Health New Coronavirus in China

British Airways has temporarily suspended all flights to and from mainland China, and Brits repatriated from Wuhan are being put in quarantine for two weeks.

Hong Kong has closed rail and ferry service with China.

It's probably too little too late.

In a macabre side note, all the Starbucks in China have closed. All movie theaters were previously closed. At least in the greater Wuhan area, which covers about 20 million people, no one is going to work and the supermarket shelves are empty.

Their economy is going to take a huge hit.

These poor people. So what if most of the deaths are in people over 55. Do they want to get really sick and worry about their parents or grandparents dying if they contract it as well?

They must be terrified.
 
Italian government has just declared a six month special emergency.
First cases of coronavirus reported in Rome : they are a married couple fron Whuan. They landed in Milan about ten days ago with an organized tour . Then visited some sites in the north and then came to Rome. I wonder how many people have been infected since.
Vaccine likely ready for late spring or early summer.
 
Angela said:
Well, I don't see Coronavirus showing up in the U.S. and Britain, and we eat a lot of meat.

The point is you can't eat wild animals which are known to harbor terrible viruses, like snake (in this case, they think), or marmots (source of the plague), or monkeys (probably the source of Ebola). The Chinese eat all sorts of wild animals which are not consumed in the west.

Plus, the hygiene there is horrendous. I have a number of very well traveled friends who have been to China, and, having been warned, they brought canned food with them. They said they were so thankful people had told them to bring it, because after seeing the meat markets and pig pens and chicken runs they were appalled.

Chickens, for example, are not clean animals under the best of circumstances. Didn't SARS start in fowl? My mother treated them like toxic waste, soaking them in a salt water brine before cooking them and bleaching all the surfaces which came into contact with them. On her farm, they were handled outdoors, for that very reason. She had lots of rules like that, probably from growing up on a farm: take your shoes off when you come in, wash your hands well as soon as you come indoors, use salt water or vinegar and water to disinfect surfaces, never sneeze into the air, use a handkerchief or at least cough into your sleeve, etc. I follow them all.

Turns out she was even right that your immune system gets weaker if you get suddenly cold. That one I didn't believe, but she was right about that too.

I wouldn't last long in countries without good hygiene. I couldn't even deal with Mexico; got really ill both times I went. So, I've never felt the slightest interest in going to some of these more "exotic" places. Turns out I was right. Imagine being trapped there while all this is going on.
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Two observations. When I was in the Navy we made a port call in Hong Kong. A buddy of mine, for some unknown reason, steered me through a local meat market and, even though this was back when the Brits were in charge, the sights were appalling. Some were simply a difference of Eastern and Western attitudes about the treatment of animals, but the filth and the flies, etc., resting on the haunches of meat put me off my lunch.

Second, we made a port call in Karachi. We were warned not to eat or drink while ashore; I got a canned beer at the embassy however, : ). A couple of cruiser commanders were invited to the restaurant at the Intercontinental hotel for a formal dinner and decided the food must be safe, it's a western hotel after all! They paid with several weeks confined to their quarters and the head (navalese for WC).

Travel is broadening, but one of the things you learn is that "you're not in Kansas anymore" and precautions need to be taken.
 
angela said:
sorry. That's how 1/4 to 1/3 of all europeans died from the plague during the middle ages.

I'm not equating the severity of the diseases by any means, but sound public health policy always demands quarantine.

China should be quarantined until its under control.

Send supplies, technology, volunteer health professionals, whatever is necessary, but people traveling from china should not be allowed into our countries, period.
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100% agreed!!!!
 
New study states that R factor is 4.08, which is sky high ------>

for some reason, the links that I post do not work???!!!

So if interested, go to the website MedRxiv.org

The article is entitled "Estimating the Effective Reproduction Number of the 2019-nCoV in China

The lead author is Zhidong Cao
 
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Coronavirus, last minute: Health confirms the first case in Spain: a German in La Gomera
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The first confirmed case in Spain is that of one of the five Germans who were under observation in La Gomera, and who had had contact with an infected person in their country

The National Center for Microbiology confirms the first case of coronavirus in Spain: a German in La Gomera. According to the statement, the patient is under observation.


https://www.elmundo.es/salud/2020/01/31/5e3463effdddfffa7a8b45ac.html
 
There is a very good explanation from MedCram how this novel coronavirus can spread https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nW3xqcGidpQ
There is specifically about this event (at 5:47) how Germans and now how it turns out Spanish people contracted the virus.

What is interesting is that people can be shedding the virus not only before they develop symptoms, but also after they recover from illness. Perhaps it is only those who undergo mild symptoms, however, in such case there are lots of possibilities for the virus to spread.
I wonder if current testing can detect the virus in those who don't have symptoms but have the virus and are contagious. It seems that it is not possible now, otherwise why would all those evacuated people would be held quarantined if they could just be tested for safety purposes.
 
bicicleur said:
controll Chinese style :
a voice-activated drone urges these pedestrians and old ladies to wear masks outside, go home and wash their hands
they probably also lost a few points for bad behaviour and their mobility and freedom will be further restricted

https://www.hln.be/nieuws/buitenlan...I3UgOgAFpToWZGiJ4qf9TTYg5hDR0BuDLd-458qqUStEo

after a while the video starts
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according to other comments, the drone was steered by an influencer who probably thought it's funny, not by chinese authorities.
 
"“It’s very, very transmissible, and it almost certainly is going to be a pandemic,” said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease.
“But will it be catastrophic? I don’t know.”
In the last three weeks, the number of lab-confirmed cases has soared from about 50 in China to more than 17,000 in at least 23 countries; there have been more than 360 deaths."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/health/coronavirus-pandemic-china.html

The actual number is probably over 100,000 people.
Right now, the death rate is about 2%, but hopefully it will drop if
they can get a handle on how many people have had a mild version.

At slightly over a 2% death rate, the "Spanish" flu of the early 20th century killed millions around the globe.

What the paper doesn't mention, but which I hope they're investigating is that immunity to it, or at least better immunity to it may differ among ethnic groups.

China's handling of a series of viruses arising in their country.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/27...m_source=twitter&utm_campaign=twitter_organic

The following report by a news agency from within China was censored. I sure hope they're wrong.
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=http://archive.is/ObawP

It's also not reassuring that Chinese authorities are enforcing quick cremation for all remains. Isn't that a bit much if it's just like a new strain of influenza?




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Unbelievable, Spanish flu indeed was of a similar mortality rate to this novel coronavirus about 2%, though it varied (depending on a region and if people were exposed to the first, less deadly wave).

05-0979-F1.gif

from https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/1/05-0979-f1

Before I googled about the figures, I was sure that Spanish flu must have been more mortal, as it is indicated in a recent NY time article about various infectious deceases...
View attachment 11788
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html
 
Angela said:
"

It's also not reassuring that Chinese authorities are enforcing quick cremation for all remains. Isn't that a bit much if it's just like a new strain of influenza?

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In case of Ebola, dead bodies were very much contagious. I am not sure how it is in case of this novel coronavirus. It is heart breaking for the families of the deceased, but, I guess it is done as a measure of precaution.

Besides, the novel coronavirus may be spreading a lot through surfaces, it was attested that this coronavirus stayed on doorknob, for instance

According to a study of 2010, some coronaviruses may stay infectious in cold weather (4C) up to 28 days, which is much different compared to human flu or cold viruses https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2863430/

Another way of getting the infection in case of SARS was through fecal - oral way, where one infected person spread the virus to around 200 people because he had a diarrhoea and it somehow infected the air ventilation system of the house.
 
A scientific paper just released emphasizes that mutation changes could significantly increase the transmissibility of the disease and must be carefully monitored.

"“Alarmingly, our data predict that a single mutation [at a specific spot in the genome] could significantly enhance [the Wuhan coronavirus’s] ability to bind with human ACE2,” the investigators write. For this reason, Wuhan coronavirus evolution in patients should be closely monitored for the emergence of novel mutations at the 501 position in its genome, and to a lesser extent, the 494 position, in order to predict the possibility of a more serious outbreak than has been seen so far."

Figures for today show the fatality rate to be holding at 2%, but hopefully it's less because some people didn't know they had it and so aren't included in the reported cases.

As well as age (the average age of the people who have died is 55), smoking or having smoked for a considerable amount of time seems to be the biggest factor.
 
According to one news coverage, this coronavirus may be some 200 times more dangerous than common flu, because fatality of common flue is often only about .01% (compared to the current rate of 2% in coronavirus).

Even if actual fatality rate of coronavirus is about 0.5%, it is much more dangerous than flue because it is more contagious, people don't have immunity, and 25%-20% will develop serious complications like pneumonia where supporting lung ventilation is needed. If this novel coronavirus spreads like seasonal flue, health care systems will be fully overburdened to deal with it in any, even the most developed country.

Usually the viruses tend to mutate so that they can spread more easy, but at the same time they are usually less deadly. For instance, Ebola had somewhere like 90% fatality, but more recent versions it were already 25%- 50%. On the other hand, Spanish flue mutated from a less sever version to a more sever pandemic, therefore it is difficult to be sure.
So it is better to avoid it, like it was dealt with with SARS. Overall, I really feel sorry about Chinese people who are likely to suffer from it for some time until it is somehow will be harnessed.
 
I have no idea what to think anymore about the fatality rate, Dagne, because I don't think we have accurate numbers. The Chinese government had reprimanded a doctor in December for "rumor" mongering when he expressed concern to other doctors about a strange new "pneumonia" showing up. (He has since died of it.) So, are we really likely to get good numbers? Plus, the number of body bags being ordered is worrying.

On the other hand, how many people got sick and thought it was flu, or were pretty ill but afraid to report it?

I also completely agree with you that the overburdening of the health care system will up the fatality rate. The grandmother of a famous Chinese musician died at home after being repeatedly turned away from the hospital. Containment in hospitals is just not feasible any longer, so sick people are being sent home to infect their families.

They just can't cope. I don't know if any country could...

In another bizarre twist the government announced that house to house temperature checks will be conducted. Honestly, that's also completely infeasible. Plus, given there's no room in the hospitals, are they going to seal up the house and let everyone inside get sick or not, and then either get better or die on their own?

Leaked documentation from Britain shows they're taking it very seriously indeed.

"All UK hospitals have been told to prepare secure coronavirus zones to “avoid a surge” in emergency departments, a leaked NHS letter has shown.The letter, dated 31 January, tells hospitals to set up “coronavirus priority assessment pods”, which can be decontaminated after each use.
All chief executives and medical directors are instructed to have the pods up and running by Friday 7 February.
Prof Keith Willett, who is leading the NHS’s response to coronavirus, told NHS bosses in the letter: “Plans have been developed to avoid a surge in emergency departments due to coronavirus."
 
results and effect calculated with Statistics Artificial inteligence


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Yetos said:
results and effect calculated with Statistics Artificial inteligence


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And that's assuming they're publishing the true figures, which I doubt. What about all the people who are afraid to go to the hospital, or the ones they are sending back home without actually checking to see if they have the virus or it's a regular flu?

Btw, the doctor I mentioned above who had expressed his concern way back in Nov/Dec about a new virus, and who has since died of it, was in his mid-thirties and healthy, and he was actually arrested and forced to sign a "confession" that he had lied. The same thing happened to a bunch of other doctors. Pictures of them had been run on state tv to shame them for "rumor mongering". It's the same pattern that played out in Stalinist Russia.

The most ghastly reports for me about all of this are the ones saying that since they don't have enough hospital beds for people they're sending them back home. In effect, they're being abandoned, and they will also infect their families.

Videos leaked out of China also show that these new "hospitals", and the converted convention halls etc. don't have enough wash rooms and there's barely any staff.

This is a complete horror. These poor people.

Ed. Very interesting research published based on 138 cases in a Wuhan hospital:-26% required ICU-41% were believed to be human to human hospital related transmissions-29% of patients were medical workersSource:https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044
 
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I am sure there are more deaths than officially accounted. At the same time, there must be more infected people, too. It is all happening beyond statistics. So those official numbers that we see now may reflect only what happens with registered patients in hospitals who underwent testing for coronavirus infection. Testing kits and capacities are too few and too little, so the statistics are underestimating the scope of the outbreak.

However, if we start counting deaths among those hospitalised outside of China, the fatality rate would not be very hight as of today, and I don't think that those cases are manipulated, do you?

On the other hand we can count the latest survival/recovery rate of those who end up in Chinese hospitals - according to official Chinese statistics there were 1726 recoveries and 639 deaths as of 7 Feb 2020. So the recovery rate is about 60% as of today. Hopefully it will improve with time, as it takes time to fully recover.
As of now, the fatality among more serious cases is somewhere around 40%, mathematically if we presume that fatality rate of this coronavirus is 2% the recovery rate at the end of the outbreak should be 98%, rather than 60% as it is now, so it is still a very long way to go until the outbreak is stopped.

I feel so sorry for Dr Li Wenliang who wanted to inform about the spread of the virus, but was silenced... The whole story including his death, and how the authorities tried to cover it up, is so very much depressing. Especially having in mind, that he was 34 years of age, and did not fall into any risk groups, besides, as a doctor who got infected while carrying out his duties he should have been offered the priority care. And yet he could not have been saved. Left a pregnant wife with a small child.
 
Another worrying development...

Young, healthy patients getting sick

Super-spreaders confirmed, including fast hospital acquired infection

*26*% progression to severe respiratory and inflammatory symptoms

Unexpected relapse/increased severity in patients with seemingly mild infection

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/health/coronavirus-patients.html


The hospitals are becoming prime sources of the disease, and many of those affected are the hospital staff.
 
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