Politics Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

Tomenable said:
^^^ Here is the original Strelkov's text - https://vk.com/iistrelkov?w=wall-129997795_177666
Click to expand...

^^^ Comments by other VK users are also interesting:

https://vk-com.translate.goog/iistrelkov?w=wall-129997795_177666&_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pl

WzwVhWy.png
 
Since 2014 there has been official embargo on export of weaponry from the European Union to Russia:

https://www.sipri.org/databases/embargoes/eu_arms_embargoes/Russia/EU-embargo-on-Russia

EU embargo on Russia

In response to the Russian involvement in the conflict in Ukraine that started in early 2014, the EU imposed on 31 July 2014 sanctions against Russia, including an arms embargo, by adopting Council Decision 2014/512/CFSP, and Council Regulation (EU) No 833/2014.

The sanctions prohibit any involvement in the supply of arms and services related to military to Russia or dual use items for military use or military end-users in Russia by nationals of EU states or from the territories of EU states, unless contracts or agreements for such supplies had been concluded before 1 august 2014. The prohibition includes involvement in transport or financing of arms and dual use goods for military use for Russia. The prohibition includes the export of items that are to be subsequently re-exported from Russia to a third country.

In addition the import, purchase or transport of arms from Russia was prohibited, unless contracts or agreements had been concluded before 1 august 2014 and with the exception of items and services necessary for the maintenance of equipment already within the EU.

The embargo was initially in place until 31 July 2015, but has since been extended regularly. It is currently in place until 31 January 2022.

Last updated on 29 July 2021
Embargo type: EU embargoes
Entry into force: 31 July 2014
Establishing document: 2014/512/CFSP

Documents related to this arms embargo:

EU Council Regulation No 833/2014 (2014) - https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2016-03/2014.pdf
EU Council Decision 2014/512/CFSP (2014) - https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2016-03/CFSP_11.pdf
EU embargo on Russia | SIPRI - https://www.sipri.org/databases/embargoes/eu_arms_embargoes/Russia/EU-embargo-on-Russia
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^^^
Germany, France & a few other EU states have illegally exported weapons to Russia despite the embargo:

Gjlk7IQ.jpg
 
Tomenable said:
Pro-Russian former commander of Donbas separatists says this:

https://rentry.co/2gqat

"Igor Ivanovich Strelkov

THE 24TH DAY OF THE WAR

"Drip! Drip! Drip!" - Like water from a leaky hanging basin, drop by drop the days are gone. Along with priceless time, lives and resources go nowhere. On the front there are local battles, except in Donbass, where the command wastes the last forces of the bleeding Donetsk and Luhansk infantry, repeatedly storming the Ukraine Army strongholds in Avdiivka and Marinka.

And now the systematic (after several days of street fighting) retreat of the enemy from Rubizhne to Severodonetsk becomes the only "major victory" in two days. Even the ultra-optimistic propagandist Podolyaka, who knows how to "suck victories out of his finger" on any occasion, stopped mentioning the "quick encirclement" of the Donetsk Ukraine Army groupings.

Russian troops are firmly "stuck" EVERYWHERE.

There is no mobilization. Yesterday the president did not even hint at the possibility of it. And without mobilization, victory over the so-called "Ukraine" is impossible "from the word go".

The AF of Ukraine, in spite of constant losses, will soon receive tens of thousands of mobilized troops, and within a couple of months their number will reach 2-3 hundred thousand. They will be given weapons by "dear Western partners" - in any quantity, including the most modern ones. They are already sending them.

The moment is not far off when the Ukrainian command, which has recovered from the first shock, will throw its troops into counterattacks in the most vulnerable (for our troops) directions.

And against this background, the vile smell of "new Minsk betrayal" is increasingly felt in the air. It is becoming increasingly clear that the Kremlin is no longer planning to fight to victory.

Except that there will be no "Minsk-3". A few more weeks of "standing" - and instead of a "mutually acceptable compromise" (to which the slimy Medinsky hints) - the "respected Ukrainian partners" will once again demand unconditional surrender from the Kremlin. That is: "withdraw troops, surrender Donbass, return Crimea", and then "pay and repent." TOTAL SILENCE.

And then the war will have to go on. In much more difficult conditions and with a much stronger opponent.

But in the meantime - "drip! drip! drip!" - the days are gone, the opportunities associated with the most invaluable resource (after human lives) - time - are gone.

Pub: Mar 19 2022 16:41 UTC"
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That's nonsense, one of the first major plugs being almost completely lifted, I speak about Mariupol. The defense there will be broken within days, probably 1-2 weeks. This free up to 15.000 soldiers for moving forward and the Russian army moves already towards the back of the Western Donbas frontier, which begins to crumble. In 1-2 weeks the UAF will just run, you will see. Unless the Russian moral breaks under the pressure, the whole frontline will crumble and break into pieces.
The main reason why the Ukrainians still cause so much trouble for the Russians is that they get massive support, including mercenaries, top level anti-tank and anti-aircraft systems and a full spectrum of intelligence and radar support. Besides, the Ukraine is one of the strongest countries by size, population and military in Europe. If they would put up stiff resistance, especially by turning all their cities into fortresses which need to be levelled to conquer them with acceptable losses, it needs time, will cost a lot of destruction and lifes. But that's the strategy Selenski has chosen and Russia reacted the only reasonable way, under the given circumstances, to use the steamroller tactic, city by city, turning it into rubble with its superiour artillery.

And that's what we are seeing. The first Mariupol, which is practically gone for the Ukrainians, and the other "plugs" will be gone soon. As long as the Russians go on as they do, the Ukrainians will lose, slowly but steadily. When the Russians come closer to the Western border of the Ukraine, the chances for incidents with the NATO troops and especially the trigger happy neighbours, in particular Poland, might rise, as will the pressure by the maniac media in the USA to start an open war with Russia. Its incredibly how hateful, biased, completely one sided and aggressive the American media have become.
Not that here in Europe the more objective media are pro-Russian, not at all, but they at least try to be somewhat more objective and not pushing our states to a 3rd World War. When 60 something women in American breakfast TV talk about how "they want to attack Russia", and how to imprison "traitors" for speaking out the truth about the conflict and the consequences of a direct American military action, you know that they are close to falling off the cliff.
If Europe wouldn't be in between, I might even say "go forward and do your crap, you will regret it soon", but unfortuntely Europe, including my home, is between these trigger happy cowboys which want to conquer the world and the Russians which don't want the Yankees in their foregarden and that becomes increasingly unpleasant.
And it doesn't really help the Ukrainians, the more reasonable Ukranians, at all, because they don't wanted their homes ruined, their fathers, brothers, husbands and sons killed, probably even their children or wives, losing the life they had before, for conquering Crimea and Donbas back. That was of course just the plan of the Selenski regime with the support of Biden. And what do we hear from US politicians: They not just push the Selenski regime to accept a reasonable peace agreement, they push him to refuse it!

The Americans not just fuel this war with their active military support, they also fuel it by political pressure and back up on those elements in the regime which want to continue this war "at all costs", to bring Russia down and to conquer Donbas and Crimea back. But as things are, that won't happen, because the Russians might be slow, but they win methodically, as long as their morale doesn't collapse or being shattered by the massive external propaganda on the youth.

Therefore the clock is indeed ticking, but for a peace agreement. Because what are the Americans supposed to do, and the Poles, once the Russian army comes closer to the Western borders and they start to use their tactics on Kiev? Which they will, once they have rolled up the Eastern front, which will be in about 2-3 weeks I would guess. What will they do then? Even more fuel to the war? The next escalation level? From the first hour of the attack on the Russians Americans will die, and Russia will retaliate on the bases of the Americans, from where they started. Then what?
Are they completely insane, do they hate Russia so much, that they want to destroy themselves for bringing them down?
 
Another piece of hysterical Putinist propaganda.

Putin is a war criminal who started this war...oh sorry.."military operation".
 
Riverman said:
The main reason why the Ukrainians still cause so much trouble for the Russians is that they get massive support, including mercenaries, top level anti-tank and anti-aircraft systems and a full spectrum of intelligence and radar support. Besides, the Ukraine is one of the strongest countries by size, population and military in Europe. If they would put up stiff resistance, especially by turning all their cities into fortresses which need to be levelled to conquer them with acceptable losses, it needs time, will cost a lot of destruction and lifes. But that's the strategy Selenski has chosen and Russia reacted the only reasonable way, under the given circumstances, to use the steamroller tactic, city by city, turning it into rubble with its superiour artillery.

And that's what we are seeing. The first Mariupol, which is practically gone for the Ukrainians, and the other "plugs" will be gone soon. As long as the Russians go on as they do, the Ukrainians will lose, slowly but steadily. When the Russians come closer to the Western border of the Ukraine, the chances for incidents with the NATO troops and especially the trigger happy neighbours, in particular Poland, might rise, as will the pressure by the maniac media in the USA to start an open war with Russia. Its incredibly how hateful, biased, completely one sided and aggressive the American media have become.
Not that here in Europe the more objective media are pro-Russian, not at all, but they at least try to be somewhat more objective and not pushing our states to a 3rd World War. When 60 something women in American breakfast TV talk about how "they want to attack Russia", and how to imprison "traitors" for speaking out the truth about the conflict and the consequences of a direct American military action, you know that they are close to falling off the cliff.
If Europe wouldn't be in between, I might even say "go forward and do your crap, you will regret it soon", but unfortuntely Europe, including my home, is between these trigger happy cowboys which want to conquer the world and the Russians which don't want the Yankees in their foregarden and that becomes increasingly unpleasant.
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Putin was expecting a full takeover of Ukraine by 2nd March:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/27/ex-russian-official-putins-plan-is-full-victory-on-march-2


The operation has been so far not just bad but humiliating. As for the threats from Putin; that is not disdain that we witnessed but panic and hysteria.
Keep celebrating 50 square centimeters that Russia occupied this week, though.
 
Vallicanus said:
Another piece of hysterical Putinist propaganda.

Putin is a war criminal who started this war...oh sorry.."military operation".
Click to expand...

What's your suggestion for ending this war and save lifes before it escalates to the next level?

Mine is negotiations and a peace agreement which gives Russia Crimea and ends the sanctions. As for Donbas, at least autonomy or Internationally accepted annexion, depending on the situation of the war.
What's your stance?
No peace before Russia crumbles?
 
țațo said:
litle putler troll... The master of your mind ... is Putin's terrorist psychopath!? He's not fit to take anything! He will only go into the darkness of history, being blasphemed by all.
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And how do you want to do that without plunging the world into World War III? How far are you ready to go for your "great cause" of destroying Russia?
 
țațo said:
I do not want to destroy Russia. Your demented russian putler master want...
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If Russia fails, and they lose both Crimea, Donbas and their influence on Ukraine, that will be such a big blow...
Well, nevermind, how do you want to get rid of Putin and any similar regime which want allow the above mentioned blow to happen? You just have no reasonable answer, like most of the warmongers. They just say "escalate, escalate..." And what's next? How does this solve anything or save anybody?

And strategically, we saw a major turning point in the ongoing war. Russia breaks through the hardest defenses in the South and centre, the UAF can only hold them up Kharkiv by now. The whole frontline will be rolled up, this will be an encirclement operation like the annihilation of Heeresgruppe Mitte in the 2nd World War and its coming. Kharkiv will stay for longer, but the rest will be cut off and encircled, unless they run. The attack on Donbas brought the necessary success two ways:
- Fixing major Ukrainian forces, which couldn't retreat or help elsewhere
- Now even breaking through, before the attack from the back starts to come.

Yes, the Russians had more losses than expected, they are behind schedule. But that's it. Now they realised they have to do it the hard way and that's what they are doing.

Like I wrote before: What's next? The Ukrainian resistance will fall back West of Kiev within a month if things go on like that. This means the city will be cut off, just like Khakiv will even sooner. At the same time, the Southern front comes closer to Odessa, minor counter offensives don't change that.

What this means: Either the Americans join the war directly with the imminent threat of World War III starting, or the Ukrainians have to negotiate before their front collapses completely. Some of you and the Western media outlets always speak about the Russian losses, but the Ukrainian ones are even higher and because of the ongoing operations in the East, they are close to losing their best units, many of them completely, very soon. I mean whole army groups being now encircled and or begin to run.

There are just negotiations or watching while the rest of the Ukraine being reduced to rubble - or starting World War III.

Which is why I'm asking, regardless of what you think about Putin or Russia, what's your alternative? Any reasonable human being will agree that negotations are the way to go and that the Ukraine shouldn't insist on reconquering territories which are essential for Russia and which people don't want to belong to a "new Ukraine" anyway. That's just how it is.
 
It is very sad that the servants of the criminal psychopath Putin are supported by the moderators here. I tried to draw attention to this issue ... but all my posts and accounts were deleted every time, instead of taking a stand against the supporters of the ongoing genocide, backed by the Russian troll army with representatives here as well.
 
Riverman said:
What's your suggestion for ending this war and save lifes before it escalates to the next level?
Mine is negotiations and a peace agreement which gives Russia Crimea and ends the sanctions. As for Donbas, at least autonomy or Internationally accepted annexion, depending on the situation of the war.
What's your stance?
No peace before Russia crumbles?
Click to expand...

Riverman I guess the biggest difference at least with me is that we have different axioma's. I'm reasoning that the Ukraine is an independent country. Putin is convinced that Ukraine is not legitimate, it's beneath the sphere of influence so an attack, which is not an attack more a kind of 'police action' is legitimate. You seem to have sympathy with this kind of reasoning. I'm against it, it turns the clock more than 70 years ago. Putin has no legitimacy to attack the Ukraine.

The war must be a big disappointment for Putin. No people with flags and flowers along the street but a severe resistance of the Ukrainian army. It's not ruled out that Putin made some decisions on wishful thinking information from the FSB etc. But a withdrawal is a "no go" in the Kremlin. So what we see now is hammering through with hypersonic weapons etc etc. This is a cover up for a lousy performance of the Russian army.

Nevertheless the ruthless cynicism (bomb whole cities to ashes) in the end it will be enough to conquer the southeastern parts of the Ukraine and may be Kyiv. Nevertheless sooner or later Putin wil not be able to keep the Ukraine under control. Putin's Russia will stay the paria. We already see a brain drain of whiz kids via Turkey.

All we can do now is supply arms to Ukraine, keep the sanctions towards tight, resist the impulse to confront NATO directly and respond accurately to a Putin's Russia in decline....Putin is probably going to act derailed (he already does).
 
How the US selection was manipulated by anti-Trump bias of the mass media vs. the protection of the Biden family:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xbV0oPZuRo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iiloKxcqp6M

I'd agree, this war wouldn't have happened without Biden coming into office. The conflict with Russia would have escalated with an Hilltary Clinton administration in Syria already, if she would have been brought into office. The deep state wanted that conflict with Russia to escalate, back then already.

And yes, the Biden family and the Democrats owe much to the Selenski regime, for keeping their mouth shut and blocking Trump. Now they paid back with this massive support for a regime which wants to conquer people in Crimea and Donbas which don't want to be part of that state and destroying the lifes of millions, risking a 3rd World war for it.
 
Northener said:
Riverman I guess the biggest difference at least with me is that we have different axioma's. I'm reasoning that the Ukraine is an independent country. ...
Click to expand...

That's not my issue, my issue is that we had a de facto situation in Eastern Ukraine, with the Donbas and Crimea. The early war showed that in the Eastern Ukraine, before the massive propaganda efforts, was a significant pro-Russian sentiment, reaching further than what the Donbas Republics controlled before the recent escalation.
So the minimum the Ukraine should have aknowledged, if they want to depart and go their own way, is to accept the seccession of Crimea and open the water supply again, instead of drying the country out, give up on Donbas or grant it autonomy as the minimum, and declare itself a neutral state. Instead they actively engaged in becoming a NATO member, armed up, prepared for the reconquest of Donbas and ultimately even Crimea, and constantly shelled and attacked the Donbas areas, including attacks on civilians and the killings of local leaders. They completely ignored Minks II, refused to enter any negotiations and just kept on pushing, once the Biden administration declared its full support - also because the US establishment/deep state wanted the conflict with Russia and the Biden family owes the Selenski regime and the Ukrainian oligarchs a lot.

Independent country on paper never stopped the US or anybody else to intervene, and the Ukraine clearly, especially its Eastern territories, are not in the same way an independent country as e.g. Poland is for the Russians. The Ukrainians followed an aggressive and confrontational path, absolutely ignoring any Russian interests and internally purging the whole country with arrests, persecutions, blackmailing, censorship, disappropriation and even murder from any pro-Russian significant movement and sentiment. The recent Ukrainian regimes, but Selenski in particular, practically declared war on Russia.

All of this has a prehistory, its not like "Russia invaded an independent country without reason and legitimate claims out of nothing". If anybody pushes that narrative, its just a blatant lie.

My issue is more with the exact borders as with the Ukrainian people and their independence as such. They should have accepted the established borders since 2014 as a fact, make peace and come to terms with Russia. That was the deal for kind of leaving the wider Russian state, to develop like they want from then on, as a neutral state.

People might say Ukrainians have the rights to do this or that, Russia has its interests and rights as well, and the outcome of such a conflict was predictable: It will escalate.
Is it worth it?

I think both the Ukrainians and the Russians acted horrible in the last years on the issue. I see no perpetrator and victim, I just see two sides in conflict which are both good and evil, which have both legitimate and illegitimate claims. My main interest is that they stop the killing and end the war, make peace with each other. And from my personal perspective, I think the Donbas people and Crimeans have the right to join Russia, at their will, especially under the given circumstances.
If the Ukrainians want to reconquer and suppress, displace or annihilate them, I see no just cause and absolutely no claim to support such a goal. And this became, by now, the main reason for the war going on. These territories and the neutral status of Ukraine.

Where is the right to self-determination for those people? Where is the right of Russia to secure its borders and sphere of influence, just like the USA do it all the time and go even much further than that. These are not the same rules. We saw it in the past, many times.
Its not like I prefer the Serbs over the Croats or anything, but remember when the Serbs weren't allowed to form their own state or join with Serbia in their territories in Croatia and Bosnia? Yet when they lost, they could be expelled from Krajina and the "international community" barely noticed.
The USA always interferes in a way which brings them into a better position. If the US establishement conceives a people as hostile vs. potential allies or simply weakening an opposing force, like the Serbs.

Take for example what happens or happened in Rwanda, Armenia-Azerbaijan, Bahrain, in Yemen or in Ethiopia. If its not useful for weakening opponents, competitors, they don't care about suppression or even massive, grand scale genocide. But if its in the interest of the US establishment, you hear all that talk about international laws and what not, but only then. Like in Syria (against the pro-Iranian/Russian Alevite regime), in Yemen even the rebels and suppressed people can become "evil" (Huthis = Shia affiliated) or the Tigray in Ethiopia (they supported their "equal rights president of Ethiopia, even when he started "a genocide" (the US lose definition they used many times) on Tigray people. Or in Bahrain, undemocratic, brutal suppression of the Shia majority.

The list could go on for two pages at least, with many details about how the US being involved or just ignored, depending on its interests. The whole Ukrainian story being just blown up and brought out of context because the Biden administration wants to hurt Russia.

But Biden was at least reasonable enough to no try to escalate to the next level. Which makes me concerned about why the Biden/Hunter Biden story comes up now! The suppression of the truth prevented a 2nd term for Trump, which is what the establishement/deep state wanted, but now they are confrontational with Russia and while Biden did push the issue, he made his own red lines clear, which was a reasonable move. Now they probably just want to weaken him, for exerting even more pressure on the administration to act unreasonable, unaccountable, and escalate the conflict to the next level.

Its ridiculous, but just shows how people from the background can manipulate and control politicians in office. They can strengthen or weaken them, at will. So I'm not sure, on second thought, that this is all good news, that the truth about Biden came up. Because it might be played out the wrong way, namely to even push the issue of Ukraine further than even Biden would have on his own, which was bad enough already.
 
It is very sad, we have people that have enough money to buy crack,


while little children and the elderly have no food and are dying in a civil war. No one cares, or brings it up in the European union how to help, like Covid vaccines face masks, or stinger missiles etc.... Ukraine is a breadbasket and supplies much needed food for the Near East, perhaps president Biden can phone Saudi prince and get help for the starving ?


 
On the southwest front there was a successful counterattack.

Russians were nearly approaching Yuzhnoukrainsk, and by now they have been repelled back to the south of Nova Odesa.
 
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