Free and independent Kurdistan is coming soon.

Indeed, smaller countries are always vulnerable, that's why Bush was trying to leave Iraq intact, as a counter balance to Iran in the region. Though leaving Iraq intact made a strategic sense, it split in 3 parts anyway, after 10 messy years of trying to hold it together. The natural ethnic and religious differences (natural forcings) turned to be too much to resist.

The better way was to split it in 3, with quarantining protection over them of some coalition of countries, or even just US, against Iranian aggression. The way Kuwait was protected during Desert Storm. Iran was fighting Iraq for 10 with inconclusive ending to the war, coalition defeated Saddam in a week. Iran never was in a position to attack anyone who would have a guaranty of coalition protection. They were not crazy like Saddam, they would never dare.

The Shia part of Iraq, no mater what, would always have pro Iranian tendencies based on same religion. The Sunni country, having some peace and own government, possibly would resist IS forces. In current circumstances they let the IS to encroach into Iraq, as an ally against Shia persecution. Having their own country they wouldn't need IS for support, and maybe fighting them as foreign invaders. Things could have been different. Kurds by now should have been more organized giving them own country and shielded against corruption of Iraqi government.

Surly it was a very tough decision to split it and perhaps have to move some population around. It needed guts, combined with much more work at the beginning, and lots of political motivation. Bush had guts, but unfortunately lots of naive romanticism too. Giving Iraq democracy was supposed to solve all the problems.

Perhaps I would call it "idealism", but I take your point.
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It's a not uncommon affliction among American presidents. Wilson is a good case study both of such presidential (and American) idealism and of the dangers inherent in assuming that if you give people of a certain ethnicity (however that's defined) their own nation, they'll make good use of their freedom, and there will be peace and stability in the region. Look at how well the League of Nations turned out, or look at what happened in the Balkans since World War I and the craze for "self-determination".

As for a coalition force to maintain "order" in Iraq and to offset Iranian hegemony, at the time the local "players" wanted no part of it, although they seem to be having second thoughts now. Such coalitions are also usually a mirage, in my opinion. Most of the European powers are always long on talk and short on money and manpower. The Gulf States are always playing a double game. There's also the fact that no matter what foreigners may think, there's no appetite among most Americans for acting as the world's policeman for long periods of time. There is no understanding of the strong streak of isolationism in American history, a desire for isolation from the ethnic and religious conflicts of the "old world" which is alive and well in American life and politics.

More and more I am thinking that it's really only countries that are the product of what used to be called "Western Civilization", countries that were part of the Renaissance and the Enlightenment, who are capable of true self government and a liberal (in the classical sense) society that prizes personal liberty. Or is that Euro-centric of me?
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Perhaps I would call it "idealism", but I take your point.
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It's a not uncommon affliction among American presidents. Wilson is a good case study both of such presidential (and American) idealism and of the dangers inherent in assuming that if you give people of a certain ethnicity (however that's defined) their own nation, they'll make good use of their freedom, and there will be peace and stability in the region. Look at how well the League of Nations turned out, or look at what happened in the Balkans since World War I and the craze for "self-determination".
Balkans, the former Yugoslavia and civil war, is a prime example, that in hard times the separation of ethnicity and religions is a good thing to do. When regimes of Soviet Block collapsed there were no domestic wars in Poland, East Germany, Hungary, Check republic. These countries had monolithic populations, at least great majority of one ethnicity, language and one religion. A present from Stalin's ethnic engineering.
However Yugoslavia was a multi-ethnic construct. It was held together by Tito and communist party dictatorship. Once the overlord was gone the hell broke loose. Yugoslavia broke into 3 major parts with 3 distinct religions; Catholic Croats, Muslim Bosniaks, and Orthodox Serbs. The rest of the story is well known. Genetically and linguistically they are like brothers, but nobody seamed to care about this back then.

Actually, on this base of Balkan recent history, I recognized the need of splitting Iraq shortly after Bush invasion, and learning few details about composition of Iraq's population.



As for a coalition force to maintain "order" in Iraq and to offset Iranian hegemony, at the time the local "players" wanted no part of it, although they seem to be having second thoughts now. Such coalitions are also usually a mirage, in my opinion. Most of the European powers are always long on talk and short on money and manpower. The Gulf States are always playing a double game. There's also the fact that no matter what foreigners may think, there's no appetite among most Americans for acting as the world's policeman for long periods of time. There is no understanding of the strong streak of isolationism in American history, a desire for isolation from the ethnic and religious conflicts of the "old world" which is alive and well in American life and politics.
Of course things are not very certain with promises and coalitions. In this case for smaller countries it is important to belong to more than one coalition, union or military pacts. I'm not sure, but could it be possible for these small Near Easter countries to join NATO?

More and more I am thinking that it's really only countries that are the product of what used to be called "Western Civilization", countries that were part of the Renaissance and the Enlightenment, who are capable of true self government and a liberal (in the classical sense) society that prizes personal liberty. Or is that Euro-centric of me?
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I'm sure it is not only European thing, and giving the right circumstances all countries will be democratic and society free and equal. As I mentioned in other threads, this is are basic Hunter Gatherer instinct, the natural longings of human kind. We are coming back the full circle.
However, building a democratic free country is a long process. It is more like a process of liberalization, escaping and breaking the long traditions of hegemony, monarchy, old power circles, religions supporting old order, patriarchal traditions, etc. It took Europe pretty much a half of millennium. From Renaissance, laying down ideas of modern society, to end of 20th century, when finally the democracy and freedoms for all were locked in stable countries. This after a huge straggle with tyrants, hyper nationalism, racism and communism of First, Second and Cold Wars. Steady economic growth which enriched middle class and even the poor, gave a helping hand too. Mind you that this process is still unfinished in some countries of Eastern Europe with Russia leading the pack.

For that reason, when I look at Near East, I can see the process of freedom and democratization starting now. It was a naive to expect good results immediately, but I don't think it will take them 500 years to achieve that. It will be a fast forward development thanks to the helping West, education, investments and faster growth. I would say two generation, 50 years, and things will stabilize for them too.
 
What are you guys making out off situation in Yemen? Is it, as Saudi Arabia says, fight against Iran meddling in internal affairs of Yemen? Or Saudis invented this conspiracy to freely support Sunnis in fight against Shia in Yemen?

Are we for a great Arab religious war in Middle East?
It will depend on big players, if they keep their cool and only fight by their proxies, or they will go to war full blast against each other.

What a mess!
One positive is that the bigger the mess, the easier it is for Kurds to separate.

Yemen_Ethno_Religious_summary_lg.png
 
Oh thanks god, "finaly" he got banned.
He may have been racist, but Kurdistan should be independent, if all the other 'independence' movements are to make sense.
 
Kurds deserve an independent state.
Iraqi Kurdistan is de facto independent, they need just to have a de jure recognition and mark the borders. Armenia recently has started diplomatic relations wit Iraqi Kurdistan. So I hope we will have a direct fly from Yerevan to Erbil.
Syrian Kurdistan is also on the road to independence. Will they join Erbil or they will decide to be another state the time will show.

The biggest problem is in Turkey. Turkish nationalism is strong. If You read some turkish history books You will think that You are in a parallel universe. Turks can do everything if they feel that they are loosing control. 100 years ago Turkish government was in the same situation and they didn't hesitate to commit a full scale genocide of Armenians and other religious minorities.
 
If You read some turkish history books You will think that You are in a parallel universe.

I have heard some theories about that, and I can confirm.
I don't know, is this more bizzare than terrify...
 
He may have been racist, but Kurdistan should be independent, if all the other 'independence' movements are to make sense.

Did i say something against that? I was just wondering how forum admins can have a member like this at forum. I mean look at this comments he made..

Kurds deserve an independent state.
Iraqi Kurdistan is de facto independent, they need just to have a de jure recognition and mark the borders. Armenia recently has started diplomatic relations wit Iraqi Kurdistan. So I hope we will have a direct fly from Yerevan to Erbil.
Syrian Kurdistan is also on the road to independence. Will they join Erbil or they will decide to be another state the time will show.

The biggest problem is in Turkey. Turkish nationalism is strong. If You read some turkish history books You will think that You are in a parallel universe. Turks can do everything if they feel that they are loosing control. 100 years ago Turkish government was in the same situation and they didn't hesitate to commit a full scale genocide of Armenians and other religious minorities.

Do you know how big is Kuridstan they want? All East Turkey, Iran's north,Syria's north and Iraq's north. Does it make sense? I hope they gain their independence but not at Turkey. Sorry. Never gonna happen.

I never take serious some Armenian's though about Turkey. I know he will talk abot just genocide and i don't believe they are taking news about Turkey with looking neutral. There is a difference between history books and some mans thoughs about history. Like nationalism isn't live at your countries...

Probably you are talking about Ataturk's sentences like "If Turks look their history, they will gain power in theirselves to make better, bigger things" Don't worry, its not about world domination. ;)
 
I hope they gain their independence but not at Turkey. Sorry. Never gonna happen.

Sorry Eblack, but this is nearly oxymoron, what you just said... :rolleyes:

It is something like: I hope Uygurs gain their independance but not at China. Sorry. Never gonna happen. :LOL:

On other words: I want them to be an independant nation, but I'll don't allow them.

Does it make any sense to you? :unsure:
 
Didn't realize Goga was banned.

I kinda feel sorry for Goga. He was around for long time. But he couldn't control himself and had to see this coming.
 
Sorry Eblack, but this is nearly oxymoron, what you just said... :rolleyes:

It is something like: I hope Uygurs gain their independance but not at China. Sorry. Never gonna happen. :LOL:

On other words: I want them to be an independant nation, but I'll don't allow them.

Does it make any sense to you? :unsure:

Not all Kurds at Turkey wants to live at their holy nations with "independence". I think not even more than half even.
 
Kurds deserve an independent state.
Iraqi Kurdistan is de facto independent, they need just to have a de jure recognition and mark the borders. Armenia recently has started diplomatic relations wit Iraqi Kurdistan. So I hope we will have a direct fly from Yerevan to Erbil.
Syrian Kurdistan is also on the road to independence. Will they join Erbil or they will decide to be another state the time will show.

The biggest problem is in Turkey. Turkish nationalism is strong. If You read some turkish history books You will think that You are in a parallel universe. Turks can do everything if they feel that they are loosing control. 100 years ago Turkish government was in the same situation and they didn't hesitate to commit a full scale genocide of Armenians and other religious minorities.

Turks claim Homer these days
 
Do you know how big is Kuridstan they want? All East Turkey, Iran's north,Syria's north and Iraq's north. Does it make sense? I hope they gain their independence but not at Turkey. Sorry. Never gonna happen.
Never is a strong statement. What if IS/Daesh gains strength in Turkey and domestic war breaks out, like in Syria or Yemen? It is not my wish for it to happen, only a physical possibility in reality of the region.
 
Didn't realize Goga was banned.

I kinda feel sorry for Goga. He was around for long time. But he couldn't control himself and had to see this coming.
IIRC, it is 3 months ban. He seams never do enough for a total one.
 
Never is a strong statement. What if IS/Daesh gains strength in Turkey and domestic war breaks out, like in Syria or Yemen? It is not my wish for it to happen, only a physical possibility in reality of the region.

Of course. We never know whats gonna happen next. I should fix like not gonna happen anytime soon. But i really don't think there will be "domectiic war" at Turkey like Syria or Yemen. People usualy underestimate Turkey or overestimate. Central authority is strong at Turkey. It's not gonna chance because some Kurds wants to be free now(im not saying at offensive way) . Maybe 100 years later when Turk population, just easily taken over by Kurdish population. It wouldn't be because of ISIS :)
 
Do you know how big is Kuridstan they want? All East Turkey, Iran's north,Syria's north and Iraq's north. Does it make sense? I hope they gain their independence but not at Turkey. Sorry. Never gonna happen.

I never take serious some Armenian's though about Turkey. I know he will talk abot just genocide and i don't believe they are taking news about Turkey with looking neutral.

I am not neutral toward Turkey ( why should I be? ) I am realistic about Turkey.
Turkey has no any positive long term agenda in this region. Turkey has no ability to resolve any problem he just can frozen the problems, or create new problems. Even Iran being an Islamic state acted more responsibly about his demographic situation. Compare just the fertility rates of Iran and Turkey.
Turks criticize China but look there is Autonomous region of Uyghurs in China. Is there any Kurdish or Armenian autonomous region in Turkey? Non. Why Russia, Germany, Great Britain and many other states can have federative structure but not Turkey?

You are saying that Turkey is a stable state. But this is a illusion. Turkey was stable because USA dominated the Middle East and it was in USA interests to have stable region. Now that Obama declared that USA alone cannot anymore stabilize World and other nations should take responsibility we see how incapable are most of states in Middle East. And the one of biggest trouble maker is the Turkey in the region.

You don't need to wait 100 years . Just in the coming years You will see that Turkishness as ideology is not working as one must expect. All this genetic studies. All new information about the past will erode any basis for it, and more Kurds, more islamicized Armenians, Alevis, Zazakis will ask questions. So what's next? Is there an answer? I guess no.

Well Erdogan has an answer. More islamism, more burkas, more fancy theories about finding America before Columbus.
 
I am not neutral toward Turkey ( why should I be? ) I am realistic about Turkey.
Turkey has no any positive long term agenda in this region. Turkey has no ability to resolve any problem he just can frozen the problems, or create new problems. Even Iran being an Islamic state acted more responsibly about his demographic situation. Compare just the fertility rates of Iran and Turkey.
Turks criticize China but look there is Autonomous region of Uyghurs in China. Is there any Kurdish or Armenian autonomous region in Turkey? Non. Why Russia, Germany, Great Britain and many other states can have federative structure but not Turkey?

You are saying that Turkey is a stable state. But this is a illusion. Turkey was stable because USA dominated the Middle East and it was in USA interests to have stable region. Now that Obama declared that USA alone cannot anymore stabilize World and other nations should take responsibility we see how incapable are most of states in Middle East. And the one of biggest trouble maker is the Turkey in the region.


I don't remember i said something to make you write this.
 

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