Palermo Trapani
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I see that you have taken distance from Europe.....and European affairs. Of course it's a novelty that Germany would fill the gap you like to make. And of course this has to do with history. But ok we are 75 years later and Germany has been a stabile democracy, even more stabile than the US in the last years.
You are only reasoning in gas and oil and supply.....my reasoning goes further. First of all if you think that Putin is an European affaire, you will be surprised Russia does muchmore than China to destabilize your country. So the European battlefield is yours. Secondly I'm a defender of liberal democracy, of independent law, the trias politica, free press etc. All sort of populist/ authoritarian movements want to smother that. That's for me the real struggle against Russia and China....not oil and gas.
Yes and No. Germany is dependent on Russia for its Oil and Gas supplies. The NORD2 is a pipeline that connects Russia directly to Germany. So yes the economics of Oil and Gas are tied to this. You can't decouple the Economics of Germany and other Western European Countries being dependent on Russia from the other geopolitical realities regarding Putin trying to destabilize European Democracies. Regarding NORD2, the Cost for Germany and Russia both go down as Russia now does not have to pay all the transit fees for all the Oil and Gas it sends through land based lines through Ukraine and other countries before it gets to Germany and other Western European countries. For NORD2 to get approval, if Germany gives it regulatory approval, it is approved. There really isn't much the USA can do about it. Which gets back to my point, Germany is the 4th largest economy in the world yet spends 1.5% of its GDP, well below the NATO mandated 2%, for NATO to defend it against "Russia". The Yes has 35K forces stationed in Germany, of its roughly normal 70K which I think has been bumped to around 80K with all this Ukraine crisis. And I totally get that Germany is economically acting in its interest they given they would have to incur significant cost of securing oil and gas from other countries. This direct NORD2 pipeline makes economic sense for Germany. I totally get it. But from a NATO perspective, hmmm not so much. Germany to me needs to pay its 2%, even more so now with this NORD2 deal they pretty much unilaterally negotiated with Russia.
I am no Fan of Putin, but this is not the Soviet Union any longer. China is the larger geo political threat to the USA in my view. Russia is not the Peer to the USA. China unfortunately is now the peer Superpower and has the Political, Economic and Military capability to project Chinese interest around the world more so than Russia does. The USA managed to not get into War with the Former Soviet Union after WW2 ended. Is Putin in terms of freedoms we associate with democracies any different than Erdogan of Turkey? Yet, Turkey has been still geopolitically engaged with the USA and Europe via NATO (They are a NATO ally). You both engage with Putin and contain him. No need to have a war with him. The Soviet Union did more than Putin regarding destabilization of democracies and thank God we didn't get into any major conflicts.
As for this geopolitical gap. What Gap is going to be filled. Please be clear. I remember all this screaming and yelling I heard about the USA forces in Europe during the Reagan era. This was the height of the Cold War and I remember the anti Reagan and Thatcher (British PM) slogans. It is almost the Clash "Should I stay or should I go" is on a continuous Loop geopolitically regarding the US military presence there.
Who should bear the costs against Russia in Europe? The USA or European Countries. It is almost like you are saying if the USA does not leave those 35K in Germany, then Germany will fill the gap. All I am saying is that if Germany can unilaterally act in its own economic interest to secure Oil and Gas supplies from Russia directly, bypassing all the land based lines from Russia into Germany, which go through several other countries, why should the USA incur the costs of defending Germany from Russia. Germany does not have to increase its funding on military. They can just pay the 2% of GDP of NATO requires, that both the UK and France pay, the 5th and 7th largest Economies in the world. To be fair, Italy should pay more as well, it is the 8th largest economy.