been found in Bulgarians, Romanians, Macedonians and Greeks. Most of East Balkan L1029 is YP417 as you have stated. I have one or 2 matches(albeit 2000-2300ypb) that are YP417 from Bulgaria. Y333183 likely splits L1029 forming a new branch so far specific to Albanians. Perhaps its one of the first Proto-Slavic waves that were assimilated early on and then flourished in Albanian clans.

I read a study where M458 reaches as high as 25 percent in Nogai, KaraNogai, and Karakalpaks. It reaches roughly 5 percent in Bashkirs, and 20 percent in Adyghe, Shapsug, Dargins, and Lezgins. Given its high percentage in some turkic speaking groups, I hypothesized that it moved with not only Proto-Slavs, but Pannonian Avars and Volga Bulgars. Its suspected that M458 may be an offshoot of Trziniec Culture. This culture was an offshoot of Corded Ware, and its geographical border encompassed the Volga region as well as up to the Ural.

So I think its definitely possible that some M458 in the Balkans and Central Europe are due to Avars, and Volga Bulgars that founded the Bulgarian Empire. It makes sense honestly. Just look where M458 is most common. Everywhere these Polities had dominion. Bulgaria, Romania, Macedonia, South East Serbia, Central Europe etc.

Time will tell of course, but I find it rather asinine to assume all of M458 was locked in the pripyat marshes for all time like some titans caged in tartarus lol. It could very well have expanded out from there in antiquity and moved with these. So in summation I think M458 as far as Balkans is concerned is Bulgars, Avars, Proto-Slavs. Maybe in some rare cases(if such were assimilated very early) a Goth.
 
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How many haplotypes and branches could be connected to this culture?
I am talking about S17250, not sure that other subclades show correlation with Prague-Korchak horizon. I cannot be sure if all S17250 can be linked only to this culture, maybe some subclades entered Penkovka or Sukow-Dziedzice culture. There are not many tested people from the area of the S-D culture, but for example, S17250>>BY128/Y5596 seems to be often in the west part of Poland, Germany, CZ, Western Pannonia. So part of this subclade might earlier migrated towards west.

What it has to do with original Vlachs?
Evliya Çelebi travels through Dalmatia and does not see Vlachs, but he see Croats.

Historical sources from the coastal towns see Vlach and make the difference between them Serbs and Croats. Only their descendants nowadays do not see them. How Vlach saw themselves ethnically nobody knows. What their origin was also nobody knows, if you ask me probably mixed, maybe even they were just a class in like some people suggest.

Problem is that genetics proves historical records only for Croatian migration to Roman Dalmatia.

You are forgetting that Porfirogenit mentioned Croats, Serbs, Zahumlyanians, Travunians and Konavlians in one chapter as separate tribes, while in another chapter last three tribes were mentioned as Serbs or under control of Serbs. He also mentioned Avaro-Slavs who devastated Dalmatia
Byzantium sources mentioned Dacian Slavs crossing the Danube (middle of the six century) approaching Nish were they divided in three big groups, first went to Trace and Marmara Sea, the second moved down Epirus and Peloponnese and the third big group crossed the Illyrian mountains and finished in Dalmatia. In addition to this a historian Moses from Horena, who lived close to that time, wrote that 25 Slavic tribes, which lived to Dacia, moved to Greece and Dalmatia.
Then we had the arrival of the Proto Bulgarians when some Slavic from nowadays East Serbia and West Bulgaria moved toward the west, Timochans to West Serbia and Bosnia, Guduschans to Lika.

Then came Vlach (an exonym for shepherd groups) from late medieval time, and according to some theories they migrated from the Central Balkan to Bosnia and Dinaric Alps.
At the end, Ottoman Turks conquest of the Balkan caused some migration from Central to West Balkan.
What haplogrops did these migrations bring to West Balkan?
You can find the same HGs not only PH908 widespread from Slovenia to Black Sea, and from Aegean to North Carpathians.
How can you figure out what come with all mentioned migrations if you only now that haplogroups like PH908 or I-CTS10228 are 2000 years old, maybe even 3000?
You can also find the same confirmed SNPs on West – Central – East Balkan, and similar haplotypes not deeper tested.
Some not Slavic tribes could also brought I-CTS10228 e.g Goths, Huns, Avars, Bulgarians, like it was found in Medieval Hungarian graves.
So I think it is pointless to argue about Y-dna of Croats or Serbs without Ancient DNA results. It might happen that most of South Slavic tribes had similar mix of Y-dna.
 
Just a correction, I am not A11460. I believe the Polish user Rethel is that clade(if I am not mistaken). I actually turned out L1029* basal. After testing my novel SNPs on 2 matches. They are both positive for Y333183. This sub-clade is a 'Albanian' founder effect. So far 2 confirmed Albanian with origin from Diber(both in Albania and Macedonia). 2 other Albanians from the Boattini 2015 study, one Gheg one Tosk also have matching STRs and are likely part of this cluster. Another Albanian from Gostivar who is L1029 is testing now to confirm if he is part of the cluster. As well as 2 additional Albanians that may or may not be matches(given some oral history associated with these testers). All in all if they test positive as well, that will be a total of 7 Albanian families that are part of this founder effect under L1029. I didn't test all my novels, but of the ones I tested, current TMRCA between all the Albanian matches and myself is 1100ypb. If this turns out to be correct once all is said and done, I would assume it was assimilated with the first Bulgarian Empire, if not earlier assimilation of Avaro-Slavic tribes into Byzantines before changing hands into Albanian clans.

basal L1029 is not too common in the Balkans, but it has been found in Bulgarians, Romanians, Macedonians and Greeks. Most of East Balkan L1029 is YP417 as you have stated. I have one or 2 matches(albeit 2000-2300ypb) that are YP417 from Bulgaria. Y333183 likely splits L1029 forming a new branch so far specific to Albanians. Perhaps its one of the first Proto-Slavic waves that were assimilated early on and then flourished in Albanian clans.

I read a study where M458 reaches as high as 25 percent in Nogai, KaraNogai, and Karakalpaks. It reaches roughly 5 percent in Bashkirs, and 20 percent in Adyghe, Shapsug, Dargins, and Lezgins. Given its high percentage in some turkic speaking groups, I hypothesized that it moved with not only Proto-Slavs, but Pannonian Avars and Volga Bulgars. Its suspected that M458 may be an offshoot of Trziniec Culture. This culture was an offshoot of Corded Ware, and its geographical border encompassed the Volga region as well as up to the Ural.

So I think its definitely possible that some M458 in the Balkans and Central Europe are due to Avars, and Volga Bulgars that founded the Bulgarian Empire. It makes sense honestly. Just look where M458 is most common. Everywhere these Polities had dominion. Bulgaria, Romania, Macedonia, South East Serbia, Central Europe etc.

Time will tell of course, but I find it rather asinine to assume all of M458 was locked in the pripyat marshes for all time like some titans caged in tartarus lol. It could very well have expanded out from there in antiquity and moved with these. So in summation I think M458 as far as Balkans is concerned is Bulgars, Avars, Proto-Slavs. Maybe in some rare cases(if such were assimilated very early) a Goth.

Thank on your explanation Dibran!
I knew that you are L1029, and not A11460, just wanted to say that both might be rare subclades.
A11460 is rare on the North, but there are confirmed or predicted results of this SNP in Bulgaria, Macedonia, Serbia and B&H. It is rare on Balkans but seems more frequently appears than among North Slavs.

 
Thank on your explanation Dibran!
I knew that you are L1029, and not A11460, just wanted to say that both might be rare subclades.
A11460 is rare on the North, but there are confirmed or predicted results of this SNP in Bulgaria, Macedonia, Serbia and B&H. It is rare on Balkans but seems more frequently appears than among North Slavs.


Ahh I see what you meant. Gave it a second read. My bad. Yea I did see somewhere one confirmed case of A11460 in Kosova. I am not sure if they were Albanian or Serbian though.
 

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