Politics Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

@Riverman
The problem is the Putin regime not Zelensky's regime.
They are both problematic. Selenski did absolutely nothing to de-escalate, made absurd demands and is leading Ukraine in a total war. He doesn?t even care if his gambling destroys the Ukraine and he won't care if it would escalate to a nuclear 3rd World War.
That much is clear. He had all the time and chances to show not just Russia, but the world, that he takes negotiations seriously and wants a peaceful solution, just like he promised in his election campaign.
Absolutely nothing came from him, he only escalated to the next level.
Granted, Putin wasn't any better, but in terms of warmongering, they are equals.
Selenski started a suicidal course deliberately and now he wants the whole world to follow him into disaster? He is an irresponsible egomaniac.
I am very sorry for the Ukrainian people, but I hope that not millions or even billions have to die for this regime in Kiev to prove them victorious at all costs.
Selenski and Putin are equals in neglecting the value of human life and well-being for their personal goals.
What did Ukraine offer the Russians for a peaceful solution? Nothing but to continue the war, as soon as possible with direct NATO support.
 
I said it on the first page of this thread and I still believe it; the West will let Ukraine go.

All of these sanctions avoid the one thing that Putin needs to prop himself up: his oil and gas sales.

Western Europe will not endanger those because it would impact its own economy; the deal it still no doubt hopes it will be able to implement one day is still waiting.

The U.S., with a President who was so risk averse he didn't want to go in after Bin Laden, will not lead the way. Nor will he put up a no-fly zone, which at least we did for the Kurds.

All of this despite the fact there is a written agreement on the table, guaranteed by Russia, the U.S., and the U.K., that Ukraine's sovereignty would be respected.

In light of that fact does anyone really believe the west will suddenly find its courage and moral compass because of another piece of paper, the NATO agreements?

If I were a leader of one of the former Eastern Bloc countries, I wouldn't believe it for a second and I would start preparing now.

The rest is just theater.

Russia will have no economy by June with the sanctions taken. I wonder if Ukraine manages to survive till at least August maybe Putin might retreat.

[FONT=&quot]"Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left."


https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500305539707801601?s=20&t=prbF3t7dSba-vy_2qxr19A


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I saw just a Dutch farmer he has a big farm in the Ukraine, owner of 15000 hectares of grain area. He states that when the war not will stop quit immediately this wil lead to a big big food crisis.....
How is Dutch people saying about its risk on Russia?
Now Shell bought highly discounted Russian oil and wall street tried to buy Russian bonds with cheap money.
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Under the bloody situation I think some countries are grinning at their private rooms. Some countries suffocate with the flood of oil money, however, try not to take a care of their poor neighbours with the same religion. Nobody says about China regarding Covid. Finally Germany decided to raise their defence budget which makes the dream of the US come true.
Moreover US dollar is now more dominant as a safe heaven asset:
"Sanctioning Russia is a masterstroke that will cement the dollar’s dominant role in world affairs."
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...rld-affairs-11646237194?mod=project-syndicate
 
Russia will have no economy by June with the sanctions taken. I wonder if Ukraine manages to survive till at least August maybe Putin might retreat.

"Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left."


https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500305539707801601?s=20&t=prbF3t7dSba-vy_2qxr19A

I think it is not simple that way. There is a reason for wall street to buy Russian bond now. Before that, thousands of factories in west would be closed due to high price of natural resources. Russia has a back-up, china and India. Russia has already a long term contract of natural resources with china which has a different dream to make Russia as chinese vassal state. Moreover Russia reserves enough foreign currency to buy product from china and India.
More big problem in Ukraine is Neon than wheat. 70% of Neon in the world is produced in Ukraine, without which chips cannot be produced.
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Russia will have no economy by June with the sanctions taken. I wonder if Ukraine manages to survive till at least August maybe Putin might retreat.

"Our conditional deadline is June. Conditional because in June there will be no economy left in Russia – there will be nothing left."


https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500305539707801601?s=20&t=prbF3t7dSba-vy_2qxr19A






First of all there is no way Ukraine wil stand till august if the west doesn't impose the no-fly zone.
Putin will step up his cruelties. The number of civilian casualties is already rising the last few days.
He won't hesitate to use cluster bombs or chemical warfare.

Second Putin is not worried about the Russian economy.
He only cares for himself and his direct entourage.
If necessary he will also use terror against his own Russian citizens.
Do you think the Communists cared about the economy?
History might repeat itself.
 
I think it is not simple that way. There is a reason for wall street to buy Russian bond now. Before that, thousands of factories in west would be closed due to high price of natural resources. Russia has a back-up, china and India. Russia has already a long term contract of natural resources with china which has a different dream to make Russia as chinese vassal state. Moreover Russia reserves enough foreign currency to buy product from china and India.
More big problem in Ukraine is Neon than wheat. 70% of Neon in the world is produced in Ukraine, without which chips cannot be produced.

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what is Neon?
 
what is Neon?

Its even on Wikipedia:
Neon is produced from air in cryogenic air-separation plants. A gas-phase mixture mainly of nitrogen, neon, and helium is withdrawn from the main condenser at the top of the high-pressure air-separation column and fed to the bottom of a side column for rectification of the neon.[42] It can then be further purified from helium.

Ninety per cent of neon production is in Russia and Ukraine.[43] As of 2020, the company Iceblick, with plants in Odessa and Moscow, supplies 65 per cent of the world's production of neon, as well as 15% of the krypton and xenon.[44][45]

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine is likely to create a shortage of industrial neon, as Ukraine is a major producer of neon gas critical for lasers used in chipmaking, and supplies more than 90% of U.S. semiconductor-grade neon.[45][44]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neon
 

Absolutely, people need to realise in what situation Russia is by now. To corner it even more without any reasonable exit strategy is the most stupid thing the West could do. They should keep up a certain pressure on Russia, but at the same time force the Ukrainian government make a real peace offer and take negotiations seriously and allowing Russia to get out of this conflict heads up with a fair compromise. That is something they should have done from the start, instead of entrenching a hardliner position in Ukraine which was just confrontational.
 
Absolutely, people need to realise in what situation Russia is by now. To corner it even more without any reasonable exit strategy is the most stupid thing the West could do. They should keep up a certain pressure on Russia, but at the same time force the Ukrainian government make a real peace offer and take negotiations seriously and allowing Russia to get out of this conflict heads up with a fair compromise. That is something they should have done from the start, instead of entrenching a hardliner position in Ukraine which was just confrontational.

Imo it is not Russia it is Putin. Putin is eager to restore "czaristic Russia" his big legacy. After the fall of the fall, the KGB spy became taxi driver. This is his (personal) ultimate revanche! This is not the will of the Russian people (see how thousands of them protest despite they were take of to jail....). They are not motivated for Putin's agenda.

That Putin thing is tricky because a Dutch saying is imo accurat: "a cornered cat makes weird jumps".

There are two versions about Putin:
1. he is gone made, gone bereserk
2. he plays he has gone made.

What is it?

In both cases a mindset of one leader cornered, isolated, with only yes marbles....this is the ultimate unpredictability.
 
Imo it is not Russia it is Putin. Putin is eager to restore "czaristic Russia" his big legacy. After the fall of the fall, the KGB spy became taxi driver. This is his (personal) ultimate revanche! This is not the will of the Russian people (see how thousands of them protest despite they were take of to jail....). They are not motivated for Putin's agenda.

That Putin thing is tricky because a Dutch saying is imo accurat: "a cornered cat makes weird jumps".

There are two versions about Putin:
1. he is gone made, gone bereserk
2. he plays he has gone made.

What is it?

In both cases a mindset of one leader cornered, isolated, with only yes marbles....this is the ultimate unpredictability.

Always looking just at Putin is wrong, because he got also cornered by the Ukraine hardliner position, which cut off Crimea from water and attacked the Donbas region, not caring about the Minsk Agreement. They banned all pro-Russian media stations and tried to persecute pro-Russian activists, unleashing massive anti-Russian propaganda. So this was without doubt confrontational, by a president Selenski which got voted into office for promising peace and reconciliation with Russia, so he is an obvious liar.

He was brought into office, at least in part, by this guy, which is a criminal oligarch in Ukraine:
In April 2014 Kolomoyskyi offered a bounty for the capture of Russian-backed militants and incentives for the turning in of weapons.[44] He also is believed to have spent $10 million to create the Dnipro Battalion,[43][45] and also funded the Aidar, Azov, Dnepr 1, Dnepr 2, and Donbas volunteer battalions.

He is a Russian-hater and warmonger, a sought after criminal, for which Selenski would have paced the path back to his "assets" in the Ukraine on the longer run. Selenski was first made popular by his TV show, in which he played the president of the Ukraine, in which he was a dismantlingly honest and upright teacher, so an image was created for him. Then he got a massive presidential campaign, especially in Kolomoyskyi TV station 1+1:

He also has media interests in the 1+1 Media Group, which operates eight Ukrainian TV channels.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ihor_Kolomoyskyi

Selenski does care **** about the Ukrainian losses and destruction, and he will escalate this to the next level, even a nuclear war with Russia, he is a completley irresponsible person.

Putin is in a position like Rubio claimed, but what should we learn from this? This Selenski regime is as problematic and to give it unconditional support means just adding fuel to the fire, nothing else. Selenski planned that confrontation, he didn't care, he deliberately ignored all peace offers and compromises, even though he promised to reach out for peace to his Ukrainian voters!
I understand if people hate Putin for what he did, but I don't understand how people can support Selenski as much as they do, because he is as bad or worse. If the Western powers helped Selenski & Kolomoyskyi to establish their regime in Ukraine and armed it up, with the prospect of joining NATO without any agreement reached with Russia, what did anybody expect to happen? They tried to turn Ukraine into an anti-Russian bridgehead in Eastern Europe. The anti-Russian hate propaganda started years ago and was financed by a group of Ukrainian oligarchs which control the mass media and all dissenting views being banned in the recent years.
Putin did overreact and cause unjustified destruction and suffering, but he didn't do it just out of the blue, there is an objective reason to it, because the Selenski regime is a hostile, oligarch-financed threat.
 
To expand on the issue, this is how the oligarch Kolomoyskyi used the private militias in the past, its indeed as bad as it was in the worst times of Yeltsin's Russia, when the mob could just grab companies by force:

The worrying thing about Kolomoisky's raid on the oil company last week is that it seems to have partially worked: Kolomoisky may not have been able to keep his ally in the chairman's job, but he reportedly said that he and Ukraine's president have reached an agreement to install a temporary chairman for UkrTransNafta who "would not be carrying out any investigations of its finances." Kolomoisky has significant interests in the oil company; now, it seems, he's been able to use his private army to shield his business dealings from legal or financial scrutiny.
While fighting the war against the separatists might be a priority now, at some point the Ukrainian government needs to be able to govern Ukraine. It can't do that if parts of the country are dominated by militias that don't obey any official authority.
Adrian Karatnycky, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, warned during an interview in February that simply by existing, those private armies could be "creating enough of an implicit threat that the government can't move against, say, corrupt schemes." The events in Ukraine last week suggest his concerns were well-placed.
These groups pose a serious threat to Ukrainian civilians, as well. In December, pro-Kiev militias blocked humanitarian aid from reaching rebel-held areas of eastern Ukraine. Amnesty International researcher Denis Krivosheev said the militias were using starvation of civilians as a weapon, and called the tactic a war crime.

https://www.vox.com/2015/3/23/8279397/kolomoisky-oligarch-ukraine-militia

Note these are the same kind of people which now mistreat and torture Russian prisoners of war, or which keep husbands and sons from fleeing the country and pushing them into military units as cannon fodder and which, in the official news we get today, complain about the Russian side if its about the humanitarian corridors.

What did the West do? What did the West do, when hundreds of thousands of pro-Russian Ukrainians fled the country to Russia? No outcry, nothing. This is pure hypocrisy. USA and UK not just watched the conflict unfolding, they indeed added fuel to it and now they just blame one side. Sorry, but that's not fair, its as simple as that. They acted both bad enough to be blamed, and they both need to accept a compromise which is probably not ideal but a meaningful peaceful solution. Anything else, like stepping up violence for the Selenski regime, even with the threat of a nuclear 3rd World War is pure madness. And talking about democracy in such a manipulated setting like Ukraine is also a questionable thing to do, its all about geostrategical and personal financial-power interests, West and Russia alike.
 
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He's wrong to emphasize Putin is 70 years old.
When only Putin is removed, a similar man from the Kremlin KGB will persecute Putin's ambitions.
When they get Ukraine, they'll go for Georgia and Moldavia.
And if they get away with that, they'll go to for the Baltic states.

Putin's confidence got a blow because he underestimated Ukraine's resistance.
Now is the moment to strike.
If you let this pass he'll step up in Ukraine with cluster bombs and chemical warfare.
And after that he'll go further.
 
ok, it's the chemical element, an inert gas.
I guess they use it in the semiconductor industry to shield the chips from oxydation while producing the chip.
I suppose they will find an alternative if there is a shortage for Neon, albeit maybe something more expensive.

They don't have the capability to replace those production facilities. So the shortage will come and be a major issue for the chip production. However, its not that Western nations can't do that themselves, but it will need more time and investment than people might anticipate. So if this won't be solved soon in Ukraine/Russia, it will lead to serious problems for the whole production chain.

He's wrong to emphasize Putin is 70 years old.
When only Putin is removed, a similar man from the Kremlin KGB will persecute Putin's ambitions.
When they get Ukraine, they'll go for Georgia and Moldavia.
And if they get away with that, they'll go to for the Baltic states.

Putin's confidence got a blow because he underestimated Ukraine's resistance.
Now is the moment to strike.
If you let this pass he'll step up in Ukraine with cluster bombs and chemical warfare.
And after that he'll go further.

No, the situation is tense, Russia is cornered, being attacked by NATO, e.g. under the premise of a "No-Fly zone", which means open war, also means a lot of Russian and NATO pilotes will be shot down and this is open war. From the point of Russia losing air superiority, they can only resort to weapons of mass destruction to save their position. So you really want to start a nuclear 3rd World War for this irresponsible Selenski and his allied oligarchs? They brought Ukraine to this point as much as Putin did, with being hardline anti-Russian and confrontational, without any chance for Russia to solve this peacefully.
This was absolutely unnecessary, they crossed many red lines and they knew it. Now they escalated the war even further and don't care for civilians or this becoming World War III. You know, for Kolomoyskyi and other mobsters like him, its a personal issue also, because they own large fractions of Ukraine, and he already lost "his assets" in Crimea and being persecuted by Russia and was persecuted in Ukraine also. Yet he has his private militias, which did multiple atrocities and he even paid bounties for Russians and pro-Russian Ukrainians, which fights this war.
With Kolomoyskyi and others like him behind Selenski, which lied, when he promised to find a diplomatic solution with Russia in his election campaign, there was obviously no peaceful solution to this conflict, because they want to keep their grip on the country. The Ukrainian nationalists and patriots being just abused for their interests, but at least they know what they are fighting for or think they do, but the common Ukrainian population was dragged into this by the Selenski regime and he is unwilling to find any peaceful solution.
Kolomoyskyi hates Russia, wants to bring it down, and he wants his private assets from Crimea back and staying one of the oligarchs of Ukraine.

And for that bunch the West should start World War III? Seriously?

There is absolutely no evidence whatsoever for Russian plans other than the current or former GUS states:
Commonwealth_of_Independent_States.svg


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Independent_States

Russia has neither the intention nor the capability to go any further by force. That's just invented anti-Russian propaganda!

The West should make clear for Selenski that he should go back to the negotiations table and show good will for coming to a peaceful agreement, or the support gets cut. But of course, they never will do that, because they being so deeply involved into this conflict by now and made up "good vs. evil" narrative. And especially the USA and UK don't care, because they wanted Russia down or at least isolated before already. They were always against Nordstream II, as if a dependence from American fracking gas would be better than the Russian pipeline for Europe.

That regime of Selenski did so many things to escalate that conflict and so little for de-escalation, that I see absolutely no reason for risking a 3rd world war for these warmongers. They brought themselves into this situation with Putin as equally responsible. Putin had no right to escalate to that level, but he was running out of options by being cornered aggressively by both the Selenski regime and USA plus UK. Either they wanted war or they deliberately risked it, now they are out to blame all the others and demand even more escalation. What for? They should push for a diplomatic solution, like they should have already 8 years ago instead of such an awful confrontational stance which causes only suffering and destruction.
 
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More about the oligarch behind Selenski, from a very solid and well-established German newspaper, so not from a "biased source" or "fake news", I simply used Google translate:

Kolomoisky rejected the cornerstone of his current empire of industrial companies, banks, media and airlines in the 1990s, according to his opponents with the violent conquest of companies. In 2005, Kolomoisky was suspected of having commissioned a murder lawyer. Kolomoisky denied all allegations, the General Prosecutor's Office closed the investigation. When his business partner was dismissed as head of a state oil transport company in early 2015, Kolomoisky had his private militia storm the company headquarters. President Petro Poroshenko fired Kolomoisky as governor - the beginning of arch-enmity.
In late 2016, Kolomoisky's PrivatBank was nationalized after Kolomoisky and business partners apparently plundered the bank to the point of leaving a $5 billion hole in its balance sheet. Kolomoisky says he is the victim of a political intrigue. In 2016, one of his business partners was arrested on suspicion of murder and kidnapping. Kolomoisky moved to Switzerland and then to Israel in the summer of 2018.

Like Selensky, Kolomoisky is of Jewish descent. In addition to the Ukrainian one, he has an Israeli passport. Dual citizenship is punishable under Ukrainian law, but for Kolomoisky it has the advantage that Israel does not extradite its citizens. There are a number of court proceedings against Kolomoisky in Ukraine and Switzerland; The FBI is also said to be investigating him on suspicion of money laundering - his lawyer denies any wrongdoing. In the last presidential campaign, Kolomoisky did everything he could to overthrow his nemesis Poroshenko. First he relied on ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, then on Volodymyr Zelensky, who as an actor and producer has been connected to Kolomoisky's television channel 1+1 for years. Selensky denies any influence by Kolomoisky. But he has visited Kolomoisky 14 times since 2017, in Geneva and Israel, and even for four days in December 2018. On New Year's Eve, Selensky was allowed to speak on 1+1 at midnight in place of the president and declare his candidacy. Kolomoisky's lawyer Andriy Bohdan also plays a role in Selensky's team and has already been sent to secret meetings, for example with the head of the anti-corruption office investigating in several cases against Kolomoisky. Shortly before Selensky's election victory, a court in Kyiv declared the nationalization of PrivatBank illegal - Kolomoisky could face billions in compensation. Parliamentarian Serhiy Leshchenko called the verdict "the direct result of corruption in the courts." One of Zelensky's advisors says that the possible further influence of Kolomoisky is now "the greatest danger to his presidency".

https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik...schaftswahl-in-der-ukraine-selensky-1.4418172

What a fine president this is and he wants to get Crimea back for his supporter Kolomoisky and Russia on its knees. Even though the Crimeans don't want to belong to Ukraine, but that doesn't matter. All these "games" in the background make this Ukrainian state definitely not any better than Russia. For that regime the Western states should risk a nuclear war, because of their greed and stubbornness, them being unwilling to accept any fair compromise with Russia? They offered nothing, nothing at all, even though Selenski lied and promised peace in his election campaign, he did nothing but stepping up with the escalation.
 
The US gone mad, this is from CNN, which became a direct propaganda media outlet:
But with the United States making clear it views countries that don't condemn Putin's war as aligned with Russia, the world's two most populous nations are facing increased international pressure to speak out -- or risk being seen as complicit.

That neither country has chosen to do so has illuminated Russia's outsized influence in Asia, where arms sales and no-strings-attached trade have allowed Moscow to exploit regional fault lines and weaker ties to the West.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/07/asia/china-india-ukraine-reaction-intl-hnk-dst/index.html
 
First of all there is no way Ukraine wil stand till august if the west doesn't impose the no-fly zone.
Putin will step up his cruelties. The number of civilian casualties is already rising the last few days.
He won't hesitate to use cluster bombs or chemical warfare.

Second Putin is not worried about the Russian economy.
He only cares for himself and his direct entourage.
If necessary he will also use terror against his own Russian citizens.
Do you think the Communists cared about the economy?
History might repeat itself.

Honestly at this point i have to partially agree with Riverman, in that Zelensky should just give up. Else he is just asking for more dead civilians especially when he asks them to help the military fighting. not to mention the soldiers who will die. the West should just try to keep up those sanctions as long as possible and hope that Putin goes away asap and that things change afterwards.
 

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