God man, you and your long responses. :bigsmile:
I think that NW Anatolia to South-East Europe would be cool, but quite surprising if you ask me. Nothing supports that, neither archaeology, neither modern phylogenetic tree.
Nevertheless, if it's NW Anatolia, it would be one of the biggest surprises coming from aDNA.
The crucial point is that the E-V13 has a timing, and in this time window, E-V13 was still largely living together, and had a sizeable population, especially for the Carpatho-Balkan sphere, a bigger one. So any scenario needs to account for this large population which rapidly expanded in that specific time window into the Balkans, wether E-V13 was in the Balkans before or not. Clearly, you need an archaeological culture and phenomenon to explain that and there is in fact none other, so far untested or undertested, than Channelled Ware. And its the only undertested phenomenon in the right time frame, of the right size, still undertested, which was considered ancestral to the Daco-Thracians by a couple of authors in past and presence.
North Western Anatolia doesn't fit into anything of this at all. I would rather bet on Brnjica from Southern Serbia-Kosovo than on North Western Anatolia, because they were at least connected to the Carpatho-Balkan cremation block and played a role in that time frame, even though they seem to have been largely degraded by Channelled Ware later and might be associated with a different people.
But that just shows how bad North Western Anatolia looks, really bad.