Will Russia Attack Ukraine?

^^^
It would be nice if Germany leaves the EU and joins where it truly belongs - the Eurasian Economic Union... :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_Economic_Union

Or - alternatively - Poland can leave the EU and become the 51st state of the USA instead. We like America. ;)
 
Germany's conduct since the beginning of this conflict is pure comedy.

At first they refused to send weapons and agreed only to send helmets:

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukr...ter-criticism-not-sending-weapons-2022-1?IR=T

^^^
But the transport was delayed (deliberately?) and did not arrive before the war.

Then on 24 February Germans said to Ukrainians: "we are not sending these helmets because your country will fall within hours anyway".

After another day passed, and Ukraine didn't fall within hours, they finally sent.

Ukrainians were joking that they might as well send them some pillows instead:

https://sports.yahoo.com/5-000-helmets-germany-offered-175355794.html

=====

In general based on Germany's actions it looks like they are trying to pretend that they are pro-Ukraine, but secretely they are pro-Putin.

If this is true, Germany's attitude is a disgrace and the Germans are secretly Russia's lapdogs.
 
No matter how you riddle it's clear that Putin's agenda is ultra nationalistic. You sympathize with the thought of old Russian rights in parts of the Ukraine. I don't support such claims because if you do so this is going to be endless, because Poland and Austria, Hungary can do the same with parts Ukraine etc etc. Old revenge kind of agenda's resulting in nothing more than ethnocentric misery.

If Poland wanted to have a piece of Ukraine against the will of Ukrainians, we would have accepted Putin's 2014 proposal:

"Putin Offered Poland's Prime Minister The Chance To Join Forces And Partition Ukraine" (October 21, 2014):

https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-offered-to-partition-ukraine-with-poland-2014-10?IR=T

https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-partition-letter-idUSL5N0ML1LO20140324

Or even back in 2008:

"Putin Offered To Divide Ukraine With Poland. Putin made the proposal during PM Donald Tusk's visit to Moscow in 2008":

https://www.rferl.org/a/26647587.html
 
And what they really think is pretty close to what average Germans thought in the 1930s.

k even if that was the case it's probably not far away from what the average Pole thinks even today.
 
k even if that was the case it's probably not far away from what the average Pole thinks even today.

If it comes to what I think, I agree with these lines from a song by a Polish zionist musician Kelthuz:


That's how little Israel plays his part as David,
To not let no Goliath rampage here,
The only such country in the Middle East,
Where Jews, Arabs and Druze live together in peace,
A pearl among the sea of barbarism,
A model to follow for the Polish Hussars!



^^^
Of course, in our case:

David = Ukraine and other states between Russia and Germany
Goliath = currently Russia (and Germany as a potential threat)

A model to follow for the Polish Hussars - indeed there are many things we can learn from Israel.

For instance, I like the Israeli approach to compulsory military service: women also have to serve.
 
^^^
Benefits of military service also for women? There are many - Israeli Jews (I'm talking specifically about Jews - not all citizens) currently once again have above replacement fertility rates - above 2.1 kids per woman. This rise of fertility has been attributed to compulsory military service for women - female soldiers get educated about the importance of motherhood for the nation's future. Women also become more patriotic after serving in the army. Whereas in Europe, it has been observed that there is a big gap in patriotism between men and women. Also in Poland this is the case - women much more often than men vote for very left-wing and unpatriotic parties. In Israel that's not the case:

 
My comment about recent talks in Istanbul:

It is good that Russians agreed to retreat, but...

Ukrainians are being too soft on the Russians.

Now they should counterattack even harder, not negotiate.

They can win this on the battlefield, without any talks...
 
My comment about recent talks in Istanbul:
It is good that Russians agreed to retreat, but...
Ukrainians are being too soft on the Russians.
Now they should counterattack even harder, not negotiate.
They can win this on the battlefield, without any talks...

^^^
What Ukrainians need now is a madman like Oddball, who will attack, attack, attack (!!!) even against orders:



 
I think I wrote it before (if not here then on another fourm), but let me repeat:

I think that invading a country as large as Ukraine with less than 1 million troops is idiocy.

And it turns out true. Russians forces were too small, and they became too overstretched.
 
^^^
Benefits of military service also for women? There are many - Israeli Jews (I'm talking specifically about Jews - not all citizens) currently once again have above replacement fertility rates - above 2.1 kids per woman. This rise of fertility has been attributed to compulsory military service for women - female soldiers get educated about the importance of motherhood for the nation's future. Women also become more patriotic after serving in the army. Whereas in Europe, it has been observed that there is a big gap in patriotism between men and women. Also in Poland this is the case - women much more often than men vote for very left-wing and unpatriotic parties. In Israel that's not the case:


^^^
Israel has achieved the above replacement level thanks to compulsory military service for women, which changed their mentality.

Here is a good article about it, I'm posting Google translation to English:

"The demographic success of Jews in Israel, i.e. the secret lies in the minds of women":

https://wpolityce-pl.translate.goog...wi-sekret?_x_tr_sl=pl&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pl

"(...) Nobody will force women to bear children today. They themselves must want to be mothers with many children, which in today's world - focused on consumption, self-realization and entertainment - is rather rare.

In Israel, it was successful. Families with many children, which in the 1970s were limited only to orthodox Jewish communities, are now becoming a cultural norm again. The religious premises did not turn out to be decisive, because the followers of Orthodox Judaism constitute only a dozen or so percent of the Jewish population, and the society of Israel is one of the most secularized in the world. However, the issue of national consciousness turned out to be crucial.

Something forces Israeli women to give up the offers of an easy, light and pleasant life offered by today's world, and choose childbirth, upbringing, loss of free time, restriction of professional opportunities, retardation or end of career, etc. Why Jewish women in Israel make different choices life than their peers in Western countries? (Of course, this does not apply to all Israeli women, but to a large enough number of them to change the demographic trend in the country.)


It may sound pathetic, but it is true. They are aware that they are responsible for the fate of the nation, that the future of Israel rests on them, that if they do not have children, Adolf Hitler will achieve his victory from beyond the grave - the Jewish nation will cease to exist. It was instilled in them in school and after-school classes, but compulsory military service, which for women lasts two years, was decisive.


There they see that their nation is in a state of constant war; they feel an existential threat to their community; recognize that independence is not given once and for all; they realize how thin a hair hangs on their nation's future; they realize how important the attitude of each of them is in the post entrusted to it. During the action, they experience that the life of one depends on the behavior of the other. They experience hardships, nuisance and humiliation, but they know it makes sense. They learn duty and sacrifice for their relatives and for the whole community. They know that they are part of one great collective organism for which they also feel responsible.


In this situation, the selfish refusal to have children appears as a denial of all their service, abandonment of the post, betrayal of the nation. Conversely, the birth and upbringing of children gives life an internal coherence and a sense of meaning.


The case of Israel is important in the context of nations undergoing a demographic collapse and threatened with being dominated by more numerous neighbors. (...)"
 
The view that the Brazil’s mainstream press has regarding the negotiations in Turkey is that Putin and Zelensky are hiding goals to try to claim victory.

Regarding Ukraine's position, the mainstream press said the following:

“Kiev also hides its intentions, as might be expected. One minute Zelensky calls for arms and support in virtual visits to parliaments around the world, at another he gives sober interviews saying he can recognize the reality in Donbass and accept the neutrality demanded by Moscow.

Again, it's a play on words: with the degree of territorial conflict it has with Russia, Ukraine would never be part of NATO unless the Brussels’ team wanted to contract World War III. But what neutrality is Zelensky talking about?

George Friedman of US consultancy Geopolitical Features is betting that Zelensky only has the option of adopting the Swedish model, which is not formally NATO but has been on the right side of the West-Russia dispute since the Cold War. A central point is vague request made by third-party security guarantees to accept surrender without adoption that name.”
 
Data below is from the Hungarian Academy of Sciences so these are neither pro-Ukrainian nor pro-Russian figures:

Ukraine ethnic structure over time, as you can see Lviv Oblast and Ternopil Oblast were half Polish before WW2:

As you can also see only Crimea has had ethnic Russian majority in any given time period 1926-31/59/89/2001:

4aNYt9Z.png


Ukraine religious structure (the decline of Roman Catholics from 6% to 1% was due to removal of most Poles):

7jLT8Hf.png
 
^^^ Also this table:

nvED9i4.png


A Polish author gives slightly different numbers:

hq3wOe3.png
 
^^^
Check how the number of Russians jumped from 3 million before WW2 to 7 million after WW2.

It was due to immigration of Russians, just like similar increase of Russians in the Baltic States.
 
They were better with Pilsudski than before or after. The main problem was that in both countries a political change happened: Hitler in Germany, Pilsudski dying in Poland. If either wouldn't have happened, they might have come to terms.

But even Pilsudski never intended to have an alliance with Germany and to conquer the world allied with Germany.

One of famous Pilsudski quotes (which is considered as Pilsudski's "political testament" for his successors) was this:

"Balansujcie pomiędzy Rosją i Niemcami tak długo jak długo się da, a gdy już się nie da dłużej, podpalcie świat."

In English:

"Balance between Russia and Germany as long as you can, and when you no longer can, set the world on fire."

^^^
And they did just what Pilsudski adviced. So beware:

451px-Marshal_of_Poland_J%C3%B3zef_Pi%C5%82sudski._Born_in_1867_and_died_in_1935_at_the_age_of_67._%2846112331415%29.jpg


 
^^^
I personally think, that Poland benefited from both of the 20th century world wars.

But maybe I'm a bit biased here, because I'm also kinda a "product of World War II".

I mean, the 1st wife of my ancestor was murdered in Auschwitz. He remarried after WW2, and I'm descended from his 2nd wife.

So I would not be in the world, if WW2 never happened and 1st wife was not killed.

Because of this personal experience I know that world wars can "create new life" too.
 
^^^
I personally think, that Poland benefited from both of the 20th century world wars.

But maybe I'm a bit biased here, because I'm also kinda a "product of World War II".

I mean, the 1st wife of my ancestor was murdered in Auschwitz. He remarried after WW2, and I'm descended from his 2nd wife.

So I would not be in the world, if WW2 never happened and 1st wife was not killed.

Because of this personal experience I know that world wars can "create new life" too.

If that last scenario (it's from Princeton) is getting reality no new life will be created just destruction.....

"Balance between Russia and Germany as long as you can, and when you no longer can, set the world on fire."

For god sake leave that 20th century behind!

Poland already made a choice by joining EU and NATO, so is already joining Germany.....

Germany now is not Germany from 100 years ago, then it was a embryonal democracy in Weimar times, but with still an anti-democratic kind of society with Junkkers, big industrials, so partly agrarian (especially in Prussia) and partly industrial (especially in Rurh area). The liberal democratic intelligentsia, middle class and the social democratic party were the bearer of Weimar but the extremes (NSDAP/KPD) teared it apart. Withwith the wink of the Junkerstand (see Von Hindenburg) Hitler came into power.

The circumstance are completely changed Germany is still partly industrial but has also a big service economy. The role of the Junkers is passé. And let's not forget especially West-Germany was modelled by the US (federal system etc) and allies. They were supposed to be pacifistic. So it became an economic giant and a political dwarf. I guess that politicians like Merkel and Scholz, if your like their policies or not, but they are democratic and responsible. Germany is now crucial in Europe when it comes to counter act the autocratic influences from Russia. Ok we will never now what the future wil bring but we now, if you like it or not, Germany is (with France) a crucial key player in a new Europe that stands firm against an autocratic cold wind from the Kremlin/Siberia.....
 
^^^ Weimar Republic was very hostile against Poland too.

There was a Cold War between Germany and Poland in 1925-1933:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German–Polish_customs_war

"The German - Polish customs war was a political and economic conflict between the Second Polish Republic and the Weimar Republic, which began in June 1925 (shortly after the death of German president Friedrich Ebert from SPD) and ended officially in March 1934.[1] The conflict began when Poland's status expired as one of the Entente's most favoured nations in trade with Germany.[note 1] Berlin then decided to raise customs duty, which primarily affected the Polish coal industry, Poland's main export to Germany. Germany's purpose in the war was to cause a breakdown of Poland's economy and gain political concessions.[1] They included revanchist claims to Polish territories.[3]"

^^^
When Hitler came to power his policies were initially much more Polish-friendly than Weimar's policies...
 
^^^ Weimar Republic was very hostile against Poland too.


There was a Cold War between Germany and Poland in 1925-1933:


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German–Polish_customs_war


"The German - Polish customs war was a political and economic conflict between the Second Polish Republic and the Weimar Republic, which began in June 1925 (shortly after the death of German president Friedrich Ebert from SPD) and ended officially in March 1934.[1] The conflict began when Poland's status expired as one of the Entente's most favoured nations in trade with Germany.[note 1] Berlin then decided to raise customs duty, which primarily affected the Polish coal industry, Poland's main export to Germany. Germany's purpose in the war was to cause a breakdown of Poland's economy and gain political concessions.[1] They included revanchist claims to Polish territories.[3]"


^^^
When Hitler came to power his policies were initially much more Polish-friendly than Weimar's policies...


^^^
There is a Polish saying dating back to the 1600s or even older. It was included in a poem by Waclaw Potocki:


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wacław_Potocki


His poem in Polish:


"Nigdy w szczerej nie żyli Polak z Niemcem zgodzie,
Polaka pycha, Niemca wolność bodzie.
Stąd przypowieści miejsce, że p?ki świat światem,
Nie będzie nigdy Niemiec Polakowi bratem."


English translation:


"Poles and Germans never lived in an honest harmony,
Poles hate conceit, Germans hate freedom.
Hence a proverb exists, that until the world is the world,
A German will never be a Pole's brother."
 

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