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These 2 Kovac brothers (Robert and Niko) are Bosnian Croats who are, potentially, direct descendants of some of the recently published L283 samples from the GB paper. They are on the PH1602 branch, specifically this branch :
https://www.yfull.com/tree/J-Y86930/
Wow, that's a Sea Peoples lineage probably! One branch staying in the Adriatic, the other moved to the Near East. Impressive example and I'm sure the sample from the GB paper is from Europe, because its autosomally North-Central Italian like and surely from the Northern Adriatic-Pannonia.
I dont know, looking at the urnfield map - it looks quite clear to me where the illyrians were as it doesnt differ too much with post urnfield - why did urnfield allow for such mass of land in western balkans to go amiss, there was surely an opposing force in that region at the time.
Do you suggest that the paleobalkanic groups in south europe were replaced by urnfield? If you claim that illyrians, thracians etc are direct descendents of urnfield then their y dna should be similar. Even without an urnfield origin, since they are both bronze age paleobalkanic groups as the map suggests their y dna again could have initially come from a similar middle bronze age source
I'm suggesting that the Danubian-Alpine TC brought Illyrians, firmly established them in the region. When Urnfield spread, it didn't spread from those Middle Danubian-Balkan TC group, but from further North and East, it did so along the Danube. The Danubian groups largely switched to cremation, the Southern (Illyrian core) did not. They just were more conservative and sticked to the old custom, which was however fairly recently introduced in some regions by the very Middle Danubian TC invasion. Along the Danube there was a strong influence from the Carpathian, Daco-Thracian side, from the very people they did push East soon before (Kyjatice-G?va).
Scordisci occurred due to the failed invasion of the celts against Greece...the remnants settled in modern Serbia creating these scordisci .......they eventually mixed with thracian and dardanian people
Exactly, they were among the "least Celtic of all Celts". Latenisation started in the area even before the actual Celts came, this is important to stress. So they were already half-assimilated, when these warriors came in and got in charge of things. But the population was essentially local Pannonian-Illyrian and Daco-Thracian.
As for Tumulus, Tumulus-Grave/Hugelgraberkultur came from Bavaria and crossed the Alps to Carpathian Mountains during Middle Bronze Age to cause all that turmoil and chaos, so i think the timeline you are proposing don't match.
It all really depends on how we view Illyrians, if they were largely Yamnaya then we don't need the LBA input. Early to Middle Bronze Age Belotic Bela Crkva Culture from Serbia split into two groups, one in West to form Glasinac Culture and the other in South to influence the Matt-Painted Pottery Culture forming the South Illyrians (Illyri Propri dictii) and some split-offs subsequently crossing the Adriatic and being known as Messapi, Dauni, Iapygians.
On top of all of these groups we have the Late Bronze Age Danubian Urnfield influence, this is the tricky part to check who were they in specificity, Marija Gimbutas proposed it was the Koszider hoard (Encrusted Pottery Culture influenced by Tumulus-Grave people). I guess we will find out.
The cultural influence is obvious, the connections too. Its however possible that it was a more local population just adopting elements, but that became extremely unlikely, because of the position of some of the J2b from past and the present British study. They made it too far to the North to be remnants of something earlier, and the tide was against anything creeping up that strongly too. So the most likely explanation is: The J-L283 guys came downwards themselves, in associated with Beaker related ancestry.
By the way, the Verteba cave sample is out, it proves that Pannonian/Epic-Corded/Beaker like elements, presumably G?va, expanded to the East with G?va-Holigrady possibly. That's now one axis of the expansion, which looks fine from F?zesabony to Kyjatice-G?va. All the E-V13 samples are on two related clines, one more BGR_EBA/IA, presumably from the South, similar to Moldovan "Scythians", the other 3 between Mokrin and F?zesabony, looking Pannonian.
The paper on Verteba cave is out, some samples show indeed increased WHG affinity.
As for the LBA individual:
Individual VERT-114, dated around the LBA, showed a genetic position close to Bell-Beaker populations in PCA and ADMIXTURE. This individual shows a higher influx of ancestry from WHG than from EHG populations f4(Mbuti, VERT-114; WHG, EHG) -0.002, Z score=-8,64), similar to the results obtained for the aggregate group of 22 Verteba individuals. qpAdm results for this individual show that a single model with a Bell_Beaker population as a single source works (Fig. 4). Many of the two-way models involve populations related to Ukraine_Globular_Amphora and to steppe populations, with approximately 60% of ancestry from the former and the rest from the latter.
https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1044480/v1
I guess it will be closer to G?va and Kyjatice, probably F?zesabony, rather than Beakers, but let's see. They didn't compare with those single samples, but they used Mako too, which being not mentioned and wouldn't fit anyway, because its too WHG. The individual is a female, mtDNA T2.
Looking at which Beakers she is closest too, its clear, its going in a G?va direction:
Verteba_LBA* Poland_Southeast_BellBeaker
Verteba_LBA* Hungary_EBA_BellBeaker
That's not British Beakers of course...
I would interpret all the results as mounting evidence for a local continuity of a WHG heavy Neolithic population around the Carpathians and Pannonia, which was later fusing with Epi-Corded/Beaker groups to create the North Pannonian clusters which emerged with G?va, Kyjatice and F?zesabony/late Otomani.