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For the lack of genetic evidence from Goth's genome, and lack of central and north european admixtures in Iberia, we are almost shooting blanks here."I believe that the reason is that the Goths stayed for many centuries in Eastern Europe and nearly two more centuries in the Balkans before invading Italy and Iberia and could have assimilated a lot of non-Germanic people, notably R1a and I2a1b Slavs and predominantly E1b1b, I2a1b and J2 Balkanic people."
I was reading some time ago that in Wielbark Culture there were examples of coexistance of distinct villages (different cultures) close by. It might be true that Goths didn't mix much with locals from Vistula region, whoever lived there at the time.This is incorrect Maciamo. I just read this thread, which was started one year ago, and found it interesting but with inaccuracies. I have read extensively on the Visigoths since my ancestors came from the same region they settled. If you would have read the history of the goths more carefully you would have known that they settled in Poland along the Vistula River (Weilbark Culture) and lived there for about 200-300 years, from about 100 BC to 200 AD (Jordanes who is unreliable claims 400 years). Either way the Slavic homeland has now been accepted by historians to have been in the Pripet Marshes around Belarus and western Ukraine. Thus they were never near the Goths. When the Goths migrated into "Oium" (southern Ukraine) in the second century AD they did meet the Slavs living in what is today western Ukraine, but they never settled there (Jordanes states that the Goths offered the Slavs battle but the Slavs refused). Therefore no Slav DNA was absorbed.
Even if there were no Slavs by Vistula, the population must have been rich in R1a, I assume.
Interesting thought. If Goths mingled with locals in Balkans, they should have picked up lots of J and E. Then again we are not sure if they did.When the Goths arrived at the steppes (somewhere near Uman or south of Kiev) they split up into several groups -- the West Goths went into what is now Moldova and eventually into southern Romania. The Visigoths lived there about 200 years. The Gepids, Heruli, and Rugii seem to have followed the Visigoths but then went into Hungary and Slovakia, (but some seem to have followed the Ostrogoths, since they are mentioned as raiding Greece and Anatolia). The Ostrogoths went and settled in what is now southern Ukraine, between the Prut and Dnepr River. There were never any Slavs in the Ukrainian steppes or in Moldova or Romania or Hungary at that time. There were only Sarmatians and Scythians in that region and the Goths did conquer them. So any DNA the Ostrogoths picked up was R1a from the Sarmatian and Scythian peoples. But I doubt they altered the DNA of the Ostrogoths. The Visigoths on the other hand absorbed 0% Slavic genes, but I will admit they must have absorbed some J2 and E1b1 from Greeks and other Balkan peoples.
The extermination of ethnicities is rather unlikely. From beginning of neolithic we can see substantial genetic continuation of locals in Europe. Cultures changed but people mostly stayed the same.In conclusion, I believe very little J2 and E1b1 or Slavic I2b were absorbed by the Goths. No slabs ever lived in the Balkans before the 7th century AD. And any people who lived in the southern Balkans who had J2 and E1b1 must have been negligible unless they lived in the Roman Empire. In other words, the Balkans were depopulated by neolithic peoples outside the Roman frontiers. Only Germanic and Dacians lived there. But since the Dacians were exterminated then only the Germans occupied it for 200-300 years.
I don't believe that invasions of Goths, Vandals or Swabians to Iberia exceeded more than 5 percent of total Iberian population, probably even less and Vandals left anyway. Not numerous enough to change local genetics or local culture.
Probably when future genetic research analyzes village by village (small regions), with bigger definition than what we have right now, we should start seeing some more germanic haplotypes popping up in Iberia in some enclaves.