Genetic study The Picenes and the Genetic Landscape of Central Adriatic Italy in the Iron Age.

[Cresswell444]

thanks pax for the maps

maybe my family "blondness" is via my line prior to 1600 .....................my matches below

My son in law is T1a1a1...not sure of it's origin but it's traced back to Gloucestershire England in the 1500's.

 

[Pax Augusta]

Thanks Salento, as usual great work.

Made very quickly.

 

[Tautalus]

The study "The genomic portrait of the Picene culture provides new insights into the Italic Iron Age and the legacy of the Roman Empire in Central Italy" was published today.

Abstract
Background

The Italic Iron Age is characterized by the presence of various ethnic groups partially examined from a genomic perspective. To explore the evolution of Iron Age Italic populations and the genetic impact of Romanization, we focus on the Picenes, one of the most fascinating pre-Roman civilizations, who flourished on the Middle Adriatic side of Central Italy between the 9th and the 3rd century BCE, until the Roman colonization.

Results
More than 50 samples are reported, spanning more than 1000 years of history from the Iron Age to Late Antiquity. Despite cultural diversity, our analysis reveals no major differences between the Picenes and other coeval populations, suggesting a shared genetic history of the Central Italian Iron Age ethnic groups. Nevertheless, a slight genetic differentiation between populations along the Adriatic and Tyrrhenian coasts can be observed, possibly due to different population dynamics in the two sides of Italy and/or genetic contacts across the Adriatic Sea. Additionally, we identify several individuals with ancestries deviating from their general population. Lastly, in our Late Antiquity site, we observe a drastic change in the genetic landscape of the Middle Adriatic region, indicating a relevant influx from the Near East, possibly as a consequence of Romanization.

The genomic portrait of the Picene culture provides new insights into the Italic Iron Age and the legacy of the Roman Empire in Central Italy - Genome Biology

Background The Italic Iron Age is characterized by the presence of various ethnic groups partially examined from a genomic perspective. To explore the evolution of Iron Age Italic populations and the genetic impact of Romanization, we focus on the Picenes, one of the most fascinating pre-Roman...

link.springer.com

 

[torzio]

In the Middle and Final Bronze Age, the Picene area was affected by a series of small scattered settlements, both on the coast (Ancarano di Sirolo, Massignano, Ripatransone), whose relationships with the Balkan cultures have been highlighted, and in the hinterland (Santa Paolina di Filottrano, Montefrancolo di Pollenza, Moscosi di Cingoli), the latter in contact with the terramare populations, but progressively abandoned or in decline at the end of the Bronze Age, in favour of the coastal ones.

The settlement on the Cappuccini hill in Ancona dates back to this phase, where a necropolis was established on the site of the previous settlement. The importance of maritime traffic in this phase, especially for the supply of Baltic amber that arrived in Piceno

 

[torzio]

the piceni and liburnian trading periods lasted more than 800 years
what was the difference between north and south picene except for some linguistic writings

seems like a trade triangle of veneti-liburni-north picene as one group and a south picene, more assosiated with more non-coastal connections

 

[Pax Augusta]

The study "The genomic portrait of the Picene culture provides new insights into the Italic Iron Age and the legacy of the Roman Empire in Central Italy" was published today.

Abstract
Background

The Italic Iron Age is characterized by the presence of various ethnic groups partially examined from a genomic perspective. To explore the evolution of Iron Age Italic populations and the genetic impact of Romanization, we focus on the Picenes, one of the most fascinating pre-Roman civilizations, who flourished on the Middle Adriatic side of Central Italy between the 9th and the 3rd century BCE, until the Roman colonization.

Results
More than 50 samples are reported, spanning more than 1000 years of history from the Iron Age to Late Antiquity. Despite cultural diversity, our analysis reveals no major differences between the Picenes and other coeval populations, suggesting a shared genetic history of the Central Italian Iron Age ethnic groups. Nevertheless, a slight genetic differentiation between populations along the Adriatic and Tyrrhenian coasts can be observed, possibly due to different population dynamics in the two sides of Italy and/or genetic contacts across the Adriatic Sea. Additionally, we identify several individuals with ancestries deviating from their general population. Lastly, in our Late Antiquity site, we observe a drastic change in the genetic landscape of the Middle Adriatic region, indicating a relevant influx from the Near East, possibly as a consequence of Romanization.

In extreme summary, discounting all possible inaccuracies in the estimates of uniparental markers, ancestral components and otherwise (Admixture analysis and HIrisPlex are never entirely accurate) Etruscans and Latins seem to be in greater continuity with the earliest migrations that brought Steppe to Italy, between 2500 and 2000 BCE (Middle Bronze Age), while the Picenes received stronger later influences from the Balkans that shaped their genetic profile (Final Bronze Age), with lower percentages of WHG and higher percentages of Steppe-related ancestry, and it is archaeologically a known fact these Balkan migrations in the Picenes happened; even for the Etruscans are hypothesized, particularly from northern Balkans by land in the Final Bronze Age, but evidently these migrations had much less impact in their case. The Etruscans lived on the western side of Italy, further away from the Balkans, so not a surprise at all.

It remains to be seen whether this Balkan component is something that concerns only the Picenes (archaeologists when they talk about this Balkan component in the Picenes do not put it in realation with their Italic origin) or also concerns other Osco-Umbrian-speaking populations in the same way, and the Veneti, who instead spoke an IE language more related to the Latin-Faliscan group, and were closer to the borders by land with the Northern Balkans.

We would need analyses of many other Iron Age populations of Preroman Italy to draw more definitive conclusions, but I fear that for some ethnic groups there are insufficient samples or none at all.

I do not recall the study mentioning this but these migrations from the Balkans to the Adriatic coast could also explain the language of the Novilara Stele, which is an unclassified language of non-Indo-European origin (but not considered related to either Etruscan or Rhaetic) and different from the Indo-european Picene language.

 

[LaCamadeProcusto]

The majority of the files are small, ... posting 37 samples out of 102.

Dod K12b - 1240K :

IA_Etruscan:EV7A_cov-21.13%,0,0.08,4.28,0,48.37,24.43,3.05,0,7.75,1.83,9.02,1.18
IA_Etruscan:EV16D1_cov-9.96%,0,0,4.73,0,51.2,17.62,2.45,0,4.85,0,16.78,2.36
LA_Pesaro:PF11_cov-16.45%,6.15,0,2.19,0,33.73,14.4,4.12,0,10.1,0,27.2,2.12
LA_Pesaro:PF19_cov-14.76%,7.27,0.23,0,2.72,35.96,16.79,1.1,3.12,5.16,0,26.22,1.42
LA_Pesaro:PF24_cov-28.15%,9.34,0,2.99,0,32.18,17.41,1.51,0.31,12.5,1.13,22.25,0.39
LA_Pesaro:PF28_cov-24.22%,3.1,0,3.56,0.67,23.8,4.67,1.24,0,16.9,0,44.87,1.19
LA_Pesaro:PF36_cov-10.29%,16.12,0,2.7,0,31,14.84,0,2.18,8.71,0,23.64,0.81
IA_Picene:PN101_cov-14.80%,1.13,1.03,1.8,0.47,39.97,27.76,0,2.55,2.59,0,20.97,1.73
IA_Picene:PN105_cov-21.63%,4.17,0,0.23,0,43.69,21.49,0.92,2.8,1.97,0,24.73,0
IA_Picene:PN125_cov-21.77%,2.16,0,0.6,0,39.76,30.74,0,0,3.88,1.64,18.97,2.25
IA_Picene:PN135_cov-18.24%,2.97,0,2.01,1.18,34.72,31.72,0,0.2,4.28,0,21.85,1.08
IA_Picene:PN138_cov-13.34%,2.5,0.53,0.09,0.05,39.46,23.65,0.24,0.11,7.49,0.69,23.45,1.74
IA_Picene:PN141_cov-20.38%,0,0.56,4.27,0,39.72,28.07,0,0,3.17,1.56,21.21,1.44
IA_Picene:PN146_cov-20.57%,2.8,0,0.8,0,46.23,22.41,0,0,4.29,0,21.96,1.51
IA_Picene:PN157_cov-11.15%,5.42,2.82,0.28,0,42.48,29.84,0,0,0.21,0,16.35,2.59
IA_Picene:PN158_cov-23.05%,7.42,5.15,0.51,0,35.94,28.62,0,0.41,2.2,0.47,16.03,3.26
IA_Picene:PN162_cov-22.66%,2.32,0,1.25,0,41.33,27.4,0.96,0.65,5.04,0,19.97,1.09
IA_Picene:PN172_cov-26.29%,10.53,0,0.51,0,36.62,31.13,0,0.33,4.87,0,12.76,3.25
IA_Picene:PN177_cov-14.96%,7.8,2.49,0.76,0,32.29,25.79,0,0,13.16,0,17.35,0.36
IA_Picene:PN179_cov-19.21%,4.08,0.78,0,1.59,38.54,22.7,0,0,9.56,0,21.06,1.69
IA_Picene:PN180_cov-18.87%,5.39,0,1.67,0.93,41.8,32.06,0.52,0.54,0,0,15.8,1.3
IA_Picene:PN20_cov-21.26%,3.98,0,1.1,0.51,49.01,16.95,0,0,2.9,0,21.41,4.13
IA_Picene:PN24_cov-12.03%,6.4,0.36,0,0,41.72,27.59,0,0,2.21,0.36,19.5,1.85
IA_Picene:PN35_cov-13.77%,4.19,0,3.69,0,33.56,32.08,0,1.97,6.8,1.83,15.46,0.41
IA_Picene:PN41_cov-15.99%,5.13,1.53,2.01,0.37,35.89,23.76,0,0,0,0,27.72,3.58
IA_Picene:PN42_cov-25.93%,5.15,0,3.45,0,34.26,37.13,0,0,4.56,1.5,13.95,0
IA_Picene:PN44_cov-14.39%,8.94,1.03,0.13,0.29,37.04,25.02,0,0,4.75,1.68,18.56,2.57
IA_Picene:PN50_cov-17.18%,5.18,0,3.46,0.67,44.3,24.18,1.37,2.11,0.7,0,17.25,0.79
IA_Picene:PN51_cov-20.78%,1.71,0.64,2.36,3.13,34.27,24.76,0,0,6.29,0,25.52,1.33
IA_Picene:PN78_cov-11.07%,6.83,0.54,2.02,0,40.2,29.73,0.66,1.3,0.37,0.7,16.82,0.82
IA_Picene:PN79_cov-25.01%,4.64,0,1.8,0,32.3,33.59,0,0,2.79,0.4,22.1,2.38
IA_Picene:PN85_cov-11.75%,4.23,0.39,0.29,0,38.71,29.76,0,3.1,1.59,0.99,20.69,0.25
IA_Picene:PN87_cov-11.61%,2.62,0.48,0,0.69,28.94,28.99,2.3,0,7.25,0,25.53,3.21
IA_Picene:PN90_cov-10.55%,6.32,0,0.06,0.95,41.07,24,0.71,0.32,3.2,0,21.09,2.27
IA_Picene:PN91_cov-12.67%,0,0.21,1.86,0.03,35.37,29.5,5.06,0,4.04,0,22.39,1.55
IA_Picene:PNU76_cov-11.38%,0,0,9,1.11,36.09,29.66,0,1.81,3.47,0,18.85,0
IA_Picene:PSD2_cov-9.66%,0,0,0.38,1.44,29.15,36.04,0,0,9.83,0,21.81,1.35

Target: MokordoMH
Distance: 2.8687% / 2.86873031
57.9 IA_Etruscan
42.1 IA_Picene
0.0 LA_Pesaro

 

[Hallstatt]

The EBA and Bell Beaker samples of Northern Italy seem to meet roughly where IA Latins/Etruscans cluster in the modern Spaniard area of the PCA. This represents the earliest waves of steppe influence and perhaps is the actual ethnogenesis of the people who spread the proto apennine material culture that later went on to become the latins, samnites, umbrians, oenotrians and etruscans. They are more WHG drifted than populations like the IA Picenes, BA/IA illyrians and modern Northern Italians.

The modern spaniard-like and EEF-like samples from EBA Marche are of particular importance because they prove a significant displacement or admixture event in local ancestry. We have IA samples from the Picenes to compare and they instead cluster in the modern northern Italian zone of the PCA. This displacement necessarily had to occur between the middle and final bronze age, which of course encompasses the terramare migrations to po valley and the alps. I'd be highly surprised if we don't see the same displacement phenomenon in northern Italy as well, given the genetic profiles we've seen from the BA proto-illyrians and vatya/nagyrev cultures. This is all very good data with significant sample size, but the limitation is the age of these samples. Most of the answers to the big questions on Italian ethnography are going to be found in later finds than what was recovered for this study.

View attachment 16595
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But why would NW Italy (Piemonte & Liguria) be more "balkan shifted" if the area was never part of Terramare? Wouldnt they be more like the Latins/Etruscans or between them and south france?

 

[Vitruvius]

But why would NW Italy (Piemonte & Liguria) be more "balkan shifted" if the area was never part of Terramare? Wouldnt they be more like the Latins/Etruscans or between them and south france?

Good question. Quite simply, since we have an idea of what EBA northern Italian ancestry looks like (and it indeed looks more western than moderns) there was some shift in ancestry that favored the modern northern Italian like averages over that of the iron age latin/etruscan averages in these areas, despite the fact that materially they are areas where Polada material culture showed greater resilience. The main question is what context/time period this change occurred in. Material culture gets much more homogenized during the protovillanovan period and that may be a chronology of intrigue for assessing any genetic changes that occurred in northwest Italy, but is also not guaranteed as far as an era for an eastern shift of ancestry.

 

[Hallstatt]

Good question. Quite simply, since we have an idea of what EBA northern Italian ancestry looks like (and it indeed looks more western than moderns) there was some shift in ancestry that favored the modern northern Italian like averages over that of the iron age latin/etruscan averages in these areas, despite the fact that materially they are areas where Polada material culture showed greater resilience. The main question is what context/time period this change occurred in. Material culture gets much more homogenized during the protovillanovan period and that may be a chronology of intrigue for assessing any genetic changes that occurred in northwest Italy, but is also not guaranteed as far as an era for an eastern shift of ancestry.

I'm not sure if it had happened by late IA. These are 3 samples from SW Germany Hallstatt Celts study that had southern ancestry and using some tool they were able to guestimate their origins to different regions in N Italy

Proxy for IA Ligurians?
Magdalenenberg_Hallstat.AG:MBG016.AG__BC_573__Cov_35.63%,0.130897,0.151314,0.039598,0.003553,0.050471,-0.005578,-0.0094,-0.002769,0.018612,0.045559,-0.001299,0.01169,-0.019623,-0.007432,0.005022,-0.003845,-0.00665,-0.003421,0.014581,-0.005378,-0.001497,-0.001731,-0.005916,-0.007953,0.010777

Proxy for IA Marche?
Magdalenenberg_Hallstat.AG:MBG004.AG__BC_573__Cov_33.87%,0.137726,0.148267,0.035826,-0.002907,0.048317,-0.007809,0.003055,-0.003,0.016566,0.036265,-0.002436,0.013488,-0.026759,-0.00867,-0.00285,0.001591,0.005737,0.006714,0.001006,-0.000375,0.006489,-0.01051,0.002465,-0.003133,-0.000838

Proxy for IA Veneto/Slovenia?
Hochdorf_Hallstat.AG:HOC004_d.AG__BC_515__Cov_22.36%,0.121791,0.147252,0.038089,0.008398,0.043393,0.007251,0.004465,0.009,0.018612,0.037905,-0.004872,0.005695,-0.020069,0.001927,0.005157,-0.010872,-0.004824,0.007095,0.006034,-0.019509,0.000374,0.000124,-0.000246,-0.004699,-0.002395

Additionally I think some other Hallstatt/La Tene samples plot in the general region of what I consider N Italy for that time. Apart from the Verona samples they might not represent locals, but rather locals from regions outside Italy which might harbour IA N-NW Italian ancestry, unless they just have similar ancestry components and that's why they overlap on G25 pca.

Parançot_IA:CGG023704__BC_530__Cov_94.86%,0.124067,0.155376,0.044877,-0.003876,0.052625,-0.009482,0.003995,0.003692,0.024952,0.040639,-0.000487,0.007943,-0.018583,-0.011285,-0.002986,-0.001989,0.007171,0.000507,0.008799,0.005127,0.009234,0.006183,-0.007641,-0.005904,-0.005987
BasRhin_Nordhouse_IA1.SG:NOR4.SG__BC_550__Cov_10.91%,0.12862,0.153345,0.058454,0,0.04647,-0.006414,-0.00376,0.013615,0.02168,0.031162,-0.013641,0.007493,-0.020515,-0.01445,-0.019137,0.006232,0.005607,-0.011402,0.011564,0.004627,0.005865,0.00507,-0.014666,0.008073,-0.001796
KapiteljskaNjiva_EIA.AG:I5691.AG__BC_655__Cov_67.06%,0.130897,0.147252,0.044877,0.008398,0.042777,-0.002789,-0.001175,-0.001385,0.019225,0.030433,0.003085,0.008542,-0.019623,-0.011973,0.003122,-0.003182,-0.000522,0.003674,-0.005531,0.0005,-0.00262,0.005193,-0.001972,0.002892,-0.000958
Picene_SiroloNumana_IA:PNU76__BC_600__Cov_11.71%,0.124067,0.15436,0.050157,-0.013889,0.046778,0.000837,-0.00094,-0.004154,0.032315,0.030251,0.003248,0.003297,-0.009663,-0.010046,0.004343,-0.008088,-0.013299,0.012035,-0.01169,-0.01038,-0.007736,-0.003462,0.002958,-0.000964,0
Picene_Novilara_IA:PN24__BC_675__Cov_22.18%,0.119514,0.161469,0.042615,0.002261,0.0437,-0.001394,-0.00517,0,0.002863,0.03426,0.006496,0.008842,-0.017839,-0.010597,0.003664,0.002254,0.009127,0.005068,0.004399,-0.003377,-0.000374,0.005564,-0.009244,0.002289,-0.010897
Verona_LIA:3227__BC_203__Cov_91.90%,0.134311,0.151314,0.043746,-0.002261,0.049855,-0.008367,0,0.001615,0.030474,0.036812,-0.003085,0.005695,-0.019029,0.002064,0.004479,0.00358,-0.000652,0.007855,0.013324,-0.000375,0.001747,0.00371,-0.006779,-0.006266,0.001916
Verona_LIA:3779__BC_200__Cov_23.92%,0.122929,0.149283,0.053551,0.00323,0.054164,-0.015618,0.00329,0.012461,0.02986,0.037723,-0.00065,0.014237,-0.025718,-0.017203,0.003122,0.00716,0.020861,0.005068,0.00264,-0.012256,-0.002371,0.013231,0.010599,-0.016629,-0.00012
Verona_LIA:3196__BC_200__Cov_92.57%,0.127482,0.151314,0.051666,-0.010013,0.058472,0,-0.00282,0.008077,0.016771,0.037541,-0.001624,0.004046,-0.020515,-0.012799,0.005565,0.00411,0.004042,-0.00038,0.003897,-0.006128,0.002121,0.007048,-0.007395,0.005061,0.00479
Verona_LIA:3225__BC_200__Cov_81.84%,0.114961,0.146236,0.047517,0.010659,0.044316,-0.000279,-0.00799,-0.007615,0.02168,0.026971,-0.000974,0.012139,-0.022002,-0.007707,0.008822,-0.011005,-0.007953,0.002914,0.006913,-0.003877,0.002496,0.004822,-0.007888,0.003494,-0.002994
Verona_LIA:3206__BC_200__Cov_81.03%,0.118376,0.147252,0.049403,0.012274,0.04924,0.000837,-0.00282,0.001846,0.019225,0.033714,-0.00065,0.001499,-0.02334,-0.009771,0.010043,-0.001724,-0.000391,0.003294,0.00817,-0.004252,-0.00574,-0.002968,0.001479,-0.003012,-0.003113
DolgeNjive_EIA.AG:I22934.AG__BC_675__Cov_11.83%,0.130897,0.155376,0.035449,0.01615,0.029852,-0.010319,0.011516,-0.002308,0.007363,0.029887,-0.001949,0.014387,-0.02111,-0.013625,0.00095,0.018297,0.004433,0.003674,-0.010433,-0.006128,0.006738,0.009892,0.001849,0.004699,-0.00455
Verona_LIA:3217__BC_200__Cov_90.30%,0.119514,0.151314,0.046763,0.001615,0.054472,-0.000558,-0.00329,0.004384,0.017385,0.036629,-0.004384,0.005245,-0.013825,-0.009771,-0.006515,-0.007955,-0.001173,0.0019,0.002011,-0.006628,-0.003369,0.003339,0.001232,-0.007591,-0.002515
TarquiniaMonterozzi_IA.SG:R10361.SG__BC_378__Cov_84.46%,0.12862,0.147252,0.045632,-0.000646,0.054472,-0.000837,0.004465,0.003692,0.018203,0.037905,-0.004872,0.008542,-0.020812,-0.013625,-0.002036,0.000796,0.001956,0.003421,0.00729,-0.01038,-0.002371,-0.003833,-0.006779,-0.001325,-0.007544
Etruria_Casenovole.AG:CSN008.AG__BC_400__Cov_19.90%,0.135449,0.150298,0.049403,0.006783,0.048932,0.004183,-0.001645,0.000923,0.016566,0.033167,-0.011205,0.003597,-0.020515,-0.017203,-0.001357,-0.007027,-0.008996,0.006081,0.006536,-0.002126,0.006863,0.004204,0.006286,-0.010001,-0.002275

 

[Pax Augusta]

I'm not sure if it had happened by late IA. These are 3 samples from SW Germany Hallstatt Celts study that had southern ancestry and using some tool they were able to guestimate their origins to different regions in N Italy

Proxy for IA Ligurians?
Magdalenenberg_Hallstat.AG:MBG016.AG__BC_573__Cov_35.63%,0.130897,0.151314,0.039598,0.003553,0.050471,-0.005578,-0.0094,-0.002769,0.018612,0.045559,-0.001299,0.01169,-0.019623,-0.007432,0.005022,-0.003845,-0.00665,-0.003421,0.014581,-0.005378,-0.001497,-0.001731,-0.005916,-0.007953,0.010777

Proxy for IA Marche?
Magdalenenberg_Hallstat.AG:MBG004.AG__BC_573__Cov_33.87%,0.137726,0.148267,0.035826,-0.002907,0.048317,-0.007809,0.003055,-0.003,0.016566,0.036265,-0.002436,0.013488,-0.026759,-0.00867,-0.00285,0.001591,0.005737,0.006714,0.001006,-0.000375,0.006489,-0.01051,0.002465,-0.003133,-0.000838

Proxy for IA Veneto/Slovenia?
Hochdorf_Hallstat.AG:HOC004_d.AG__BC_515__Cov_22.36%,0.121791,0.147252,0.038089,0.008398,0.043393,0.007251,0.004465,0.009,0.018612,0.037905,-0.004872,0.005695,-0.020069,0.001927,0.005157,-0.010872,-0.004824,0.007095,0.006034,-0.019509,0.000374,0.000124,-0.000246,-0.004699,-0.002395

Additionally I think some other Hallstatt/La Tene samples plot in the general region of what I consider N Italy for that time. Apart from the Verona samples they might not represent locals, but rather locals from regions outside Italy which might harbour IA N-NW Italian ancestry, unless they just have similar ancestry components and that's why they overlap on G25 pca.

Parançot_IA:CGG023704__BC_530__Cov_94.86%,0.124067,0.155376,0.044877,-0.003876,0.052625,-0.009482,0.003995,0.003692,0.024952,0.040639,-0.000487,0.007943,-0.018583,-0.011285,-0.002986,-0.001989,0.007171,0.000507,0.008799,0.005127,0.009234,0.006183,-0.007641,-0.005904,-0.005987
BasRhin_Nordhouse_IA1.SG:NOR4.SG__BC_550__Cov_10.91%,0.12862,0.153345,0.058454,0,0.04647,-0.006414,-0.00376,0.013615,0.02168,0.031162,-0.013641,0.007493,-0.020515,-0.01445,-0.019137,0.006232,0.005607,-0.011402,0.011564,0.004627,0.005865,0.00507,-0.014666,0.008073,-0.001796
KapiteljskaNjiva_EIA.AG:I5691.AG__BC_655__Cov_67.06%,0.130897,0.147252,0.044877,0.008398,0.042777,-0.002789,-0.001175,-0.001385,0.019225,0.030433,0.003085,0.008542,-0.019623,-0.011973,0.003122,-0.003182,-0.000522,0.003674,-0.005531,0.0005,-0.00262,0.005193,-0.001972,0.002892,-0.000958
Picene_SiroloNumana_IA:PNU76__BC_600__Cov_11.71%,0.124067,0.15436,0.050157,-0.013889,0.046778,0.000837,-0.00094,-0.004154,0.032315,0.030251,0.003248,0.003297,-0.009663,-0.010046,0.004343,-0.008088,-0.013299,0.012035,-0.01169,-0.01038,-0.007736,-0.003462,0.002958,-0.000964,0
Picene_Novilara_IA:PN24__BC_675__Cov_22.18%,0.119514,0.161469,0.042615,0.002261,0.0437,-0.001394,-0.00517,0,0.002863,0.03426,0.006496,0.008842,-0.017839,-0.010597,0.003664,0.002254,0.009127,0.005068,0.004399,-0.003377,-0.000374,0.005564,-0.009244,0.002289,-0.010897
Verona_LIA:3227__BC_203__Cov_91.90%,0.134311,0.151314,0.043746,-0.002261,0.049855,-0.008367,0,0.001615,0.030474,0.036812,-0.003085,0.005695,-0.019029,0.002064,0.004479,0.00358,-0.000652,0.007855,0.013324,-0.000375,0.001747,0.00371,-0.006779,-0.006266,0.001916
Verona_LIA:3779__BC_200__Cov_23.92%,0.122929,0.149283,0.053551,0.00323,0.054164,-0.015618,0.00329,0.012461,0.02986,0.037723,-0.00065,0.014237,-0.025718,-0.017203,0.003122,0.00716,0.020861,0.005068,0.00264,-0.012256,-0.002371,0.013231,0.010599,-0.016629,-0.00012
Verona_LIA:3196__BC_200__Cov_92.57%,0.127482,0.151314,0.051666,-0.010013,0.058472,0,-0.00282,0.008077,0.016771,0.037541,-0.001624,0.004046,-0.020515,-0.012799,0.005565,0.00411,0.004042,-0.00038,0.003897,-0.006128,0.002121,0.007048,-0.007395,0.005061,0.00479
Verona_LIA:3225__BC_200__Cov_81.84%,0.114961,0.146236,0.047517,0.010659,0.044316,-0.000279,-0.00799,-0.007615,0.02168,0.026971,-0.000974,0.012139,-0.022002,-0.007707,0.008822,-0.011005,-0.007953,0.002914,0.006913,-0.003877,0.002496,0.004822,-0.007888,0.003494,-0.002994
Verona_LIA:3206__BC_200__Cov_81.03%,0.118376,0.147252,0.049403,0.012274,0.04924,0.000837,-0.00282,0.001846,0.019225,0.033714,-0.00065,0.001499,-0.02334,-0.009771,0.010043,-0.001724,-0.000391,0.003294,0.00817,-0.004252,-0.00574,-0.002968,0.001479,-0.003012,-0.003113
DolgeNjive_EIA.AG:I22934.AG__BC_675__Cov_11.83%,0.130897,0.155376,0.035449,0.01615,0.029852,-0.010319,0.011516,-0.002308,0.007363,0.029887,-0.001949,0.014387,-0.02111,-0.013625,0.00095,0.018297,0.004433,0.003674,-0.010433,-0.006128,0.006738,0.009892,0.001849,0.004699,-0.00455
Verona_LIA:3217__BC_200__Cov_90.30%,0.119514,0.151314,0.046763,0.001615,0.054472,-0.000558,-0.00329,0.004384,0.017385,0.036629,-0.004384,0.005245,-0.013825,-0.009771,-0.006515,-0.007955,-0.001173,0.0019,0.002011,-0.006628,-0.003369,0.003339,0.001232,-0.007591,-0.002515
TarquiniaMonterozzi_IA.SG:R10361.SG__BC_378__Cov_84.46%,0.12862,0.147252,0.045632,-0.000646,0.054472,-0.000837,0.004465,0.003692,0.018203,0.037905,-0.004872,0.008542,-0.020812,-0.013625,-0.002036,0.000796,0.001956,0.003421,0.00729,-0.01038,-0.002371,-0.003833,-0.006779,-0.001325,-0.007544
Etruria_Casenovole.AG:CSN008.AG__BC_400__Cov_19.90%,0.135449,0.150298,0.049403,0.006783,0.048932,0.004183,-0.001645,0.000923,0.016566,0.033167,-0.011205,0.003597,-0.020515,-0.017203,-0.001357,-0.007027,-0.008996,0.006081,0.006536,-0.002126,0.006863,0.004204,0.006286,-0.010001,-0.002275

The problem is that there is a lack of ancient bone remains, both for the Bronze Age and Iron Age, for many parts of northern Italy (and other parts of the country as well). First of all, it is an archaeological problem, not an archaeogenetic problem. So the risk is that there is too much data on some ethnic groups in pre-Roman Italy but not on others, which makes it difficult to understand how things changed over time. Even for the Bronze Age, I don't think there are any published data for northwestern Italy, but the data we have so far are only from northeastern Italy.

If I put the samples you suggest we use as a proxy for Italy into a PCA, they end up close to the Iron Age samples we already have from central Italy. Maybe some were really individuals that came from Italy, although there's no certainty, I think, but others might just represent some genetic variability that was in central Europe in the Iron Age, especially in the transition areas between southern and central Europe.

 

[Pygmalion]

The Olmo di Nogara samples, which date to the 15th-14th century BC, have very little Steppe DNA, less than 10%, despite being sword-bearing elite individuals. So the spread of Steppe ancestry across Italy seems to have very uneven, especially compared to some regions like the British Islands where abruptly all samples go from being 100% EEF - like to 100% Central European Bell Beaker - like. For example, some Bell Beaker samples in Sicily have a really high amount of Steppe DNA, but later during the 2nd and 1st millennium BC most Sicilians samples have less than 15% Steppe DNA; there are some Parma Bell Beaker samples that are 100% CE Bell Beaker - like, and others that are still EEF - like, and several other examples could be mentioned.

 

[Pax Augusta]

The Olmo di Nogara samples, which date to the 15th-14th century BC, have very little Steppe DNA, less than 10%, despite being sword-bearing elite individuals. So the spread of Steppe ancestry across Italy seems to have very uneven, especially compared to some regions like the British Islands where abruptly all samples go from being 100% EEF - like to 100% Central European Bell Beaker - like. For example, some Bell Beaker samples in Sicily have a really high amount of Steppe DNA, but later during the 2nd and 1st millennium BC most Sicilians samples have less than 15% Steppe DNA; there are some Parma Bell Beaker samples that are 100% CE Bell Beaker - like, and others that are still EEF - like. And several other examples could be mentioned.

Yes, it was a long process in Italy and uneven (which also might explain why several non-Indo-European, probably Paleo-European, languages are still found in Italy in the Iron Age, as is also the case in Spain and neighboring southern French territories).

I do not know if there have been more recent statements by geneticists but in this video published in 2024 (conference held in October 2023 in Trento), that you likely already know, even backdates the possible arrival of the Steppe component to 2500 BC in northern Italy (Parma) and 2400 BC in southern Italy (Acerra). They have analyzed human remains from 2 Parma necropolises from the Bell Beaker era. One of the 2 was completely unpublished. Of the other (Via Guidorossi) a few samples had ended up in a Bell Becker study a few years ago (Olalde et al 2018), samples from Parma dominated by R1b-L2.

 

[Hallstatt]

The problem is that there is a lack of ancient bone remains, both for the Bronze Age and Iron Age, for many parts of northern Italy (and other parts of the country as well). First of all, it is an archaeological problem, not an archaeogenetic problem. So the risk is that there is too much data on some ethnic groups in pre-Roman Italy but not on others, which makes it difficult to understand how things changed over time. Even for the Bronze Age, I don't think there are any published data for northwestern Italy, but the data we have so far are only from northeastern Italy.

If I put the samples you suggest we use as a proxy for Italy into a PCA, they end up close to the Iron Age samples we already have from central Italy. Maybe some were really individuals that came from Italy, although there's no certainty, I think, but others might just represent some genetic variability that was in central Europe in the Iron Age, especially in the transition areas between southern and central Europe.

That's my point. They (samples by proxy except for IA Verona) don't seem to have as much balkan ancestry as the Picenes. Having said that I'm guessing north east Italy samples could have more balkan like ancestry and could be pulled towards Slovenia etc, like these samples

Proxy for IA Marche?
Magdalenenberg_Hallstat.AG:MBG004.AG__BC_573__Cov_33.87%,0.137726,0.148267,0.035826,-0.002907,0.048317,-0.007809,0.003055,-0.003,0.016566,0.036265,-0.002436,0.013488,-0.026759,-0.00867,-0.00285,0.001591,0.005737,0.006714,0.001006,-0.000375,0.006489,-0.01051,0.002465,-0.003133,-0.000838

Proxy for IA Veneto/Slovenia?
Hochdorf_Hallstat.AG:HOC004_d.AG__BC_515__Cov_22.36%,0.121791,0.147252,0.038089,0.008398,0.043393,0.007251,0.004465,0.009,0.018612,0.037905,-0.004872,0.005695,-0.020069,0.001927,0.005157,-0.010872,-0.004824,0.007095,0.006034,-0.019509,0.000374,0.000124,-0.000246,-0.004699,-0.002395

North Italy might cover the entire italic spectrum from west to east, but I'd make a guess that NW Italy will be closer, if not overlap with the tirreneans//west italics. After all, there was a long cultural divide between NW and NE Italy in the MBA-LBA, and from what I understand it continued into the IA.

I said it was the SW Germany Hallstatt paper, not myself, that proposed regional north Italian origins for the ancestors of some samples, iirc not that they were migrants themselves but that they had ancestors that had migrated from the south to the north. If this model is accepted, it can be used for other samples as well. Taken with a grain of salt, off course other samples that plot in the area might just have similar ancestry components and be unrelated, but if we can get locals (like some IA Verona) who plot in the same region then that could confirm that these Proxy samples do either have north Italian ancestry from various regions, or instead they are a 1/2 way mix between more southern Etruscans proper and north/east alpine peoples

The most intriguing sample for me is this one

Proxy for IA Ligurians?
Magdalenenberg_Hallstat.AG:MBG016.AG__BC_573__Cov_35.63%,0.130897,0.151314,0.039598,0.003553,0.050471,-0.005578,-0.0094,-0.002769,0.018612,0.045559,-0.001299,0.01169,-0.019623,-0.007432,0.005022,-0.003845,-0.00665,-0.003421,0.014581,-0.005378,-0.001497,-0.001731,-0.005916,-0.007953,0.010777

Not only was the ancestry of the sample guesstimated as coming from Liguria, but it also plots away from most Picenes, plotting between Tirreneans and south France which would make sense geographically. However it could just as well signify ancestry from Etruscan settlements like Genoa and instead be an etruscan-celt mixed person instead of a local Ligurian profile. Time will tell.

Even for the Bronze Age, I don't think there are any published data for northwestern Italy, but the data we have so far are only from northeastern Italy.

Even so, out of 10 samples for BA central and north Italy, only 2 plot with or close IA Picenes, and only those Picenes that plot with Slovenia/NW Croatia as opposed to more southern Illyria

Veneto_Broion_EBA.SG:BRC030.SG__BC_1822__Cov_9.69%,0.125205,0.145221,0.039221,0.011951,0.044316,-0.007251,-0.00611,-0.002538,0.020861,0.033896,-0.000162,0.013938,-0.015461,-0.009634,-0.00475,0.001326,0.001434,-0.012542,0.006536,-0.005878,-0.003369,0.013478,-0.014666,0.011568,0.000239

ReginaMargherita_BA:GCP002A1__BC_1556__Cov_15.74%,0.121791,0.133034,0.036204,0.001938,0.052933,0.003626,0.004935,0.007154,0.025156,0.031527,0.003085,0.015736,-0.00892,-0.011698,0.001221,0.008486,0.006128,0.00114,0.000377,-0.007754,-0.001747,0.004575,-0.008381,-0.003253,-0.002275

The rest are more western

ReginaMargherita_BA.SG:GCP003.SG__BC_1547__Cov_12.88%,0.136588,0.150298,0.042992,-0.014212,0.042469,-0.011992,0.007755,-0.011076,0.026793,0.031162,-0.008607,0.007793,-0.00996,-0.021194,0.024022,0.01485,0.004172,-0.006841,0.002263,-0.002126,-0.008235,0.00136,-0.011709,-0.025064,0.010897

Veneto_Broion_EBA.SG:BRC010.SG__BC_1854__Cov_31.88%,0.127482,0.166547,0.035826,-0.022287,0.062165,-0.01255,0.000705,0,0.02577,0.054489,-0.006171,0.018883,-0.012339,-0.003991,-0.008958,-0.019623,-0.010822,0.00114,0.012821,-0.007629,-0.008111,0.002102,0.001602,-0.001566,-0.013292

Veneto_Broion_BA:BRC002__BC_1689__Cov_17.39%,0.118376,0.155376,0.035072,-0.004199,0.050163,-0.00251,-0.00752,-0.008769,0.02127,0.040274,0.003085,0.008393,-0.012339,-0.018717,-0.006922,0.0118,0.010822,-0.008868,-0.002891,0.000625,-0.001747,0.002349,0,-0.012773,-0.002874

Veneto_Broion_BA.SG:BRC007.SG__BC_1541__Cov_18.43%,0.118376,0.146236,0.038089,-0.024225,0.045547,-0.01004,-0.00235,-0.009,0.027406,0.059956,0.003735,0.004046,-0.025718,-0.021056,-0.0095,0.004641,0.028033,0.004687,-0.004022,-0.001501,0.003369,-0.004699,-0.001479,0.001325,-0.001676

PianSultano_BA.SG:R11102.SG__BC_1837__Cov_52.40%,0.125205,0.155376,0.062225,0.010659,0.060319,0.001673,-0.006345,0.007154,0.028429,0.040821,-0.000812,0.01139,-0.0278,-0.010184,0.005022,-0.000796,-0.004042,0.006208,0.008422,0.004252,0.006738,0.008532,-0.007025,-0.003615,0.004191

PianSultano_BA.SG:R11104.SG__BC_1769__Cov_71.26%,0.125205,0.149283,0.042238,-0.00646,0.052933,-0.011713,-0.00188,-0.007384,0.024338,0.043737,0.003735,0.012739,-0.016204,-0.007294,-0.000543,-0.015646,-0.013821,0.000253,0.000628,-0.008629,0.007861,0.001484,-0.012941,-0.016508,-0.001078

PianSultano_BA.SG:R11107.SG__BC_1769__Cov_50.75%,0.129758,0.158423,0.048271,-0.013243,0.053241,-0.003626,-0.00282,0.002308,0.023929,0.051755,0.001137,0.016335,-0.022894,-0.007569,-0.005429,-0.008618,-0.013821,0.002534,-0.001885,-0.004127,0.005865,0.000989,-0.001232,-0.0194,0.005508

PianSultano_BA.SG:R11105.SG__BC_1660__Cov_71.34%,0.135449,0.157407,0.042238,-0.015181,0.060934,-0.010877,-0.00564,0.002538,0.024952,0.041368,0.006333,0.005395,-0.023637,-0.010046,-0.000271,0.001989,0.005998,0.00228,0.005908,-0.002001,0.003369,0,-0.006902,-0.002771,-0.005987

 

[MOESAN]

The Olmo di Nogara samples, which date to the 15th-14th century BC, have very little Steppe DNA, less than 10%, despite being sword-bearing elite individuals. So the spread of Steppe ancestry across Italy seems to have very uneven, especially compared to some regions like the British Islands where abruptly all samples go from being 100% EEF - like to 100% Central European Bell Beaker - like. For example, some Bell Beaker samples in Sicily have a really high amount of Steppe DNA, but later during the 2nd and 1st millennium BC most Sicilians samples have less than 15% Steppe DNA; there are some Parma Bell Beaker samples that are 100% CE Bell Beaker - like, and others that are still EEF - like, and several other examples could be mentioned.

Agree. When a dominant people gains power over other people, they pass a majority of their cultural package but don't overwhelm genetically the acculturated pop, so the first known bearers of the new culture are rather "pure" when the subsequent generations are very less "pure" or even almost completely returned to the first genetic composition. History sees a lot of this "regenrations" of ancient pop's considered as faded out.
That said, first BB's in Spain were rather less homogenous than their "descendants" in N-W Europe...