Genetic study A genetic history of the Balkans from Roman frontier to Slavic migrations

I forgot to remove the

Slavic:Czech_Medieval:I20515,0.124067,0.132019,0.06675,0.08075,0.046778,0.031794,0.009165,0.010846,0.002863,-0.031162,-0.003735,-0.015286,0.019177,0.018029,-0.017372,-0.00716,0.004303,0.000633,-0.006913,0.004752,-0.010232,0.002226,0.005793,-0.003012,0.002275

ignore it for now, but the Timacum Kuline one, looks like a West Balkans and Slavic mixture and he is from 800-900, so, it could make sense.

This is mine, btw


Target: Hawk_scaled
Distance: 1.7738% / 0.01773791
32.8CentralBalkansIA
24.4East-BalkansIA
18.0Slavic
14.6Western_BalkansIA
10.2AnatolianIA
 
It has been an argument of mine that especially R1b-L2 might have been pervasive in the interior of Western Balkans, accompanied by R1b-U152, G2a and various clades of I2a. It is pure speculation, of course, but I wouldn't discard it as implausible reasoning. The interior of the Western Balkans is poorly investigated. We know very little about the Illyrians and which of the so far studied samples can be attributed to them. J-L283 seems to dominate among the few samples that have been examined but they strike me as a coastal phenomenon and they appear to be very similar to the samples identified with the Liburnians who were not Illyrians.

I wonder how Thracian E-V13 actually is. It's a pre-Thracian haplogroup that became so widespread due to a founder effect. The Thracian language bears some interesting similarities to Baltic. You say that the Thracians had their colonies in the North and East carpathian sphere but it's more likely that the proto-Thracians came from there. They might have brought some E-V13 with them but the bulk of it was absorbed in the southeastern Balkans. Similarly, the Illyrians (whoever they were) absorbed J-L283 but there is a lot of work to be done until we can speculate about the proto-Illyrians with some confidence.

I made the same mistake before, but you are missusing, what's proto for you?

Because for me, it means if classic Illyrians are J2b2-L283 mostly and classic Thracians are E-V13 predominantly, then how we arrive at protos is through reverse engineering. Language shifts happened all the time, and probably in very very dynamic way.
 
These are from Timacum, graves supposed to be either Dalmatian or Dardanian Numeri


Code:
Serbia_TimacumSlog:I15546_J-L283,0.126344,0.152329,0.012068,-0.021964,0.027082,-0.015339,0.00094,0.001615,0.011658,0.024966,-0.002761,0.014537,-0.010406,-0.021332,-0.014386,-0.002254,0.007823,0.00076,0.006411,-0.012631,-0.004866,0.008903,0.001356,0.00253,-0.001197
Serbia_TimacumSlog:I15544_E-V13,0.12862,0.155376,0.018102,-0.027132,0.023081,-0.014223,0.009635,-0.002769,0.009204,0.025878,0.000162,0.012739,-0.015312,-0.005092,-0.017101,-0.0179,0.007171,-0.006334,0.004525,-0.008629,-0.010606,0.007666,-0.000123,0.00482,-0.003832
Serbia_TimacumSlog:I15548_J-L283,0.129758,0.149283,0.021873,-0.013243,0.040623,-0.005299,0.00423,0.002077,0.00634,0.027518,0.005034,-0.002398,-0.013825,0.015276,-0.018458,-0.019888,0.001956,0.003421,0.009302,-0.018134,-0.010731,-0.00643,-0.000863,-0.001205,-0.006227
Serbia_TimacumSlog:I15551_R-Z2105,0.108132,0.152329,-0.04978,-0.083334,-0.011079,-0.029841,-0.00188,-0.007846,0.000205,0.005285,-0.002111,0.003147,0.002825,0.018304,-0.017101,0.002519,-0.011604,-0.002027,0.010182,0.001126,-0.005241,0,0.0053,-0.002651,-0.003473
Serbia_TimacumSlog:I15552_R-CTS1450,0.129758,0.146236,0.035449,0.011951,0.030467,0.001394,-0.000235,-0.001154,0.01268,0.02442,0.002111,0.006594,-0.004608,-0.015689,-0.002579,0.001989,0.01004,0.009122,0.006536,0.001626,0.004492,0.005812,0.006162,0.002651,0.001676
Serbia_TimacumSlog:I15553_E-V13,0.117238,0.14319,0.021873,-0.020349,0.024312,-0.013945,-0.001645,0.004615,0.002863,0.017677,0.004872,0.001798,-0.01115,-0.009771,-0.023208,-0.005967,0.004955,-0.010895,0.010936,-0.006753,-0.003619,0.007666,-0.002218,0.000964,-0.005987

Distance to:Serbia_TimacumSlog:I15553_E-V13
0.02424396Albania_BA_IA:I16251
0.02909374Croatia_Tilurium_Roman.SG:R3544.SG
0.02941241Montenegro_MLBA:I13169
0.02952769Hungary_Langobard_o1:SZ37
0.03013752Greece_Logkas_MBA.SG:Log02.SG
0.03099523Hungary_LaTene:I18493
0.03103931Hungary_Conqueror_Commoner:HMSZ-86.SG
0.03139158Hungary_LateAvar:SZKT-265.SG
0.03163882Montenegro_MLBA:I13775
0.03282563Hungary_LateAvar:HH-10.SG
0.03341385Italy_TarquiniaMonterozzi_IA.SG:R10343.SG
0.03341941Hungary_Conqueror_Elite:K2-33.SG
0.03342127Slovenia_Emona_Roman.SG:R10467.SG
0.03366624Austria_Klosterneuburg_Roman_oLevant.SG:R10654.SG
0.03413261Hungary_MidAvar:HH-102.SG
0.03415675Montenegro_MLBA:I13167
0.03440191Hungary_MidAvar:SSD-144.SG
0.03442973Hungary_Langobard_o1.SG:SZ36.SG
0.03447107Macedonia_IA:I10388
0.03468967Hungary_Conqueror_Commoner:HMSZ-5.SG
0.03482547Croatia_Popova_CA.SG:pOP39_noUDG.SG
0.03502460Croatia_Zadar_Roman.SG:R3744.SG
0.03509712Italy_Lazio_Viterbo_EarlyMedieval:TAQ022
0.03513948Hungary_EIA_Prescythian_Mezocsat:I11683
0.03515294Albania_Medieval:I14622


Distance to:Serbia_TimacumSlog:I15552_R-CTS1450
0.02650241Croatia_MLBA:I18087
0.02827927Hungary_Conqueror_Elite:KH-596.SG
0.02855628Czech_BellBeaker:I4885
0.02865325Slovenia_EIA:I5691
0.02867347Croatia_MLBA:I18077
0.02882334Italy_North_EarlyMedieval_Langobards_2:CL94
0.02922729Serbia_Mokrin_EBA_Maros:I23206
0.02977830Slovenia_MBA:I5695
0.03047296Hungary_MidAvar:TMH-388.SG
0.03075130Slovakia_TesarkeMlynany_Germanic_MigrationPeriod.SG:R2210.SG
0.03099144Germany_Lech_BellBeaker:I5520
0.03114296England_Viking.SG:VK146_noUDG.SG
0.03120274Croatia_EIA:I24638
0.03130918Croatia_MLBA:I18082
0.03147472Croatia_EIA:I24882
0.03152286Croatia_EIA:I23995
0.03159597Croatia_EIA:I5729
0.03176893Croatia_MBA:I24342
0.03177651Germany_AltInden_Saxon_EMedieval:IND012.A_noUDG
0.03184809Hungary_Conqueror_Commoner:VPB-588.SG
0.03195978Italy_LA_o1CentralEuropean.SG:R108.SG
0.03213152Italy_Sicily_EBA_o2:I11443
0.03219770Hungary_MidAvar:TMH-756.SG
0.03227181Serbia_Mokrin_EBA_Maros.SG:MOK20.SG
0.03234637Croatia_MBA:I26893


Distance to:Serbia_TimacumSlog:I15551_R-Z2105
0.02913242Turkey_Alalakh_MLBA:ALA002
0.03362542Turkey_Alalakh_MLBA:ALA095
0.03476770Turkey_Arslantepe_LateC:ART015
0.03533058Turkey_Alalakh_MLBA:ALA004
0.03577605Italy_Imperial.SG:R38.SG
0.03598544Turkey_Alalakh_MLBA:ALA008
0.03634237Turkey_Alalakh_MLBA:ALA025
0.03643928Lebanon_IA3.SG:SFI-36_noUDG.SG
0.03676177Syria_Ebla_EMBA:ETM014
0.03693697Turkey_Alalakh_MLBA:ALA039
0.03725312Turkey_WestByzantine:I8371
0.03783086Turkey_TellAtchana_MLBA:ALA120
0.03839982Turkey_Alalakh_MLBA:ALA015
0.03847186Turkey_Alalakh_MLBA:ALA029
0.03858275Macedonia_Classical_Hellenistic_o:I10392
0.03859573Turkey_MBA:I14762
0.03888026Italy_Imperial_o4.SG:R70.SG
0.03910072Turkey_MBA:I14784
0.03917440Turkey_Alalakh_MLBA:ALA020
0.03937169Turkey_Roman_5:I20139
0.03946773Turkey_LateC_EBA:I4480
0.03977218Turkey_Alalakh_MLBA:ALA013
0.04014323Serbia_Viminacium_Roman_elite_2.SG:R6750.SG
0.04015180Turkey_SoutheastByzantine:I4474
0.04059555Turkey_TellAtchana_MLBA:ALA123


Distance to:Serbia_TimacumSlog:I15548_J-L283
0.03219996Hungary_LaTene:I18493
0.03270147Serbia_SvilosKrussevlje_Roman.SG:R6701.SG
0.03398005Serbia_BA_Maros:I17913
0.03401683Croatia_BA:I18712
0.03417830Montenegro_MLBA:I13172
0.03663720Hungary_EarlyAvar:MS-43.SG
0.03710239Slovenia_Emona_Roman.SG:R10467.SG
0.03716641Albania_Medieval:I13839
0.03720119Greece_Logkas_MBA.SG:Log02.SG
0.03727168Hungary_LateAvar:SZKT-265.SG
0.03732423Hungary_EarlyMidAvar:ALT-77.SG
0.03735635Macedonia_Classical_Hellenistic:I10390
0.03737009Italy_TarquiniaMonterozzi_IA.SG:R10343.SG
0.03753196Croatia_Zadar_Roman.SG:R3743.SG
0.03757060Hungary_EIA_Prescythian_Mezocsat:I11683
0.03785307Macedonia_Classical_Hellenistic:I10391
0.03787460Italy_LA_o1CentralEuropean.SG:R33.SG
0.03835279Italy_IA_Republic_o.SG:R1.SG
0.03837850Croatia_Zadar_Roman.SG:R3745.SG
0.03845917Hungary_IA_Syrmian_SremGroup:I18259
0.03856131Hungary_EIA:I25507
0.03912522Croatia_EIA:I23996
0.03919166Hungary_LaTene:I18491
0.03928007Hungary_EarlyAvar:MM-131.SG
0.03936341Serbia_Mokrin_EBA_Maros:I23205


Distance to:Serbia_TimacumSlog:I15544_E-V13
0.02655279Macedonia_IA:I10388
0.02663115Greece_Logkas_MBA.SG:Log02.SG
0.02861187Macedonia_BA:I7231
0.02888089Albania_Medieval:I13839
0.02928696Hungary_EarlyAvar:MM-131.SG
0.03027352Slovenia_Emona_Roman.SG:R10467.SG
0.03047061Macedonia_Classical_Hellenistic:I10390
0.03059414Montenegro_Doclea_Roman_oAegean.SG:R3481.SG
0.03068857Hungary_MidAvar:SSD-198.SG
0.03079352Croatia_Zadar_Roman.SG:R3743.SG
0.03108922Serbia_Sirmium_Roman.SG:R6730.SG
0.03120763Albania_BA_IA:I14688
0.03175576Italy_TarquiniaMonterozzi_IA.SG:R10343.SG
0.03183004Croatia_MirineFulfinum_Roman.SG:R2051.SG
0.03200169Croatia_Tilurium_Roman.SG:R3544.SG
0.03241037Hungary_MidAvar:SZK-83.SG
0.03242593Montenegro_MLBA:I13169
0.03246946Croatia_MBA:I5074
0.03258608Hungary_EIA_Prescythian_Mezocsat:I11683
0.03290180Austria_Klosterneuburg_Roman_oLevant.SG:R10654.SG
0.03331177Italy_Tuscany_Siena_EarlyMedieval:ETR013
0.03350516Albania_Medieval:I14622
0.03362700Hungary_Langobard_o1.SG:SZ43.SG
0.03364782Hungary_LaTene:I18493
0.03404235Croatia_Popova_CA.SG:pOP39_noUDG.SG


Distance to:Serbia_TimacumSlog:I15546_J-L283
0.02589835Austria_Klosterneuburg_Roman_oLevant.SG:R10654.SG
0.02604119Macedonia_IA:I10388
0.02777393Albania_BA_IA:I16251
0.02826005Montenegro_MLBA:I13167
0.02972662Hungary_MidAvar:SZK-83.SG
0.02984465Montenegro_MLBA:I13775
0.02998178Macedonia_BA:I7231
0.03112362Italy_TarquiniaMonterozzi_IA.SG:R10343.SG
0.03145956Hungary_Langobard_o1.SG:SZ43.SG
0.03189201Hungary_EarlyAvar:MM-131.SG
0.03201188Montenegro_MLBA:I13169
0.03245651Croatia_Zadar_Roman.SG:R3744.SG
0.03260161Croatia_Tilurium_Roman.SG:R3543.SG
0.03359064Croatia_LBA_EIA:I26742
0.03371485Slovenia_Emona_Roman.SG:R10467.SG
0.03376940Croatia_Zadar_Roman.SG:R3747.SG
0.03395558Hungary_Conqueror_Commoner:HMSZ-5.SG
0.03405101Croatia_Tilurium_Roman.SG:R3544.SG
0.03420078Croatia_Popova_CA.SG:pOP39_noUDG.SG
0.03433456Albania_Medieval:I13839
0.03458209Greece_Logkas_MBA.SG:Log02.SG
0.03475369Hungary_Langobard_o1:SZ32
0.03517757Serbia_Sirmium_Roman.SG:R6730.SG
0.03519516Croatia_SisakPogorelec_Roman.SG:R2041.SG
0.03546986Italy_Lazio_Viterbo_EarlyMedieval:TAQ022
 
Serbia_TimacumSlog:I15551_R-Z2105 looks weird autosomally. IDK, maybe an anomaly among other R1b-Z2105. Probably this is the sample the paper was talking, Near Eastern autosomally.
 
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So the new study pretty much confirms what we already knew

1) Significant ancient Western Anatolian/Greco-Anatolian input during Late Antiquity which exists to an extent till nowadays. This was the profile of Hellenistic, Roman and Byzantine western Anatolia and it exists almost identical in modern Dodecanese region, and to a large extent in the rest of Aegean Islanders and Maniots. Mainland Greece is a combo of this profile + modern Balkans to different ratios depending the region while Cyprus is ancient Western Anatolian + Levantine. Interestingly this study indicates that a bit of this kind of ancestry exists in the rest of the Balkans as well.

2) The Slavic input is significant even in non-Slavic south Balkan countries (Albania and Greece). I don't know if the percentages are 100% accurate (for example I would expect 25% instead of 30% Slavic input in Peloponnese) but 5% more or less does not make a change on the big picture. The demographic impact of the Slavs was big in the whole region of the Balkans.

3) E-V13 seems for one more time a haplogroup of the ancient central and eastern Balkans whose frequency became lower in many parts of Balkans after the Slavic invasions. It survived in very high frequencies in Albania (high Daco-Thracian related ancestry) and partly in mainland Greece (Hellenized south Thracians during late Hellenistic and Roman era, medieval Vlach and later Arvanite migrations)
It didn't "confirm" what we "already knew", unless by "we" you mean mattoids from anthrogenica and other delusional individuals.
I have grown accustomed to cr*p being published but I shan't pretend it is good scholarship. If you think that I am too harsh go take a look at their qpAdm models: Cretans, who are mostly similar to south Peloponnesians, are modelled as having literally more ancestry from Ottoman Turks than ancient Greek ancestry which is literally zero (even if we are to take the "western anatolian" as a mix of Greeks and older Anatolian_BA-like Anatolians it would still make a 35% contribution from western Anatolia and oddly enough such a profile would have spread quite uniformly all over the Balkans). and the 20% Slavic is quite ridiculous.
What is most laughworthy though is that by PCA position AND distal ancestry proxy modelling (so I don't take PCA at face values as the only basis of my skepticism) southern Europeans are mostly similar to their respective ancestors, with Cretans and southern Peloponnesians being literally a hair above ancient Greek samples on the PCA- exactly as you'd expect if those populations have negligible Slavic input-, to take an example, but such similarities/affinities are owed to very coincidental and fortuitous mixing of both "southern" and "northern" sources. Of course such models aren't then checked out against haplogroups, f4/f3 stats, etc...
It is the same idiocy I saw with the Etruscan paper or the upcoming paper from north Italy according to which north Italians "happen" to be similar from Italics from north Italy thanks to a very fortuitous mixing of both "southern" and "northern" sources- which turns out to be 20% "east med", however it is defined, 20% Germanic and the remaining 60% Italic, so literally equal amounts of both which very conveniently "cancel each other out".

I have also many suspicions about the representativity of the Dodecanese samples, since in older papers they were basically identical to Cretans, https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1320811111 , https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ahg.12328 , and on top of that the paper on Peloponnesians, this https://www.nature.com/articles/ejhg201718 , has western anatolian Greeks mostly similar to Peloponnesian ones, so I wonder whether these Dodecanesian samples are from descendents of more recent arrivals whose genetic profile is being taken as representative of the whole dodecanese and projected very back in time- and it does seem to me there's too much heterogeneity for samples from a tiny island if they are all from locals whose ancestry dates back to the hellenistic period without significant further contributions.
 
Taken this very simplistic calculator for now:


Code:
Western_BalkansIA:Albania_BA_IA:I14688,0.119514,0.160454,0.02225,-0.028101,0.024312,-0.017012,0.00141,-0.001385,-0.001841,0.024237,0.001137,0.008243,-0.019326,-0.003028,-0.007193,-0.016176,-0.008736,0.003674,0.003645,-0.004502,-0.013726,0.009645,-0.001849,0.011809,-0.011855
Western_BalkansIA:Albania_BA_IA:I14690,0.12862,0.146236,0.036958,-0.010982,0.032621,-0.006136,0.00047,0.001846,0.002659,0.018588,0.006171,0.003597,-0.017691,-0.00578,-0.004343,0.00053,0.007171,0.000507,0.004525,-0.00025,-0.012228,0.000247,0.003204,-0.002169,-0.002874
Western_BalkansIA:Albania_BA_IA:I14692,0.126344,0.15436,0.02489,-0.012597,0.022158,-0.001673,-0.007285,0.002077,0.003681,0.028247,0.008282,0.01094,-0.019921,-0.001789,-0.010993,-0.007558,0.008084,-0.00114,0.008799,-0.005753,-0.010731,-0.001607,0.001725,0.01205,0.002155
Western_BalkansIA:Albania_BA_IA:I16251,0.124067,0.141159,0.01697,-0.017119,0.025851,-0.005857,0.00235,0.007615,0.003068,0.023508,0.002436,0.003897,-0.01888,-0.017891,-0.011808,-0.00358,0.008996,-0.004561,0.007793,-0.010005,-0.002995,0.008779,-0.00456,-0.002892,-0.008263
Western_BalkansIA:Albania_BA_IA:I16254,0.117238,0.159438,0.036204,-0.009367,0.030467,-0.013108,0.00799,-0.014076,-0.009204,0.033896,-0.002923,0.002248,-0.018731,-0.006744,-0.013436,-0.005038,0.019297,-0.00038,-0.010936,-0.014257,-0.00574,-0.002473,-0.011955,0.010845,-0.008502
Western_BalkansIA:Albania_IA:I16253,0.132035,0.156392,0.034695,-0.011628,0.035083,-0.001952,0.00329,0.000692,0.002659,0.031345,0.008607,0.016785,-0.023934,-0.004404,-0.013572,0.000663,0.011865,0.006714,0.011313,-0.010005,-0.007736,-0.000371,-0.002588,0.007832,-0.007784
East-BalkansIA:Thracian:Bulgaria_EIA:I19481,0.119514,0.161469,0.012068,-0.054264,0.027082,-0.013108,-0.013866,0.000923,0.01493,0.040092,0.024845,0.005845,-0.011001,0.003853,-0.020494,-0.033015,-0.00678,0.00228,-0.000126,-0.016883,-0.008984,0.008779,0.00456,-0.004699,0.002634
East-BalkansIA:Thracian:Bulgaria_EIA:I20180,0.117238,0.167562,0.007542,-0.063308,0.035391,-0.02259,0.003055,-0.005307,0.010226,0.046106,0.000812,0.001199,-0.013082,0.001651,-0.020629,-0.01843,-0.00691,-0.001267,0.001006,-0.014382,-0.011979,-0.001113,-0.002342,-0.006868,-0.011616
East-BalkansIA:Thracian:Bulgaria_EIA:I20181,0.119514,0.158423,0.007542,-0.040375,0.03416,-0.024821,-0.004465,-0.003923,0.015953,0.042279,0.001137,0.004646,-0.022894,0.004679,-0.013165,0.000796,0.030119,0.007981,0.015964,-0.007629,-0.007986,0.002226,-0.006162,0.003494,-0.015807
East-BalkansIA:Thracian:Bulgaria_EIA:I20183,0.120652,0.164516,0.013576,-0.042636,0.033545,-0.020359,0.003995,-0.001846,0.015339,0.048293,-0.000162,0.013188,-0.011893,-0.002615,-0.029587,0.003182,0.021513,0.00228,0.008422,-0.002126,-0.009733,-0.004575,0.002342,0.005061,-0.007784
East-BalkansIA:Thracian:Bulgaria_EIA:I20184,0.113823,0.171624,0.008674,-0.060078,0.02739,-0.026216,-0.00047,0.000692,0.016975,0.052666,-0.001949,0.009591,-0.027502,0.005092,-0.023072,-0.022673,0.001434,0.002787,0.011187,-0.016383,-0.01722,0.001607,-0.002342,0.001687,-0.000599
East-BalkansIA:Thracian:Bulgaria_EIA:I20185,0.124067,0.158423,0.008674,-0.052972,0.034468,-0.031794,0.004935,-0.004846,0.007158,0.045923,0.008282,0.014537,-0.015609,-0.006606,-0.03013,-0.011138,0.009388,0.006208,0.011941,-0.008129,-0.008235,0.004575,0.000616,0.001566,-0.003592
East-BalkansIA:Thracian:Bulgaria_EIA:I20186,0.121791,0.155376,0.00792,-0.060401,0.03139,-0.026774,0.00705,-0.004615,0.007158,0.043554,0.003897,0.008243,-0.018583,0.006881,-0.026465,-0.016441,0.001956,0.005068,0.012067,-0.016008,-0.011355,0.004204,-0.002835,0.001325,-0.001197
East-BalkansIA:Thracian:Bulgaria_IA:I5769,0.125205,0.158423,0.006034,-0.052972,0.031698,-0.02259,0.004465,-0.000231,0.00859,0.032802,0.002598,0.005095,-0.01442,-0.002064,-0.016422,-0.001458,0.012126,0.004941,0.004777,-0.013256,-0.006613,0.000989,-0.004314,0.003615,-0.011256
East-BalkansIA:Thracian:Bulgaria_LIA:I19500,0.117238,0.1635,0.003017,-0.053618,0.022466,-0.009482,-0.00329,-0.002077,0.00225,0.032438,0.004384,0.008692,-0.016501,0.002064,-0.020222,-0.023071,0.002608,0.005574,0.013827,-0.006253,-0.004492,0.011252,-0.005053,0.006507,-0.006706
Western_BalkansIA:Croatia_EIA:I5723,0.124067,0.153345,0.04186,-0.002584,0.047393,-0.003068,-0.002115,-0.004154,0.008385,0.031345,0.00065,0.002847,-0.020367,-0.003028,-0.007057,0.000928,-0.000391,0.003167,0.008296,0.009254,-0.006114,0.005935,-0.001725,-0.001205,0.000718
Western_BalkansIA:Croatia_EIA:I5724,0.126344,0.151314,0.029038,0.009044,0.035083,-0.008088,0.00423,0.002769,0.022089,0.028976,-0.003085,0.008243,-0.008474,-0.004817,-0.009365,0.001061,-0.003651,0.006714,0.009553,-0.004127,-0.009858,0.00779,0.001602,-0.006266,-0.00467
Western_BalkansIA:Croatia_EIA:I5725,0.1161,0.14319,0.04186,0.006783,0.046778,0.00502,-0.0047,-0.000692,0.012476,0.023508,-0.002761,0.01139,-0.004311,-0.010872,-0.001221,-0.003447,0.002738,0.007221,-0.001885,0.002126,-0.002496,0.00371,-0.006655,-0.005061,0.002395
Western_BalkansIA:Croatia_EIA:I5726,0.120652,0.152329,0.039221,0,0.036622,-0.00502,-0.00141,0.001154,0.012885,0.025878,-0.002598,0.004196,-0.007284,-0.016928,-0.000814,0.015911,0.022035,-0.001394,-0.002514,0.000125,0.001123,-0.001113,-0.008627,0.003735,-0.006347
Western_BalkansIA:Croatia_EIA:I5727,0.126344,0.132019,0.048271,0.026486,0.040007,0.004462,0.00188,0.001615,0.010635,0.013303,-0.001786,-0.00015,0,-0.000413,-0.005429,-0.00305,-0.004433,0.002407,0.002011,0.000375,-0.000374,-0.004451,-0.005423,-0.007832,-0.003113
Western_BalkansIA:Croatia_EIA:I5728,0.121791,0.151314,0.042992,-0.001938,0.042469,-0.009203,-0.00376,0.003,0.019634,0.027335,-0.002111,0.009591,-0.011744,-0.001376,0.005157,-0.011403,-0.011343,-0.00038,0.000377,-0.002751,-0.003993,0.013973,-0.007765,0.003133,-0.007305
Western_BalkansIA:Croatia_EIA:I5729,0.127482,0.150298,0.042238,-0.000646,0.029544,0.006972,0.006815,-0.002538,0.012885,0.029158,-0.000974,0.008692,-0.019772,-0.007294,-0.003393,-0.001591,0.00326,0.005574,0.001257,0.000625,-0.003993,-0.001484,-0.000616,-0.000964,-0.006466
Western_BalkansIA:Croatia_EIA:I23904,0.120652,0.144205,0.030924,-0.008721,0.026159,0.001116,-0.000705,0.010846,0.015544,0.028429,-0.002436,0.004946,-0.012785,-0.007982,-0.007329,-0.001193,0.005607,0.010388,0.007919,-0.01063,-0.005865,0.004204,0.002835,0.006748,0.002395
Western_BalkansIA:Croatia_EIA:I23911,0.127482,0.140143,0.030547,-0.006137,0.035699,-0.001116,-0.000235,0.005769,0.014317,0.034078,-0.003897,0.007943,-0.015461,-0.008257,0.006786,-0.006364,-0.004563,0.005448,0.005028,-0.002751,-0.001747,-0.000742,-0.001479,-0.00241,-0.005029
Western_BalkansIA:Croatia_EIA:I23995,0.122929,0.147252,0.027153,0.001615,0.032621,0.00251,0.005405,-0.000231,0.008385,0.022597,-0.004547,0.006594,-0.016947,-0.003303,-0.003529,-0.00053,0.00352,0.006841,0.010182,-5e-04,0.000374,-0.004328,-0.004437,-0.004338,-0.000838
Western_BalkansIA:Croatia_EIA:I23996,0.125205,0.157407,0.03017,-0.005491,0.028621,-0.006414,0.00329,-0.000692,0.01493,0.025878,-0.00406,0.008542,-0.023042,-0.002064,-0.004207,-0.01843,-0.004042,0.005954,0.014958,-0.009755,-0.003619,-0.000495,-0.001602,-0.003133,0.001317
Western_BalkansIA:Croatia_EIA:I24638,0.136588,0.153345,0.032432,0.005491,0.039392,0.006693,0.004935,0.007154,0.012885,0.028976,-0.002761,0.01079,-0.019177,-0.009771,0.001493,-0.000928,0.007041,0.005701,0.009176,-0.004127,-0.005241,0.001484,0.005669,-0.007712,-0.000718
Western_BalkansIA:Croatia_EIA:I24639,0.124067,0.152329,0.032055,-0.000323,0.028928,0,0,0.006692,0.006749,0.022051,-0.001624,0.009591,-0.011744,-0.003165,-0.003257,-0.009281,-0.012256,0.001267,0.004525,-0.003126,-0.0141,0.005812,0.00456,-0.002771,0.001197
Western_BalkansIA:Croatia_EIA:I24879,0.12862,0.136081,0.032432,0.004845,0.035083,0.004183,0.001175,0.000692,0.002454,0.02934,-0.002273,0.007493,-0.02438,-0.009771,0.001357,0.01538,0.018906,-0.003167,0.006285,-0.001376,-0.001123,0.00643,-0.007518,0.00482,-0.005029
Western_BalkansIA:Croatia_EIA:I24882,0.133173,0.149283,0.035449,0,0.039084,-0.00753,0.00329,0.000231,0.002659,0.019681,0.003085,0.014087,-0.016055,-0.011973,0.002579,0.004508,0.005998,0.0019,0.006159,-0.004252,-0.003244,0.003215,0.005423,0.008073,-0.008382
Western_BalkansIA:Croatia_LIA:I18831,0.1161,0.149283,0.039221,-0.00323,0.035083,0.003904,0.001175,0.001154,0.00225,0.023326,-0.007145,0.016635,-0.020515,-0.016515,-0.003529,-0.000133,0.019949,-0.002914,0.00352,0.002251,-0.004492,0.000866,-0.001849,0.008314,-0.008143
Western_BalkansIA:Montenegro_MLBA:I13167,0.124067,0.153345,0.021873,-0.017442,0.023697,-0.011713,-0.005875,-0.002308,-0.003272,0.031527,-0.000812,0.009891,-0.014569,-0.01156,-0.005429,0.001061,0.008736,-0.000887,0.007668,-0.011631,-0.001248,0.000742,-0.001109,0.003856,-0.001796
Western_BalkansIA:Montenegro_MLBA:I13168,0.126344,0.150298,0.03017,-0.000969,0.029544,0.001394,-0.004935,0.002308,0.005727,0.028064,0.00747,0.005545,-0.017393,-0.007294,-0.011265,-0.002917,0.009779,0.00038,0.002765,-0.006628,-0.005989,0.010016,-0.00912,0.006507,-0.007664
Western_BalkansIA:Montenegro_MLBA:I13169,0.126344,0.149283,0.027907,-0.015504,0.03416,-0.006414,0.002115,0.000231,0.013703,0.025695,0.007307,0.004496,-0.014271,-0.011973,-0.011536,-0.004243,0.002608,-0.006968,0.009176,-0.003502,-0.012852,0.01014,-0.002218,-0.000964,-0.001557
Western_BalkansIA:Montenegro_MLBA:I13171,0.126344,0.146236,0.018479,-0.004845,0.027697,0.00251,-0.000705,-0.005307,0.003068,0.020775,-0.003248,0.01094,-0.016799,-0.017203,-0.0076,0.01432,0.015776,-0.002534,0.002263,-0.004752,-0.005865,0.00136,0.006162,0.007712,-0.00467
Western_BalkansIA:Montenegro_MLBA:I13172,0.129758,0.146236,0.035449,-0.014212,0.027082,-0.009203,-0.00423,0.003692,0.008999,0.027518,0.010068,0.006444,-0.013825,0.001376,-0.014522,-0.009414,-0.008084,-0.001014,0.013827,-0.016008,-0.009982,0.00272,0.000739,0.003133,-0.001676
Western_BalkansIA:Montenegro_MLBA:I13775,0.121791,0.150298,0.023004,-0.009044,0.024004,-0.005578,-0.00611,0.002769,0.003068,0.026789,-0.001461,0.009741,-0.018285,-0.008945,-0.013843,0.003182,0.008736,0.004054,0.009302,-0.008879,-0.008984,0.00643,-0.002465,0.004217,-0.002515
Western_BalkansIA:Montenegro_MLBA:I13778,0.12862,0.153345,0.034695,-0.006137,0.014156,0.000558,0.005875,0,0.003681,0.023508,0.012017,0.012139,-0.014717,-0.003716,-0.003936,-0.017369,-0.006258,0.004941,0.004274,-0.011005,0.002745,0.004328,0.000863,0.004217,0.002634
Western_BalkansIA:Montenegro_MLBA:I14498,0.129758,0.152329,0.038089,-0.012274,0.034468,-0.014781,-0.00329,0.001615,0.002659,0.027153,0.002923,0.013488,-0.004906,-0.00812,-0.007193,0.000663,0.001173,0.004561,0.00264,-0.003377,-0.010606,-0.000866,0.000739,0.007832,-0.006466
Western_BalkansIA:Montenegro_MLBA:I14500,0.124067,0.146236,0.018856,0.004199,0.020311,-0.008088,-0.001645,0.008769,0.003272,0.047017,0.015427,0.01154,-0.015609,-0.010459,-0.013843,0.013922,0.024903,-0.007475,0.004777,-0.015132,0.000998,0.006306,-0.006655,-0.001325,0.001676
Western_BalkansIA:Montenegro_MLBA:I14501,0.126344,0.155376,0.041483,-0.005168,0.026466,-0.008367,0.001175,0.001846,-0.001227,0.020228,0.003248,0.009591,-0.010109,-0.008257,-0.010993,-0.000796,0.005215,0.002914,0.008673,-0.016008,-0.009858,0.002844,-0.000986,0.016026,-0.003113
Slavic:Czech_Medieval:I20515,0.124067,0.132019,0.06675,0.08075,0.046778,0.031794,0.009165,0.010846,0.002863,-0.031162,-0.003735,-0.015286,0.019177,0.018029,-0.017372,-0.00716,0.004303,0.000633,-0.006913,0.004752,-0.010232,0.002226,0.005793,-0.003012,0.002275
CentralBalkansIA:Macedonia_IA:I7233,0.119514,0.158423,0.007165,-0.045866,0.028313,-0.015897,-0.002115,0.002308,0.014317,0.039545,0.006496,0.009591,-0.019921,-0.007982,-0.034202,-0.009679,0.008605,0.003041,0.00817,-0.013256,-0.007487,0.013973,-0.006532,0.002771,-0.005149
CentralBalkansIA:Macedonia_IA:I8112,0.12862,0.142174,0.026021,-0.011951,0.034468,-0.011992,-0.00188,0.001154,0.003272,0.023691,0.001624,0.008093,-0.020069,-0.01913,-0.006243,0.009679,0.016168,0.005828,0.003394,-0.007504,0.001123,-0.004204,-0.001109,0.003012,-0.008861
CentralBalkansIA:MK:I10379,0.129758,0.149283,0.024136,-0.029716,0.028313,-0.016176,0.005405,-0.000923,0.000205,0.03426,-0.003573,0.011839,-0.010258,-0.003853,-0.017236,0.0118,0.029597,-0.00038,0.006662,-0.002376,-0.018093,0.000866,-0.001232,0.007109,-0.004311
CentralBalkansIA:MK:I10381,0.136588,0.151314,0.026398,-0.030685,0.029852,0.000279,-0.001175,-0.002538,0.008181,0.049022,-0.000325,0,-0.015758,0.003441,-0.0095,-0.006232,0.006389,0.00152,0.004902,0.005002,-0.008859,-0.000495,0.003081,-0.001205,0.013651
CentralBalkansIA:MK:I10383,0.12862,0.15436,0.025267,-0.017119,0.032929,-0.010319,0.001175,-0.002308,0.002863,0.036447,-0.006658,0.012289,-0.016799,-0.015551,-0.013843,0.0118,0.024121,0.005701,0.00993,-0.002626,-0.008235,-0.001113,-0.00037,0.006145,-0.003473
CentralBalkansIA:MK:I10384,0.125205,0.155376,0.023759,-0.006137,0.022466,-0.001673,-0.000235,0,0.007363,0.025513,0.002598,0.007044,-0.017393,-0.006193,-0.010315,0.003182,0.004694,0.003801,0.003897,-0.016008,-0.013227,-0.00272,-0.007888,0.003133,-0.006706
CentralBalkansIA:MK:I10385,0.122929,0.148267,0.024136,-0.006137,0.02185,-0.001394,-0.00141,-0.002538,-0.005113,0.018406,0.009094,0.010041,-0.013379,0.001376,-0.001493,-0.012331,-0.005737,0.003294,0.005279,-0.009379,-0.007986,0.006554,0.001602,0.005422,0.00455
CentralBalkansIA:MK:I10387,0.117238,0.160454,0.014331,-0.020026,0.030775,-0.006693,-0.009165,0.001385,-0.000409,0.042643,0.005846,0.006594,-0.025718,-0.008257,-0.018594,-0.004243,-0.007562,0.003167,0.016969,-0.015132,-0.010357,0.009274,-0.002095,0.011568,-0.003233
CentralBalkansIA:MK:I10388,0.125205,0.156392,0.018479,-0.017119,0.027697,-0.008925,0.00188,-0.004154,0.005113,0.03098,0.00341,0.009741,-0.012785,-0.005643,-0.014115,-0.002121,0.008214,0.0019,0.004399,-0.012006,-0.010606,0.008656,0.007518,0.007953,-0.005868
CentralBalkansIA:MK:I10389,0.125205,0.149283,0.025644,-0.008398,0.016926,-0.011713,0.0047,-0.005307,-0.003068,0.014761,0.012017,-0.000749,-0.011298,-0.016239,-0.008279,0.002519,0.013951,0.009502,0.007416,0.001626,-0.019466,0.024854,0.000493,0.020123,-0.004191
CentralBalkansIA:Macedonia_BA:I7231,0.130897,0.148267,0.012068,-0.023902,0.025235,-0.009203,0.0047,-0.000923,0.008999,0.031709,0.00065,0.005395,-0.011596,-0.001239,-0.016694,-0.000265,0.004433,0.003674,0.008045,-0.01038,-0.018967,0.009398,0.000123,0.000602,0.000239
AnatolianIA:SyriaBA,0.0907738,0.1469979,-0.064959,-0.0934681,-0.0151566,-0.0349309,-0.0044357,-0.0092881,7.69e-05,0.009704,0.0095401,-0.004646,0.0118184,0.0036125,-0.0083976,0.0036296,1.64e-05,0.0038799,0.0061278,0.0013286,0.0052095,0.0033849,-0.0035742,0.0007981,-0.0001497
AnatolianIA:Turkey_IA,0.0990263,0.1381118,-0.0632933,-0.0713292,-0.0275437,-0.0181278,0.0003525,-0.0083842,-0.0219862,-6.08e-05,0.0031397,0.0004748,0.0003222,0.0008028,-0.0057455,0.0027402,0.0036508,-0.00057,0.0048183,-0.0046063,0.0014142,0.0038745,-0.0015818,-0.002691,-0.000978
I added Byzantine Era samples(obviously i removed any of them that are after 8th CE) and compared them against Peloponnese & Macedonia average from Davidski's list
 

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In the paper ViminaciumPirivoj:I15517 J-L70 is modeled as South Thracian or BA-IA Aegean, but in G25 it is flat out MENA. Something must have gotten mislabeled.
 
I added Byzantine Era samples(obviously i removed any of them that are after 8th CE) and compared them against Peloponnese & Macedonia average from Davidski's list

Reasonable percentages to me.
 
Vatya was i2 where the proto Urnfield core formed, we then see Tollense battle full of i2 and an r1a, Lusatians who also cremated mostly i2 and then the Lichtenstein cave Urnfield elites. Regions north west to this core on the map would have been mostly R-L2

I wonder how can you say it with straight face, when Vatya, Encrusted-Pottery and all related Tell cultures from Pannonia carrying I2a were utterly crushed by Tumulus invaders from Bavaria carrying R1b-L51.

It's obvious I2a survived and resisted somewhere more North among Lusatian Culture. Was it part of the Urnfield Complex, yeah, was it an all elite member like you claim? Far from it. Because, to begin with, Urnfield was not a coherent culture with an elite members ruling all of the complex. They were separate domains, separate people, sharing common values.
 
PS The most accurate Slavic proxy to date is the Polish mdv values.

Early_Medieval_Wielkopolska_2_Slavic,0.128873111,0.121524889,0.075131,0.067937667,0.042298222,0.030709,0.007050222,0.013358444,-0.000409,-0.023954,-0.002923,-0.010341,0.019391889,0.026087111,-0.009560778,-0.006600111,-0.004447556,-0.001998778,0.006564222,-0.005905667,-0.001774778,-0.007240444,0.007189444,-0.005502667,0.004111222
 
Reasonable percentages to me.
i replaced slavic proxy with the one provided by @PaleoRevenge (pic 1) and with kuline(pic 2)


still more reasonable percentages than then "Peloponnese 30-40% slavic" nonsense
 

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i replaced slavic proxy with the one provided by @PaleoRevenge (pic 1) and with kuline(pic 2)


still more reasonable percentages than then "Peloponnese 30-40% slavic" nonsense

I use the Polish one because the fit score improved. It actually decreased Slavic in Albanian in my model once I changed the Slavic proxy, from 27.5 to 24.4 and moved the difference to Germanic (2.7%). My own models are not too far off, your Peloponnese Slavic mixture is a little low, should be about 20-22%, Macedonian 30%. And those figures make sense based on topographic evidence and modern haplogroups. As one user pointed out the f-stat model is exaggerating, I think because they don't have better proxies at the high-resolution values they are using.
 
I use the Polish one because the fit score improved. It actually decreased Slavic in Albanian in my model once I changed the Slavic proxy, from 27.5 to 24.4 and moved the difference to Germanic (2.7%). My own models are not too far off, your Peloponnese Slavic mixture is a little low, should be about 20-22%, Macedonian 30%. And those figures make sense based on topographic evidence and modern haplogroups. As one user pointed out the f-stat model is exaggerating, I think because they don't have better proxies at the high-resolution values they are using.
When i compare these 2 regions using ancestral components(EEF,WSH etc) they have the same 2x difference so i think the 15-30 is more accurate than the 20-22 vs 30
 
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I just found this out, some of you might have known already. Davidski has changed the prior G25 of ancient samples because SNPs of all ancient databases were rerun using a new technique some many months back. I notice the old G25s which I am using are obsolete compared to values he has.
 

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