MDLP K11 Result : Unetice/Tumulus/Urnfield into Northwestern Europe?

Northener

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Modern Europeans are genetically close to their ancestors of the late Bronze Age. To say it in another way: the genetic cards were shaken at the end of the Bronze Age.

Looking at my aDNA in the MDLP K11 matches with:

1 Halberstadt_LBA @ 1.753964
2 Alberstedt_LN @ 1.883032
3 Bell_Beaker_Germany @ 2.323992
4 Bell_Beaker_Czech @ 3.536243
5 British_Celtic @ 4.103508
6 British_AngloSaxon @ 5.348632
7 British_IronAge @ 5.791267
8 Nordic_MN_B @ 5.830501
9 Nordic_LN @ 6.482782
10 Unetice_EBA @ 6.646599

So my modern North Dutch aDNA comes close to Halberstadt LBA, that’s an example drawn from the Urnfield culture. According to the website civfanatics this was “ Y-DNA from Late Bronze Age Lusatian Culture (as part of Urnfield horizon), from Halberstadt-Sonntagsfeld in Saxony-Anhalt.This is the first - so far - ancient Y-DNA from the Lusatian Culture (Biskupin in Poland is the most famous site of this culture). He was named in this study as individual Halberstadt_LBA, I0099’.

Nr 2 Alberstedt (-LN) lays 80 km Northwestwards of Halberstadt and is sometimes associated with the Bell Beakers.


Questions: is this an example of Unetice/Tumulus/Urnfield turning Northwestwards? Was the NW Europe heavily influenced by the (post) Bell Beakers of central Europe?

Any thoughts about this?

 
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Big shift in Bronze Age happened with CW migration from Eastern Europe. The LBA I0099 is very like Hinxon 3 and 4 from England, and very close to yours/modern Dutch. However there were farther changes in Poland, but I'm not sure when they happened. Maybe with Slavic migration?

?Hinxton-1F999921Hinxton-2F999922Hinxton-3F999925Hinxton-4, R DF-25F999926Hinxton-5M107790I0099
Cambridgshire, UK Cambridgshire, UK1.3kyaCambridgshire, UK1.3kyaCambridgshire, UK2kyaCambridgshire, UK1.3kyaGermany, Halberstedt LNBA
Run time Run time7.65Run time7.58Run time11.96Run time7.12Run time11.67
S-Indian- S-Indian- S-Indian- S-Indian0.15S-Indian- S-Indian1.28
Baloch12.04Baloch11.48Baloch12.09Baloch11.05Baloch9.93Baloch11.84
Caucasian3.04Caucasian0.74Caucasian6.57Caucasian5.82Caucasian0.91Caucasian6.75
NE-Euro50.86NE-Euro55.83NE-Euro49.73NE-Euro49.98NE-Euro54.31NE-Euro49.39
SE-Asian- SE-Asian- SE-Asian0.67SE-Asian- SE-Asian0.47SE-Asian-
Siberian- Siberian0.05Siberian- Siberian- Siberian0.14Siberian-
NE-Asian- NE-Asian0.49NE-Asian- NE-Asian- NE-Asian- NE-Asian-
Papuan- Papuan0.1Papuan- Papuan- Papuan- Papuan-
American- American0.11American0.45American- American- American-
Beringian- Beringian0.46Beringian- Beringian1.27Beringian- Beringian-
Mediterranean31.57Mediterranean29.25Mediterranean29.09Mediterranean30.78Mediterranean32.11Mediterranean30.33
SW-Asian1.23SW-Asian- SW-Asian- SW-Asian0.06SW-Asian1.16SW-Asian-
San- San0.15San- San- San- San-
E-African- E-African0.64E-African- E-African- E-African- E-African-
Pygmy0.54Pygmy- Pygmy0.32Pygmy- Pygmy- Pygmy-
W-African0.71W-African0.7W-African1.09W-African0.88W-African0.98W-African0.37
 
German researchers often stress the importance of the Schönfelder culture (the perpetrators of the horrific massacre on the Corded Ware people) in the development of the Urnfield system. They were in fact the first Central Europeans to cremate their dead and bury them in the eponymous urnfields. While the Urnfield culture in the proper sense emanated from Austria-Italy, it may well have had more ancient roots in North-Central Europe. Perhaps some of the affinity seen here can partly be explained this way, too.

The Schönfelders also had the characteristic face urns ('Gesichtsurnen') that would later spread into Denmark and beyond, presumably with the expansion of the Jastorf culture.
 
Interesting, it doesn't look line Basal entered the British Isles until Roman times. According to MDLP 11, All three genome samples; British-Iron Age, British Celts and Anglo-Saxons lacked the Basal Genome. However it appears that the Romans carried 54.4% Basal. Do you know where the Roman's got the Basal genome? Concidering what the spreadsheet is saying I'm surprised but astonished that my Basal admixture is 2.5%.

Anyways, yes most the genetic cards were shaken but I disagree that that would be all the cards; at least for some European Countries. Ancient Civilizations were still moving around; either by invasion, or perhaps trade. For example, the Celts in the British Isles went via 4 waves of invasion; the Romans, Anglo-Saxons, Vikings and Romans.




MDLP K11 2xOracle and OracleX4

Admix Results (sorted):

#PopulationPercent
1WHG36.40
2Neolithic32.93
3EHG25.73
4Basal2.56
5Iran-Mesolithic2.28

(735) End of data. popN=151

Finished reading population data. 161 populations found.
11 components mode.

--------------------------------

Least-squares method.

Using 1 population approximation:
1 Alberstedt_LN @ 3.313489
2 Bell_Beaker_Germany @ 3.771106
3 British_Celtic @ 3.844605
4 Halberstadt_LBA @ 5.427621
5 British_IronAge @ 6.497814
6 Bell_Beaker_Czech @ 7.082164
7 Nordic_MN_B @ 7.822927
8 Nordic_LN @ 8.433519
9 British_AngloSaxon @ 8.450976
10 BenzigerodeHeimburg_LN @ 8.571537
11 Unetice_EBA @ 9.658846
12 Nordic_BA @ 9.805140
13 Nordic_BattleAxe @ 11.004900
14 Nordic_IA @ 11.325181
15 Bell_Beaker @ 11.605810
16 Corded_Ware_Proto_Unetice_Poland @ 11.924611
17 Nordic_LBA @ 12.085502
18 Irish_BA @ 12.918762
19 Unetice_MBA @ 14.439532
20 Corded_Ware_Estonia @ 14.755296

Using 2 populations approximation:
1 50% Srubnaya_LBA +50% Vatya_MBA @ 2.750289


Using 3 populations approximation:
1 50% Corded_Ware_Germany +25% Halberstadt_LBA +25% Hungary_CA @ 1.275412


Using 4 populations approximation:
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
1 Alberstedt_LN + Corded_Ware_Germany + Corded_Ware_Germany + Hungary_CA @ 1.240832
2 Corded_Ware_Germany + Corded_Ware_Germany + Halberstadt_LBA + Hungary_CA @ 1.275412
3 BenzigerodeHeimburg_LN + Corded_Ware_Germany + Hungary_CA + Poltavka_MBA_outlier @ 1.287134
4 Bell_Beaker_Germany + Corded_Ware_Germany + Corded_Ware_Germany + Hungary_CA @ 1.304865
5 Corded_Ware_Estonia + GermanStuttgart_LBK + Poltavka_MBA_outlier + Poltavka_MBA_outlier @ 1.405681
6 Corded_Ware_Estonia + GermanStuttgart_LBK + Poltavka_MBA_outlier + Poltavka_MBA_outlier @ 1.405681
7 British_AngloSaxon + Hungary_CA + Karsdorf_LN + Poltavka_MBA_outlier @ 1.414091
8 Bell_Beaker_Czech + Corded_Ware_Germany + Corded_Ware_Germany + Hungary_CA @ 1.414984
9 Corded_Ware_Germany + Halberstadt_LBA + Hungary_CA + Poltavka_MBA_outlier @ 1.471531
10 Nordic_BattleAxe + Hungary_CA + Poltavka_MBA_outlier + Poltavka_MBA_outlier @ 1.488618
11 Corded_Ware_Germany + Hungary_CA + Poltavka_MBA_outlier + Unetice_EBA @ 1.521471
12 Bell_Beaker_Czech + Corded_Ware_Germany + Hungary_CA + Poltavka_MBA_outlier @ 1.538290
13 Corded_Ware_Germany + GermanStuttgart_LBK + Poltavka_MBA_outlier + Unetice_EBA @ 1.544106
14 Corded_Ware_Germany + GermanStuttgart_LBK + Poltavka_MBA_outlier + Unetice_EBA @ 1.544106
15 Corded_Ware_Germany + Hungary_CA + Nordic_LN + Poltavka_MBA_outlier @ 1.589053
16 Nordic_BattleAxe + Corded_Ware_Germany + Hungary_CA + Poltavka_MBA_outlier @ 1.612934
 
@Twilight () @Markoz( ) @LeBrok ()
thanks for your contributions!!!

Basically it would be nice, with our different backgrounds and knowledge, if we can combine major developments with regional phenomenons and genetic facts and figures with archeological findings. May be it's trivial but there is a shared Saxon-denominator-eighter Anglo (Hinxton), Lower (mine) or Anhalt (Haltstadt) ;)

I think there are in this period -the Bronze Age- certain major trends, which formed the genetic matryoshka, with pictures (derived from Fokkens, Bell Beakers 2012) of the archeological situation of my aDNA region.

1. as LeBrok stated the influence of the Corded Ware or single grave.
See this picture of the single grave, my aDNA is from the region in the most North Eastern part (light yellow, in the 'head formed part') of the Netherlands, clearly with single grave findings, so corded ware, and also with an AOOB development which is Beaker out of Corded Ware.
10wpa8i.jpg


2. then we see the occurrence of the Bell Beakers, this looks very hybrid or eclectic, partly from a maritime expansion originated in Iberia, the Maritime Beakers (so higher Med compared to NE Europe?), partly formed out of the single grave, but very connected with the German Bell Beakers at least for my region:
2n9ck9i.jpg



and (3) may be partly from development from more central European, south eastern of my aDNA area. This last development is Unetice/Tumulus/Urnfield. In the past they qualified this as some kind of Celtic development. This is a very interesting one Markoz the Schönfelder culture was unfamiliar for me Markoz. But I guess this could also have lead to the Sögel Wohlde Kreis. The Sögel Wohlde Kreis was 'responsible' for another finding, a grave of a chieftain, in my aDNA region (even exactly at my mothers place of birth).

Prof Harry Fokkens (1998):
''The northern Netherlands is part of the northern group (NW Germany and Denmark) especially of the Sögeler Kreis characterized by a number of distinctive men's graves. The Drouwen grave is the best known Dutch example. It's remarkable that the Elp culture has never been presented as the immigration of a new group of people. Because clearly this period was a time when a number of new elements made their entry while others disappeared. The disappearance of beakers, the appearance of the Sögel men's graves with the first 'swords', among other things, the fully extended burial posture, under barrows; all the factors have been reason enough in the past to conclude that the Elp culture an immigration of Sögel warriors."

And last nut not least recent theories about the Germanic ethnogenises place the development of the Germanic language in exactly the region of Halbertstadt-Alberstedt! (Wolfram Euler, Sprache und Herkunft der Germanen (Hamburg/London 2009). Sometimes because of a supposed hybrid Germanic/Celtic sticker, they called the Elp culture also the Northwest Block....

And I guess (@Twilight) this close connection could be due to first of all the influence of the Rhenish Bell Beakers (Beakerfolk). And second, of course, the Saxon invasion in the aftermath of the Romans.

I know it's fragmented,not overall comprehensive yet, and all through the eyelashes, but may be you can complete (or correct) it?
 
Last edited:
@Twilight () @Markoz( ) @LeBrok ()
thanks for your contributions!!!

Basically it would be nice, with our different backgrounds and knowledge, if we can combine major developments with regional phenomenons and genetic facts and figures with archeological findings. May be it's trivial but there is a shared Saxon-denominator-eighter Anglo (Hinxton), Lower (mine) or Anhalt (Haltstadt) ;)

I think there are in this period -the Bronze Age- certain major trends, which formed the genetic matryoshka, with pictures (derived from Fokkens, Bell Beakers 2012) of the archeological situation of my aDNA region.

1. as LeBrok stated the influence of the Corded Ware or single grave.
See this picture of the single grave, my aDNA is from the region in the most North Eastern part (light yellow, in the 'head formed part') of the Netherlands, clearly with single grave findings, so corded ware, and also with an AOOB development which is Beaker out of Corded Ware.
10wpa8i.jpg


2. then we see the occurrence of the Bell Beakers, this looks very hybrid or eclectic, partly from a maritime expansion originated in Iberia, the Maritime Beakers (so higher Med compared to NE Europe?), partly formed out of the single grave, but very connected with the German Bell Beakers at least for my region:
2n9ck9i.jpg



and (3) may be partly from development from more central European, south eastern of my aDNA area. This last development is Unetice/Tumulus/Urnfield. In the past they qualified this as some kind of Celtic development. This is a very interesting one Markoz the Schönfelder culture was unfamiliar for me Markoz. But I guess this could also have lead to the Sögel Wohlde Kreis. The Sögel Wohlde Kreis was 'responsible' for another finding, a grave of a chieftain, in my aDNA region (even exactly at my mothers place of birth).

Prof Harry Fokkens (1998):
''The northern Netherlands is part of the northern group (NW Germany and Denmark) especially of the Sögeler Kreis characterized by a number of distinctive men's graves. The Drouwen grave is the best known Dutch example. It's remarkable that the Elp culture has never been presented as the immigration of a new group of people. Because clearly this period was a time when a number of new elements made their entry while others disappeared. The disappearance of beakers, the appearance of the Sögel men's graves with the first 'swords', among other things, the fully extended burial posture, under barrows; all the factors have been reason enough in the past to conclude that the Elp culture an immigration of Sögel warriors."

And last nut not least recent theories about the Germanic ethnogenises place the development of the Germanic language in exactly the region of Halbertstadt-Alberstedt! (Wolfram Euler, Sprache und Herkunft der Germanen (Hamburg/London 2009). Sometimes because of a supposed hybrid Germanic/Celtic sticker, they called the Elp culture also the Northwest Block....

And I guess (@Twilight) this close connection could be due to first of all the influence of the Rhenish Bell Beakers (Beakerfolk). And second, of course, the Saxon invasion in the aftermath of the Romans.

I know it's fragmented,not overall comprehensive yet, and all through the eyelashes, but may be you can complete (or correct) it?

Sure thing I'd love too, ruling out some haplogroups and posting some samples so we can use the "Order of elimination" since these genomes seem to date to Mesolithic times at least.


Here is the history of the British Isles and my hypothesis' please feel free to edit if something is not right or out of place :) .


Mesolithic: I2a1, I2a2a (WHG/Tardinoisian Culture?)
Neolithic: I2, (G2a/Neolithic Newcomers?)
Copper Age: I2, G2a, (T/Iranian Mesolithic or assimilated Southern Yamna; Caucasian Neolithic?), (R1b/ EHG/Southern Yamna?), (E-V13/African?)
Roman British Isles: I2, G2a, (T; Thomas Jefferson was Ydna T), R1b, E-V13, (J2b/Basal?)


J2b is the only new Ydna was arrived in England during Roman times.
http://www.eupedia.com/europe/Haplogroup_J2_Y-DNA.shtml#Roman


http://www.eupedia.com/genetics/britain_ireland_dna.shtml
http://www.eupedia.com/europe/neolithic_europe_map.shtml
 
I played with my genetic Models a bit again. :)
I managed to recreate the BA "German" and IA Saxon, which are very alike, and very close to modern Dutch. I used 55% of German Corded Ware, 40% Swedish Farmer (which represents a type of Norther Farmer adaptation) and 5% SHG. I tried many different farmers and hunter gatherers, and cultures but the models were not as good as this one. Keep in mind that German CW is already a composition of 50% Yamnaya, 40% WHG and 10%EEF.

First 3 guys are the Source with proportion of participation. First one is German CW, second is Swedish Farmer and third Scandinavian Hunter Gatherer. Forth guys is the model, which is composed of first 3. Fifth and Sixth are the 2 guys we are trying to understand their ancestry composition.

Source0.55Source0.4Source0.05ModelTargetTarget
M224345I0103F999934Gökhem2F999917I-L416BA/IA NW GermanicsM107790I0099F999925Hinxton-4, R DF-25
Germany Espersted, BA4.5 kyaSweden5kyaMotala 12 Östergötland, Sweden7 kyaCompositionGermany, Halberstedt BA3.1kyaCambridgshire, UK2kya
Run time12.04Run time7.82Run time8.67Run timeRun time11.67Run time11.96
S-Indian0S-Indian0S-Indian0S-Indian -S-Indian1.28S-Indian0.15
Baloch20.73Baloch0Baloch0Baloch 11.40Baloch11.84Baloch11.05
Caucasian5.6Caucasian6.67Caucasian0Caucasian 5.75Caucasian6.75Caucasian5.82
NE-Euro56.52NE-Euro30.03NE-Euro90.24NE-Euro 47.61NE-Euro49.39NE-Euro49.98
SE-Asian0SE-Asian0SE-Asian0SE-Asian -SE-Asian-SE-Asian-
Siberian0Siberian0Siberian0.07Siberian 0.00Siberian-Siberian-
NE-Asian0NE-Asian0.6NE-Asian0NE-Asian 0.24NE-Asian-NE-Asian-
Papuan0Papuan0.21Papuan0.57Papuan 0.11Papuan-Papuan-
American1.92American0American1.58American 1.14American-American-
Beringian0.26Beringian0Beringian0.68Beringian 0.18Beringian-Beringian1.27
Mediterranean14.53Mediterranean55.04Mediterranean6.83Mediterranean 30.35Mediterranean30.33Mediterranean30.78
SW-Asian0SW-Asian4.94SW-Asian0SW-Asian 1.98SW-Asian-SW-Asian0.06
San0San0San0San -San-San-
E-African0E-African0E-African0E-African -E-African-E-African-
Pygmy0Pygmy0Pygmy0Pygmy -Pygmy-Pygmy-
W-African0.44W-African2.51W-African0W-African 1.25W-African0.37W-African0.88
 
I played with my genetic Models a bit again. :)
I managed to recreate the BA "German" and IA Saxon, which are very alike, and very close to modern Dutch. I used 55% of German Corded Ware, 40% Swedish Farmer (which represents a type of Norther Farmer adaptation) and 5% SHG. I tried many different farmers and hunter gatherers, and cultures but the models were not as good as this one. Keep in mind that German CW is already a composition of 50% Yamnaya, 40% WHG and 10%EEF.

First 3 guys are the Source with proportion of participation. First one is German CW, second is Swedish Farmer and third Scandinavian Hunter Gatherer. Forth guys is the model, which is composed of first 3. Fifth and Sixth are the 2 guys we are trying to understand their ancestry composition.

Source0.55Source0.4Source0.05ModelTargetTarget
M224345I0103F999934Gökhem2F999917I-L416BA/IA NW GermanicsM107790I0099F999925Hinxton-4, R DF-25
Germany Espersted, BA4.5 kyaSweden5kyaMotala 12 Östergötland, Sweden7 kyaCompositionGermany, Halberstedt BA3.1kyaCambridgshire, UK2kya
Run time12.04Run time7.82Run time8.67Run timeRun time11.67Run time11.96
S-Indian0S-Indian0S-Indian0S-Indian -S-Indian1.28S-Indian0.15
Baloch20.73Baloch0Baloch0Baloch 11.40Baloch11.84Baloch11.05
Caucasian5.6Caucasian6.67Caucasian0Caucasian 5.75Caucasian6.75Caucasian5.82
NE-Euro56.52NE-Euro30.03NE-Euro90.24NE-Euro 47.61NE-Euro49.39NE-Euro49.98
SE-Asian0SE-Asian0SE-Asian0SE-Asian -SE-Asian-SE-Asian-
Siberian0Siberian0Siberian0.07Siberian 0.00Siberian-Siberian-
NE-Asian0NE-Asian0.6NE-Asian0NE-Asian 0.24NE-Asian-NE-Asian-
Papuan0Papuan0.21Papuan0.57Papuan 0.11Papuan-Papuan-
American1.92American0American1.58American 1.14American-American-
Beringian0.26Beringian0Beringian0.68Beringian 0.18Beringian-Beringian1.27
Mediterranean14.53Mediterranean55.04Mediterranean6.83Mediterranean 30.35Mediterranean30.33Mediterranean30.78
SW-Asian0SW-Asian4.94SW-Asian0SW-Asian 1.98SW-Asian-SW-Asian0.06
San0San0San0San -San-San-
E-African0E-African0E-African0E-African -E-African-E-African-
Pygmy0Pygmy0Pygmy0Pygmy -Pygmy-Pygmy-
W-African0.44W-African2.51W-African0W-African 1.25W-African0.37W-African0.88

Thanks! Keep in mind that my aDNA is more typically North Dutch in stead of South Dutch, and even for North Dutch my results are sometimes more Nordic in the admixtures

Regarding the facts and figures and Halberstadt this is a relevant comment from Simon W on Eurogenes:

" Simon_W said...
@ Colin Welling


According to Haak et al. the Scottish top the list of Yamnaya ancestry on the British Isles with 48.6% according to Figure S9.25. Unfortunately this figure doesn't include Germans and Austrians. It does include Czechs, though, who have slightly more than that, with 48.8%. Now you might rightly object that Czechs, although geographically in central Europe, have eastern European Slavic admixture.


German Corded Ware is modeled as 79.1% Yamnaya, and German Bell Beaker as 50.5% Yamnaya in chapter S9. So you can see a dilution of Yamnaya ancestry from Corded Ware to Bell Beaker. And if the Scottish were nearly pure Bell Beakers from Germany, they might just fit. However, Unetice from the early Bronze Age in central Europe is modeled as 57.1% Yamnaya, and judging from Figure 3 Halberstadt_LBA from late Bronze Age Germany has even more Yamnaya ancestry than Unetice. So whatever Yamnaya ancestry modern Germans may have, Bronze Age central Europeans had more than enough to explain the Yamnaya ancestry in northwestern Europeans.


Indeed, Corded Ware itself didn't expand to northwestern Europe. But neither did Yamnaya! It was post-Corded Ware central Europeans who expanded to northwestern Europe. Obviously they already started doing so in the Bell Beaker period.


And that there were recent founder effects and y-DNA bottlenecks in most European populations is no longer a theory, and neither is the recent rapid bifurcation of R1a and R1b:
http://dienekes.blogspot.com/2015/05/more-y-chromosome-super-fathers.html


Of course there was a massive migration that caused a dramatic autosomal change, but this doesn't preclude that the yDNAs go back to just a couple of successful patriarchs.


Indeed there was Yamnaya in Hungary, possibly with R1b. So it's not impossible that Bell Beaker R1b is from these, though it might just as well be from Corded people. In any case Hungary wasn't overflowing with R1b, that much can be said right now... And as Allentoft et al. have just repeated: The highest level of Yamnaya affinity is found in Corded people, the lowest in Bronze Age Hungary, while German Bell Beakers were intermediate.

Ultimately both Northwest European R1b and Corded Ware R1b were from Yamnaya."
 
Thanks! Keep in mind that my aDNA is more typically North Dutch in stead of South Dutch, and even for North Dutch my results are sometimes more Nordic in the admixtures

Regarding the facts and figures and Halberstadt this is a relevant comment from Simon W on Eurogenes:

" Simon_W said...
@ Colin Welling


According to Haak et al. the Scottish top the list of Yamnaya ancestry on the British Isles with 48.6% according to Figure S9.25. Unfortunately this figure doesn't include Germans and Austrians. It does include Czechs, though, who have slightly more than that, with 48.8%. Now you might rightly object that Czechs, although geographically in central Europe, have eastern European Slavic admixture.


German Corded Ware is modeled as 79.1% Yamnaya, and German Bell Beaker as 50.5% Yamnaya in chapter S9. So you can see a dilution of Yamnaya ancestry from Corded Ware to Bell Beaker. And if the Scottish were nearly pure Bell Beakers from Germany, they might just fit. However, Unetice from the early Bronze Age in central Europe is modeled as 57.1% Yamnaya, and judging from Figure 3 Halberstadt_LBA from late Bronze Age Germany has even more Yamnaya ancestry than Unetice. So whatever Yamnaya ancestry modern Germans may have, Bronze Age central Europeans had more than enough to explain the Yamnaya ancestry in northwestern Europeans.
I'm not too serious about validity of my Models, but it is certainly fun trying to figure possible combinations, that's why I'm doing it. I might be way off sometimes, sometimes probably right on. Few interesting things I learned doing them. One is that there is no way of recreating CW with very high Baloch without using 50% or more Yamnaya. Or recreating LBA/IA "German" without 50% of EEF, because of very high Mediterranean admixture. So there are things that can't be changed and are obvious, but one the other hand exact tuning might be way off.

There is always a question about the Samara Outlier guy. He is quite different than the rest of known Yamnayans. I wonder if he is more like new discovered Ukrainian HG, or he was perhaps from NW Yamnaya population. Well, technically he belongs to Yamnaya Culture, but he is very, very distinct genetically. I can use him to reconstruct Estonia CW and couple of CW Swedes, and receive 90% of Yamnaya admixture in them. When I use typical Yamnaya sample the Baloch and Caucasian shoots way too high and Med drops too low. The problem might be that Yamnaya in Estonia is probably not the same as Yamnaya in Germany, though both sources come from Yamnaya culture. This might be confusing, that's why I avoid calling Samara Outlier, Yamnaya. We might need to rename few things when we have genomes from all the Yamnaya.



And that there were recent founder effects and y-DNA bottlenecks in most European populations is no longer a theory, and neither is the recent rapid bifurcation of R1a and R1b:
http://dienekes.blogspot.com/2015/05/more-y-chromosome-super-fathers.htmlOf course there was a massive migration that caused a dramatic autosomal change, but this doesn't preclude that the yDNAs go back to just a couple of successful patriarchs.


Indeed there was Yamnaya in Hungary, possibly with R1b. So it's not impossible that Bell Beaker R1b is from these, though it might just as well be from Corded people. In any case Hungary wasn't overflowing with R1b, that much can be said right now... And as Allentoft et al. have just repeated: The highest level of Yamnaya affinity is found in Corded people, the lowest in Bronze Age Hungary, while German Bell Beakers were intermediate.

Ultimately both Northwest European R1b and Corded Ware R1b were from Yamnaya.
I agree. Bronze Age in Northern Europe looks like a very crazy period. Whole populations were dying off, and new ones explode from small pockets. Never mind huge invasions to start with.
 
I'm not too serious about validity of my Models, but it is certainly fun trying to figure possible combinations, that's why I'm doing it. I might be way off sometimes, sometimes probably right on. Few interesting things I learned doing them. One is that there is no way of recreating CW with very high Baloch without using 50% or more Yamnaya. Or recreating LBA/IA "German" without 50% of EEF, because of very high Mediterranean admixture. So there are things that can't be changed and are obvious, but one the other hand exact tuning might be way off.

There is always a question about the Samara Outlier guy. He is quite different than the rest of known Yamnayans. I wonder if he is more like new discovered Ukrainian HG, or he was perhaps from NW Yamnaya population. Well, technically he belongs to Yamnaya Culture, but he is very, very distinct genetically. I can use him to reconstruct Estonia CW and couple of CW Swedes, and receive 90% of Yamnaya admixture in them. When I use typical Yamnaya sample the Baloch and Caucasian shoots way too high and Med drops too low. The problem might be that Yamnaya in Estonia is probably not the same as Yamnaya in Germany, though both sources come from Yamnaya culture. This might be confusing, that's why I avoid calling Samara Outlier, Yamnaya. We might need to rename few things when we have genomes from all the Yamnaya.



I agree. Bronze Age in Northern Europe looks like a very crazy period. Whole populations were dying off, and new ones explode from small pockets. Never mind huge invasions to start with.

On second thought. Don't underestimate your ability with facts and figures LeBrok! And of course I know they are tentative. But it gives another perspective. And in interaction with archeological findings you can make an reconstruction. Until new facts and findings can 'overrule' them. There are always new "Samara Outlier guys or girls...."

Two remarks:
1. Looking at my own facts an figures I see that my NE component is higher than in the "Hinxton-Halberstadt" axis! (Although not Hinxton 2 and 5.....).

# Population Percent
1 NE-Euro 55.26 (close to your Polish result!)
2 Mediterranean 28.6
3 Baloch 8.79
4 Caucasian 6.09
5 Papuan 0.77
6 S-Indian 0.49
Due to?
- was my aDNA region North-Dutch a pocket zone of HG (Ertebølle-like)?
- the effect of the Funnelbeaker? Look at this picture again, again Fokkens (2012), the green dots are the Funnel beaker, you don't have to question if the Funnel Beaker had it's impacts lot's of green dots in my region:
wwc95w.png

Which component in your model could cause a higher Harappa NE Europe?

2. Am I right that Single Grave/Corded Ware is more Northeastern Europe and Unetice/Tumulus/Urnfield is more Southeastern Europe. Both can be partly rooted in Yamnaya. But the routes and the (genetical) packages can be partly different. The Unetice/Tumulus/Urnfield has some kind of "pre-celtic" image.
 
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My models are pointing to the fact that West and Central Corded Ware were made mostly of East Yamnaya source, with some additional WHG and EEF. Northern Corded however were mostly made of Yamnaya Outlier (most likely something like Ukrainian HG of West Yamnaya) with a little bit of EEF added. The third group, Baden/Hungarian Bronze Age was made of some mix of half and half of EEF and WHG, possibly a mix that happened in North Cucuteni, and possible enriched by 10% of Anatolia BA. This is my general view of Bronze Age of north Europe.

Two days ago, I did a progress in deciphering LBA/IA Germanics/Saxons. Good results came from mixing German CW with Nordic Farmer and some extra of SHG. The results are very close to modern Dutch, denoting no major changes in this area since IA.

Yesterday I was trying to understand why modern Poles are different than CW or Unetice. Especially ratio of Baloch to Caucasian is flipped and Med is a 3rd lower. I picked the best sample of Unetice (considered the main ancestor) and started to mix it with other guys/girls from same area and timeframe. I started getting good results when added BR2 to the mix, the guy from Baden/Hungarian Bronze Age. What surprised me the most was that I got the best results when I eliminated Unetice completely and added more EHG to the Bronze guy. Here it is:

Unetice0Baden0.7EHG0.3
F999948Rise150, Poland, slask 1750 BCF999933BR2, J-M67M218547I0124Model of modern Polish
Poland, slask 3.75 kya3.5kyaHungary, Ludas-Varjú-dűlő,3.3kyaSamara HG7.6 kyaCompositionMine
Run time8.44Run time15.13Run time5.57Run timeRun time20.5
S-Indian0S-Indian0S-Indian0S-Indian0S-Indian0.62
Baloch14.65Baloch3.15Baloch14.33Baloch6.504Baloch7.47
Caucasian2.73Caucasian14.73Caucasian0Caucasian10.311Caucasian10.05
NE-Euro53.54NE-Euro46.18NE-Euro75.62NE-Euro55.012NE-Euro57.28
SE-Asian0SE-Asian0.2SE-Asian0SE-Asian0.14SE-Asian0.54
Siberian0Siberian0Siberian0Siberian0Siberian1.22
NE-Asian0NE-Asian0NE-Asian0NE-Asian0NE-Asian0.35
Papuan0.48Papuan0.18Papuan0Papuan0.126Papuan-
American0.22American0American9.62American2.886American-
Beringian0.49Beringian0Beringian0.15Beringian0.045Beringian0.07
Mediterranean27.12Mediterranean31.73Mediterranean0Mediterranean22.211Mediterranean21.53
SW-Asian0SW-Asian3.33SW-Asian0SW-Asian2.331SW-Asian0.86
San0San0San0San0San-
E-African0.34E-African0E-African0E-African0E-African-
Pygmy0Pygmy0Pygmy0Pygmy0Pygmy-
W-African0.42W-African0.48W-African0.2W-African0.396W-African-

It was shocking, I didn't expect this at all. Then I remembered this map I've seen some time ago about BR2 connection to modern Poland.


F3.large.jpg



Samara HG in my model is the EHG, not the Outlier. It is the best proxy so far, and I think the true source should be EHG from North who instead of American admixture had Syberian (the Finnish type?)

This Hungarian Bronze was very influential all over the Europe even in Anatolia. Was it connected to Celts, Italics, Dacians, Slavs? On other hand Eastern Yamnaya/Unetice was more of Germanic/Insular Celtic story? Also the East Yamnaya/Germany doesn't have any presence in Asia at all these days. On other hand BR2/West Yamnaya penetrates into the Asia. (IE?)

The final changes of Germanic/Yours genome and admixtures should have something to do with this Hungarian Bronze age spread. I speculate that this happened after BA collapse in Iron Age, with final stage much later with East Germanic and Slavic expansions.
 
This Hungarian Bronze was very influential all over the Europe even in Anatolia. Was it connected to Celts, Italics, Dacians, Slavs? On other hand Eastern Yamnaya/Unetice was more of Germanic/Insular Celtic story? Also the East Yamnaya/Germany doesn't have any presence in Asia at all these days. On other hand BR2/West Yamnaya penetrates into the Asia. (IE?)

The final changes of Germanic/Yours genome and admixtures should have something to do with this Hungarian Bronze age spread. I speculate that this happened after BA collapse in Iron Age, with final stage much later with East Germanic and Slavic expansions.

Bull's eye! But the timing must be earlier. What in Polen is the case is indeed a big puzzle..... But for the Elp culture c.q. Sögeler Kreis (my aDNA region) the 'Hungarian influence' is very very clear!

See above the quote from prof. Fokkens about the Sôgel warrior/chieftain grave. This Sögel warrior is connected with the Tumulus culture.
And guess what on the German and Dutch wikipedia it's stated that the type of swords of the Sögel warrior is rooted, or even produced, in eastern Hungary!

What about an old posting on Eupedia from 20-09-11, 21:36 #1
Asturrulumbo
"It has been proposed that R1b-U106 was diffused during the Iron Age Hallstatt Culture. I think it may have been earlier, in the Bronze Age, more specifically with the expansion of the Tumulus Culture.
Here's what the Celtic Encyclopedia has to say about the Tumulus Culture:
The Tumulus Culture was recognized for its use of the single grave with a covering mound. The warriors of the Tumulus Culture were highland horse-riding cattle-herders and lived in fortified villages. Like their predecessors the Unetice, the Tumulus Culture was well-situated to receive stimuli from other regions via the established overland trade routes.
Between BC 1800 to BC 1200, Unetice-Tumulus, highland warriors began to appear in the west of Europe. They were well-armed and they spread the use of the tumulus from Bohemia to the Rhine north of the Main, then into Switzerland, Belgium, Britain and Ireland. The tumulus was in vogue for most of Europe during the Middle Bronze Age.
The tumuli of the Tumulus Culture were very similar to those of the Goidel, Unetice, Wessex and Aremorican in form but in content and number they were quite different. Grave evidence has shown that the four groups were different cultures practising a similar Burial style.
The Bavarian group was recognized for its long swords with solid hilts. Excavation of the tumuli of Hungary exposed battle axes, while the Danube groups were noted for sickle-shaped dress pins and baked clay altars with decorations of horn, boats and triangles. the tumuli of eastern France revealed bodies lying in their back in an east-west direction with the head toward the rising sun. Grave goods included pottery with designs reminiscent of the older wooden cups. Boars were an important part of the grave goods in France. In the north, objects of sun worship have been found.
The early tumulus graves contained inhumed bodies but later graves contained cremated bodies as the transition to the Urnfield Culture began. The gods were shown as symbols rather than abstracted images. The sun god was represented by the sun wheel or the left-facing swastika of the Kurgan culture, which was used by the Celts and others from India to Ireland. The fire goddess was represented by the triangle or the right-facing swastika.
The people of the Tumulus Culture developed a profitable bronze industry in weapons, jewelry and tools. During BC 15th-12th centuries, Tumulus-Urnfield warriors raided east through Thrace and Illyria, crossed the Strait of Bosporus to Anatolia, then wreaked havoc in Syria, Palestine, and Egypt.
The Egyptians referred to this group as the Sea Peoples and many of them worked as mercenaries for the Phoenicians who were developing their commercial trade route throughout the Mediterranean and into the Atlantic. They were described as ferocious warriors who wore their hair in a very stiff style.
Alright, so, ¿why have the Tumulus culture as a canditate for the northern spread of U106? There are many reasons. First of all, there are archaeological reasons: R1b1a, a haplogroup sometimes assumed to have gotten to W. Europe more from the southwest than the northwest, probably thus entered Northern Europe from the south. The northern expansion of the Tumulus culture could be seen as just that (it could have had a Founder Effect in those areas), as the earlier Unetice Culture was more localized around Bohemia. The Urnfield and Hallstatt cultures also saw expansions to the north, but what I believe is a telling point against these cultures is that if theirs was the expansion."

Close to the fire?
 
M

The final changes of Germanic/Yours genome and admixtures should have something to do with this Hungarian Bronze age spread. I speculate that this happened after BA collapse in Iron Age, with final stage much later with East Germanic and Slavic expansions.

One add in the making of the swords this is on the Dutch wiki about the Sögel Kreis even connected with the Poltavka cuture so how close do we get to the Yamnaya heirs ;)
 
My models are pointing to the fact that West and Central Corded Ware were made mostly of East Yamnaya source, with some additional WHG and EEF. Northern Corded however were mostly made of Yamnaya Outlier (most likely something like Ukrainian HG of West Yamnaya) with a little bit of EEF added. The third group, Baden/Hungarian Bronze Age was made of some mix of half and half of EEF and WHG, possibly a mix that happened in North Cucuteni, and possible enriched by 10% of Anatolia BA. This is my general view of Bronze Age of north Europe.

Two days ago, I did a progress in deciphering LBA/IA Germanics/Saxons. Good results came from mixing German CW with Nordic Farmer and some extra of SHG. The results are very close to modern Dutch, denoting no major changes in this area since IA.

Yesterday I was trying to understand why modern Poles are different than CW or Unetice. Especially ratio of Baloch to Caucasian is flipped and Med is a 3rd lower. I picked the best sample of Unetice (considered the main ancestor) and started to mix it with other guys/girls from same area and timeframe. I started getting good results when added BR2 to the mix, the guy from Baden/Hungarian Bronze Age. What surprised me the most was that I got the best results when I eliminated Unetice completely and added more EHG to the Bronze guy. Here it is:

Unetice0Baden0.7EHG0.3
F999948Rise150, Poland, slask 1750 BCF999933BR2, J-M67M218547I0124Model of modern Polish
Poland, slask 3.75 kya3.5kyaHungary, Ludas-Varjú-dűlő,3.3kyaSamara HG7.6 kyaCompositionMine
Run time8.44Run time15.13Run time5.57Run timeRun time20.5
S-Indian0S-Indian0S-Indian0S-Indian0S-Indian0.62
Baloch14.65Baloch3.15Baloch14.33Baloch6.504Baloch7.47
Caucasian2.73Caucasian14.73Caucasian0Caucasian10.311Caucasian10.05
NE-Euro53.54NE-Euro46.18NE-Euro75.62NE-Euro55.012NE-Euro57.28
SE-Asian0SE-Asian0.2SE-Asian0SE-Asian0.14SE-Asian0.54
Siberian0Siberian0Siberian0Siberian0Siberian1.22
NE-Asian0NE-Asian0NE-Asian0NE-Asian0NE-Asian0.35
Papuan0.48Papuan0.18Papuan0Papuan0.126Papuan-
American0.22American0American9.62American2.886American-
Beringian0.49Beringian0Beringian0.15Beringian0.045Beringian0.07
Mediterranean27.12Mediterranean31.73Mediterranean0Mediterranean22.211Mediterranean21.53
SW-Asian0SW-Asian3.33SW-Asian0SW-Asian2.331SW-Asian0.86
San0San0San0San0San-
E-African0.34E-African0E-African0E-African0E-African-
Pygmy0Pygmy0Pygmy0Pygmy0Pygmy-
W-African0.42W-African0.48W-African0.2W-African0.396W-African-

It was shocking, I didn't expect this at all. Then I remembered this map I've seen some time ago about BR2 connection to modern Poland.


F3.large.jpg



Samara HG in my model is the EHG, not the Outlier. It is the best proxy so far, and I think the true source should be EHG from North who instead of American admixture had Syberian (the Finnish type?)

This Hungarian Bronze was very influential all over the Europe even in Anatolia. Was it connected to Celts, Italics, Dacians, Slavs? On other hand Eastern Yamnaya/Unetice was more of Germanic/Insular Celtic story? Also the East Yamnaya/Germany doesn't have any presence in Asia at all these days. On other hand BR2/West Yamnaya penetrates into the Asia. (IE?)

The final changes of Germanic/Yours genome and admixtures should have something to do with this Hungarian Bronze age spread. I speculate that this happened after BA collapse in Iron Age, with final stage much later with East Germanic and Slavic expansions.

That's very interesting LeBrok, but if your second scenario were correct, and the modern Polish genome is Bronze Age Hungarian plus EHG, then wouldn't that imply that modern Polish genomes don't really descend from Yamnaya in the sense that they don't descend from that admixed population in the eastern steppe identified by people like David Anthony as being the epicenter of the "Indo-Europeans"? Or maybe I'm not understanding you correctly.

Of course, I was thinking of this in connection to Italian genetics, and it's been assumed, I think, that the Italics, for example, were tied to Unetice, yes? Yet it's true that most Italians, I think, from what I've seen here of personal results, and from the graphics above, were heavily influenced by Bronze Age Hungarian, much more so than any other Bronze Age populations.

I've been intrigued since I saw that graphic because this Bronze Age Hungarian admixture is particularly strong in my own area of eastern Liguria, far northwestern Toscana. If an additional surge came with Goths, Lombards, and given all the Lombard castles in our area, that might make sense.

The Insular Celt might have arrived with the first millennium BC Gallic migrations, which can be seen in the Rathlin diagram.
 
That's very interesting LeBrok, but if your second scenario were correct, and the modern Polish genome is Bronze Age Hungarian plus EHG, then wouldn't that imply that modern Polish genomes don't really descend from Yamnaya in the sense that they don't descend from that admixed population in the eastern steppe identified by people like David Anthony as being the epicenter of the "Indo-Europeans"? Or maybe I'm not understanding you correctly.
It's correct. I'm still surprised that the numbers took me there. There is also a chance that with time, due to DNA mutations and new alleles, one admixture transformed into other. Perhaps Baloch turned into Caucasian? Otherwise what could have happened to all the Baloch of Yamnaya, high as 33%. It is at 5% in today's Russia, Poland and Ukraine. Same story with 10% of American admixture in Yamnaya and Samara. It doesn't even show at 1% in said area.

Of course, I was thinking of this in connection to Italian genetics, and it's been assumed, I think, that the Italics, for example, were tied to Unetice, yes? Yet it's true that most Italians, I think, from what I've seen here of personal results, and from the graphics above, were heavily influenced by Bronze Age Hungarian, much more so than any other Bronze Age populations.

I've been intrigued since I saw that graphic because this Bronze Age Hungarian admixture is particularly strong in my own area of eastern Liguria, far northwestern Toscana. If an additional surge came with Goths, Lombards, and given all the Lombard castles in our area, that might make sense.

The Insular Celt might have arrived with the first millennium BC Gallic migrations, which can be seen in the Rathlin diagram.
We could compose moder NW Italians like this:

0.30.50.2
Remedello Average F999933 BR2, J-M67 M536324 I1658 Italian Model Modern NW Italian
Hungary, Ludas-Varjú-dűlő, 3.3kya Armenia EBA Composition
Run time Run time 15.13 Run time 8.22 Run time Run time
S-Indian - S-Indian - S-Indian 0.27 S-Indian 0.05 S-Indian -
Baloch - Baloch 3.15 Baloch 25.53 Baloch 6.68 Baloch 6.00
Caucasian 11.03 Caucasian 14.73 Caucasian 56.75 Caucasian 22.02 Caucasian 20.00
NE-Euro 21.25 NE-Euro 46.18 NE-Euro 4.79 NE-Euro 30.42 NE-Euro 33.00
SE-Asian 0.61 SE-Asian 0.20 SE-Asian - SE-Asian 0.28 SE-Asian 0.61
Siberian - Siberian - Siberian - Siberian - Siberian -
NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian -
Papuan - Papuan 0.18 Papuan - Papuan 0.09 Papuan -
American - American - American - American - American -
Beringian - Beringian - Beringian - Beringian - Beringian -
Mediterranean 60.61 Mediterranean 31.73 Mediterranean 5.88 Mediterranean 35.22 Mediterranean 34.00
SW-Asian 5.50 SW-Asian 3.33 SW-Asian 6.45 SW-Asian 4.60 SW-Asian 6.00
San - San - San - San - San -
E-African - E-African - E-African - E-African - E-African -
Pygmy 0.08 Pygmy - Pygmy - Pygmy 0.03 Pygmy -
W-African 0.92 W-African 0.48 W-African 0.33 W-African 0.58 W-African -



This is roughly 50% EEF, 25% WHG, and 25% BA Armenian (Part of Yamnaya admixture?, ANE). One problem is that in South Europe Caucasian admixture is so high, that I always need to go to the source (Armenia) to get enough. BR2 is also modeled with 10% Armenia to help his high Caucasian, the rest was 40%EEF, and 50%WHG. Now we need to find a huge invasion from Armenia/Anatolia during Bronze Age to prove me right. ;)
 
It's correct. I'm still surprised that the numbers took me there. There is also a chance that with time, due to DNA mutations and new alleles, one admixture transformed into other. Perhaps Baloch turned into Caucasian? Otherwise what could have happened to all the Baloch of Yamnaya, high as 33%. It is at 5% in today's Russia, Poland and Ukraine. Same story with 10% of American admixture in Yamnaya and Samara. It doesn't even show at 1% in said area.


We could compose moder NW Italians like this:

0.30.50.2
Remedello Average F999933 BR2, J-M67 M536324 I1658 Italian Model Modern NW Italian
Hungary, Ludas-Varjú-dűlő, 3.3kya Armenia EBA Composition
Run time Run time 15.13 Run time 8.22 Run time Run time
S-Indian - S-Indian - S-Indian 0.27 S-Indian 0.05 S-Indian -
Baloch - Baloch 3.15 Baloch 25.53 Baloch 6.68 Baloch 6.00
Caucasian 11.03 Caucasian 14.73 Caucasian 56.75 Caucasian 22.02 Caucasian 20.00
NE-Euro 21.25 NE-Euro 46.18 NE-Euro 4.79 NE-Euro 30.42 NE-Euro 33.00
SE-Asian 0.61 SE-Asian 0.20 SE-Asian - SE-Asian 0.28 SE-Asian 0.61
Siberian - Siberian - Siberian - Siberian - Siberian -
NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian -
Papuan - Papuan 0.18 Papuan - Papuan 0.09 Papuan -
American - American - American - American - American -
Beringian - Beringian - Beringian - Beringian - Beringian -
Mediterranean 60.61 Mediterranean 31.73 Mediterranean 5.88 Mediterranean 35.22 Mediterranean 34.00
SW-Asian 5.50 SW-Asian 3.33 SW-Asian 6.45 SW-Asian 4.60 SW-Asian 6.00
San - San - San - San - San -
E-African - E-African - E-African - E-African - E-African -
Pygmy 0.08 Pygmy - Pygmy - Pygmy 0.03 Pygmy -
W-African 0.92 W-African 0.48 W-African 0.33 W-African 0.58 W-African -
This is roughly 50% EEF, 25% WHG, and 25% BA Armenian (Part of Yamnaya admixture?, ANE). One problem is that in South Europe Caucasian admixture is so high, that I always need to go to the source (Armenia) to get enough. BR2 is also modeled with 10% Armenia to help his high Caucasian, the rest was 40%EEF, and 50%WHG. Now we need to find a huge invasion from Armenia/Anatolia during Bronze Age to prove me right. ;)

I've been saying for years (often to the usual suspect(s) if you remember :))that the elevated "Caucasus" which showed up in southern Italy in analyses like 23andme could have been in part a movement from Crete/Greece, which was evidenced in archaeology through pottery etc. although there's really no sign of mass turnover. (On the other hand, once you get past the Pannonian plain, there's no obvious signs of mass turnover in central and northern Europe either.) The Caucasus levels in southern Italy are approximately the same as those in Greece, even with the Slavic migrations into Greece, and with the fact that the Greek samples usually used are from Thessaly in the north. (Other admixture analyses show elevated Caucasus even in northern Italy as your own analysis shows.)

The evidence that is accumulating seems to support my initial speculation that in that period of history there was an explosion of both genes and technology from both the north and south Caucasus in many directions. It set up ripple effects where other peoples were absorbed, in some cases adopting Indo-European languages. The process and the admixture levels with actual "Yamnaya" people were different in each place. It's not one distinct ethnicity traveling unchanged throughout the world. That was heresy for some people when I said it then, but I think it might turn out to be true.

Coming back specifically to your analysis, what then would have been the autosomal composition of the Italics, the people who would have presumably brought Indo-European languages to Italy? Where is EHG hiding in your components. After all, there are areas in Italy with 60% and more R1b. Also, how did the Bronze Age sample get his "Armenian" ancestry? Did the movement from the South Caucasus, perhaps along the northern part of Anatolia and across the Hellespont into Europe reach Central Europe? Or, was there an unsampled population somewhere around the Black Sea which spoke an Indo-European language, but which had a lot of Caucasus, more than Corded Ware, say, and some of the "elevated" Caucasus in Italy, Greece, the Balkans etc. comes from them?
 
My models are pointing to the fact that West and Central Corded Ware were made mostly of East Yamnaya source, with some additional WHG and EEF. Northern Corded however were mostly made of Yamnaya Outlier (most likely something like Ukrainian HG of West Yamnaya) with a little bit of EEF added. The third group, Baden/Hungarian Bronze Age was made of some mix of half and half of EEF and WHG, possibly a mix that happened in North Cucuteni, and possible enriched by 10% of Anatolia BA. This is my general view of Bronze Age of north Europe.

Two days ago, I did a progress in deciphering LBA/IA Germanics/Saxons. Good results came from mixing German CW with Nordic Farmer and some extra of SHG. The results are very close to modern Dutch, denoting no major changes in this area since IA.

Yesterday I was trying to understand why modern Poles are different than CW or Unetice. Especially ratio of Baloch to Caucasian is flipped and Med is a 3rd lower. I picked the best sample of Unetice (considered the main ancestor) and started to mix it with other guys/girls from same area and timeframe. I started getting good results when added BR2 to the mix, the guy from Baden/Hungarian Bronze Age. What surprised me the most was that I got the best results when I eliminated Unetice completely and added more EHG to the Bronze guy. Here it is:

Unetice0Baden0.7EHG0.3
F999948Rise150, Poland, slask 1750 BCF999933BR2, J-M67M218547I0124Model of modern Polish
Poland, slask 3.75 kya3.5kyaHungary, Ludas-Varjú-dűlő,3.3kyaSamara HG7.6 kyaCompositionMine
Run time8.44Run time15.13Run time5.57Run timeRun time20.5
S-Indian0S-Indian0S-Indian0S-Indian0S-Indian0.62
Baloch14.65Baloch3.15Baloch14.33Baloch6.504Baloch7.47
Caucasian2.73Caucasian14.73Caucasian0Caucasian10.311Caucasian10.05
NE-Euro53.54NE-Euro46.18NE-Euro75.62NE-Euro55.012NE-Euro57.28
SE-Asian0SE-Asian0.2SE-Asian0SE-Asian0.14SE-Asian0.54
Siberian0Siberian0Siberian0Siberian0Siberian1.22
NE-Asian0NE-Asian0NE-Asian0NE-Asian0NE-Asian0.35
Papuan0.48Papuan0.18Papuan0Papuan0.126Papuan-
American0.22American0American9.62American2.886American-
Beringian0.49Beringian0Beringian0.15Beringian0.045Beringian0.07
Mediterranean27.12Mediterranean31.73Mediterranean0Mediterranean22.211Mediterranean21.53
SW-Asian0SW-Asian3.33SW-Asian0SW-Asian2.331SW-Asian0.86
San0San0San0San0San-
E-African0.34E-African0E-African0E-African0E-African-
Pygmy0Pygmy0Pygmy0Pygmy0Pygmy-
W-African0.42W-African0.48W-African0.2W-African0.396W-African-

It was shocking, I didn't expect this at all. Then I remembered this map I've seen some time ago about BR2 connection to modern Poland.


F3.large.jpg



Samara HG in my model is the EHG, not the Outlier. It is the best proxy so far, and I think the true source should be EHG from North who instead of American admixture had Syberian (the Finnish type?)

This Hungarian Bronze was very influential all over the Europe even in Anatolia. Was it connected to Celts, Italics, Dacians, Slavs? On other hand Eastern Yamnaya/Unetice was more of Germanic/Insular Celtic story? Also the East Yamnaya/Germany doesn't have any presence in Asia at all these days. On other hand BR2/West Yamnaya penetrates into the Asia. (IE?)

The final changes of Germanic/Yours genome and admixtures should have something to do with this Hungarian Bronze age spread. I speculate that this happened after BA collapse in Iron Age, with final stage much later with East Germanic and Slavic expansions.


Again this is very exciting (for me)! At the end of the Bronze Age, Northwestern Europe and especially the Elp culture area; North Dutch, Northwest Germany and Jutland. This culture had always an in between germanic-celtic image. Like for example the Cimbri. About the old-Frisians: same story.

The "hungarian-bronze age" gave definitely a push in the development of the Nordic Bronze Age. The Sögel warriors had this type of swords:
1zyy3d0.jpg


Wiki: "Swords found together with the Nebra skydisk, ca. 1600 BC. Typologically, these swords are of the Sögel type, but their shape and decoration shows influence of the Hajdúsámson-Apa type found in Hungary."

and
"Typologically, the swords from Nebra and Vreta belong to the Sögel blades, which copy the shape and decoration of Hajdúsámson-Apa swords [...] Concerning the provenance of the swords, the area between the rivers Danube and Tisza in present-day Hungary and Romania has been suggested, as also the production in present Germany [...] Vandkilde (1996:240) proposed that these swords and daggers of the Sögel and Wohlde type in southern Jutland could have been manufactured locally." Roland Schwab, Inga Ullén, Christian-Heinrich Wunderlich, A sword from Vreta Kloster, and black patinated bronze in Early Bronze Age Europe, Journal of Nordic Archaeological Science 17, 27–35 (2010)."

These Sögel warrior were all well groomed with Mycenaean kind of razor blades, see:
https://www.cambridge.org/core/jour...lifestylediv/E7C1E8A4C0C0F3FC14D54427C83BF046
http://dc.uwm.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1505&context=etd

and a dissertation about women in the Sögel Bronze Age:
http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:197017/FULLTEXT01.pdf

I could go on....

It would be nice if in a paper genetics (facts and figures) and archeological findings could come together. Kurgan 2.0?

About your last remark LeBrok: "Now we need to find a huge invasion from Armenia/Anatolia during Bronze Age to prove me right. ;)" May be this article (I only scanned it) can give some clues: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0128810
 
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One problem is that in South Europe Caucasian admixture is so high, that I always need to go to the source (Armenia) to get enough. BR2 is also modeled with 10% Armenia to help his high Caucasian, the rest was 40%EEF, and 50%WHG. Now we need to find a huge invasion from Armenia/Anatolia during Bronze Age to prove me right. ;)

Later metal age immigration from the Near East into Europe is to be expected. One such migration could have followed the spread of the long sword made of arsenical bronze from Alaca Höyük in the middle of the third millennium BC, which subsequently spread into the Caucasus, the Levant & the Aegean. I suppose the widespread use of long swords would confer a significant advantage to the people who already produced them when the rest of the world still used daggers.

The problem is that at this point migrations would have become harder to trace, as they wouldn't necessarily have been accompanied by a characteristic inventory of pottery & other material goods as was the case with earlier movements of peoples into sparsely populated areas. As much as I don't like the idea, with the advent of more sophisticated weaponry roaming warbands and elite dominance might have actually been a more frequent occurrence.

This is a good summary of the sword evidence: https://books.google.de/books?id=WX...r_esc=y#v=onepage&q=Alaca Höyük sword&f=false

It seems the route was either Anatolia or Levant (the authors suggest Lebanon) -> Crete -> Aegean

BR2's Y-DNA might be evidence of an eastern migration, though autosomally he's already fully European, isn't he?
 
All interesting comments and good questions. I will respond later when I have time to wrap my mind around it. Don't expect too much. The numbers took me in different direction than I expected, and I'm dealing with 4 different Bronze Age sources of population to reconcile, explain Yamnaya (or Ymanya like) signal in all Europe, and decide who IEs were. It was easy before; IE Yamnayans conquered the whole Europe and Central/South Asia, that's why everybody speaks IE language. The problem is that when Yamnaya culture ended, typical genetically Yamnayan stopped existing right away too, and was gone forever. Unlike Anatolian Farmers who spread wide and didn't lose their strong genetic signature for thousands of years.

Perhaps in some papers direct East Yamnaya genetics is overestimated, because it blends (overlaps genetically) to a very high degree with WHG (high NE Euro in both) and with Armenian Bronze (Baloch and Caucasian). So perhaps saying that modern Poles are 50% Yamnaya or Italians are 25% Yamnaya, denoting direct ancestry from East Yamnaya, we should be rather saying that they have 50% and 25% same DNA as East Yamnaya, which doesn't point to direct genetic transfer. It implies only common genetic sources for both, like WHG, CHG and the h-gs with lots of Baloch. This could be the same phenomenon making Ashkenazy Jews genetically like Sicilians, though they didn't "grew up" together.

Having said that, to be well understood, and assuming that my models are roughly right, they don't negate a possibility that all Europeans might have direct East Yamnaya ancestry, though it will be impossible to implement them into models in higher than 10% amount, except in North West Europe.
 
All interesting comments and good questions. I will respond later when I have time to wrap my mind around it. Don't expect too much. The numbers took me in different direction than I expected, and I'm dealing with 4 different Bronze Age sources of population to reconcile, explain Yamnaya (or Ymanya like) signal in all Europe, and decide who IEs were. It was easy before; IE Yamnayans conquered the whole Europe and Central/South Asia, that's why everybody speaks IE language. The problem is that when Yamnaya culture ended, typical genetically Yamnayan stopped existing right away too, and was gone forever. Unlike Anatolian Farmers who spread wide and didn't lose their strong genetic signature for thousands of years.

Perhaps in some papers direct East Yamnaya genetics is overestimated, because it blends (overlaps genetically) to a very high degree with WHG (high NE Euro in both) and with Armenian Bronze (Baloch and Caucasian). So perhaps saying that modern Poles are 50% Yamnaya or Italians are 25% Yamnaya, denoting direct ancestry from East Yamnaya, we should be rather saying that they have 50% and 25% same DNA as East Yamnaya, which doesn't point to direct genetic transfer. It implies only common genetic sources for both, like WHG, CHG and the h-gs with lots of Baloch. This could be the same phenomenon making Ashkenazy Jews genetically like Sicilians, though they didn't "grew up" together.

Having said that, to be well understood, and assuming that my models are roughly right, they don't negate a possibility that all Europeans might have direct East Yamnaya ancestry, though it will be impossible to implement them into models in higher than 10% amount, except in North West Europe.

Well, I'm glad I'm not the only one here now who thinks that's a possibility. :)
 

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