ToBeOrNotToBe
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I forgot about that guy - that's bloody old, are we sure the C14 is correct?
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Modern distribution of R1b-Z2103
- Thread starter Maciamo
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I forgot about that guy - that's bloody old, are we sure the C14 is correct?
It is indeed old, considering yfull estimates that Z2103 began forming in 4,100 BC and is 95% confident that it is no older than 4,800 BC. Mistakes in classification are not unknown, although my estimates are that formational Z2103 could well be as old as 5,500 BC if some curiously divergent outliers are incorporated into the analysis.
There are ten Z2103-equivalent SNPs that could have come together over a thousand or more years, so what is considered to be the 'birthplace' of Z2103 is probably a very wide area, especially if its long sequence of bearers were nomadic.
The relevant data is limited, but suggests that the bearers of formational Z2103 most likely existed predominantly over a wide arc running from the Caucasus region to Poland. Its two surviving branches appear to have separated fairly early on - (i) a Western branch that spread around Germany and the Balkans before withering and being subsumed into other populations (e.g. R1a-dominated Corded Ware), and (ii) an Eastern branch that retreated into relative isolation around the Caucasus and Caspian before merging later into mainly Caucasian populations. (There would also have been other branches that died out - one isolated early Northern Spanish sample, for instance, has a curious autosomal similarity to Balkan Z2103.)
I am interested in the modern distribution of Z2103 South of the Caucasus, and the degree to which it might descend from Eastern Yamnaya, Maykop and/or Hittite populations, if anyone has further information on this?
There are ten Z2103-equivalent SNPs that could have come together over a thousand or more years, so what is considered to be the 'birthplace' of Z2103 is probably a very wide area, especially if its long sequence of bearers were nomadic.
The relevant data is limited, but suggests that the bearers of formational Z2103 most likely existed predominantly over a wide arc running from the Caucasus region to Poland. Its two surviving branches appear to have separated fairly early on - (i) a Western branch that spread around Germany and the Balkans before withering and being subsumed into other populations (e.g. R1a-dominated Corded Ware), and (ii) an Eastern branch that retreated into relative isolation around the Caucasus and Caspian before merging later into mainly Caucasian populations. (There would also have been other branches that died out - one isolated early Northern Spanish sample, for instance, has a curious autosomal similarity to Balkan Z2103.)
I am interested in the modern distribution of Z2103 South of the Caucasus, and the degree to which it might descend from Eastern Yamnaya, Maykop and/or Hittite populations, if anyone has further information on this?
I have just checked on the Hajji Firuz R1b-Z2103 sample dated 5,650 BC.
The same study shows a sample of R1b-U106 from Iron Gates Serbia dated 8,885 BC. However, the subclade of U106 identified for this sample (R1b1a1a2a1a1b1a1a) is estimated by yfull to have a formation date of only 700 BC.
My understanding is that the readings in this study are only estimated, based on calls. As with many reports in relation to ancient samples, the reliability of this reading is perhaps questionable.
The same study shows a sample of R1b-U106 from Iron Gates Serbia dated 8,885 BC. However, the subclade of U106 identified for this sample (R1b1a1a2a1a1b1a1a) is estimated by yfull to have a formation date of only 700 BC.
My understanding is that the readings in this study are only estimated, based on calls. As with many reports in relation to ancient samples, the reliability of this reading is perhaps questionable.
Silesian
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An online active ydna/culture map,with ancient R1b-Z2103>Z2108+Z2109+Z2110+ samples [Yamnaya,Afansievo,Polatavka,Catacombe,Vucedol,Bell Beaker,Sintashta?,Sarmatian,Scythian etc...]
http://images.devs-on.net/Image/67vhlt2ViGcKn2jK-Region.png
Eastern R1b-Z2103 appears to have developed in the Caucasus region at around the same time as the Dolmen culture arose in this region. Might the heavy concentration of modern Z2103 around the Western Caucasus be linked to this, rather than preceding Steppe cultures? If not R1b-Z2103, which other y-DNA would the Dolmen people have borne?
The modern distribution of R1b-Z2103 exhibits its greatest diversity in two areas - the Southern Caucasus and East Central Europe. SNPs on yfull's database suggest a most likely formation zone for Z2103 in the Caucasus and STRs/SNPs on FTDNA's database suggest a most likely formation zone in East Central Europe, but there is insufficient data to arrive at a firm conclusion one way or the other.
There is little evidence in modern distributions to indicate a significant early development of surviving Z2103 populations anywhere across the vast area of the Steppe - it seems that either the early Z2103 Steppe populations largely evacuated the area or were otherwise eradicated from it, or that the Steppe was principally a migratory route for them between the Caucasus and East Central Europe.
Autosomally, early Z2103 samples (3,000-2,800 BC) across Eastern Europe (Balkans, Ukraine and Russia) are strikingly diverse, suggesting that yfull's TMRCA of 3,600 BC for Z2103 might be an underestimate. A combined analysis of SNPs and STRs would suggest a TMRCA of something more like 4,400 BC.
However, the first significant developmental stages of Z2103's Western and Eastern branches each appear to date to only approximately 3,200 BC. Eastern Z2103 is curious; both yfull's and FTDNA's databases seem to indicate the same thing - that its first significant developments were in Armenia, even though samples from this area at that time show little sign of the autosomal DNA that is core to early Z2103 samples. My suggestions are that (i) the ancestors of today's eastern Z2103 were located just to the West of where it now has its most diverse presence - along the low-lying coastal area from Circassia to North Eastern Turkey, and (ii) Z2103 spread into Armenia from the West just as R1a-Z93 moved into it from the North East during the early third millennium BC.
There is little evidence in modern distributions to indicate a significant early development of surviving Z2103 populations anywhere across the vast area of the Steppe - it seems that either the early Z2103 Steppe populations largely evacuated the area or were otherwise eradicated from it, or that the Steppe was principally a migratory route for them between the Caucasus and East Central Europe.
Autosomally, early Z2103 samples (3,000-2,800 BC) across Eastern Europe (Balkans, Ukraine and Russia) are strikingly diverse, suggesting that yfull's TMRCA of 3,600 BC for Z2103 might be an underestimate. A combined analysis of SNPs and STRs would suggest a TMRCA of something more like 4,400 BC.
However, the first significant developmental stages of Z2103's Western and Eastern branches each appear to date to only approximately 3,200 BC. Eastern Z2103 is curious; both yfull's and FTDNA's databases seem to indicate the same thing - that its first significant developments were in Armenia, even though samples from this area at that time show little sign of the autosomal DNA that is core to early Z2103 samples. My suggestions are that (i) the ancestors of today's eastern Z2103 were located just to the West of where it now has its most diverse presence - along the low-lying coastal area from Circassia to North Eastern Turkey, and (ii) Z2103 spread into Armenia from the West just as R1a-Z93 moved into it from the North East during the early third millennium BC.
halfalp
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Using modern population to explain ancient migration is the wrongest thing ever. Because like showing in India, their endogamism have created such founder effect that even if R1a-Z93 is found in prehistoric context in Eastern Europe / Central Asia, modern India is such a totally other population. Underhill did the same mistake by infering R1a must expanded from Iran because diversity was higher there. All those datas are absolutely missleading the reality of prehistoric migrations. The Pontic Zone meaning the Black Sea is an Horseshoe with the Caucasus at his Base. Meaning that, looking at ancient datas from Pontic Steppe were R1b and R1a originate at one point, their modern distribution and modern diversity gonna for sure being around Eastern Europe ( Russia, Ukraine ) -> Romania -> Bulgaria -> Turkey -> South Caucasus -> Iran. We still gonna have to listen to their everlasting hypothesis, until ancient samples only gonna confirm the north eurasian origin and expansion of R-related lineage. We should start to ask to some people especially Daamgard, why he dont test for y-dna some very important samples in relation with thoses expansions.
Silesian
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One of the most successful military armies-Mongols
Samara- region has been the home of R1b-Z2103 [Yamnaya/Poltovka/Catacombe to south,Sintashta/ Sarmatians, and Bashkirs]for a minimum of 5500YBP+/- if not older.
Any trace of Ghenis khan descendants in the region?
![3P8zNAAf02AGiYkq-Region.png]](http://images.devs-on.net/Image/3P8zNAAf02AGiYkq-Region.png])
The thread is about R1b-Z2103 (rather than R1a-Z93 or R-related lineages in general), and about its modern (rather than its ancient) distribution. However, regarding the points made, I have no opinion to express on whether R-related lineages had a North Eurasian origin. And there is no reason to suppose that various branches of R1a did not expand both inside and far outside of Iran over their very long periods of formation and development; to try to locate a single pinpoint is futile.
Data from modern populations provide a lot of detailed and accurate information that could relate to the most likely migrations of surviving branches. On the other hand, data from ancient samples is relatively sparse, commonly relates to lineages that have died out, and is frequently beset by classification errors. However, no information should be wholly disregarded; everything should be brought into consideration.
Regarding modern populations of Z2103 specifically, I do not see anything in the data to demonstrate a North Eurasian aspect to the development of its surviving branches. There is a cluster of related early branches that coalesces around Armenia and a similar cluster that coalesces West of the Dniester - these are the branches that survive and thrive today.
If anyone has any information to suggest that the immediate common ancestors of the Eastern branch of modern Z2103 most likely lived in an area other than the south eastern shores of the Black Sea around 3,000 BC, then I would be interested to hear about it.
Furthermore, given that (i) Yamnayan Z2103 samples exhibit a highly uniform and stable autosomal mix, and (ii) non-Yamnayan European Z2103 samples are very diverse autosomally (both from Yamnaya and from each other), is there any more likely explanation for this than that their DNA developed separately within different European populations at an earlier date, rather than as part of a single Yamnayan incusion at a later date?
Data from modern populations provide a lot of detailed and accurate information that could relate to the most likely migrations of surviving branches. On the other hand, data from ancient samples is relatively sparse, commonly relates to lineages that have died out, and is frequently beset by classification errors. However, no information should be wholly disregarded; everything should be brought into consideration.
Regarding modern populations of Z2103 specifically, I do not see anything in the data to demonstrate a North Eurasian aspect to the development of its surviving branches. There is a cluster of related early branches that coalesces around Armenia and a similar cluster that coalesces West of the Dniester - these are the branches that survive and thrive today.
If anyone has any information to suggest that the immediate common ancestors of the Eastern branch of modern Z2103 most likely lived in an area other than the south eastern shores of the Black Sea around 3,000 BC, then I would be interested to hear about it.
Furthermore, given that (i) Yamnayan Z2103 samples exhibit a highly uniform and stable autosomal mix, and (ii) non-Yamnayan European Z2103 samples are very diverse autosomally (both from Yamnaya and from each other), is there any more likely explanation for this than that their DNA developed separately within different European populations at an earlier date, rather than as part of a single Yamnayan incusion at a later date?
halfalp
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halfalp
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Omg... so your argument is that ancient R1b-Z2103 from Pontic Steppe is different autosomally than modern Armenian branch. Bravo. No y-dna R1b-Z2103 was found in important sites from Armenia, neither found in Kura-Araxes or Maikop proper, wich does not make sense, there was no hiding R1b-Z2103 in prehistoric Armenia that resurface in modern times. Wich basically means that modern Armenian R1b-Z2103 have an obvious steppic origin linking with the way more obvious fact that Armenia and Armenian are a surviving branch of IE language and culture.
Silesian
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halfalp
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I still dont get it. Obviously in an ancient context, R1a-Z93 and IE languages ultimately came from Pontic Steppe. But the modern population of India, her diversity, her endogamism would make it R1a-Z93 more likely to be local than to come from elswhere. Do my point, you cannot use modern dna to explain ancient migrations, you just cant, even if you have obviously more datas than ancient datas.
Z93 basal diversity always pointed to an origin in Central Asia, as reported in Underhill (2014).
Silesian
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Do you agree with yfull that Steppe R1b-z2103 is older than some Steppe R1a branches?
R-L23PF6404 * L478/PF6403 * L23/S141/PF6534formed 6400 ybp, TMRCA 6100 ybp]info
R-Z283Z662/CTS11197/PF6225 * Z283/S339/PF6217formed 5000 ybp, TMRCA 4900 ybpinfo
- R-L23*
- R-Z2103 Y4371/Z8128/M12149 * S20902/Z8130 * CTS9416+7 SNPs formed 6100 ybp, TMRCA 5600 ybpinfo
R-Z645Z646/CTS6596/M713/S346 * Z645/S224/PF6162/V1754 * Z650/CTS9754/PF6206/M750/V3726]+5 SNPsformed 5500 ybp, TMRCA 5000 ybpinfo
https://www.yfull.com/tree
halfalp
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Do you have a quote about Z93 basal diversity pointing to Central Asia in the Paper? I only see the following.
[h=3]Y-STR haplotype networks and diversity[/h]We genotyped a subset of 1355 R1a samples for 10–19 Y-chromosome STR loci (Supplementary Table 3) and constructed networks for both hg R1a-Z282 and hg R1a-Z93 (Supplementary Figure 1 and Supplementary Figure 2). Although we could assign haplotypes to various haplogroups, power to identify substructure within hg R1a-M198 was limited, consistent with previous work.22, 52 Although haplotype diversity is generally very high (H>0.95) in all haplogroups (Supplementary Table 3), lower diversities occur in south Siberian paragroup R1a-Z93* (H=0.921), in Jewish R1a-M582 (H=0.844) and in Roma R1a-M780 (H=0.759), consistent with founder effects that are evident in the network patterns for these populations (Supplementary Figure 2).
Wich make them believe that Z-93 origin was likely south asia.
halfalp
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Diversity of an haplogroup gonna be higher into a geographical area comprizing multiple and diverse lineages isn't? So obviously even I2 could be more diverse in Kurdistan.
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What do i know?