Malaparte
Regular Member
- Messages
- 256
- Reaction score
- 50
- Points
- 28
- Ethnic group
- Italian, English, Irish
- Y-DNA haplogroup
- G2a-Z1903>>PF6863
- mtDNA haplogroup
- HV16
First of all the Russian have a simplistic economy the BBP is that of the much much smaller Benelux. 60% depend on rude products like oil and gas. 84% of the gas goes to Europe.
I would be extremely skeptical about any and all GNP numbers, both we regard to the GNP of the US (far overstates the real size & dynamism of the economy) and with regard to Russia (if nothing else, they get a lot more bang for their military-spending buck than other countries)
Ok that means a certain dependence on Russia for oil and gas, especially in countries like Germany. But for the short term the winter is over and so is the demand for oil and gas. We will have to look for alternatives more quickly. The USA has already increased LNG production, Qatar also seems to be willing to supply extra.
A serious energy for Europe is a nuclear one. Europeans (and Americans) need to get over their oh-so-virtuous green energy clap trap and take real steps to promote energy independence, to the extent possible. Europe will never be energy self-sufficient, but if they had nuclear capacity, they would be in much better shape today.
But the fundamental fact, after the crisis has passed, is that the best source of oil & gas for Germany is Russia.
As the East Mediterranean comes on line, the oil fields near Cyprus, this might prove a very good source for the Mediterranean countries. However, all of this is to assume that Russia won't compete against the USA in the East Mediterranean. Certainly the Russians have forged a nice relationship with Syria.
The downside is that the income of the Russians may soon disappear. When the income from oil and gas largely disappears, they have relatively little, the question is whether the Chinese will take over 100%.But they've been smart, they have a huge war chest.
Looks like India will also be buying plenty of Russian gas and potash. Trade conducted in rupee's. See link I just posted above.
And about a choice between the Russians and the Americans. I even consider it an insult to think that the Europeans would choose the Russians. We share with the Americans a preference for liberal democracy and not for tyranny.
I do not mean this as an insult. My loyalty is to true Europeans and true Americans. However, when the dust settles, it will be clear to all that this entire debacle was cynically motivated by the US foreign policy elite to (1) push Russia out of Europe and (2) keep Germany down. The same grand objectives that US has had since 1945, but now much more clumsily and ineptly executed than ever before.
Right now, through sheer emotion, and the "soft power" of the Western media apparatus, which paints Russia as the perpetual bogeyman, the US has succeeded in separating Europe from Russia. But this separation will not last for long. The cynical policy of the US in the Ukraine will backfire.
There are exceptions, however, the authoritarian populism in Europe unanimously opts for Putin's applause machine. That is also the case in the US. That becomes the real contradiction in the west, the authoritarian populists in Europe and the US form Putin's fifth column!
Wonderful. Anybody who questions the wisdom of our leaders' actions is a traitor and fifth columnist. And yet I'm the authoritarian!! Maybe you should go pose for a photo with your idol Trudeau.