Ghurier
Regular member
- Messages
- 171
- Reaction score
- 116
- Points
- 43
- Location
- Many
- Y-DNA haplogroup
- J-L283-->J-Z631
- mtDNA haplogroup
- U5b2b
^ J-Z631 has been found in Roman Timacum Minus, in modern day southern Serbia, and autosomally labeled Balkans Iron Age Cluster by the authors (source).
???
Why are you giving priority to a ~400 CE sample against a ~100 CE sample ? Going there, we could aswell give priority to the Viking sample in ~1000 CE ?
Why would the autosomal profile of a 400 CE sample would be more relevant than the one of a 100 CE sample ?
Coverage in Eastern Alps where the diversity points is almost non-existent, for sure, if you don't look somewhere you'll find nothing.
In fact, there is many ways this sample could have arrived here with my current diffusion model. It is far from being inconsistent (some branches could have arrived here even before roman times).
Whereas, a 100 CE sample with Hallstatt like admixture didn't let a lot of generations to be created if this clade is collected from ~100 BC Balkans.
For sure, it create some tensions.
The fact that you fail to simply acknowledge this tension, and didn't even spend a second to try to explains this sample is "surprising".
Furthermore, J-Z631 has so far been absent in Celtic related cultures, or anywhere in Central Europe for that matter. Until it shows up in that context, it remains an unsubstantiated hypothesis.
Is your argument : "Only ancient DNA matters" ? Independantly of the ancient DNA coverage ?
If so, I disagree, because it means that you're methodology make the assumption that un-sampled populations didn't exist (sounds like a weird hypothesis to me).
As I explained already many times, let do a bit of statistics :
-What do we need to exclude the presence of a sample in a given population ? Roughly a 7-8 samples expectation without finding a single one, for a 3 sigma exclusion.
-How to reach a 7-8 samples expactation ? By collecting a lot of sample in an unbiased way.
-How many sample do we need for a clade with ~5% frequence ? Roughly 150 samples at a given location to reach that depth.
Ancient DNA didn't offer that, we are not even close to that. Large fraction where samples could be found have bascally a 0 sample coverage.
Therefore, until it shows up with large diversity in EIA balkans, the theory of Illyrian Z631 is an unsubstantiated hypothesis.
And is even disfavored by diversification history and surviving clustering of pre-roman subclades.
G.