A genetic history of the Balkans from Roman frontier to Slavic migrations

My Ydna is pretty static very shallow depth, high in the R1b hierarchy, how much new info has accumulated in my YDNA since 5000+years ago? Meanwhile new genetic info has accumulated from both the male and female ancestors over 250 generations. For example my mother's side of the family has a mutation in the BRCA1 gene that is only found among the Eastern Dutch/Western Germans in the border area. Interesting, right? When did that mutation enter my mother's genetic inheritance? How did an Eastern Dutch female find itself in Thrace or the Balkans?

Also think about it. Let's say that a Slav ancestor entered Thrace in 600 AD. For arguments sake, let's assume that no further Slavic input entered my ancestral stream. My Y-DNA would be some subclade of I2a-Din for example. This Slav ancestor's autosomal contribution will disappear after 10 generations according to you. So am I a Slav or not? According to my Y-DNA I am but the genetic autosomal has been diluted to extinction.
Precisely.
 
R1a is estimated to have mutated 25,000 years ago. Assuming one reproduces on average every 25 years that's 1000 generations.
Y chr. mutation counts every 30-60 years, wtf are you on about.

Do you have a concept of how y-dna clade branching works?
 
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Y chr. mutates every 30-60 years, wtf are you on about.

Do you have a concept of how y-dna clade branching works?
No that's how you compute TRMCA if your subclade has a lot of mutations. There are subclades that don't mutate that often. Kinda throws the TRMCA calculations off kilter.
 
Wall of text but no answer still.

I will give you a hint because it's bad form to make fun of you.

You get 50 percent of your autosomes from your parent, 25 from your grandparent, 12.5 from your great grandparent, 6.25 from your great-great grandparent, now take this division to your 11th ancestor and tell me how much of their DNA you carry.

You don't understand fstats and what they mean, you just discovered your g25 child's play and you think you have a clue on archaeogenetics. Like I said, every so often there's a greek like you, high on copium, until they eventually get red-pilled on the genetic truth and leave with disappointment until we get the next one.

Modern Greeks don't have good continuity with BA/IA in terms of haplos, which is the only defining proof of genealogy, everything else is statistical inference. On PCA, South Italians and Jews are actually much closer to ancient Greeks.

You have Dacian E-V13, and Slavic I2a-din and R1a clade being a very big chunk of modern greek distribution, this is the historical reality and no matter how much you cope you can't change it, you can only continue to embarrass yourself and the rest of us who unfortunately have become a standing joke on forums, because of your antics.



View attachment 14650
One wonders why did those E-V13 migrants stop in Deep Mani, costal parts of Peloponnese and especially in Crete? They were loving the genetic papers coming in 2010s but now they don't like them anymore.

I don't give two bananas if modern Greeks are 99% descended from old Greeks or only 1% but it needs to be said unless there was a founder effect among those people there is no other explanation that the majority of the male population that lived before the death of Alexander has been gradually replaced.

I don't know if northerns had this halpogroup or no.
 
Posting the G25 coordinates of Mycenaeans for Skourtanioti et al 2023 for any of those interested
I ran the samples. For most of them closer pops are South Italians and Aegean islanders/Maniots but still have a great distance to them similarly to the older samples.

There are indeed some samples that interestingly have higher Steppe and plot similarly to south Thracians, they are closer to central Italians which makes them more western shifted. And this is another important issue, the Anatolian admixture. Modern Greeks are not just classic Greeks + extra Steppe and this is what becomes from these samples as well.

I can't see any significant change to what we already knew and expected here.

Do I miss anything?

About haplogroups you mentioned at the other post, if we are talking about one individual it just shows a tiny part of the ancestry. However if we talk about a population and we want to study the population the haplogroups of the whole population indicate the ancestry. If we know all the yDNA clades we know all the paternal ancestry.

So it is not enough to just show some extra Steppe really exists, we need the source of the Steppe and haplogroups help a lot here.
 
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I ran the samples. For most of them closer pops are South Italians and Aegean islanders/Maniots but still have a great distance to them similarly to the older samples.

There are indeed some samples that interestingly have higher Steppe and plot similarly to south Thracians, they are closer to central Italians which makes them more western shifted. And this is another important issue, the Anatolian admixture. Modern Greeks are not just classic Greeks + extra Steppe and this is what becomes from these samples as well.

I can't see any significant change to what we already knew and expected here.

Do I miss anything?

About haplogroups you mentioned at the other post, if we are talking about one individual it just shows a tiny part of the ancestry. However if we talk about a population and we want to study the population the haplogroups of the whole population indicate the ancestry. If we know all the yDNA clades we know all the paternal ancestry.

So it is not enough to just show some extra Steppe really exists, we need the source of the Steppe and haplogroups help a lot here.
The samples mostly overlap southern Greeks & Italians yes, because the location taken from is in fact southern Greece. This shouldn't be surprising. The fact that there is a non negligible amount of modern like peloponnesian individuals is a pretty significant change compared to prior samples. Also, another significant change is that we now see Mycenaean greeks overlapping the islander profiles/S. Italians in significant quantity, where as our prior samples were similar but not exactly overlapping.

In short what we see is that at least in southern greece there was an increasing amount of steppe and anatolian ancestry being absorbed, meaning the Greek genetic profile during this era was not static but shifting. By the LBA we see a lot of overlap with moderns (mostly southern moderns but some mainlanders too). I see no reason as to why contributions from any of these individuals, including those northern shifted ones should be discounted quite frankly. You are only going to see more of this steppe ancestry as we get more geographically northern samples.

On the topic of haplogroups, the problem with treating them as some sort of ethnic identifier is that they have been shown time and time again to be anything but that. Any slight male offspring reproductive bias can and has drastically modified the haplogroup makeup of a population over time, even when it's clear that there has been little to no population turnover. There are subsaharan african ethnic groups surrounding lake chad which are dominated by haplogroup R1b but have 0 relation to european populations autosomally. Similarly haplogroups in populations such as bardonecchia do not show a close match with modern northern Italian haplogroups despite their autosomal profile clearly showing an incredibly tight fit. We are almost certainly going to see a similar case with the greeks in which the modern autosomal profiles are revealed to be already present in abundance by the iron or hellenistic age but the haplogroups show shifts over time. I do not buy this type of thinking as a legitimate argument against population continuity. If we are to assume significant slavic introgression into greece by roughly 700 AD then we should instead see no modern greek mainlander profiles up until the slavic migrations, but that already does not appear to be the case. The only question remaining currently is how abundent these mainlander type profiles were by the Roman era in all of mainland greece. Only new samples will provide this info definitively, but Skourtanioti does give hints of what is to come.
 
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im a eastern deep maniot supposed e-v13 from autosomal, did y111 swab test today mailing it in. only a quarter greek but great grandpas family was in mountain town in deep mani. interested to see if i can get any recent subclades
 
im a eastern deep maniot supposed e-v13 from autosomal, did y111 swab test today mailing it in. only a quarter greek but great grandpas family was in mountain town in deep mani. interested to see if i can get any recent subclades

Let us know about your deepclade. Our first assumption is that E-V13 should have been present earliest LBA/EIA transition in Greece accompanied with archaeological changes. To be checked on the assumption on upcoming studies.
 
No that's how you compute TRMCA if your subclade has a lot of mutations. There are subclades that don't mutate that often. Kinda throws the TRMCA calculations off kilter.

That is the dumbest thing I've heard so far.

Which 'subclades' don't mutate that often.

Stop arguing about things you are obviously clueless about.
 
The samples mostly overlap southern Greeks & Italians yes, because the location taken from is in fact southern Greece. This shouldn't be surprising. The fact that there is a non negligible amount of modern like peloponnesian individuals is a pretty significant change compared to prior samples. Also, another significant change is that we now see Mycenaean greeks overlapping the islander profiles/S. Italians in significant quantity, where as our prior samples were similar but not exactly overlapping.

In short what we see is that at least in southern greece there was an increasing amount of steppe and anatolian ancestry being absorbed, meaning the Greek genetic profile during this era was not static but shifting. By the LBA we see a lot of overlap with moderns (mostly southern moderns but some mainlanders too). I see no reason as to why contributions from any of these individuals, including those northern shifted ones should be discounted quite frankly. You are only going to see more of this steppe ancestry as we get more geographically northern samples.

On the topic of haplogroups, the problem with treating them as some sort of ethnic identifier is that they have been shown time and time again to be anything but that. Any slight male offspring reproductive bias can and has drastically modified the haplogroup makeup of a population over time, even when it's clear that there has been little to no population turnover. There are subsaharan african ethnic groups surrounding lake chad which are dominated by haplogroup R1b but have 0 relation to european populations autosomally. Similarly haplogroups in populations such as bardonecchia do not show a close match with modern northern Italian haplogroups despite their autosomal profile clearly showing an incredibly tight fit. We are almost certainly going to see a similar case with the greeks in which the modern autosomal profiles are revealed to be already present in abundance by the iron or hellenistic age but the haplogroups show shifts over time. I do not buy this type of thinking as a legitimate argument against population continuity. If we are to assume significant slavic introgression into greece by roughly 700 AD then we should instead see no modern greek mainlander profiles up until the slavic migrations, but that already does not appear to be the case. The only question remaining currently is how abundent these mainlander type profiles were by the Roman era in all of mainland greece. Only new samples will provide this info definitively, but Skourtanioti does give hints of what is to come.
These samples do not change what we already knew.

There are some more northern shifted, as I mentioned before, plotting somewhat close to modern Central Italians and more interestingly (in my opinion) some plotting close to ancient Western Anatolians. There are also samples with the profile of Lazaridis Mycenaeans, which has also been found in post-Mycenaean Peloponnese and early IA Sterea Ellada.

This heterogeneity is interesting but does not change anything dramatically. All these profiles probably coexisted which leads to an average for the area profile not very different to Lazaridis Mycenaeans.

Modern Greeks are still modelled as LBA/EIA Greeks (even taking the most northern shifted)+ extra Steppe + ancient Anatolian.

It is difficult to me to believe that this extra Steppe does not come from an ancient Balkan and Slavic source in a population with significant frequencies of E-V13, J2b-L283, R1a-Z283 and I2 din.
 
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im a eastern deep maniot supposed e-v13 from autosomal, did y111 swab test today mailing it in. only a quarter greek but great grandpas family was in mountain town in deep mani. interested to see if i can get any recent subclades
Hey buddy, I am from Deep Mani too (J2a). Which village are you from?
 
So I made an average including the LBA Skourtanioti samples. They plot between the Mycenaeans and EIA Greek samples we already had and south Thracians. So nothing unexpected here. Pretty much the typical Hellenic results.

LBA_GR_Skourtanioti,0.108301511,0.156802043,-0.003891532,-0.057363426,0.024606766,-0.024008404,-0.003555064,-0.003387723,0.008764043,0.043135638,0.00394566,0.009087745,-0.015524,-0.00151383,-0.019364681,-0.008488489,0.008621979,9.43404E-05,0.007771894,-0.009664213,-0.00901334,0.003772723,-0.001510468,0.004068745,-0.002310851

Distance to:LBA_GR_Skourtanioti
0.01717001Greece_BA_Mycenaean
0.02345011Bulgaria_EIA
0.02619820Greece_Delphi_BA_Mycenaean
0.02693809Spain_Greek_oAegean
0.02959986Bulgaria_IA
0.03136012Italy_Sardinia_IA_1
0.03145747Italy_Bivio_Roman.SG
0.03188914Bulgaria_LIA
0.03372067Hungary_Transtisza_Maros_EAvar
0.03377911Italy_IA_Republic_oEasternMediterranean.SG
0.03561188Greece_Delphi_IA
0.03646918Italy_LA.SG
0.03730575Tunisia_Punic.SG
0.03760797Italy_Lazio_Viterbo_Imperial
0.03783639Spain_Hellenistic_oAegean
0.03869146Italy_Medieval_EarlyModern.SG
0.03886403Greece_Koufonisi_Cycladic_EBA.SG
0.03971727Romania_C_Bodrogkeresztur_o1
0.04009861Greece_BA_Mycenaean_in.preparation
0.04010447Turkey_MBA_o1
0.04068435Greece_BA_Mycenaean_Pylos
0.04104522Bulgaria_Krepost_N
0.04142879Serbia_Sirmium_Roman.SG
0.04223117Italy_Ordona_Medieval.SG
0.04272100Turkey_Archaic_SubGeometric

Interestingly the avg plots a bit closer to modern pops from the south Italian/Aegean cluster than the other samples

Distance to:LBA_GR_Skourtanioti
0.03811776Italian_Calabria
0.03831330Italian_Campania
0.03882670Italian_Apulia
0.03994173Greek_Apulia
0.04000692Greek_Deep_Mani
0.04010906Italian_Basilicata
0.04025972Sicilian_East
0.04316360Italian_Lazio
0.04320160Italian_Abruzzo
0.04403352Greek_Cyclades_Tinos
0.04430207Greek_Cyclades_Milos
0.04438035Italian_Molise
0.04487640Greek_Crete_Lasithi
0.04615004Maltese
0.04682257Greek_South_Tsakonia
0.04693183Italian_Jew
0.04698582Italian_Umbria
0.04773350Greek_Izmir
0.04799445Sicilian_West
0.04835830Greek_Crete
0.04836766Greek_Kos
0.04858654Greek_Cyclades_Amorgos
0.04860586Ashkenazi_Germany
0.04875908Italian_Marche
0.04892727Greek_Dodecanese

It is modelled with a very low distance (for a LBA sample) as a Dodecanesian with significantly higher Sardinian-like/Barcin-like ancestry confirming what we already knew that modern Aegean cluster has significant ancient Anatolian input.


Target: LBA_GR_Skourtanioti
Distance: 0.0200% / 0.02002401 | R2P
62.4Greek_Dodecanese_Rhodes
37.6Sardinian

Previous Mycenaean and EIA samples were half Anatolian-like+ half Sardinian-like, so we now we see a slightly more Steppe admixed + CHG combo version.
Probably the Western Anatolian-like profile in Aegean (and mainland Greece?) became dominant during Hellenistic era.

I would like to see samples from LBA/IA northern mainland as well. I would expect a closer to southern Thracians/ a bit more Steppe admixed avg with interesting variations among individuals.

As I have already mentioned mainland Greece is the combination of modern Dodecanesian-like+ modern Balkan (Slavic+ ancient Balkan mix) to different ratios
 
So I made an average including the LBA Skourtanioti samples. They plot between the Mycenaeans and EIA Greek samples we already had and south Thracians. So nothing unexpected here. Pretty much the typical Hellenic results.

LBA_GR_Skourtanioti,0.108301511,0.156802043,-0.003891532,-0.057363426,0.024606766,-0.024008404,-0.003555064,-0.003387723,0.008764043,0.043135638,0.00394566,0.009087745,-0.015524,-0.00151383,-0.019364681,-0.008488489,0.008621979,9.43404E-05,0.007771894,-0.009664213,-0.00901334,0.003772723,-0.001510468,0.004068745,-0.002310851

Distance to:LBA_GR_Skourtanioti
0.01717001Greece_BA_Mycenaean
0.02345011Bulgaria_EIA
0.02619820Greece_Delphi_BA_Mycenaean
0.02693809Spain_Greek_oAegean
0.02959986Bulgaria_IA
0.03136012Italy_Sardinia_IA_1
0.03145747Italy_Bivio_Roman.SG
0.03188914Bulgaria_LIA
0.03372067Hungary_Transtisza_Maros_EAvar
0.03377911Italy_IA_Republic_oEasternMediterranean.SG
0.03561188Greece_Delphi_IA
0.03646918Italy_LA.SG
0.03730575Tunisia_Punic.SG
0.03760797Italy_Lazio_Viterbo_Imperial
0.03783639Spain_Hellenistic_oAegean
0.03869146Italy_Medieval_EarlyModern.SG
0.03886403Greece_Koufonisi_Cycladic_EBA.SG
0.03971727Romania_C_Bodrogkeresztur_o1
0.04009861Greece_BA_Mycenaean_in.preparation
0.04010447Turkey_MBA_o1
0.04068435Greece_BA_Mycenaean_Pylos
0.04104522Bulgaria_Krepost_N
0.04142879Serbia_Sirmium_Roman.SG
0.04223117Italy_Ordona_Medieval.SG
0.04272100Turkey_Archaic_SubGeometric

Interestingly the avg plots a bit closer to modern pops from the south Italian/Aegean cluster than the other samples

Distance to:LBA_GR_Skourtanioti
0.03811776Italian_Calabria
0.03831330Italian_Campania
0.03882670Italian_Apulia
0.03994173Greek_Apulia
0.04000692Greek_Deep_Mani
0.04010906Italian_Basilicata
0.04025972Sicilian_East
0.04316360Italian_Lazio
0.04320160Italian_Abruzzo
0.04403352Greek_Cyclades_Tinos
0.04430207Greek_Cyclades_Milos
0.04438035Italian_Molise
0.04487640Greek_Crete_Lasithi
0.04615004Maltese
0.04682257Greek_South_Tsakonia
0.04693183Italian_Jew
0.04698582Italian_Umbria
0.04773350Greek_Izmir
0.04799445Sicilian_West
0.04835830Greek_Crete
0.04836766Greek_Kos
0.04858654Greek_Cyclades_Amorgos
0.04860586Ashkenazi_Germany
0.04875908Italian_Marche
0.04892727Greek_Dodecanese

It is modelled with a very low distance (for a LBA sample) as a Dodecanesian with significantly higher Sardinian-like/Barcin-like ancestry confirming what we already knew that modern Aegean cluster has significant ancient Anatolian input.


Target: LBA_GR_Skourtanioti
Distance: 0.0200% / 0.02002401 | R2P
62.4Greek_Dodecanese_Rhodes
37.6Sardinian

Previous Mycenaean and EIA samples were half Anatolian-like+ half Sardinian-like, so we now we see a slightly more Steppe admixed + CHG combo version.
Probably the Western Anatolian-like profile in Aegean (and mainland Greece?) became dominant during Hellenistic era.

I would like to see samples from LBA/IA northern mainland as well. I would expect a closer to southern Thracians/ a bit more Steppe admixed avg with interesting variations among individuals.

As I have already mentioned mainland Greece is the combination of modern Dodecanesian-like+ modern Balkan (Slavic+ ancient Balkan mix) to different ratios
The perseverance not to include Albanian cases in these tables is astonishing :D
I mean, the most obvious thing that could have a minimal distance from these samples, nada, nada, not interesting...
 
xri34: Thanks for the coordinates. I do not have G25 coordinates, rather G25_Simulated. Using simulated G25, my distance from LBA_GR_Skourtanioti.

Distance to:PT_G25_Ancestry_simulated_g25_scaled
0.03204073LBA_GR_Skourtanioti
 
I looked at the supplementals. Of the 8 E-V13 labeled as Balkan Iron Age, 4 are clearly south Thracian in profile and the other four are something else. One of these is shown as Albanian IA but with a very low feat, and the other three as Croat IA + Aegean IA. I am confident I identified them on the PCA, and 3 fall under the Bassarabi zone, just below Cinamak. One from Viminacium I think is Dacian, it is modeled as 81% IA Croatia and 19% Aegean but the fit is super low and there is not a single Viminacium sample on the PCA that aligns between IA Croatia and BA Aegean.

I15490 - E-CTS1273, South Thracian in profile.
I15504 - E-BY3880, South Thracian in profile.
I15518 - E-CTS1273, South Thracian in profile.
I15554 - E-BY3880, South Thracian in profile.
I15495 - E-CTS9320, this one is the one I think might be a Dacian, in the old PCA graph from the pre-print, this would be the sample that almost plots like a central European.
I15507 - E-BY3880, Bassarabi or half south Thracian, half Dacian
I15544 - E-BY3880, Bassarabi/Moesian local
I15553 - E-CTS1273, Bassarabi/Moesian local

It looks like most E-V13 in Viminacium are south Thracians, and if the authors want to capture local profiles they ought to consider taking samples from smaller settlements in the countryside. In Timacum Minus, only one E-V13 is south Thracian, and the rest are of unique profile, which should be local.

There is also a new E-V13 sample from Komardin, that plots fairly close to South Thracian, but somewhat different which the authors have modeled as half Croatian IA and half BA-IA Aegean. Probably another Dacian-Thracian mixed profile.

And the single R-Z1203 sample that is Balkan IA, seems to be Illyrian, and plots like a Daunian.
Is there much of a difference to distinguish South Thracians with the Northern ones? BGR_IA was from Northern Bulgaria.
 
So I made an average including the LBA Skourtanioti samples. They plot between the Mycenaeans and EIA Greek samples we already had and south Thracians. So nothing unexpected here. Pretty much the typical Hellenic results.

LBA_GR_Skourtanioti,0.108301511,0.156802043,-0.003891532,-0.057363426,0.024606766,-0.024008404,-0.003555064,-0.003387723,0.008764043,0.043135638,0.00394566,0.009087745,-0.015524,-0.00151383,-0.019364681,-0.008488489,0.008621979,9.43404E-05,0.007771894,-0.009664213,-0.00901334,0.003772723,-0.001510468,0.004068745,-0.002310851

Distance to:LBA_GR_Skourtanioti
0.01717001Greece_BA_Mycenaean
0.02345011Bulgaria_EIA
0.02619820Greece_Delphi_BA_Mycenaean
0.02693809Spain_Greek_oAegean
0.02959986Bulgaria_IA
0.03136012Italy_Sardinia_IA_1
0.03145747Italy_Bivio_Roman.SG
0.03188914Bulgaria_LIA
0.03372067Hungary_Transtisza_Maros_EAvar
0.03377911Italy_IA_Republic_oEasternMediterranean.SG
0.03561188Greece_Delphi_IA
0.03646918Italy_LA.SG
0.03730575Tunisia_Punic.SG
0.03760797Italy_Lazio_Viterbo_Imperial
0.03783639Spain_Hellenistic_oAegean
0.03869146Italy_Medieval_EarlyModern.SG
0.03886403Greece_Koufonisi_Cycladic_EBA.SG
0.03971727Romania_C_Bodrogkeresztur_o1
0.04009861Greece_BA_Mycenaean_in.preparation
0.04010447Turkey_MBA_o1
0.04068435Greece_BA_Mycenaean_Pylos
0.04104522Bulgaria_Krepost_N
0.04142879Serbia_Sirmium_Roman.SG
0.04223117Italy_Ordona_Medieval.SG
0.04272100Turkey_Archaic_SubGeometric

Interestingly the avg plots a bit closer to modern pops from the south Italian/Aegean cluster than the other samples

Distance to:LBA_GR_Skourtanioti
0.03811776Italian_Calabria
0.03831330Italian_Campania
0.03882670Italian_Apulia
0.03994173Greek_Apulia
0.04000692Greek_Deep_Mani
0.04010906Italian_Basilicata
0.04025972Sicilian_East
0.04316360Italian_Lazio
0.04320160Italian_Abruzzo
0.04403352Greek_Cyclades_Tinos
0.04430207Greek_Cyclades_Milos
0.04438035Italian_Molise
0.04487640Greek_Crete_Lasithi
0.04615004Maltese
0.04682257Greek_South_Tsakonia
0.04693183Italian_Jew
0.04698582Italian_Umbria
0.04773350Greek_Izmir
0.04799445Sicilian_West
0.04835830Greek_Crete
0.04836766Greek_Kos
0.04858654Greek_Cyclades_Amorgos
0.04860586Ashkenazi_Germany
0.04875908Italian_Marche
0.04892727Greek_Dodecanese

It is modelled with a very low distance (for a LBA sample) as a Dodecanesian with significantly higher Sardinian-like/Barcin-like ancestry confirming what we already knew that modern Aegean cluster has significant ancient Anatolian input.


Target: LBA_GR_Skourtanioti
Distance: 0.0200% / 0.02002401 | R2P
62.4Greek_Dodecanese_Rhodes
37.6Sardinian

Previous Mycenaean and EIA samples were half Anatolian-like+ half Sardinian-like, so we now we see a slightly more Steppe admixed + CHG combo version.
Probably the Western Anatolian-like profile in Aegean (and mainland Greece?) became dominant during Hellenistic era.

I would like to see samples from LBA/IA northern mainland as well. I would expect a closer to southern Thracians/ a bit more Steppe admixed avg with interesting variations among individuals.

As I have already mentioned mainland Greece is the combination of modern Dodecanesian-like+ modern Balkan (Slavic+ ancient Balkan mix) to different ratios
there are also 2 samples from archaic period(I17959,I17962) from kastrouli in Phokis) but i can't find their G25 coordinates
 
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