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Immigration In Europe, Islam rises, Christianity falls
- Thread starter Wang
- Start date
Islam will be the dominant religion, because the majority of the non-immigrant population has no religion. That does not mean that Europeans will become Muslim. If they rejected Christianity there is no chance that they will like better Islam, on the contrary. While native Europeans are moving further away from religiosity, Muslim immigrants only get more radically religious, opening the gap between both groups. No wonder that Muslim immigrants find it increasingly difficult to fit in European society, more than they did 30 or 40 years ago when Europeans were more religious and more tolerant and understanding toward other religions. Either the Muslim will have to become non religious or leave Europe - otherwise we will almost inevitably see major clashes between the two groups.
Wang
Regular Member
Islam is indeed currently the fastest growing religion in Europe. This is mostly due to the large percentage of immigrants who are muslims and bring their faith to Europe and a large part of newborn people in Europe that are from muslim immigrants. So yeah it?fll probably become the most active / dominant religion of Europe.
However isn?ft there a significant chance that a large proportion of later generations of current muslims won't be very active with islam anymore?
Maybe those later generations will be more like secularists which many Europeans are already. Or the practice of islam will decline over time, because they?fll adopt more western ways of living and thus spend most of their time on other things.
To islamificate Europe I think the following major factors must be fulfilled such as:
- Making sure that most of the offspring of muslims keep practicing islam.
- Enlarging the amount of muslims in Europe by more immigrantion from muslim countries to Europe and / or a big percentage of newborn people being from muslim families.
- Create their own islamic political parties, get seats in parliament so that they can push for their own issues in the government. Then later they could try to implement their faith, beliefs into governmental systems.
Anyway I don?ft think islam can become big enough of a force to bring about significant islamification of (West) Europe though. It will depend on if the factors which I?fve stated before can be achieved.
However isn?ft there a significant chance that a large proportion of later generations of current muslims won't be very active with islam anymore?
Maybe those later generations will be more like secularists which many Europeans are already. Or the practice of islam will decline over time, because they?fll adopt more western ways of living and thus spend most of their time on other things.
To islamificate Europe I think the following major factors must be fulfilled such as:
- Making sure that most of the offspring of muslims keep practicing islam.
- Enlarging the amount of muslims in Europe by more immigrantion from muslim countries to Europe and / or a big percentage of newborn people being from muslim families.
- Create their own islamic political parties, get seats in parliament so that they can push for their own issues in the government. Then later they could try to implement their faith, beliefs into governmental systems.
Anyway I don?ft think islam can become big enough of a force to bring about significant islamification of (West) Europe though. It will depend on if the factors which I?fve stated before can be achieved.
Wang said:
Yes, some immigrants have already become less religious or even atheistsic, but that is a very small minority. So far the major trend is for Muslim immigrants to become more radical than in their country of origin, as a way to preserve their identity in a foreign land. Most European Muslims think of themselves as Muslim first, before being British, French or whatever.
Wang
Regular Member
Is this due to weak integration policies in the European Union member countries?
Will the muslims eventually islamificate Europe? Or won't it come that far? If so then maybe the Vatican should move to North, Central or South America since Christianity is practiced much more actively there.
Will the muslims eventually islamificate Europe? Or won't it come that far? If so then maybe the Vatican should move to North, Central or South America since Christianity is practiced much more actively there.
Wang said:
I don't think so. Other (i.e. non Muslim) immigrants do not seem to have any problem integrating. In Belgium's case, there are free integration courses (language and culture) for immigrants.
Europeans will never become Muslim as they are getting less and less religious and Islam tends to be more radical than European Christianity. Given a few generations, the Muslims will also become less religious, I believe.
strongvoicesforward
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Maciamo said:
I think it will depend on if they can reach a certain economic level of affluence. The poor tend to cling more tightly to religion which offers them hope and pity. The richer people become the more materialistic they will become and the West`s consumerism will pull them away from many archaic religious beliefs (such as prudishness when it comes to the human body).
So, if the Muslim immigrants stay poor as a group they may not give up their religion in a few generations.
In America, I think immigrant populations remained poorer longer due to clustering in societies -- such as enclaves in cities like "Little Italy" or "Little Germany" etc... I think if they would have dispersed and integrated faster by not clustering, they would have made their way up the economic ladder quickly. But, coming into a foreign land, it is only natural, due to anxiety and a certain amount a fear, that people will seek out their own to mingle with for a sense of safety. But that is the conservative approach and I think the rewards go more to those who dare step out from the crowd.
Wang
Regular Member
Maciamo said:
Okay if that is the case then islam in Europe shouldn't become a big problem.
Sometimes it is nice to recall the old threads in light of new data.
Pew Research Center gave a projection of Muslim population in the world.
www.indianapolisrecorder.com/articles/2011/02/07/religion/doc4d4ae67ace561466069078.txt
"The global number of Muslims is expected to jump 35 percent in the next 20 years, growing twice as fast as the non-Muslim population, according to a study published recently. But Muslims are multiplying at a slower pace than before, and their numbers are expected to level out in the coming decades."
...
"According to the Pew report, The total number of people who identify themselves as Muslims is currently about 1.6 billion. That figure is expected to rise to 2.2 billion by the year 2030th That's an average growth rate of 1.5 percent, compared with a forecasted growth of 0.7 percent for non-Muslims over the next 20 years. If those trends continue, Muslims will make up 26.4 percent of the world's population in 2030, compared with 23.4 percent now."
And here's projections for Europe:
"According to the Pew report, 6 percent of Europeans today are Muslim, a proportion that's expected to rise to 8 percent by the 2030th In France and Belgium, the numbers are a bit higher - forecast to hit 10 percent in 20 years. Britain will have the same average percentage as the continent - 8 percent."
...
In practice this means that the only European country with large Muslim populations remain Albania, and if we include yet, the European part of Turkey.
In the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Muslim population is a majority in the several cantons, but not in all.
But in the Republic of Srpska (Serbian) majority population is Christian.
How map shows, Muslim minorities are still present in Bulgaria, Macedonia FYROM, Serbia, and Cyprus.
Pew Research Center gave a projection of Muslim population in the world.
www.indianapolisrecorder.com/articles/2011/02/07/religion/doc4d4ae67ace561466069078.txt
"The global number of Muslims is expected to jump 35 percent in the next 20 years, growing twice as fast as the non-Muslim population, according to a study published recently. But Muslims are multiplying at a slower pace than before, and their numbers are expected to level out in the coming decades."
...
"According to the Pew report, The total number of people who identify themselves as Muslims is currently about 1.6 billion. That figure is expected to rise to 2.2 billion by the year 2030th That's an average growth rate of 1.5 percent, compared with a forecasted growth of 0.7 percent for non-Muslims over the next 20 years. If those trends continue, Muslims will make up 26.4 percent of the world's population in 2030, compared with 23.4 percent now."
And here's projections for Europe:
"According to the Pew report, 6 percent of Europeans today are Muslim, a proportion that's expected to rise to 8 percent by the 2030th In France and Belgium, the numbers are a bit higher - forecast to hit 10 percent in 20 years. Britain will have the same average percentage as the continent - 8 percent."
...
In practice this means that the only European country with large Muslim populations remain Albania, and if we include yet, the European part of Turkey.
In the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Muslim population is a majority in the several cantons, but not in all.
But in the Republic of Srpska (Serbian) majority population is Christian.
How map shows, Muslim minorities are still present in Bulgaria, Macedonia FYROM, Serbia, and Cyprus.
This reminds me of the red scare after WW1 in which everyone was paranoid that communist ideologies would seep into their countries. The best force to combat religious extremism is education, plain and simple. I agree with Macimo that most people are athiests but follow a certain reilgion for tradition sake.
Though it does bother me when I read how the younger generation who are born in european countries are suppressed by their stupid parents because they can't understand modernity. Case in point an honour killing in northern Italy; a daughter didn't want to live a conservative life and had a italian boyfriend so the father killed her to preserve their families "honour".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12416394
Though it does bother me when I read how the younger generation who are born in european countries are suppressed by their stupid parents because they can't understand modernity. Case in point an honour killing in northern Italy; a daughter didn't want to live a conservative life and had a italian boyfriend so the father killed her to preserve their families "honour".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-12416394
Elias2
I agree. And certainly there are other ways that can be combined.
Here are some more specific data from a study by the Pew Center on Europe:
In 2030, Muslims are projected to make up more than 10% of the total population in 10 European countries:
Albania (83.2%),
Bosnia-Herzegovina (42.7%),
Republic of Macedonia (40.3%),
Montenegro (21.5%),
Bulgaria (15.7%),
Russia (14.4%),
Georgia (11.5%),
France (10.3%)
Belgium (10.2%).
Russia will continue to have the largest Muslim population (in absolute numbers) in Europe in 2030. Its Muslim population is expected to rise from 16.4 million in 2010 to 18.6 million in 2030. The growth rate for the Muslim population in Russia is projected to be 0.6% annually over the next two decades. By contrast, Russia’s non-Muslim population is expected to shrink by an average of 0.6% annually over the same period.
France had an expected net influx of 66,000 Muslim immigrants in 2010, primarily from North Africa. Muslims comprised an estimated two-thirds (68.5%) of all new immigrants to France in the past year. Spain was expected to see a net gain of 70,000 Muslim immigrants in 2010, but they account for a much smaller portion of all new immigrants to Spain (13.1%). The U.K.’s net inflow of Muslim immigrants in the past year (nearly 64,000) was forecast to be nearly as large as France’s. More than a quarter (28.1%) of all new immigrants to the U.K. in 2010 are estimated to be Muslim.
iapetoc
Junior Member
Garrick put also about 700 000 new muslims in Greece from pakistan and Iraq
leaving in athens
leaving in athens
Ok. Here are projections by the Pew Center in 2030 for Muslim population for all countries of Europe.
Albania, 83.2%
Armenia, < 0.1%
Austria, 9.3%
Belarus, 0.2%
Belgium, 10.2%
Bosnia-Herzegovina, 42.7%
Bulgaria, 15.7%
Croatia, 1.3%
Cyprus, 22.7%
Czech Republic, < 0.1%
Denmark, 5.6%
Estonia, 0.1%
Finland, 1.9%
France, 10.3%
Georgia, 11.5%
Germany, 7.1%
Greece, 6.9%
Hungary, 0.3%
Iceland, 0.1%
Ireland, 2.2%
Italy, 5.4%
Isle of Man, 0.2%
Latvia, 0.1%
Lithuania, 0.1%
Luxembourg, 2.3%
Malta, 0.3%
Moldova, 0.4%
Montenegro, 21.5%
Netherlands, 7.8%
Norway, 6.5%
Poland, 0.1%
Portugal, 0.6%
Macedonia FYROM, 40.3%
Romania, 0.4%
Russia, 14.4%
Serbia, 5.1%, Kosovo, 93.5%
Slovakia, 0.1%
Slovenia, 2.4%
Spain, 3.7%
Sweden, 9.9%
Switzerland, 8.1%
Ukraine, 1.0%
United Kingdom, 8.2%
Last edited:
Iapetoc,
These are absolute figures according to the projection for 2030 by the Pew Center for the Muslim population in any European country. You can see the projections for Greece.
Albania, 2,841,000
Armenia, 1,000
Austria, 799,000
Belarus, 17,000
Belgium, 1,149,000
Bosnia-Herzegovina, 1,503,000
Bulgaria, 1,016,000
Croatia, 54,000
Cyprus, 240,000
Czech Republic, 4,000
Denmark, 317,000
Estonia, 2,000
Finland, 105,000
France, 6,680,000
Georgia, 433,000
Germany, 5,545,000
Greece, 722,000
Hungary, 24,000
Iceland, <1,000
Ireland, 125,000
Isle of Man, <1,000
Italy, 3,199,000
Latvia, 2,000
Lithuania, 2,000
Luxembourg, 14,000
Malta, 1,000
Moldova, 13,000
Montenegro, 136,000
Netherlands, 1,365,000
Norway, 359,000
Poland, 19,000
Portugal, 65,000
Macedonia FYROM, 812,000
Romania, 73,000
Russia, 18,556,000
Serbia, 377,000
Slovakia, 4,000
Slovenia, 49,000
Spain, 1,859,000
Sweden, 993,000
Switzerland, 663,000
Ukraine, 408,000
United Kingdom, 5,567,000
These are absolute figures according to the projection for 2030 by the Pew Center for the Muslim population in any European country. You can see the projections for Greece.
Albania, 2,841,000
Armenia, 1,000
Austria, 799,000
Belarus, 17,000
Belgium, 1,149,000
Bosnia-Herzegovina, 1,503,000
Bulgaria, 1,016,000
Croatia, 54,000
Cyprus, 240,000
Czech Republic, 4,000
Denmark, 317,000
Estonia, 2,000
Finland, 105,000
France, 6,680,000
Georgia, 433,000
Germany, 5,545,000
Greece, 722,000
Hungary, 24,000
Iceland, <1,000
Ireland, 125,000
Isle of Man, <1,000
Italy, 3,199,000
Latvia, 2,000
Lithuania, 2,000
Luxembourg, 14,000
Malta, 1,000
Moldova, 13,000
Montenegro, 136,000
Netherlands, 1,365,000
Norway, 359,000
Poland, 19,000
Portugal, 65,000
Macedonia FYROM, 812,000
Romania, 73,000
Russia, 18,556,000
Serbia, 377,000
Slovakia, 4,000
Slovenia, 49,000
Spain, 1,859,000
Sweden, 993,000
Switzerland, 663,000
Ukraine, 408,000
United Kingdom, 5,567,000
Taranis
Elite member
Interesting. I saw a projection posted a few years back in the German news magazine "Der Spiegel" which suggested that Germany would have a Muslim population of 7 million by 2030 (which was, to be frank, already quite sane compared with some other projections I read elsewhere... 
). But apparently, people will even fall short of that one, too... :innocent:
). But apparently, people will even fall short of that one, too... :innocent:Interesting. I saw a projection posted a few years back in the German news magazine "Der Spiegel" which suggested that Germany would have a Muslim population of 7 million by 2030 (which was, to be frank, already quite sane compared with some other projections I read elsewhere...
Taranis
Ok. Seems that the Pew Center study this very seriously done. The study was done for the whole world, and I only show data for Europe. Pew Center gave a complete methodology how they worked and methodology is scientific (I can put it if someone wants). And the Pew Center point out that this projection:
"This report makes demographic projections. Projections are not the same as predictions. Rather, they are estimates built on current population data and assumptions about demographic trends; they are what will happen if the current data are accurate and the trends play out as expected. But many things – immigration laws, economic conditions, natural disasters, armed conflicts, scientific discoveries, social movements and political upheavals, to name just a few – can shift demographic trends in unforeseen ways, which is why this report adheres to a modest time frame, looking just 20 years down the road. Even so, there is no guarantee that Muslim populations will grow at precisely the rates anticipated in this report and not be affected by unforeseen events, such as political decisions on immigration quotas or national campaigns to encourage larger or smaller families."
Taranis
Elite member
Yeah, I see your point. It seems that they indeed did their study very thoroughly. What I mean is that this study is a total blow into the face of everybody who a few years back claimed (especially immediately after 9/11) how Europe is purportedly "under siege" by Islam and that it was only a short matter of time before the entire continent would be turned into a huge single Taliban playground. The sad part is that the far-right (both on this side and on the other side of the Atlantic) still maintain this view up today. :sad-2:
As late as a few days back, in the context of the protests in Egypt, the American right-wing news agitator Glenn Beck claimed "Once the Arabs get their act together, Europe is done for." The sad part is that it's totally unfair towards Muslims everywhere, since on the one hand it demonizes Islam and basically reinforces the idea that the West is purportedly on a "crusade" against the Islamic world, and on the other hand randomly lumps together people from various countries, sectarian affliation and their general religiosity. How are we supposed to get along together if such people ad hoc claim it's impossible?
Taranis
I was a little informed, reading among other things, some Islamic sites, and opinions about this study.
It seems the results of the study are moderate. I have the impression that some people expected a bit more, generally, from different orientations.
Thus serious study of the Islamic population projections I have not seen before.
In particular I give the link of the methodology of the study, because I think it's important to know what the authors of the study methodology used, but with this link it is easy to go and study in detail where everyone can see what he is interested.
Extract from the methodology:
...
Discussion of Sources
Sources for this report include United Nations data, national censuses, demographic and health surveys, and general population surveys and studies. The specific source used for the Muslim population in each country is listed in Appendix B: Data Sources by Country. Readers should note, however, that general population surveys typically have smaller sample sizes than demographic surveys and are not designed to measure the size of small minority populations. This may lead to undercounts of Muslims in countries where they represent a small minority of the population and to overcounts where they represent the vast majority of the population. See below for more detail.
With all sources, results may be affected by methodological decisions with respect to how the data are collected and managed. Social, cultural or political factors can also affect how answers to census and survey questions are provided and recorded.
...
The whole methodology, link:
The Future of the Global Muslim Population
Projections for 2010-2030
ANALYSIS January 27, 2011
Appendix A: Methodology
Navigate this Page:
- Data
- Projection Assumptions
- The Projected Global Muslim Population Scenarios
- Discussion of Sources
- A Note on Country and Territory Designation
What is also interesting in this detailed report are interactive maps.
http://features.pewforum.org/muslim-population-graphic/
http://features.pewforum.org/muslim-population-graphic/