Politics Future of Greece

[Sile]

I prefer Greece to leave the EU and save itself, ...................but if the need is to retain it in the EU, then a change in something needs to happen. Maybe do like the danes and swedes do, they are in the EU but use their own currency.
or
the Swiss system, not in the EU, charge costs in Euro and pay in swiss-francs.

 

[ElHorsto]

Well, I certainly don't wish the Eurozone or any European country to fail, and neither does Friedman or any other American economic or political policy maker. It's in America's interest to have a prosperous Europe.

Sure, but at the same time also America has it's own wish of how Europe and Russia should be, that's normal.

He may be unduly pessimistic, but I don't see where, if you listen to the whole speech, you can find a flaw in his analysis of either European history or the Eurozone or how the Greek debt crisis should be handled.Also, nobody ever loses money being pessimistic about human behavior, and he is in the business of advising corporations and and wealthy people how to protect their assets.

I can tell you he speaks for many people in the markets. I realize it offends Europeans to hear it, and I apologize for that, but Americans have been wary of European fratricidal tendencies since the days of George Washington. It's also refreshing to hear the issues discussed with the kind of directness, clarity and no nonsense pragmatism which seem to me so sorely lacking in the expositions of continental European leaders.

To be brutally honest, I actually used to have more hope for Europe. Just one year of reading anthrofora disabused me of those notions. Scratch the surface and all that nonsense is still there.

As a European, I completely agree. Europe's 70 year anniversary of almost peace is an exception, and many seem to forget it. This success was due to the memory of the horrors of WW2 and the resulting care and pessimism. This memory is starting to fade again as war witnesses die. EURO-zone in particular might face similar problems like Yugoslavia in the 1980s: in crisis, every ethnicity starts to blame the other for Yugoslavia's/EU's problems. I'm not painting horror pictures, just pointing out some similarities. Many europeans believe that this could happen only in the Balkans (for genetic or whatever reasons), but this is a dangerous fallacy. Take for example Sweden and Denmark, the most peaceful countries of Europe today: they still hold the world record in number of mutual wars. And let's also not forget the extra-european migrants. No reason to be light-minded.

 

[Yetos]

Guys there 2 Friedman

1 Milton Friedman
2 george Friedman

 

[Yetos]

Yetos
I agree with Angela, monetary union without fiscal union cannot functioning properly. Common fiscal policies in Eurozone are necessary. Of course, you are right, is it require more centralization, yes, although solutions can be innovative. Fiscal union is logical path but not easy. Change should, among other things, redistribution spending from budgets countries members to the budget one currency union. It requires political decisions, not only economic. Countries members should be prepare for change and determined to carry it through to the end. If someone has vision of Federal Europe it requires much more things, but fiscal union is significant step forward.

Garrick Fiscal Union is something BIGGGG BUT ALSO DANGEROUSSS

THINK a fiscal Union corruption, or dept?

still need to be discused much much more,
Centralization in Europe is something that must not be done, we are doomed if such thing happens


EUROPE HAS STILL A LONG WAY AHEAD

 

[oriental]

There is a third Friedman - New York Times Columnist Tom Friedman who married a rich heiress and became a Neocon.

P.S. Milton Friedman, the right-wing Chicago economics professor is dead.

 

[Piro Ilir]

It is mostly plausible to people who are naturally drawn to such disastrous scenarios. It is more about personality than reality. The unhappiness and disagreements obviously is high in EU at the moment, but it is huge exaggeration to imagine that it can end up with conflicts, military altercation or even war.

To go from massacre, poverty and hatred of WW2 to European Union of many cooperating nations and ethnicities in less than 50 years was an extraordinary achievement and evolution of European psyche. Such tremendous transformation of Europe denotes very powerful and natural forces consolidating it. Forces which can't be undermined by, minor or not, inconvenience of some people of members. Forces like economic cooperation, free movements of goods, services and people, granting freedom of work and location to people of EU, equalizing social and economic developments of members. EU gives people a pride to belong to such powerful Union (not unlike US citizens). How anyone can even speculate that European Union can disintegrate due to economic hiccups, stagnation in some countries, possible bankruptcy of Greece, or due to a notion that Europeans couldn't create a perfect Union in short 25 years of its assistance? Things which are rather minor, fixable and adjustable in grand skim of things. Members are free to stay and free to go. New members come since the recession and nobody leaves. Heck, even the communist government of Greece wants to stay!
Paraphrasing Star Wars: "EU force is strong".:grin:

None knows what the hell is the European union. [emoji23] . Neither I [emoji23]

 

[Yetos]

It is mostly plausible to people who are naturally drawn to such disastrous scenarios. It is more about personality than reality. The unhappiness and disagreements obviously is high in EU at the moment, but it is huge exaggeration to imagine that it can end up with conflicts, military altercation or even war.

To go from massacre, poverty and hatred of WW2 to European Union of many cooperating nations and ethnicities in less than 50 years was an extraordinary achievement and evolution of European psyche. Such tremendous transformation of Europe denotes very powerful and natural forces consolidating it. Forces which can't be undermined by, minor or not, inconvenience of some people of members. Forces like economic cooperation, free movements of goods, services and people, granting freedom of work and location to people of EU, equalizing social and economic developments of members. EU gives people a pride to belong to such powerful Union (not unlike US citizens). How anyone can even speculate that European Union can disintegrate due to economic hiccups, stagnation in some countries, possible bankruptcy of Greece, or due to a notion that Europeans couldn't create a perfect Union in short 25 years of its assistance? Things which are rather minor, fixable and adjustable in grand skim of things. Members are free to stay and free to go. New members come since the recession and nobody leaves. Heck, even the communist government of Greece wants to stay!
Paraphrasing Star Wars: "EU force is strong".:grin:

hmm
No members are free to stay, but difficult to go, as difficult as to enter,
and do not look the ex-communistic countries,
that was a hurry-up process, and people there due to communism, had an inner solidarity, and a unification to leave away from whatever was communistic or Russian, so they accepted fast EU and adopted a new way of life,

there is no substractum on how to leave the Zone or the Community (Eurozone EEC)
neither there is a CARTA on how you can leave,

and the communist are not in power in Greece,
there is a lot of difference among radical Left and communists
THEY HATE EACH OTHER
the hate is so big that Golden dawn is more favour to each other than among them

one is kastro che
the other Marx lenin

 

[Piro Ilir]

1. He was talking about Europe, not just EU.
2. It is already happening (Macedonia, Ukraine, Greece is very close if it defaults like Argentina 2001)



That's all well and good, but my concern is not EU but the EURO, which is already showing it's failures that were predicted not only by Friedman.

EUR is ok, as long as Germany will support it.

 

[Piro Ilir]

USA and Europe are completely different issues. How many nations had constitute first American state, and how many the European Union. Too many nations in Europe. It's a big mess . They don't like each other

Well, I certainly don't wish the Eurozone or any European country to fail, and neither does Friedman or any other American economic or political policy maker. It's in America's interest to have a prosperous Europe. He may be unduly pessimistic, but I don't see where, if you listen to the whole speech, you can find a flaw in his analysis of either European history or the Eurozone or how the Greek debt crisis should be handled.Also, nobody ever loses money being pessimistic about human behavior, and he is in the business of advising corporations and and wealthy people how to protect their assets.

I can tell you he speaks for many people in the markets. I realize it offends Europeans to hear it, and I apologize for that, but Americans have been wary of European fratricidal tendencies since the days of George Washington. It's also refreshing to hear the issues discussed with the kind of directness, clarity and no nonsense pragmatism which seem to me so sorely lacking in the expositions of continental European leaders.

To be brutally honest, I actually used to have more hope for Europe. Just one year of reading anthrofora disabused me of those notions. Scratch the surface and all that nonsense is still there.

 

[Garrick]

None knows what the hell is the European union. . Neither I

European Union is not hell, on contrary, it is realization of centuries-old aspirations of people of Europe.

After all, Albania received enormous assistance from the European Union to skip backwardness.

 

[Piro Ilir]

I prefer Greece to leave the EU and save itself, ...................but if the need is to retain it in the EU, then a change in something needs to happen. Maybe do like the danes and swedes do, they are in the EU but use their own currency.
or
the Swiss system, not in the EU, charge costs in Euro and pay in swiss-francs.

Greeks will never leave the EU. Because they need the EU financing of their country. If they leave, they can't hold the high and healthy standard of lifestyle . I doubt you are sincere here [emoji57]

 

[Taranis]

Yes, he possibly also expresses his wishful thoughts. I don't take him serious in that sense to believe his predictions. I hope he will be wrong again. But it is still very interesting, because he is respected and Stratfor is market leader. And some of what he says is still plausible. The risk of conflicts has obviously increased as EURO-countries start to blame each-other.

In my opinion, it is entirely wishful thinking on his end. And I think so because he was wrong in 1991, he was even more wrong in 2009, why should this trend change? The two quarreling European countries par excellence of the first half of the 20th century, France and Germany are both in the EU, in NATO, in the Schengen treaty, etc. To make things further, Germany of today, while economically formidable, is military neutered (in part by the treaty unified Germany had to sign with the four old occupational powers). The same applies for the other EU members. In so far, I don't see any conflict to spark from within the EU. If there's any danger of war brewing in Europe, it is at the EU/Russian interface (especially with light to the events in the Ukraine), and even that I don't hold that for particularly likely.

EDIT: And to save his honour, making predictions is always difficult, especially concerning the future. Most famous stock market predictors are also wrong most of the time. Yet their underlying arguments can be fundamentally sound. It's that reality remains chaotic to a large extent, regardless how good you analyze. But yes, at least his predictions for 2050 are most likely pure marketing buzz.

Honestly, in my opinion Friedman is about as a reliable source for predictions as reading tarot cards. Heck, even Gerhard Schröder was more accurately able to 'predict' the future back in 2003 by saying going into Iraq because of WMDs which may or may not be there would be a really bad idea...

 

[ElHorsto]

In my opinion, it is entirely wishful thinking on his end. And I think so because he was wrong in 1991, he was even more wrong in 2009, why should this trend change? The two quarreling European countries par excellence of the first half of the 20th century, France and Germany are both in the EU, in NATO, in the Schengen treaty, etc. To make things further, Germany of today, while economically formidable, is military neutered (in part by the treaty unified Germany had to sign with the four old occupational powers). The same applies for the other EU members. In so far, I don't see any conflict to spark from within the EU. If there's any danger of war brewing in Europe, it is at the EU/Russian interface (especially with light to the events in the Ukraine), and even that I don't hold that for particularly likely.

I'm nowhere suggesting that Germany might become a military threat. I even doubt that Germany is acting politically only in it's own interest, but that is a different topic.
You are right with respect to NATO in the EU. And yes, the EU-Russian (more NATO-Russian) interface is the hotspot currently.
But the EURO is stirring-up all old resentiments due to the economic imbalances it creates. I'm not saying that the EURO stirrs wars tomorrow, but it clearly has the potential to create foundation for serious conflicts 10-20 years in future. A rigid EU-regime can suppress it like the USSR did, but this is a time play. Think of Versailles, how many years it took until the desire for revenge came to the surface. Another way to suppress animosities is a common enemy.

Honestly, in my opinion Friedman is about as a reliable source for predictions as reading tarot cards. Heck, even Gerhard Schröder was more accurately able to 'predict' the future back in 2003 by saying going into Iraq because of WMDs which may or may not be there would be a really bad idea...

As I said, we can skip his predictions. But his analyses of the past and present are worth listening to.

 

[Yetos]

LATE NIGHT DANCING AT ATHENS

come on guys where the HELL you can have such fun, only in HELLas

 

[Maleth]

To go from massacre, poverty and hatred of WW2 to European Union of many cooperating nations and ethnicities in less than 50 years was an extraordinary achievement and evolution of European psyche.

we thank technology for having prove and reminders of where Europe is coming from only just a few decades ago. Pity we dont have the same for the misery and chaos on many occasions in the thousand years that preceded that. Maybe we should stop romanticising history documentary's and movies and focus more on the realities of pique, the very few privileged that could afford to portrait themselves in paintings and the real hardship that most people had to go through.

 

[bicicleur 2]

hmm
No members are free to stay, but difficult to go, as difficult as to enter,
and do not look the ex-communistic countries,
that was a hurry-up process, and people there due to communism, had an inner solidarity, and a unification to leave away from whatever was communistic or Russian, so they accepted fast EU and adopted a new way of life,

there is no substractum on how to leave the Zone or the Community (Eurozone EEC)
neither there is a CARTA on how you can leave,

and the communist are not in power in Greece,
there is a lot of difference among radical Left and communists
THEY HATE EACH OTHER
the hate is so big that Golden dawn is more favour to each other than among them

one is kastro che
the other Marx lenin

so many small parties in Greece
to me - from the outside - they are all the same

 

[bicicleur 2]

LATE NIGHT DANCING AT ATHENS

come on guys where the HELL you can have such fun, only in HELLas

i think the party is over

 

[Garrick]

Garrick Fiscal Union is something BIGGGG BUT ALSO DANGEROUSSS

THINK a fiscal Union corruption, or dept?

still need to be discused much much more,
Centralization in Europe is something that must not be done, we are doomed if such thing happens


EUROPE HAS STILL A LONG WAY AHEAD

Every system has advantages and disadvantages, ideal system doesn't exist.

Still all things summed and subtracted, Fiscal union is better solution.

For long-term recovery Euro zone and saving the currency - euro, Fiscal union is probably only real solution.

For corruption, Balkan countries are high in the list, leading Albania, Kosovo and Bosnia, but other Balkan countries, including Serbia and other ex YU are not far.

I think, it is much better for corruption that strict control exists at the level of large entity.

Just the awareness that there is a control on the level of large entity (Euro zone; EU) has a positive effect on reducing corruption.

And not only corruption, for example better control at the level of larger entity means preventing making large costs by countries members and amounts numbers above permitted, limited capacities and the economy of a country, and established strict rules at the level of larger entity.

Fiscal union can be regulated by rules established by countries members, it is not negation of democracy, but reinforcement of democracy and the prohibition of abuse by governments which are irresponsible.

 

[bicicleur 2]

first thing to do in Europe is reduce the number of politicians drastically
to many intermediate governing levels
to many overlapping structures
to many commitees
to many rulers in their own small empire
we don't need new structures
we need to break down the unnecessary structures first

civilians should feel again they have their own faith in hands, and don't have to rely on government for everything
I think that is the main difference with America

 

[Yetos]

first thing to do in Europe is reduce the number of politicians drastically
to many intermediate governing levels
to many overlapping structures
to many commitees
to many rulers in their own small empire
we don't need new structures
we need to break down the unnecessary structures first

civilians should feel again they have their own faith in hands, and don't have to rely on government for everything
I think that is the main difference with America

just cut their sallaries at half,
they will be reduced automatically,
Every one wants to save us and take glory, :useless:
but not without the 'price' :innocent:


I think the 'old' punishments must return, and judgess must hunt politicians and parties more than simple civilians,
either we are facing a 'trust', as Kropotkin started his theory,
anyway I am not an anarchist, but we must secure as civilians and as humans that no such trust will exist