Low fertility, high migration rate - what will Europe look like in the future?

Maciamo

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I was having a look at the population projections for 2100 in Our World in Data and thought it would be easier to visualise with a map. Countries in green will see their population grow, while those in orange and red will contract. Of course such projections are very difficult to make and other sources give figures that are sometimes quite different (e.g. France and the UK growing by 30% instead of 1% and 15% here). But overall the expected direction of things is that southern, central and eastern Europe will see their populations shrink drastically and only a few of the wealthier countries will grow thanks to immigration from the rest of Europe and from outside Europe.

Population_growth_2100.png



The fertility rates confirm that not a single country could grow due people having more children. Any growth is linked to immigration. But countries like Romania, which is expected to lose a third of its population by 2100, are not afflicted by a total fertility breakdown. On the contrary, Romania is one of the few EU countries with a fertility rate of 2 children per woman. So the demographic decline will be caused by emigration, especially to western and northern Europe.

Fertility_rates.png



The next map shows that richer countries already have a higher percentage of foreign-born residents, Switzerland and Luxembourg on top with over 30% of foreigners.

Foreign-born_population.png



The situation in the USA is similar to that of Scandinavia. The population is going to grow by about 35% by 2100, although the fertility rate is slightly under the replacement level, so that most of the growth will be caused by immigration.
 
Of course, the more immigration, the more, eventually, the "ethnicity" of the population will change.


it wouldn't happen in eastern europe though
the r1a big wall ( and i am not saying it for positive or negetive just decribe the reality)


p.s
even in prague ( central europe geographicly) when i was younger i travell with my brother
i saw only 2 muslims in all the trip
it isn't marsile thats for sure .......:unsure:
 
it wouldn't happen in eastern europe though
the r1a big wall ( and i am not saying it for positive or negetive just decribe the reality)


p.s
even in prague ( central europe geographicly) when i was younger i travell with my brother
i saw only 2 muslims in all the trip
it isn't marsile thats for sure .......:unsure:

That's exactly my point. The lower the migration rates, the less change in the original population. The eastern European countries, like Poland, I believe, only agreed to take Christian Near Easterners. Not that it mattered; the ones who went all left. That tells you the kind of welcome they received.

The further east you go in Europe the more xenophobia.

I do understand the Italian numbers even with regard to other EU migrants. When their own unemployment numbers are so high, why would they want people from other European countries coming in to take their jobs? Or, the migrants are rich Brits and Germans who drive real estate prices even in the country sky high. I can say from personal experience that Tuscans don't like Tuscany being called Chiantishire. The Brits are a little more welcome because a lot of them are Italophiles who know the language and sometimes more of the history than the locals. Even with the famous one Euro for a house program in some tiny borghi, you have to contract not only to fix up the property to code, but to live there most of the year and to learn the language and local culture. They don't want to Balkanize Italy or have these villages become second home vacation houses; they want to revitalize their communities. I've actually thought about doing it.
 
My wife and I have retired and are downsizing. We will have about $300k to spend on a second home most probably for a house in a Greek island. The only problem with that plan is the availability of emergency medicine. That's the same problem that living in the small villages in Italy will present.
 
My wife and I have retired and are downsizing. We will have about $300k to spend on a second home most probably for a house in a Greek island. The only problem with that plan is the availability of emergency medicine. That's the same problem that living in the small villages in Italy will present.

The type of health care that my family and I will have and what are the economic conditions so that I can afford a good health plan for me and for them are, IMO, the most important variables for me to take up residence anywhere place in the world that is not be my City. I can only be happy with healthy and with the certainty that my family and I will always have the best in this area, when necessary.
 
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On one hand you have the media telling Europeans not to have kids, on the other hand it is telling Europeans to let in immigrants because we don't have enough kids.

is that so? where i live the politics are constantly trying to create new reasons to have kids and media is rather supporting that. it's just that having kids takes a lot of time money and energy, and many people do not want to sacrifice that or have only 1-2 children at max..
 
Does not look good for the Balkans either



demographic-depopulation.jpg






[FONT=&quot]Young people are leaving. Fertility rates have collapsed. Societies are ageing. And though hundreds of thousands of refugees and migrants have tramped through much of the region, few want to stay. Borders, ethnic spats, EU accession, NATO membership and unfinished business from the wars of the 1990s — these are the stories that fill the news from the Balkans. But serious analysis of the region’s demographic decline, depopulation and the hollowing out of the labour force is harder to find. Possibly this is because governments have neither credible answers nor the resources available to change things. If demography is destiny, the Balkan future is bleak — but it is not unique. From Greece to Poland, almost all Eastern, Central and Southeast European countries are wrestling with the same problems. On current projections, by 2050, Bulgaria will have 38.6 percent fewer people than it did in 1990. Serbia will have 23.8 percent fewer, Croatia 22.4 percent and Romania 30.1 percent. Moldova has already lost 33.9 percent of its population. Bosnia and Herzegovina has a fertility rate of 1.26, one of the lowest in the world. Kosovo, with a median age of 29, is the youngest country in the region but does not escape demographic decline either. The figures and percentages may vary but the trends are the same almost everywhere, albeit with some countries further advanced than others. Serbia’s median age is 43, older than the EU average of 42.6. However you look at it, the demographic future of the Balkans and this half of Europe, afflicted by emigration and chronic low birth rates, is dramatic.[/FONT]

https://www.iwm.at/blog/bye-bye-balkans-a-region-in-critical-demographic-decline
 
Fertility rates have gone down because of the emancipation of women and their employment. Nothing bad about that but the other factor was caused by neoliberalism and the attack on our social systems. It came to a point where natives no longer think they can afford kids. Meanwhile, migrants with high fertility rates get everything from the welfare state that is refused to natives. They are not high on women's right or their wives going to work. Once they're here, they just punch out more children and the working society gets the bill. The point in time will come when the so-called establishment realises that you can't run a successful society without a good suply of highly educated young people. You're not getting those from Somalia, Syria or Afghanistan. You have to produce them yourself.
 
Fertility rates can and do change drastically over time to reverse shrinking populations as a result of changes in social pressures (economic, gender relations, individual wealth, religiosity, cultural and otherwise), however, once a population is thoroughly admixed with immigrants which have ancestries that are not similar to the local populace this cannot be "undone", unlike low fertility. We have seen many periods where Europe's population has declined and then resurfaced to produce higher numbers than prior, but we have not seen major genetic turnover in Europe since the bronze age, and even that brought migrants from Anatolia and the European steppe rather than places like Pakistan, Subsaharan Africa, the Arabian Peninsula and East Asia.

What's more is that even in non European populated countries we see large declines in fertility nearly everywhere across the globe as well. It's more apt to say that fertility decline has less to do with Europe specifically than it does with industrialization.

Because of this, it appears to me that North Western European countries are making a large mistake by welcoming mass migration as the end result of these policies will be nations that no longer resemble the populations they had in times prior. Countries who are not welcoming mass migration may experience population declines temporarily for several decades due to lower fertility but are likely to eventually recover once these trends reverse, while retaining their historic genealogy.
 
it wouldn't happen in eastern europe though
the r1a big wall ( and i am not saying it for positive or negetive just decribe the reality)


p.s
even in prague ( central europe geographicly) when i was younger i travell with my brother
i saw only 2 muslims in all the trip
it isn't marsile thats for sure .......:unsure:

There is also an R1a wall in india
 
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Croatia is accepting a lot of migrant workers because their own labour force is leaving for Austria and Germany.
 
Villages in Europe importing wives from impoversihed countries that are genetically close to europeans may help
 
Villages in Europe importing wives from impoversihed countries that are genetically close to europeans may help

How will they manage that? Easier to just tell people to have more kids
 
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