First lets look at the issue of one population almost completely replacing another. Despite what proponents of invasion theories would like you to believe, this is an extremely rare event. The only proven cases are Europeans in North America/Argentina/Australia; and probably the Neanderthals in Europe.
We're not talking about complete replacement. Pre-Indo-European haplogroups still exist in Europe, they're just not dominant.
Please note we have very many examples of “failed replacement” – it is not an easy thing to do. The whites could not replace the indigenous populations in Africa, New Zealand, India, Indonesia or Mexico.
Funny that you mention Mexico...their Y-DNA is predominantly European, mostly varying types of R1b-M269. According to your theories, doesn't this mean they've been that way for thousands and thousands of years? It's impossible that people came from the east and R1b became so successful as to be the majority haplogroup, right?
Norman Conquest Etc etc. There is really very little genetic evidence of these conquests at any distance from source.
Considering the origin of the Normans, how would one differentiate them from the mixed Celtic/Germanic population of England?
More modern genocides – the Armenians and Turks, the Jews and Hitler, Rwanda, the various population replacements in Poland: not much genetic evidence.
I don't even know what to say to someone who thinks "there's not much genetic evidence for the Jewish Holocaust" is some kind of point. Sorry.
Personally I think Germanic speaking tribes were in England long before the Romans, who barely knew the difference between Celts and Germans. Plenty of Celtic DNA there anyway, the replacement is mostly cultural rather than genetic. Not proven.
U106 is rather obviously Germanic. Just look at a map of it. Seriously.
Given the absence of any sort of plausible comparable proven examples, anyone who wants to run any kind of invasion population replacement scenario has their work cut out for them. Anyone who wants show that a few savages from Scythia with a little bit of new technology and no diseases managed to replace the entire population of Western Europe fairly recently is seriously pushing the bounds of the credible.
Again, we're not talking about "complete replacement" in the sense of "Indo-Europeans literally killed everyone who wasn't Indo-European." No one is talking about that but you. If that's your best evidence against the scientific consensus and available data, it's not the rest of the world pushing the bounds of the credible.
While if the invasion hypothesis seems completely unbelievable – we have a new gradualist replacement theory stressing some sort of “natural process” in which a particular line is “extremely successful” either randomly or for social reasons. No-one would seriously have put this argument forward - – that a single man could have huge numbers of male-line descendants to the exclusion of others - until testing companies started plugging the “Genghis Khan” and “Nhiall” theories for commercial reasons.
The trouble is that while it appears to be an observable fact, it doesn’t match in with either any directly observed historical process or any simulation modelling we have done.
I think you forgot that you just mentioned Mexico. In five-hundred years, European Y haplogroups have become dominant. Yet you believe that the same would be impossible over thousands of years in western Europe. Bit illogical, isn't it? Contradictory?
Documented real cases expose the fallacy. For example, AbdulAziz Saud or others with large harems can have large numbers of sons (75) and grandsons, but that is about where it stops because cadet branches soon become ordinary members of society with few privileges. I have seen it estimated that there are 10 000 ibn Sauds dating from the founders in the 1700s, which is an awful lot but still only a tiny and now barely increasing fraction of the population.
Documented genetics expose the fallacious nature of your fallacy; by definition, all R men
are descended from a single individual, yet they dominate Europe and large swaths of the rest of the world.
Very many lines die out almost immediately, but with steady population growth once you reach about 20 male line descendants, your line will not die out but will increase in proportion with the general population. Europe’s population appears to have been growing steadily since the Bronze Age – the TMRCA to all the major branches of R1b date to there. We do not know why that is or why it was not growing before, given that agriculture is a lot older.
Simply put, it was not growing in Europe before because it wasn't in Europe long before. R1b wasn't common in western Europe during the Stone Age, and it didn't come from the middle east with agriculture. Your own modeling demonstrates the truth of this, but your insistence that it cannot be true keeps you from seeing the logical conclusion, IMO.
What the simulation results imply is that the haplotype structure of any large population group in Europe should be pretty much the same now as it was in the Bronze Age – with some small contribution from immigrants. If France is 58% R1b, 15% I, 7.5% E, 6% J2, 5.5% G; well that is close to what it was in the Bronze Age.
The Bronze Age, which saw the expansion of R1b into western Europe.
I know you have more coming, so I hope I'm not stepping on your toes when I boil our disagreements down to this:
You think that because R1b is so common in western Europe, it must have been there for tens of thousands of years.
I think that because we've no evidence of the R1b that dominates western Europe actually being in western Europe prior to a few thousand years ago, and the oldest R1b of that sort we
do have was found in an Indo-European culture in what's now Russia, and that we find successively younger clades of that R1b as we go further west, that it's entirely logical and evident that said R1b spread from Proto-Indo-European central Asia, westward into Europe. This would also explain the steppe ancestry common in western Europe, which I disagree is due to eastward migration from Europe. With dozens and dozens of Neolithic European remains having been tested, only one was R1b, and that R1b wasn't ancestral to any of the R1b that's so common in Europe today. Contrarily, almost all of the Yamnaya samples tested were M269.
I will, of course, revise my opinion if any evidence supportive of your theory ever actually turns up.