Politics Will Ukraine join EU?

[ElHorsto]

Based on my conversations with Ukranian immigrants to Canada, I doubt that many Ukranians would be willing to let the eastern half of their country rejoin Russia

Certainly, that's why I actually see some risk of civil war.

, even though it would probably be best for all concerned, and such a change might make it possible for the Ukraine to join the EU without too much trouble from Russia - that would really depend on what was happening in Russia. And I suspect that the Russians would like to have a free trade zone with the EU and close ties with Germany and France without formal EU membership, because formal EU membership would require further political integration, including perhaps eventual NATO membership. When the Germans and French think about what it would mean to have the Russians in NATO, or even in the EU in a political sense, I suspect they'd agree to a more informal arrangement on economic issues rather than having Russia in the EU. Just my opinion based on a view from a distance - I could be wrong.

Absolutely. Putin never considered EU membership, neither did the EU. It was all about partnership. Russia is just too big to be member in EU. But regarding NATO, ten years ago Putin issued during a TV interview the possibility that Russia would eventually join NATO. I guess this also went out of consideration meanwhile.

 

[matbir]

Two months after start of protests against Viktor Yanukovich foreign policy, Ukraine is mired in riots. The trigger for the demonstration was the refusal to sign an association agreement with the EU. Demonstrators take over government buildings in some cities and towns, it starting to look like civil war. Here are news. And map from Washington post:

 

[Coolboygcp]

I think that there are severals scenarios that may play out in Ukraine.

#1

Ukraine is divided, between a pro- European side, and a pro -Russian side. The pro-Europe side signs the AA, and eventually joins the EU. The pro-Russian side join the Russian Customs Union, and later joins the Eurasian Union.

#2

Elections are called immediately. The pro-Europe parties win, and form a new government, Yulia Tymoshenko is freed, and gets some sort of governmental position. Ukraine reforms, and decides to sign the AA with the EU. They forge closer ties with the EU, and eventually join it. Peace is restored, and the nation is happy.

#3

The protests turn into a civil war. The war lasts for years, and the nation turns into anarchy. The EU, NATO, and Russia intervene. This results in an international war. (This would be the worst scenario, but is likely if no reforms happen, and if elections are not called in the Ukraine).

#4

The current President holds power by attempting to crush the protests with military force. His actions shock the international community. He holds power, and does not have any new elections. He jails and (possibly) kills the opposition, and gets the country closer to Russia. The country becomes a dictatorship like Belarus.

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Honestly, my personal views are that the pro-Europe parties will win an early election, and that the country will right itself. I hope that they will sign the AA, and that they will one day join the EU.

So, I guess my answer to the original question is, yes, Ukraine should be a member of the EU when reforms are implemented.

 

[Aberdeen]

Look at the blue part of Matbir's map. Under which scenario will the people in that part of the Ukraine agree to your second scenario? They won't. Now look at a world map, and think about how a typical Russian strongman like Putin would feel about the Ukraine permanently tilting toward Europe. Sadly, the third scenario seems like the most probable.

 

[Anton Bear's den]

Should Ukraine be a member of EU?

The Western Republic of Galicia and Podolia must go in direction of EU since the people who live there really share the European values, their version from 30s of 20th century

While industrial Eastern Ukraine and Crimea should go in direction of Russian Federation

I think comrade Stalin made a huge mistake when united western Ukraine with eastern in 1939, Ukraine the country where the borderline between different civilizations is located.

 

[ElHorsto]

Germany is not eager to put one more bagger on its pay roll.

Who knows. Angela Merkel is currently more popular in Poland than in Germany.

 

[Coolboygcp]

I think that Ukraine should definitely become part of the EU. I think that once it bcomes more stable in a few months, it should send an application to apply for membership following the signing of the Association Agreement.

 

[Maleth]

Your opinion. Will Ukraine join EU?

Recent events will shed a new sense of emergency to move things forward, but it will still take several years as there will be lots to be done. Most difficult part will be that it has to get worst before it gets better when new reforms start getting in place. That will be a tough test.

 

[mihaitzateo]

They will join because this is what Angela Merkel wants.
I wonder whom will join first EU,Montenegro,Serbia or Ukraine?

 

[LeBrok]

They will join because this is what Angela Merkel wants.

In this one sentence you have ignored wishes of most Ukrainians, about 20 million people, who want to belong to EU. Can you be more, how should we say, fair and objective?

 

[Christiaan]

Finally they will, but it will take some patience and effort before this will happen. Corruption is the big problem in Ukraine and as long as that is not solved it will not be allowed to join the EU. The EU will not make the same mistake again like it did with other countries.

 

[Yetos]

I think that is must,

 

[albanopolis]

In this one sentence you have ignored wishes of most Ukrainians, about 20 million people, who wants to belong to EU. Can you be more, how should we say, fair and objective?

I think a more natural Union for Slavic countries would have been a Slavic Union. They share the genes, the language, the culture. Slavic countries in EU is an odd occurrence.
Ukraine is a European country as much as any other Slavic country is. But it will be unfair to Turks if Ukraine is admitted and Turkey is not. Accepting both of them it will be impossible for Europe. They both constitute 1/3 of today's Europe. There will be resistance in France, England and many other countries.
Privileged partnership is the most possible scenario to facilitate both.
That means Economically tied to Europe, politically independent. Without consent of Russia they will always have territorial problems which for Europe is a condition.
Russia will sabotage it anywhere they could.
Russia is a very influential country in EU. It matters economically and can not be ignored.

 

[LeBrok]

I think a more natural Union for Slavic countries would have been a Slavic Union. They share the genes, the language, the culture. Slavic countries in EU is an odd occurrence.
Ukraine is a European country as much as any other Slavic country is.

EU and other political unions are mostly about economy, economical help, cooperation and safety net. If it was about ethnical identity you would have seen unions based on it.

 

[Aberdeen]

I think a more natural Union for Slavic countries would have been a Slavic Union.
........

The Slavs used to have a Slavic Union. It was originally called the Russian Empire and, more recently, the Iron Curtain. But, for some unknown reason, Slavs outside Russia don't seem keen on repeating the experience.

 

[albanopolis]

EU and other political unions are mostly about economy, economical help, cooperation and safety net. If it was about ethnical identity you would have seen unions based on it.

I meant to provoke some reaction with the Slavic Union. Slavs are Europeans and as such the presence of Ukraine in it, is natural. But the outcome of a Ukrainian membership is not sure if the current situation continues for long.
The expansion of the EU is no longer desired by some countries,
But the privileged partnership is an option since it gives all the economic benefits of the union members minus political benefits.
The move of western powers was designed to take Ukraine away from Russian Yoke. But Ukraine can not abandon Russia for good. There are a thousand reasons Russia is vital for Ukrainian prosperity.

 

[LeBrok]

I meant to provoke some reaction with the Slavic Union. Slavs are Europeans and as such the presence of Ukraine in it, is natural. But the outcome of a Ukrainian membership is not sure if the current situation continues for long.
The expansion of the EU is no longer desired by some countries,
But the privileged partnership is an option since it gives all the economic benefits of the union members minus political benefits.
The move of western powers was designed to take Ukraine away from Russian Yoke. But Ukraine can not abandon Russia for good. There are a thousand reasons Russia is vital for Ukrainian prosperity.

Please again, don't disreguard wishes of most Ukrainians. They are the ones who decided to reach towards the west. Same as Poland, Czechs, Slovaks and other Slavs did before.

 

[LeBrok]

The Slavs used to have a Slavic Union. It was originally called the Russian Empire and, more recently, the Iron Curtain. But, for some unknown reason, Slavs outside Russia don't seem keen on repeating the experience.

Excelent point. What Russians called "union" was actually their empire. After 100 years of Empire and another 100 years of Soviet "Union" other Slavs had enough.

 

[albanopolis]

Actually the western Ukrainians are the one who aspire the Union. As you may know Eastern Ukraine is a lot more Russian inclined. Its not only the Russians that inhabit this region. Its also the Ukrainians that speak Russian. My educated estimate is that 15 to 20 million Ukrainians are firmly for Russian union.
Compared to Turkey Ukraine has a lot more advantages of getting in the union. The main advantage is the large numbers of Slavic countries currently members of the union that would campaign hard.
But membership is not guarantied.

 

[Ike]

The Slavs used to have a Slavic Union. It was originally called the Russian Empire and, more recently, the Iron Curtain. But, for some unknown reason, Slavs outside Russia don't seem keen on repeating the experience.

It is only for the reason that CIA is doping them with just enough money for them to feel their position had improved. If they would manage to get the Russia down, CIA would stop funding, and then we would see just how better they really are.