Health New Coronavirus in China

44.jpg

On Friday, this arena in Kaunas (capacity 16000) will be full of basketball fans from Milan ...
It is just perfect arrangement to import COVID-2019 to this country. Somehow even if sports games are suspended in North Italy, they are not in terms of going abroad.
Lithuanian authorities ruminate about the issue trying to push the responsibility to anyone but themselves and saying that the organisers of the sports event have been taking full responsibility for the consequences... the basketball league are saying tickets are sold out and they will go on with the games, and they are not getting into a hypothetical discussion like "what if someone from Milan comes with the virus without knowing it and infects hundreds of others..."

Well perhaps it is a national strategy after all - to get your country infected sooner because COVID-19 is not going away anyway and getting sick is the only way to overcome it...
 
Dagne said:
44.jpg

On Friday, this arena in Kaunas (capacity 16000) will be full of basketball fans from Milan ...
It is just perfect arrangement to import COVID-2019 to this country. Somehow even if sports games are suspended in North Italy, they are not in terms of going abroad.
Lithuanian authorities ruminate about the issue trying to push the responsibility to anyone but themselves and saying that the organisers of the sports event have been taking full responsibility for the consequences... the basketball league are saying tickets are sold out and they will go on with the games, and they are not getting into a hypothetical discussion like "what if someone from Milan comes with the virus without knowing it and infects hundreds of others..."

Well perhaps it is a national strategy after all - to get your country infected sooner because COVID-19 is not going away anyway and getting sick is the only way to overcome it...
Click to expand...

I completely disagree. It's easy to say, like some epidemiologists have been saying, that "eventually" 40-70% of the world's population will be infected. Does that mean take your chances "now" when there's no vaccine? We don't know enough about this virus yet. What if the fatality rate is indeed 2%? That's 2% of your entire population, and it's not going to be all old people.

They should cancel it, or do what they're doing in some parts of Italy. The players get tested and they play in an empty stadium. Watch it on tv or on online for goodness' sakes.
 
I was just kidding. Of course it is not good to get affected with this virus. Let's hope the games with Milan team will be cancelled after all.
 
Dagne said:
I was just kidding. Of course it is not good to get affected with this virus. Let's hope the games with Milan team will be cancelled after all.
Click to expand...

Sorry. Face to face discussions are always so much clearer.

Sometimes I wish I didn't have this addiction to having the news on as backdrop all day.

Here is Australia's take on it. So

"The most extreme scenario for Australia re: #Covid_19 - If "50% of Australians became infected, between 260,000 and 390,000 people would die, more than 1.8 million people would need a hospital bed and more than 650,000 people would need an ICU bed.""

So, as a result they're instituting emergency legislation and planning.

What is gripping Washington? Whether Russia is again planting disinformation on social media to benefit Trump and Bernie Sanders.

Madness.

I don't know who is buying up all the N95 respirator masks but everything on amazon is on backorder. I also called around to local outlets, and everything is gone. I guess regular people are paying attention.
 
Respirators and surgical masks are all gone from LT pharmacies/internet shops, too. Even though there weren't a single infection here. People like stocking up things.
Besides, I suppose face masks are made in China in any case, and with stopped factories in China and local demand it is just not enough of them for China alone.

By the way, in order to improve immune system's response to virus, it is better to get enough of sleep which that can help much more than a face mask. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqZYEgREuZ8

According to some research (referred to in video above) sleep deprivation can lessen immune systems response by 5 times, or, in other words, good regular sleep is like drugs against virus which increase your chances by 80%.
 
it seems that the scientific aproach to new coronavirus has changed,

the late opinion is that China wanted to impress the world, that is effective against pandemias.
and made all this noise.

the average mortality (death to infected) is about 1 / 40
which makes it serious but not as much as other viruses like the influenza,

Coronavirus is mainly exterminator of 3rd and 4rth age,
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

[TABLE="class: table table-hover table-bordered table-condensed table-list, width: 350"]
[TR="class: scrollable bordered, bgcolor: #FCF8F8"]
[TD="align: right"]
AGE​
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]DEATH RATE*[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: scrollable bordered"]
[TD]
80+ years old​
[/TD]
[TD="width: 125, align: right"]
14.8%​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: scrollable bordered"]
[TD="align: right"]
70-79 years old​
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
8.0%​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: scrollable bordered"]
[TD="align: right"]
60-69 years old​
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
3.6%​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: scrollable bordered"]
[TD="align: right"]
50-59 years old​
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
1.3%​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: scrollable bordered"]
[TD="align: right"]
40-49 years old​
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
0.4%​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: scrollable bordered"]
[TD="align: right"]
30-39 years old​
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
0.2%​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: scrollable bordered"]
[TD="align: right"]
20-29 years old​
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
0.2%​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: scrollable bordered"]
[TD="align: right"]
10-19 years old​
[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
0.2%​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: scrollable bordered"]
[TD="align: right"]0-9 years old[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]
no fatalities​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

on the other hand this winter influenza statistically had multiplied deaths per infected,
the H1N1 since 2009 and H3N2 seems more fatal per infected.
 
Italy has been looking at contacts with East Asians for Patient 0.
Could it instead have been Iran? Can’t say I’m surprised. The powers that be in Iran issued a statement that containment is old fashioned and not the way to approach this. I guess they think one cleric’s advice to clean their anuses with violet oil is more modern.

Just in: Former Iranian Ambassador to Vatican died of #COVID19 infection.

Iran’s Vice president Massoumeh Ebtekar has been tested positive to #Coronavirus. Ebtekar was present at yesterday’s cabinet meeting, sitting not far from President Rouhani. 2 Mps and a deputy health minister have said in past days that they have been infected.

Caixin Global: 14% of Recovered #Covid19usa Patients in Guangdong Tested Positive Again.this is very worrying, suggesting there is no memory antibody response, just innate immunity. Will make #vaccine effort more difficult. https://caixinglobal.com/2020-02-26/14-of-recovered-covid-19-patients-in-guangdong-tested-positive-again-101520415.html…

The first U.S. patient with transmission here in the U.S. went to two hospitals. The first one sent him to a U.C. Davis center in Sacramento. The hospitals say they asked for a sample to be tested by the CDC but it wasn’t done.
It was probably that they don’t yet have enough testing kits yets. This doesn’t absolve the hospitals of responsibility imo. If there was really serious lung involvement, they shouldn’t have sent him home. How many did he infect? Did they at least tell him to self-isolate while they waited for testing?

CDC+state labs are far below capacity for testing needed to contain and control #COVID19. CDC & FDA should recognize the incredible abundance of resources at expert US academic hospital (and industry) labs and allow us to step in to help - at the least for our own patients.

Sounds smart to me:
Israel warns its citizens to avoid ALL international travel over coronavirus fears in unprecedented move
 
I am not sure that the Coronavirus scare is really deserved.

According to Wikipedia, there are 3 to 5 million cases of influenza each year, which kill approximately 300,000 to 650,000 people. That's a 10% fatality rate. The flu season lasts about one month in one specific country, state or region.

The Coronavirus epidemics started 2 months ago and according to the ECDC so far there have been 82,000 people infected worldwide and 2,800 deaths (3.5% fatality rate). In comparison, there has been 13 million cases of influenza and thousands of deaths so far this winter! And that is despite the anti-contamination measures already taken in many countries for Covid-19 (which also work to reduce the spread of influenza)!

Besides it looks like the media are making major reporting errors. Even the trusted BBC reports in this article that the death rate for Covid-19 is between 1% and 2%, considerably less than the European CDC stats. But even at 3.5%, Covid-19 is 3 times less deadly than the typical yearly influenza.
 
Maciamo said:
I am not sure that the Coronavirus scare is really deserved.

According to Wikipedia, there are 3 to 5 million cases of influenza each year, which kill approximately 300,000 to 650,000 people. That's a 10% fatality rate. The flu season lasts about one month in one specific country, state or region.

The Coronavirus epidemics started 2 months ago and according to the ECDC so far there have been 82,000 people infected worldwide and 2,800 deaths (3.5% fatality rate). In comparison, there has been 13 million cases of influenza and thousands of deaths so far this winter! And that is despite the anti-contamination measures already taken in many countries for Covid-19 (which also work to reduce the spread of influenza)!

Besides it looks like the media are making major reporting errors. Even the trusted BBC reports in this article that the death rate for Covid-19 is between 1% and 2%, considerably less than the European CDC stats. But even at 3.5%, Covid-19 is 3 times less deadly than the typical yearly influenza.
Click to expand...
'
Even if its 3% fatality rate, given that this flu is heavily contagious if left unchecked it means 25 million Europeans could die. That's not a number to be ignored. This virus is heavily democratic, it kills rich and pour, young and old
Other strains of the flu are repetitive so people have some kind of immunity to fight it, or there is some medicine helping to fight it. COV-19 is brand new strain coming from animals, with no known medicine to fight
 
Tutkun Arnaut said:
'
Even if its 3% fatality rate, given that this flu is heavily contagious if left unchecked it means 25 million Europeans could die. That's not a number to be ignored. This virus is heavily democratic, it kills rich and pour, young and old
Other strains of the flu are repetitive so people have some kind of immunity to fight it, or there is some medicine helping to fight it. COV-19 is brand new strain coming from animals, with no known medicine to fight
Click to expand...



Influenza has no antidote also
H1N1 is also from animals (birds and pigs)
there are helping medicines like Tamiflu in my country
But in no way are considered as influenza cure antibiotic
The only defence against influenza is to make a vaccin every year
BUT THIS DOES NOT PROTECT You 100%
27 out 77 deaths from Influenza this year had made the vaccin against

considering that 77 out of 259 of novel influenza 2018-2019 were fatal in my country this year.
seems more threatening than nCOD19

an interesting aproach to modern influenza is the number of swallows, pigeons, etc left in Europe
 
The CFR or Case fatality rate for influenza is usually less than .1%.

"The CFR for the Spanish (1918) flu was >2.5%,[3] but about 0.1% for the Asian (1956-58) and Hong Kong (1968-69) flus,[4] and <0.1% for other influenza pandemics.[3]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate

According to the CDC these are the correct stats for the U.S. in 2017-2018, which was a particularly bad year:

The CDC predicts that at least 12,000 Americans will die from the flu in any given year. As many as 61,000 people died in the 2017-2018 flu season, and 45 million were infected.
Coronavirus is much more infectious. The WHO put out a figure of 40-70% infection rate. The United States has a population of 327 million. At a 50% infection rate that would be 163 million infected versus 45 million.

Now, if the fatality rate really is the 2% figure being discussed, then we'd be looking not at 61,000 dead, but 3,260,000 dead. Thankfully, scientists have been speculating that the figure might be lower because perhaps China doesn't have the number of infected but asymptomatic, or just a regular flu like experience. That's why they were concerned when the WHO said, after their trip to China, that there aren't very many who get a mild, flu like experience. (China's fatality rate is 3.5%)

Let's ignore all that and use a figure of 1%. That's still 1,600,000 people dead versus 61,000 dead.

Then there's the 20% of infected who need ICU. 20% of half the population of the U.S. is an unimaginable catastrophe. Who has that kind of capacity?

That's why the CDC is sounding the alarm.
 
That is because we do not a vaccin against Coronas yet,
neither a helping treaty medicine
something is said about chloraquine, but nothing official.

Yet considering that even 27 out of 77 deaths had made the annual vaccin
I think the numbers give odd vision
same as in 2009, only this time towards Corona
 
Angela said:
The CFR or Case fatality rate for influenza is usually less than .1%.

"The CFR for the Spanish (1918) flu was >2.5%,[3] but about 0.1% for the Asian (1956-58) and Hong Kong (1968-69) flus,[4] and <0.1% for other influenza pandemics.[3]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate

According to the CDC these are the correct stats for the U.S. in 2017-2018, which was a particularly bad year:

The CDC predicts that at least 12,000 Americans will die from the flu in any given year. As many as 61,000 people died in the 2017-2018 flu season, and 45 million were infected.
Coronavirus is much more infectious. The WHO put out a figure of 40-70% infection rate. The United States has a population of 327 million. At a 50% infection rate that would be 163 million infected versus 45 million.

Now, if the fatality rate really is the 2% figure being discussed, then we'd be looking not at 61,000 dead, but 3,260,000 dead. Thankfully, scientists have been speculating that the figure might be lower because perhaps China doesn't have the number of infected but asymptomatic, or just a regular flu like experience. That's why they were concerned when the WHO said, after their trip to China, that there aren't very many who get a mild, flu like experience. (China's fatality rate is 3.5%)

Let's ignore all that and use a figure of 1%. That's still 1,600,000 people dead versus 61,000 dead.

Then there's the 20% of infected who need ICU. 20% of half the population of the U.S. is an unimaginable catastrophe. Who has that kind of capacity?

That's why the CDC is sounding the alarm.
Click to expand...

Ok, it seems that the information on Wikipedia was misleading. Here is what it said:

"Influenza spreads around the world in yearly outbreaks, resulting in about three to five million cases of severe illness and about 290,000 to 650,000 deaths."

300,000 deaths per 3 million cases would be a 10% fatality rate, but apparently that's only for severe cases. Further down the page it says:

[TABLE="class: wikitable"]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]Name[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]Date[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]Subtype[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]People infected (est.)[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]Deaths[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]Case fatality rate[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]Pandemic Severity Index[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]1889–90 flu pandemic[212][/TH]
[TD]1889–90[/TD]
[TD]Likely H3N8 or H2N2[/TD]
[TD="class: unknown table-unknown"]Unknown[/TD]
[TD]1 million[/TD]
[TD]0.15%[/TD]
[TD="class: unknown table-unknown"]Unknown[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]Spanish flu[213][/TH]
[TD]1918–20[/TD]
[TD]H1N1[/TD]
[TD]33% (500 million)[214][/TD]
[TD]20–100 million[/TD]
[TD]2–3%[215][/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]Asian flu[/TH]
[TD]1957–58[/TD]
[TD]H2N2[/TD]
[TD]8–33% (250 million – 1 billion[216])[/TD]
[TD]1–1.5 million[/TD]
[TD]<0.2%[217][/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]Hong Kong flu[/TH]
[TD]1968–69[/TD]
[TD]H3N2[/TD]
[TD]7–28% (250 million – 1 billion[218])[/TD]
[TD]0.75–1 million[/TD]
[TD]<0.2%[219][/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]Russian flu[/TH]
[TD]1977–78[/TD]
[TD]H1N1[/TD]
[TD="class: unknown table-unknown"]Unknown[/TD]
[TD="class: unknown table-unknown"]Unknown[/TD]
[TD="class: unknown table-unknown"]Unknown[/TD]
[TD="class: unknown table-unknown"]Unknown[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]2009 flu pandemic[220][221][/TH]
[TD]2009–10[/TD]
[TD]H1N1/09[/TD]
[TD]10–200 million[222][/TD]
[TD]105,700–395,600[223][/TD]
[TD]0.03%[224][/TD]
[TD="class: unknown table-unknown"]Unknown[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]Seasonal flu[t 1][/TH]
[TD]Every year[/TD]
[TD]Mainly A/H3N2, A/H1N1, and B[/TD]
[TD]5–15% (340 million – 1 billion)[225][/TD]
[TD]290,000–650,000/year[226][/TD]
[TD]<0.1%[227][/TD]
[TD="class: table-na"]N/A[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

So there can be up to 1 billion people infected by the seasonal flu each year. That's much more than I expected. The CDC report of 13 millions cases of flu this year also mislead me as I thought it was worldwide, but it was only for the USA (it was not mentioned anywhere on the page I linked above).

So the fatality rate is higher for Covid-19 than the seasonal flu, but the number of cases are incredibly low in comparison so far. The question is how long can the pandemic last before the virus mutates and loses strength? With the seasonal flu it's a few weeks or months. Can Covid-19 last for a whole year or more? That would be more worrying.
 
Maciamo said:
Ok, it seems that the information on Wikipedia was misleading. Here is what it said:

"Influenza spreads around the world in yearly outbreaks, resulting in about three to five million cases of severe illness and about 290,000 to 650,000 deaths."

300,000 deaths per 3 million cases would be a 10% fatality rate, but apparently that's only for severe cases. Further down the page it says:

[TABLE="class: wikitable"]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]Name[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]Date[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]Subtype[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]People infected (est.)[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]Deaths[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]Case fatality rate[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]Pandemic Severity Index[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]1889–90 flu pandemic[212][/TH]
[TD]1889–90[/TD]
[TD]Likely H3N8 or H2N2[/TD]
[TD="class: unknown table-unknown"]Unknown[/TD]
[TD]1 million[/TD]
[TD]0.15%[/TD]
[TD="class: unknown table-unknown"]Unknown[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]Spanish flu[213][/TH]
[TD]1918–20[/TD]
[TD]H1N1[/TD]
[TD]33% (500 million)[214][/TD]
[TD]20–100 million[/TD]
[TD]2–3%[215][/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]Asian flu[/TH]
[TD]1957–58[/TD]
[TD]H2N2[/TD]
[TD]8–33% (250 million – 1 billion[216])[/TD]
[TD]1–1.5 million[/TD]
[TD]<0.2%[217][/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]Hong Kong flu[/TH]
[TD]1968–69[/TD]
[TD]H3N2[/TD]
[TD]7–28% (250 million – 1 billion[218])[/TD]
[TD]0.75–1 million[/TD]
[TD]<0.2%[219][/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]Russian flu[/TH]
[TD]1977–78[/TD]
[TD]H1N1[/TD]
[TD="class: unknown table-unknown"]Unknown[/TD]
[TD="class: unknown table-unknown"]Unknown[/TD]
[TD="class: unknown table-unknown"]Unknown[/TD]
[TD="class: unknown table-unknown"]Unknown[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]2009 flu pandemic[220][221][/TH]
[TD]2009–10[/TD]
[TD]H1N1/09[/TD]
[TD]10–200 million[222][/TD]
[TD]105,700–395,600[223][/TD]
[TD]0.03%[224][/TD]
[TD="class: unknown table-unknown"]Unknown[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TH="bgcolor: #EAECF0, align: center"]Seasonal flu[t 1][/TH]
[TD]Every year[/TD]
[TD]Mainly A/H3N2, A/H1N1, and B[/TD]
[TD]5–15% (340 million – 1 billion)[225][/TD]
[TD]290,000–650,000/year[226][/TD]
[TD]<0.1%[227][/TD]
[TD="class: table-na"]N/A[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

So there can be up to 1 billion people infected by the seasonal flu each year. That's much more than I expected. The CDC report of 13 millions cases of flu this year also mislead me as I thought it was worldwide, but it was only for the USA (it was not mentioned anywhere on the page I linked above).

So the fatality rate is higher for Covid-19 than the seasonal flu, but the number of cases are incredibly low in comparison so far. The question is how long can the pandemic last before the virus mutates and loses strength? With the seasonal flu it's a few weeks or months. Can Covid-19 last for a whole year or more? That would be more worrying.
Click to expand...

The latest figures from an epidemiologist I saw are 15% of infected require hospitalization and 1-2% die, which is 10-20X the lethality of the seasonal flu.

One of the biggest problems is the strain this would put on the health care system if within a short period of time there would be this flood of people who need to be in ICU and needing breathing assistance. Nobody has that kind of capacity.

Any one individual has a very low chance of dying from this thing even if infected unless the person is over 60 or 70 and has pre-existing conditions. I think the point is that it is everyone's civic duty to follow recommendations so that the incidence of serious disease is kept down, thus minimizing the disruption to our societies as a whole.

What is indeed worrying is when the CDC says it may become a "seasonal" type of flu, although Dr. Fauci said they hope to have a vaccine ready for distribution within a year to eighteen months.

What's also upsetting is that they can't pinpoint the source because there are stretches of dna, the ones making it far more contagious, which appear in diseases like AIDS and Ebola, but not in coronavirus strains. I don't go in for conspiracy theories, so let's hope there's some "natural" explanation.
 
Maciamo said:
So there can be up to 1 billion people infected by the seasonal flu each year. That's much more than I expected. The CDC report of 13 millions cases of flu this year also mislead me as I thought it was worldwide, but it was only for the USA (it was not mentioned anywhere on the page I linked above).

So the fatality rate is higher for Covid-19 than the seasonal flu, but the number of cases are incredibly low in comparison so far. The question is how long can the pandemic last before the virus mutates and loses strength? With the seasonal flu it's a few weeks or months. Can Covid-19 last for a whole year or more? That would be more worrying.
Click to expand...

The point is that it is a novel corona virus for people, which means that unlike in case of seasonal flu, no one has immunity to it - so everyone can get infected at the same time.

Without preventive measures, with a virus which is novel to people, circa 70% of population may get infected during one year.

The capacity to treat people is rather limited - for instance in LT there are at best up to 1000 beds suitable for such patients throughout the country, however, there may be up to 150 000 patients with serious complications, where supportive help in hospital is required. They would not fall ill everyone at once but throughout the year, but still that is many more than the health system can take.

Further, setting quarantine for those who get ill with moderate or light symptoms would be a great challenge, because of share number of people who may get sick and also because this virus is transmitted through fecal-oral route, too. To put it simply, it is easily transmitted because of using the same bathroom as viruses get into the air when we flush. And even more than than - because of ventilation systems in apartment blocks, there is a risk that all who live above or below a sick person (their bathroom) will get infected through the ventilation system. So it is not enough to send people home to get isolated when they live in apartment blocks. In hospitals they use negative pressure rooms and have special viral filtering systems for cleaning the air. But not in apartments, or offices or large liner ships... so washing your hands and not touching face as well as avoiding social contacts is not enough to protect yourself in case of this virus.

Besides, according to reports from China, about 14% of people who recovered from this virus are getting ill again, which is again not like with seasonal flu, where people don't get infected repeatedly. The later repeated infection/or prolonged period during which recovered people may be shedding virus is something to be taken into consideration when estimating consequences.
 
Last edited:
Dagne said:
The point is that it is a novel corona virus for people, which means that unlike in case of seasonal flu, no one has immunity to it - so everyone can get infected at the same time.

Without preventive measures, with a virus which is novel to people, circa 70% of population may get infected during one year.

The capacity to treat people is rather limited - for instance in LT there are at best up to 1000 beds suitable for such patients throughout the country, however, there may be up to 150 000 patients with serious complications, where supportive help in hospital is required. They would not fall ill everyone at once but throughout the year, but still that is many more than the health system can take.

Further, setting quarantine for those who get ill with moderate or light symptoms would be a great challenge, because of share number of people who may get sick and also because this virus is transmitted through fecal-oral route, too. To put it simply, it is easily transmitted because of using the same bathroom as viruses get into the air when we flush. And even more than than - because of ventilation systems in apartment blocks, there is a risk that all who live above or below a sick person (their bathroom) will get infected through the ventilation system. So it is not enough to send people home to get isolated when they live in apartment blocks. In hospitals they use negative pressure rooms and have special viral filtering systems for cleaning the air. But not in apartments, or offices or large liner ships... so washing your hands and not touching face as well as avoiding social contacts is not enough to protect yourself in case of this virus.

Besides, according to reports from China, about 14% of people who recovered from this virus are getting ill again, which is again not like with seasonal flu, where people don't get infected repeatedly. The later repeated infection/or prolonged period during which recovered people may be shedding virus is something to be taken into consideration when estimating consequences.
Click to expand...

All good points.

These are the results of a huge epidemiological study out of China. The results have to be put into perspective, however. Are there hundreds of thousands if not millions of cases with no symptoms or only mild symptoms? That would bring the number of severe cases requiring hospitalization and the case fatality rate way down.

kUYb7tm.png
[/IMG]
 
Apparently there are cases in China of reinfected and a Chinese has infected her dog and if it is transmissible to dogs or other pets and other animals and vice versa this can be something even more serious if possible.
 
Carlos said:
Apparently there are cases in China of reinfected and a Chinese has infected her dog and if it is transmissible to dogs or other pets and other animals and vice versa this can be something even more serious if possible.
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Somehow, I don't think viruses can so easily jump from one species to another. Perhaps dog was just contaminated with the virus (like after licking his owner's face :0), rather than being a virus carrier himself. If this novel coronavirus can stay on surfaces for a long time (weeks) then perhaps it can "live" on pets likewise on other unanimated places. In any case WHO say that there is no evidence that dogs or cat can get infected.

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